Search

Unnatural disasters, such as floods and wildfires, are making many areas difficult to inhabit. For relocation to unfold in a safer and more equitable way, it must be done in a manner that (1) aligns with community values in each locality, (2) navigates legal barriers to managed retreat, and (3) creates blue-sky funding for adaptation, including managed retreat planning and implementation. This paper argues that developers continuing to build in climate vulnerable areas could and should help cover the risk of their actions. Part I lays out the legal importance of planning for retreat, as well as the need for initial funding for community-level planning and experienced personnel. Few scholars have explored options for municipalities to fund difficult conversations about and initial steps towards managing retreat. Thus, Part II explores how community benefit agreements between communities and developers in climate-vulnerable areas could play a role in bridging the gap between research and implementation. Part II also introduces the idea of a climate resilience development fee, which could provide the needed blue-sky funding to implement managed retreat. Part III analyzes the validity of a climate resilience impact fee in California and Florida, two states in which the consequences of climate change are severe enough for communities to begin to consider managed retreat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The low-lying Florida Everglades ecosystem maintains a delicate dynamic balance between freshwater and seawater. Hence, the Everglades is vulnerable to sharp salinity alterations induced by climate variations. The associated increase in surface seawater inundation and subsurface saltwater intrusion will reduce the availability of fresh groundwater. This would pose a risk to the Floridan surficial aquifer that provides potable water supply for millions of inhabitants in Florida. The increased salinity and decreased freshwater inputs will also alter coastal ecosystems by facilitating the establishment and encroachment of plants with higher salinity and flooding tolerance. In the Florida Everglades, coastal hardwood hammocks are particularly vulnerable to saltwater intrusion induced by sea level rise (SLR). This paper aims to project a possible change in the Coot Bay Hammock of Florida Everglades subject to gradually rising sea level. For this purpose, the simulation model MANTRA is enhanced to simulate the vegetation zonation pattern at a cross section of Coot Bay Hammock in this paper. MANTRA couples two USGS models MANHAM and SUTRA. Model simulation reveals SLR could cause a regime shift from the glycophytic hardwood hammocks to the halophytic mangroves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the earth's climate changes, the ability of breeders to select for traits within forage species that impart adaptability to these changes will be critical for the maintenance of grassland agricultural systems. Temperate ‐ tropical climate transition zones (between 27 and 31° N and S latitude) have proven to be ideal zones for breeding species with variable climate adaptation. Programs located in these regions have the advantage of exposure to alternating extreme warm and cold temperatures, drought and flood conditions, and a multitude of biotic pests including fungi, viruses, insects and nematodes. In this paper we will present examples of how forage breeding programs in north‐central Florida have capitalized on these distinct advantages for selection of cultivars with resiliency to changing climate variables. Breeding programs in red clover (Trifolium pratense L.) and annual ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam.) will be discussed as examples for moving cool season species into warmer climates. Species attributes that contribute to climate resiliency will be identified and described. The ability to identify small changes in genetic photoperiod responses in these regions, are illustrated as an advantage when the objective is development of earlier or later maturity. Transition zones also provide suitable environments for biotic stresses, from both tropical and temperate areas, including fungal diseases, nematodes, and insects, offering desirable field environments for screening and genetic improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the escalation of crises related to a car-dependent system – global warming, habitat fragmentation, and the continued depletion of nonrenewable resources – the governing assumptions behind automobility remain unchanged. In this paper, we argue the endurance and continued expansion of a transportation regime centered on automobility in the US represents a zombie policy formation, simultaneously reliant on and consolidated by crises. Examining governance of the proposed Osceola Parkway Extension in Central Florida, we unpack the rationalities governing expressway development and the connection between road infrastructure and continued suburban development. Even as environmental crises are articulated in US policy, the focus on alleviating crises of congestion continues to propel automobility forward. However, it is not functioning as it did in an earlier life. Once lauded as a sign of modernity, automobility is now cynically advanced to perpetuate road construction and suburban developments. Expressway authorities invoke environmental crises and employ a discourse of sustainability to justify road infrastructure expansion as necessary. Thus, expressways are posed as the solution to the crises that automobility causes. We argue this contradictory governance paradigm, which ostensibly should be dead but continues to move forward, represents a zombie automobility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is threatening an uncalculated number of archaeological sites globally, totaling perhaps hundreds of thousands of culturally and paleoenvironmentally significant resources. As with all archaeological sites, they provide evidence of humanity's past and help us understand our place in the present world. Coastal sites, clustered at the water's edge, are already experiencing some of the most dramatic damage due to anthropogenic climate change, and the situation is predicted to worsen in the future. In the face of catastrophic loss, organizations around the world are developing new ways of working with this threatened coastal resource. This paper uses three examples from Scotland, Florida, and Maine to highlight how new partnerships and citizen science approaches are building communities of practice to better manage threatened coastal heritage. It compares methods on either side of the Atlantic and highlights challenges and solutions. The approaches are applicable to the increasing number of heritage sites everywhere at risk from climate change; the study of coastal sites thus helps society prepare for climate change impacts to heritage worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While seldom integrated within coastal archaeological research in Southeastern North America, vegetation histories derived from palynological data offer valuable records of ancient landscape transformations driven by climatic flux, sea-level oscillations, and anthropogenic modifications. In this paper, we develop a paleo-historical-ecological reconstruction from preliminary analyses on fossil pollen assemblages preserved within marsh, hammock, and shell-midden soils at the Crystal River site (8CI1), a mound center on Florida's west-central coast occupied throughout the first millennium AD. When contextualized alongside paleoenvironmental records from western Florida and farther afield, our analysis suggests that the nature and timing of late-Holocene climatic changes varied little between different sub-regions of Florida's Gulf Coast, but also that manifestations of eustatic sea-level flux may have been highly localized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cutler, E.M.; Albert, M.R., and White, K.D., 2019. A low-cost shoreline dynamic simulation model for proposed beach nourishment and dune construction: Introducing a new feasibility analysis tool. Journal of Coastal Research, 35(4), 907–919. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Beach nourishment and dune construction are common coastal risk-management strategies for shoreline erosion in the United States. Federal involvement with such projects relies on cost–benefit analyses, which in turn rely on life-cycle models of shoreline processes, such as the Army Corps of Engineers' Beach-fx event-driven physical and economic coastal model. However, use of these models can be computationally and data intensive. Costs associated with conducting a feasibility analysis for beach nourishment and dune construction may leave a community with few resources to explore other risk-management options. This paper, therefore, presents a first-order, screening-level, low-cost dynamic model that delivers results approximately comparable with those from life-cycle models. Applying the model to three locations in Florida shows that simulated nourishment intervals are within 5 years of those predicted by Beach-fx, leading to a similar number of nourishments over a 50-year project life span. A discussion on how one could apply the model to other areas is also included. It is intended that this model could serve as a first-pass screening tool for communities considering beach nourishment and dune construction before they decide to invest in the more thorough, but costly and data-intensive, life-cycle model simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Low carbon cities. What, exactly, are we talking about? Are we talking about lifestyles, activities, or enterprises? Are we talking about individual or group voluntary behavior change or a policy framework that seeks to encourage behavior change by regulatory force? Faced with an enormous literature that mixes related topics like sustainable development/climate change/energy conservation/low carbon, it is not surprising to hear about local governments’ or planners’ “climate change initiatives”. This paper describes/reflects on how officials in Broward County, Florida, are dealing with issues of awareness, governance, measurement, and instruments for challenges arising from the combined threats of energy depletion and climate change. The overriding objective of this paper is to provide some pith for the discussion of planning for low carbon cities. To this end, we describe and reflect on the planning management responses of Broward County, Florida, USA – as an illustrative local government – in dealing with climate change challenges (CCC), energy conservation (EC) and greenhouse gas reduction (GHG). Both description and reflection are important as it is primarily the latter that provides the critical perspective necessary for assessing both potential and effect. The paper is organized into five sections. The first two sections address the “contextual” questions raised above: what is the level of knowledge and/or awareness among the collection of planners and/or local governments; and, what are/is appropriate responses of different levels of government. In the next section, we review overall levels of knowledge and awareness of basic science and policy dimensions, with particular attention paid to (a version of the) US planning profession. This is followed by a discussion of “theoretical” prescriptions for actions at different levels of government. The third and fourth sections focus on Broward County. The third section describes the county and presents a current measurement of its carbon footprint (at least at the level to which it can be measured). The fourth section describes the operational response of Broward County government. The final section returns to the original questions of knowledge and appropriate types of responses and argues that while the Broward response is generally effective in certain aspects, the current policy paradigm contains both strengths and weaknesses, which are generally outlined and discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper introduces and summarizes a series of articles on the potential impacts of sea level rise on Florida's natural and human communities and what might be done to reduce the severity of those impacts. Most of the papers in this special issue of Climatic Change were developed from presentations at a symposium held at Archbold Biological Station in January 2010, sponsored by the Florida Institute for Conservation Science. Symposium participants agreed that adaptation to sea level rise for the benefit of human communities should be planned in concert with adaptation to reduce vulnerability and impacts to natural communities and native species. The papers in this special issue discuss both of these categories of impacts and adaptation options. In this introductory paper, I place the subject in context by noting that that the literature in conservation biology related to climate change has been concerned largely about increasing temperatures and reduced moisture availability, rather than about sea level rise. The latter, however, is the most immediate and among the most severe impacts of global warming in low-lying regions such as Florida. I then review the content of this special issue by summarizing and interpreting the following 10 papers. I conclude with a review of the recommendations for research and policy that were developed from group discussions at the Archbold symposium. The main lesson that emerges from this volume is that sea level rise, combined with human population growth, urban development in coastal areas, and landscape fragmentation, poses an enormous threat to human and natural well-being in Florida. How Floridians respond to sea level rise will offer lessons, for better or worse, for other low-lying regions worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a comparative evaluation of methods for climate-based estimation of the net inflow rate into Lake Okeechobee, Fla. The estimated net inflow rate is used by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) to support the management and operations of the Lake Okeechobee hydrologic system. The first method evaluated in this paper (Croley) uses rainfall outlooks provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) to calculate a weighed average of historical inflow values for each month. The second method evaluated in this paper (SFWMD Empirical) uses a linear regression on statistics of historical data to predict the net inflow rate. These two methods were developed and have been used operationally by the SFWMD since 2000. Three new methods are presented and comparatively evaluated to gauge their ability in estimating net inflow rates. The first two of these methods are based on CPC issued forecasts in decile probability density format. The remaining method is based on a subsampling technique for “peer” wet/dry years in the historical record and is found to yield better results in a retrospective analysis. For extreme climatic events on the historical record, CPC rainfall outlooks are found not to yield a large enough shift in probabilities for forecasts to match observed net inflow rates; this is especially noticeable during El Niño Southern Oscillation events. Recommendations are made for potential improvements to climate-based net inflow rate estimation methods, particularly in regard to their ability to reproduce observed results for net inflow into Lake Okeechobee in the presence of an extreme climatic event, as well as over an extended climatological period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the United States, Florida ranks second among states for both value and land area of vegetable production, but this production is affected by periodic droughts. Florida has experienced at least one severe and widespread drought every decade since 1900, and climate change projections show that meteorological droughts will occur more often in the future. While drought and climate change affect the supply side, population growth is expected to affect the demand side of water availability. Given these threats to future water availability, the adoption of drought adaptation and water conservation measures is of increasing importance in Florida. Using a 2013 survey of Florida vegetable growers, this paper addresses two main components of this problem. First, we assess the current rates of adoption of drought adaptation measures. Second, we analyze which factors influence or impede the adoption of these measures to provide policy recommendations to increase adoption in the future. We find low rates of adoption of adaptations, ranging from 13% to 55%, and factors determining who adopts a given adaptation vary by adaptation. Factors can have opposite effects on the probability of adoption across different adaptations. Unlike most previous work, we find that growers with more education have lower rates of adoption of water augmentation measures, and lack of land ownership does not necessarily impede adoption of adaptations with large initial investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Over the past decades, the cost-effectiveness principle or a cost–benefit analysis has typically been employed as an assessment tool for the expansion of drinking water utilities. With changing public awareness of the inherent linkages between greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, the addition of this new consideration in the assessment regime has altered the landscape of the traditional evaluation matrix. This paper presents a comparative evaluation based on a suite of carbon footprint and cost data associated with 20 expansion alternatives for a systematic priority analysis of a drinking water infrastructure system in South Florida. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The combined influences of a change in climate patterns and the increased concentration of property and economic activity in hazard-prone areas has the potential of restricting the availability and affordability of insurance. This paper evaluates the premiums that private insurers are likely to charge and their ability to cover residential losses against hurricane risk in Florida as a function of (a) recent projections on future hurricane activity in 2020 and 2040; (b) insurance market conditions (i.e., soft or hard market); (c) the availability of reinsurance; and (d) the adoption of adaptation measures (i.e., implementation of physical risk reduction measures to reduce wind damage to the structure and buildings). We find that uncertainties in climate projections translate into a divergent picture for insurance in Florida. Under dynamic climate models, the total price of insurance for Florida (assuming constant exposure) could increase significantly by 2040, from $12.9 billion (in 1990) to $14.2 billion, under hard market conditions. Under lower bound projections, premiums could decline to $9.4 billion by 2040. Taking a broader range of climate change scenarios, including several statistical ones, prices could be between $4.7 and $32.1 billion by 2040. The upper end of this range suggests that insurance could be unaffordable for many people in Florida. The adoption of most recent building codes for all residences in the state could reduce by nearly half the expected price of insurance so that even under high climate change scenarios, insurance premiums would be lower than under the 1990 baseline climate scenario. Under a full adaptation scenario, if insurers can obtain reinsurance, they will be able to cover 100 % of the loss if they allocated 10 % of their surplus to cover a 100-year return hurricane, and 63 % and 55 % of losses from a 250-year hurricane in 2020 and 2040. Property-level adaptation and the maintenance of strong and competitive reinsurance markets will thus be essential to maintain the affordability and availability of insurance in the new era of catastrophe risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper describes the use of passive sampling systems and surrogate surfaces for monitoring atmospheric mercury (Hg) concentrations and dry deposition, respectively, in Florida,USA. Although this area has been reported to have low air concentrations, wet deposition values, reported by the Mercury Deposition Network, are some of the highest in the United States, and little is known about the magnitude of dry deposition to the region. To address this uncertainty, dry deposition of gaseous oxidized mercury (GOM) was estimated based on data collected using surrogate surfaces and through the application of a dry deposition model that utilized Tekran® Mercury Analyzer data for three sites (Davie near Fort Lauderdale, Tampa and Pensacola) over a year (July 2009-July 2010). Passive sampler systems for monitoring GOM and total gaseous mercury (TGM) concentrations were also deployed. In general, higher surrogate surface deposition, and GOM and TGM passive sampler uptake were observed at the DVE location. Across all sites, empirically derived dry deposition was higher than that determined using modeled values. Tekran® Instrument derived GOM concentrations, as well as modeled deposition rates, followed the same seasonal and spatial patterns as that measured by the samplers, however there were some spatial and temporal trends captured by the samplers that were not seen in the Tekran® derived data. Results indicate that these samplers may be applied to identify spatial and temporal trends in air Hg concentrations and potential deposition at sites with low and fairly constant GOM concentrations as reported by the Tekran® system (2–8pgm-3). When viewed collectively, trends in sampler and Tekran® derived data also suggest the potential for different forms of GOM in air. Using empirical and modeled values, dry deposition in Florida during the year of this study could account for 1.5 to 14% of total annual Hg deposition (wet+dry). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper is the result of ongoing research conducted at the University of North Florida, School of Engineering regarding carbon sequestration activities in Florida, USA. The issue of global climate change has led great interest to bear on reducing carbon emissions through new technologies such as geologic carbon sequestration. Engineers, scientists, and governing bodies across the globe have studied the costs associated with transporting carbon dioxide from point sources to repository sites but few have completed analysis for Florida. In 2007, Florida power plants accounted for over 143 million tonnes of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere. This report continues recently published cost analyses and transport optimization techniques for transporting carbon dioxide from power plants in Florida to proposed carbon repositories throughout the state. New transportation scenarios are introduced along with revised costs and transport optimization results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea level rise and changes in precipitation patterns due to climate change present a challenge to water resources engineers and planners in southeast Florida with regard to sustainable water supplies and Everglades restoration. Because over half of the urban areas of Miami-Dade and Broward counties, as well as portions of Palm Beach County (home to 5 million people), are at an elevation below 5 ft national geodetic vertical datum (ngvd), protection against sea level rise and coastal migration presents a challenge. Current approaches to water supply will not protect the resilience and prolong the sustainability of the region's water resources. In this paper, the authors outline the potential effects of sea level rise scenarios for coastal southeast Florida and develop a toolbox of options for adaptation for water, wastewater, and storm water utilities to apply. Any given option may not be appropriate for all utilities, and any given utility may deem there to be benefits to pursuing multiple strategies on a timeline in keeping with the latest estimates of sea level rise. The authors also developed milestones to trigger infrastructure investments, as climate changes may occur more rapidly or more slowly than currently projected. While applied to southeast Florida, many of these same toolbox items may be useful for other utilities located in coastal areas with low elevation, high water tables, and significant wet and dry seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change will influence environmental conditions including temperature, surface radiation, soil moisture, and sea level, and it will also significantly impact regional-scale hydrologic processes such as evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation, runoff, and snowmelt. The quantity and quality of water available for drinking and other domestic usage is also likely to be affected by changes in these processes. Consequently, it is necessary to assess and reflect upon the challenges ahead for water infrastructure and the general public in metropolitan regions. One approach to the problem is to use index-based assessment, forecasting and planning. The drought indices previously developed were not developed for domestic water supplies, and thus are insufficient for the purpose of such an assessment. This paper aims to propose and develop a “Metropolitan Water Availability Index (MWAI)” to assess the status of both the quantity and quality of available potable water sources diverted from the hydrologic cycle in a metropolitan region. In this approach, the accessible water may be expressed as volume per month or week (i.e., m3/month or m3/week) relative to a prescribed historical record, and such a trend analysis may result in final MWAI values ranging from −1 to +1 for regional water management decision making. The MWAI computation uses data and information from both historical point measurements and spatial remote-sensing based monitoring. Variables such as precipitation, river discharge, and water quality changes at drinking water plant intakes at specific locations are past “point” measurements in MWAI calculations. On the other hand, remote sensing provides information on both spatial and temporal distributions of key variables. Examples of remote-sensing images and sensor network technologies are in-situ sensor networks, ground-based radar, air-borne aircraft, and even space-borne satellites. A case study in Tampa Bay, Florida is described to demonstrate the short-term assessment of the MWAI concept at a practical level. It is anticipated that such a forecasting methodology may be extended for middle-term and long-term water supply assessment. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]