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The question whether emissions have decreased, during the last ten years or so, as much as suggested by the current inventories is addressed. We perform an array of modelling experiments using a European-scale chemistry-transport model, CHIMERE, nested in the global-scale CTM LMDz-INCA, in order to evaluate the evolution of ozone during the period 1990-2004, during which large reductions in NOx and VOC emissions are expected. The results are put in perspective of future emission reductions in Europe and the evolution of air quality in the next 30 years is estimated, on the basis of the actual global emission scenarios. We show in particular that while ozone acute episodes will be less intense, global emissions should enhance the background levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]