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Antarctica and Greenland hold enough ice to raise sea level by more than 65 m if both ice sheets were to melt completely. Predicting future ice sheet mass balance depends on our ability to model these ice sheets, which is limited by our current understanding of several key physical processes, such as iceberg calving. Large-scale ice flow models either ignore this process or represent it crudely. To model fractured zones, an important component of many calving models, continuum damage mechanics as well as linear fracture mechanics are commonly used. However, these methods have a large number of uncertainties when applied across the entire Antarctic continent because the models were typically tuned to match processes seen on particular ice shelves. Here we present an alternative, statistics-based method to model the most probable zones of the location of fractures and demonstrate our approach on all main ice shelf regions in Antarctica, including the Antarctic Peninsula. We can predict the location of observed fractures with an average success rate of 84 % for grounded ice and 61 % for floating ice and a mean overestimation error rate of 26 % and 20 %, respectively. We found that Antarctic ice shelves can be classified into groups based on the factors that control fracture location.

We present a theoretical framework that links Fermat's principle of least time to optimal transport theory via a cost function that enforces local transport. The proposed cost function captures the physical constraints inherent in wave propagation; when paired with specific mass distributions, it yields shortest paths in the considered media through the optimal transport plans. In the discrete setting, our formulation results in physically significant optimal couplings, whose off-diagonal entries identify shortest paths in both directed and undirected graphs. For undirected graphs with positive edge weights, commonly used to parameterize seismic media, our method provides solutions to the Eikonal equation consistent with those from the Dijkstra algorithm. For directed negative-weight graphs, corresponding to transportation cost matrices with negative entries, our approach aligns with the Bellman–Ford algorithm but offers considerable computational advantages. We also highlight potential research directions. These include the use of sparse cost matrices to reduce the number of unknowns and constraints in the considered transportation problem, and solving specific classes of optimal transport problems through the Dijkstra algorithm to enhance computational efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When working with hydrological data, the ability to quantify the similarity of different datasets is useful. The choice of how to make this quantification has direct influence on the results, with different measures of similarity emphasising particular sources of error (for example, errors in amplitude as opposed to displacements in time and/or space). The Wasserstein distance considers the similarity of mass distributions through a transport lens. In a hydrological context, it measures the 'effort' required to rearrange one distribution of water into the other. While being more broadly applicable, particular interest is payed to hydrographs in this work. The Wasserstein distance is adapted for working with hydrographs in two different ways, and tested in a calibration and 'averaging' of hydrographs context. This alternate definition of fit is shown successful in accounting for timing errors due to imprecise rainfall measurements. The averaging of an ensemble of hydrographs is shown suitable when differences among the members is in peak shape and timing, but not in total peak volume, where the traditional mean works well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The predictions of the theory of light propagation in weakly absorbing anisotropic minerals are tested against systematic measurements of the infrared absorbance spectra ofcalcite, olivine, and topaz oriented in both principal and random sections, using both polarized and unpolarized light. We show that if the linear polarized maximum absorbance is smaller than -0.3, or if the ratio of maximum and minimum absorbance is close to unity, then (1) the polarized maximum and minimum absorbances as well as the unpolarized absorbance are, to a good approximation, linearly proportional to thickness, regardless of the direction of the incident light; (2) the angular variation of polarized light absorption is indistinguishable from the theoretical predictions within the uncertainty of the measurements; (3) for any section the unpolarized absorbance is the mean of the polarized maximum and minimum absorbance; and (4) the average unpolarized absorbance of randomly oriented grains is one third of the Total Absorbance (defined as the sure of the three principal absorbances). Therefore, calibrations relating Total Absorbance to absorber concentration in minerals that have been developed from measurements with polarized light parallel to the principal axes may be applied to measurements with unpolarized light on a population of randomly oriented sections. We show that 10 such measurements are sufficient to achieve a petrologically useful accuracy. The method enables water concentrations in nominally anhydrous minerals to be determined from samples where the preparation of oriented specimens is not feasible, such as high-pressure experimental runs and fine-grained mantle xenoliths. The method may also be used for obtaining quantitative measurements on low-symmetry minerals. Keywords: Infrared spectroscopy, absorbance spectroscopy, unpolarized light, olivine, calcite, topaz, nominally anhydrous minerals

A new approach to the use of spectroscopic absorbance measurements for anisotropic crystals allows results to be extracted using unpolarized light incident on random crystal orientations. The theory of light propagation in anisotropic absorbing crystals is developed from Maxwell's equations to devise an expression for the transmittance of linearly polarized light traveling in an arbitrary direction in weakly absorbing media. This theory predicts the distribution of transmittance and absorbance as a function of direction and polarization angle of incident light. It is shown how a previously deduced empirical expression, commonly used in infrared spectroscopy, is a good approximation to the full theory under a wide range of conditions. The new theory shows that principal polarized absorbances correspond to the eigenvalues of an absorbance ellipsoid. An expression is derived for the unpolarized absorbance as a function of the angles describing incident light direction, [A.sub.unpol]([PHI], [PSI]), and the principal polarized absorbances, [A.sub.a], [A.sub.b], [A.sub.c] in an anisotropic crystal [A.sub.unpol]([PHI],[PSI]) = 1/2[[A.sub.a]([cos.sup.2][PHI][cos.sup.2][PSI} + [sin.sup.2][PSI]) + [A.sub.b]([cos.sup.2][PHI][sin.sup.2][PSI] + [cos.sup.2][PSI]) + [A.sub.c][sin.sup.2][PHI]]. Integration of this expression over all incident angles leads to a simple relationship between total measured unpolarized absorbance and the three principal polarized absorbances. Using this theory, a procedure is proposed for estimating both total ([A.sub.a] + [A.sub.b] + [A.sub.c]) and principal absorbances from spectroscopic measurements of absorbance using unpolarized light on a set of randomly oriented crystals. Keywords: Absorption index theory, anisotropic media, unpolarized light, spectroscopy

The application of the geometrical concept of 'natural neighbors' theory to the weighted residual method helps in solving partial differential equations on highly irregular evolving grids. This approach can effectively deal with problems involving large deformation and solid-fluid interactions on a deforming mesh. A two-dimensional example of a sinking elasto-plastic plate in a linear viscosity fluid is used to illustrate the updating of the mesh nodes and the connections between nodes during the calculation.