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Background Predictors of antidepressant response in older patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) need to be confirmed before they can guide treatment. Objective To create decision trees for early identification of older patients with MDD who are unlikely to respond to 12 weeks of antidepressant treatment, we analysed data from 454 older participants treated with venlafaxine XR (150-300 mg/day) for up to 12 weeks in the Incomplete Response in Late-Life Depression: Getting to Remission study. Methods We selected the earliest decision point when we could detect participants who had not yet responded (defined as >50% symptom improvement) but would do so after 12 weeks of treatment. Using receiver operating characteristic models, we created two decision trees to minimise either false identification of future responders (false positives) or false identification of future non-responders (false negatives). These decision trees integrated baseline characteristics and treatment response at the early decision point as predictors. Finding We selected week 4 as the optimal early decision point. Both decision trees shared minimal symptom reduction at week 4, longer episode duration and not having responded to an antidepressant previously as predictors of non-response. Test negative predictive values of the leftmost terminal node of the two trees were 77.4% and 76.6%, respectively. Conclusion Our decision trees have the potential to guide treatment in older patients with MDD but they require to be validated in other larger samples. Clinical implications Once confirmed, our findings may be used to guide changes in antidepressant treatment in older patients with poor early response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Endovascular therapy administered within 24 hours has been shown to improve outcomes for patients with acute ischemic stroke with large infarction, but the data on its cost-effectiveness are limited., Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of endovascular therapy for acute ischemic stroke with large infarction in China, the largest low- and middle-income country., Methods: A short-term decision tree model and a long-term Markov model were used to analyze the cost-effectiveness of endovascular therapy for patients with acute ischemic stroke with large infarction. Outcomes, transition probability, and cost data were obtained from a recent clinical trial and published literature. The benefit of endovascular therapy was assessed by the cost per quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained in the short and long term. Deterministic one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the results., Results: Compared with medical management alone, endovascular therapy for acute ischemic stroke with large infarction was found to be cost-effective from the fourth year onward and during a lifetime. In the long term, endovascular therapy yielded a lifetime gain of 1.33 QALYs at an additional cost of ¥73 900 (US$ 11 400), resulting in an incremental cost of ¥55 500 (US$ 8530) per QALY gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that endovascular therapy was cost-effective in 99.5% of the simulation runs at a willingness-to-pay threshold of ¥243 000 (3 × gross domestic product per capita of China in 2021) per QALY gained., Conclusions: Endovascular therapy for acute ischemic stroke with large infarction could be cost-effective in China., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background Endovascular therapy administered within 24 hours has been shown to improve outcomes for patients with acute ischemic stroke with large infarction, but the data on its cost-effectiveness are limited. Objective To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of endovascular therapy for acute ischemic stroke with large infarction in China, the largest low- and middle-income country. Methods A short-term decision tree model and a long-term Markov model were used to analyze the cost-effectiveness of endovascular therapy for patients with acute ischemic stroke with large infarction. Outcomes, transition probability, and cost data were obtained from a recent clinical trial and published literature. The benefit of endovascular therapy was assessed by the cost per quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained in the short and long term. Deterministic one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the results. Results Compared with medical management alone, endovascular therapy for acute ischemic stroke with large infarction was found to be cost-effective from the fourth year onward and during a lifetime. In the long term, endovascular therapy yielded a lifetime gain of 1.33 QALYs at an additional cost of ¥73 900 (US$ 11 400), resulting in an incremental cost of ¥55 500 (US$ 8530) per QALY gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that endovascular therapy was cost-effective in 99.5% of the simulation runs at a willingness-to-pay threshold of ¥243 000 (3 x gross domestic product per capita of China in 2021) per QALY gained. Conclusions Endovascular therapy for acute ischemic stroke with large infarction could be cost-effective in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Evidence has shown that endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) treatment improves clinical outcomes. Yet, its benefit remains uncertain in patients with large established infarcts as defined by ASPECTS (Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score) <6. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of EVT, compared with standard care (SC), in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients with ASPECTS 3-5. Methods An economic evaluation study was performed combining a decision tree and Markov model to estimate lifetime costs (2021 US$) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of AIS patients with ASPECTS 3-5. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), net monetary benefits (NMBs), and deterministic one-way and two-way sensitivity analyses were performed. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were also performed to evaluate the robustness of our model. Results Compared with SC, the cost-effectiveness analyses revealed that EVT yields higher lifetime benefits (2.20 QALYs vs 1.41 QALYs) with higher lifetime healthcare cost per patient ($285 861 vs $272 954). The difference in health benefits between EVT and SC was 0.79 QALYs, equivalent to 288 additional days of healthy life per patient. Even though EVT is more costly than SC alone, it is still cost-effective given better outcomes with ICER of $16 239/QALY. The probabilistic sensitivity analyses indicated that EVT was the most cost-effective strategy in 98.8% (9882 of 10 000) of iterations at the willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 per QALY. Conclusions The results of this study suggest that EVT is cost-effective in AIS patients with a large ischemic core (ASPECTS 3-5), compared with SC alone over the patient's lifetime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Delivery of acute stroke endovascular intervention can be challenging because it requires complex coordination of patient and staff across many different locations. In this proof-of-concept paper we (a) examine whether WiFi fingerprinting is a feasible machine learning (ML)-based real-time location system (RTLS) technology that can provide accurate real-time location information within a hospital setting, and (b) hypothesize its potential application in streamlining acute stroke endovascular intervention. Methods We conducted our study in a comprehensive stroke care unit in Melbourne, Australia that offers a 24hour mechanical thrombectomy service. ML algorithms including K-nearest neighbors, decision tree, random forest, support vector machine and ensemble models were trained and tested on a public WiFi dataset and the study hospital WiFi dataset. The hospital dataset was collected using the WiFi explorer software (version 3.0.2) on a MacBook Pro (AirPort Extreme, Broadcom BCM43xx1.0). Data analysis was implemented in the Python programming environment using the scikit-learn package. The primary statistical measure for algorithm performance was the accuracy of location prediction. Results ML-based WiFi fingerprinting can accurately predict the different hospital zones relevant in the acute endovascular intervention workflow such as emergency department, CT room and angiography suite. The most accurate algorithms were random forest and support vector machine, both of which were 98% accurate. The algorithms remain robust when new data points, which were distinct from the training dataset, were tested. Conclusions ML-based RTLS technology using WiFi fingerprinting has the potential to streamline delivery of acute stroke endovascular intervention by efficiently tracking patient and staff movement during stroke calls. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decision tree methodology is a commonly used data mining method for establishing classification systems based on multiple covariates or for developing prediction algorithms for a target variable. This method classifies a population into branch-like segments that construct an inverted tree with a root node, internal nodes, and leaf nodes. The algorithm is non-parametric and can efficiently deal with large, complicated datasets without imposing a complicated parametric structure. When the sample size is large enough, study data can be divided into training and validation datasets. Using the training dataset to build a decision tree model and a validation dataset to decide on the appropriate tree size needed to achieve the optimal final model. This paper introduces frequently used algorithms used to develop decision trees (including CART, C4.5, CHAID, and QUEST) and describes the SPSS and SAS programs that can be used to visualize tree structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The absolute right to refuse medical treatment, even if the reasons are irrational, is confined to competent adults. Children under 16 years can give legal consent to treatment in the absence of consent from those with parental responsibility. Children under 18 years do not, however, have an absolute right to consent, or refuse to consent, to treatment. The views of children assume increasing importance with age and maturity. Accident and emergency medical and nursing staff may face difficult decisions when children, or those with parental responsibility, refuse to consent to medical treatment. This paper presents guidelines designed to guide the decision making process in immediately or potentially life threatening conditions and in non-life-threatening conditions.

This article aims to give advice on how to identify and manage patients with syncope who are at risk of severe outcomes, that is, at risk of trauma, potentially life-threatening episodes or frequent recurrences reducing quality of life. The first step of syncope diagnostic assessment is to identify patients with cardiac syncope, and once established, these patients must receive the adequate mechanism-specific treatment. If cardiac syncope is unlikely, reflex (neurally mediated) syncope and orthostatic hypotension are the most frequent causes of transient loss of consciousness. For these presentations, efficacy of therapy is largely determined by the mechanism of syncope rather than its aetiology or clinical features. The identified mechanism of syncope should be carefully assessed and assigned either to hypotensive or bradycardic phenotype, which will determine the choice of therapy (counteracting hypotension or counteracting bradycardia). The results of recent trials indicate that 'mechanism-specific therapy' is highly effective in preventing recurrences. Established mechanism-specific treatment strategies include withdrawal of hypotensive drugs, applying fludrocortisone and midodrine for the hypotensive phenotype and cardiac pacing in the bradycardic phenotype. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Achondroplasia is associated with foramen magnum stenosis (FMS) and significant risk of morbidity and sudden death in infants. A sensitive and reliable method of detecting infants who require decompressive surgery is required. This study aims to describe the incidence and severity of FMS in an unselected, sequential series of infants using a novel MRI score and retrospectively correlate severity with clinical examination and cardiorespiratory sleep (CRS) studies.Methods: The Achondroplasia Foramen Magnum Score (AFMS) was developed and scores were retrospectively correlated with clinical and CRS data over a 3-year period.Results: Of 36 infants (M:F, 18:18), 2 (5.6%) did not have FMS (AFMS0); 13 (36.1%) had FMS with preservation of the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) spaces (AFMS1); 3 (8.3%) had FMS with loss of the CSF space but no spinal cord distortion (AFMS2); 13 (36.1%) had FMS with flattening of the cervical cord without signal change (AFMS3); and 5 (13.9%) had FMS resulting in cervical cord signal change (AFMS4). Mean Total Apnea and Hypopnea Index (TAHI) for AFMS0-4 was 3.4, 6.41, 2.97, 10.5 and 25.8, respectively. Severe TAHI had a specificity of 89% but only a 59% sensitivity for AFMS3-4. Neurological examination was normal in 34/36 (94%) patients. Overall, 9/36 (25%) infants required neurosurgery with minimal surgical complications.Conclusions: Clinical examination and CRS have a low sensitivity for predicting the effects of foramen stenosis on the spinal cord. Routine screening with MRI using AFMS can aid in detecting early spinal cord changes and has the potential to reduce infant morbidity and mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Premature ventricular complexes (PVCs) are often observed in patients presenting with heart failure with a reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). PVCs may in some patients be considered to be the cause of heart failure, while in others it may be the consequence of heart failure. PVCs are important prognostic markers in HFrEF. The uncertainty whether PVCs are the cause or effect in HFrEF impacts clinical decision making. In this review, we discuss the complexity of the cause-effect relationship between PVCs and HFrEF. We demonstrate a workflow with the use of a trial period of amiodarone that may discover whether the reduced LVEF is reversible, the symptoms are due to PVCs and whether biventricular pacing can be increased by the reduction of PVCs. The use of non-invasive and invasive (high-density) mapping techniques may help to improve accuracy and efficacy in the treatment of PVC, which will be demonstrated. With these results in mind, we conclude this review highlighting the future directions for PVC research and treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Total hip and total knee arthroplasty) remain important interventions to treat symptomatic knee and hip damage in patients with rheumatoid arthritis, with little change in utilisation rates despite the increasingly widespread use of potent conventional synthetic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (csDMARDs) and targeted DMARDs including Janus kinase inhibitors and biologics. The majority of patients are receiving these immunosuppressing medications and glucocorticoids at the time they present for arthroplasty. There is minimal randomised controlled trial data addressing the use of DMARDs in the perioperative period, yet patients and their physicians face these decisions daily. This paper reviews what is known regarding perioperative management of targeted and csDMARDs and glucocorticoids., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: Patient evaluation before cardiac resynchronisation therapy (CRT) remains heterogeneous across centres and it is suspected a proportion of patients with unfavourable characteristics proceed to implantation. We developed a unique CRT preassessment clinic (CRT PAC) to act as a final review for patients already considered for CRT. We hypothesised that this clinic would identify some patients unsuitable for CRT through updated investigations and review. The purpose of this analysis was to determine whether the CRT PAC led to savings for the National Health Service (NHS)., Methods: A decision tree model was made to evaluate two clinical pathways; (1) standard of care where all patients initially seen in an outpatient cardiology clinic proceeded directly to CRT and (2) management of patients in CRT PAC., Results: 244 patients were reviewed in the CRT PAC; 184 patients were eligible to proceed directly for implantation and 48 patients did not meet consensus guidelines for CRT so were not implanted. Following CRT, 82.4% of patients had improvement in their clinical composite score and 57.7% had reduction in left ventricular end-systolic volume ≥15%. Using the decision tree model, by reviewing patients in the CRT PAC, the total savings for the NHS was £966 880. Taking into consideration the additional cost of the clinic and by applying this model structure throughout the NHS, the potential savings could be as much as £39 million., Conclusions: CRT PAC appropriately selects patients and leads to substantial savings for the NHS. Adopting this clinic across the NHS has the potential to save £39 million., Competing Interests: Competing interests: Outside of the submitted work, BSS is funded by NIHR and JG has received project funding from Rosetrees Charitable Trust. JG and BP have received fellowship funding from Abbott. BJS has received support from a British Heart Foundation project grant [PG/16/108/32593]. CAR receives research funding and/or consultation fees from Abbott, Medtronic, Boston Scientific, Spectranetics and MicroPort outside of the submitted work., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives: Demonstrate the application of decision trees--classification and regression trees (CARTs), and their cousins, boosted regression trees (BRTs)--to understand structure in missing data. Setting: Data taken from employees at 3 different industrial sites in Australia. Participants: 7915 observations were included. Materials and methods: The approach was evaluated using an occupational health data set comprising results of questionnaires, medical tests and environmental monitoring. Statistical methods included standard statistical tests and the 'rpart' and 'gbm' packages for CART and BRT analyses, respectively, from the statistical software 'R'. A simulation study was conducted to explore the capability of decision tree models in describing data with missingness artificially introduced. Results: CART and BRT models were effective in highlighting a missingness structure in the data, related to the type of data (medical or environmental), the site in which it was collected, the number of visits, and the presence of extreme values. The simulation study revealed that CART models were able to identify variables and values responsible for inducing missingness. There was greater variation in variable importance for unstructured as compared to structured missingness. Discussion: Both CART and BRT models were effective in describing structural missingness in data. CART models may be preferred over BRT models for exploratory analysis of missing data, and selecting variables important for predicting missingness. BRT models can show how values of other variables influence missingness, which may prove useful for researchers. Conclusions: Researchers are encouraged to use CART and BRT models to explore and understand missing data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Responders to cardiac resynchronisation therapy whose device has a defibrillator component and who do not receive a therapy in the lifetime of the first generator have a very low incidence of appropriate therapy after box change. We investigated the cost implications of using a risk stratification tool at the time of generator change resulting in these patients being reimplanted with a resynchronisation pacemaker.Methods: A decision tree was created using previously published data which had demonstrated an annualised appropriate defibrillator therapy risk of 2.33%. Costs were calculated at National Health Service (NHS) national tariff rates (2016-2017). EQ-5D utility values were applied to device reimplantations, admissions and mortality data, which were then used to estimate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) over 5 years.Results: At 5 years, the incremental cost of replacing a resynchronisation defibrillator device with a second resynchronisation defibrillator versus resynchronisation pacemaker was £5045 per patient. Incremental QALY gained was 0.0165 (defibrillator vs pacemaker), resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £305 712 per QALYs gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis resulted in an ICER of £313 612 (defibrillator vs pacemaker). For reimplantation of all patients with a defibrillator rather than a pacemaker to yield an ICER of less than £30 000 per QALY gained (current NHS cut-off for approval of treatment), the annual arrhythmic event rate would need to be 9.3%. The budget impact of selective replacement was a saving of £2 133 985 per year.Conclusions: Implanting low-risk patients with a resynchronisation defibrillator with the same device at the time of generator change is not cost-effective by current NHS criteria. Further research is required to understand the impact of these findings on individual patients at the time of generator change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction Cigarette smoking causes many chronic diseases that are costly and result in frequent hospitalisation. Hospital-initiated smoking cessation interventions increase the likelihood that patients will become smoke-free. We modelled the cost-effectiveness of the Ottawa Model for Smoking Cessation (OMSC), an intervention that includes in-hospital counselling, pharmacotherapy and posthospital follow-up, compared to usual care among smokers hospitalised with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), unstable angina (UA), heart failure (HF), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Methods We completed a cost-effectiveness analysis based on a decision-analytic model to assess smokers hospitalised in Ontario, Canada for AMI, UA, HF, and COPD, their risk of continuing to smoke and the effects of quitting on re-hospitalisation and mortality over a 1-year period. We calculated short-term and long-term cost-effectiveness ratios. Our primary outcome was 1-year cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Results From the hospital payer's perspective, delivery of the OMSC can be considered cost effective with 1-year cost per QALY gained of $C1386, and lifetime cost per QALY gained of $C68. In the first year, we calculated that provision of the OMSC to 15 326 smokers would generate 4689 quitters, and would prevent 116 rehospitalisations, 923 hospital days, and 119 deaths. Results were robust within numerous sensitivity analyses. Discussion The OMSC appears to be cost-effective from the hospital payer perspective. Important consideration is the relatively low intervention cost compared to the reduction in costs related to readmissions for illnesses associated with continued smoking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaluating someone's mental capacity in relation to advance decisions to refuse treatment can be a challenge for health professionals, particularly in cases of dementia. The Mental Capacity Act 2005 clarifies and formalises the functional assessment of capacity. It aims to protect individual autonomy and counter the assumption that, just because an individual does not have capacity regarding one aspect of their life, it does not mean they do not have capacity to make any decisions at all. This article discusses the ethical and legal frameworks for approaching decision-making processes in relation to a complex case of an adult with dementia who, before its onset, drew up an advance decision to refuse treatment to be implemented in the event that she lost mental capacity for decision-making. However, when the time came her family and carers wanted her GP to ignore the advance refusal document. In such cases it is important that health professionals aim to carry out best interest-based decision-making within the wider context of patients' lives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A paediatric clinical trial conducted in a developing country is likely to encounter conditions or illnesses in participants unrelated to the study. Since local healthcare resources may be inadequate to meet these needs, research clinicians may face the dilemma of deciding when to provide ancillary care and to what extent. The authors propose a model for identifying ancillary care obligations that draws on assessments of urgency, the capacity of the local healthcare infrastructure and the capacity of the research infrastructure. The model lends itself to a decision tree that can be adapted to the local context and resources so as to provide procedural guidance. This approach can help in planning and establishing organisational policies that govern the provision of ancillary care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Snus (a form of smokeless tobacco) is less dangerous than cigarettes. Some health professionals argue that snus should be promoted as a component of a harm reduction strategy, while others oppose this approach. Major US tobacco companies (RJ Reynolds and Philip Morris) are marketing snus products as cigarette brand line extensions. The population effects of smokeless tobacco promotion will depend on the combined effects of changes in individual risk with population changes in tobacco use patterns. OBJECTIVE: To quantitatively evaluate the health impact of smokeless tobacco promotion as part of a harm reduction strategy in the US. METHODS: A Monte Carlo simulation of a decision tree model of tobacco initiation and use was used to estimate the health effects associated with five different patterns of increased smokeless tobacco use. RESULTS: With cigarette smoking having a health effect of 100, the base case scenario (based on current US prevalence rates) yields a total health effect of 24.2 (5% to 95% interval 21.7 to 26.5) and the aggressive smokeless promotion (less cigarette use and increased smokeless, health-concerned smokers switching to snus, smokers in smokefree environments switching to snus) was associated with a health effect of 30.4 (5% to 95% interval 25.9 to 35.2). The anticipated health effects for additional scenarios with lower rates of smokeless uptake also overlapped with the base case. CONCLUSIONS: Promoting smokeless tobacco as a safer alternative to cigarettes is unlikely to result in substantial health benefits at a population level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a case study of a medical director who dealt with and offering advice for doctors on poor performance. Reaction of the director to an email from a staff grade in the accident and emergency department complaining that a doctor in pediatrics has upset a junior nursing sister; Illustration of the incident decision tree based on the work of professor James Reason; Importance of written signed statements in order to take formal action.

The recent British Thoracic Society guidelines recommend that surgical mortality should not be greater than 8% for pneumonectomy and 4% for lobectomy. These cut offs are advanced as guidelines to inform decision making as to whether or not patients with operable lung cancer should be offered surgery. They have been developed from a notion of what acceptable surgical mortality should be. The planning of care for patients with lung cancer involves making choices between different treatments with different outcomes. While it is accepted that the probability of these outcomes is likely to differ among patients, individual patient preferences for them are also likely to vary. Fixed cut offs for surgical mortality mean ignoring this variation. Decision analysis can be used to assist in the complex task of integrating clinical characteristics and varying patient preferences. By considering high risk patients with potentially curable stage Ia non-small cell lung cancer, it is shown that decision analysis has the potential to illuminate decision making and guideline development within the field of cancer care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: The need for comparative effectiveness (CE) data continues to grow, fuelled by market demand as well as health reform. There may be an assumption that new drugs result in improved efficacy compared with the standard of care, therefore warranting premium prices. Gout treatment has recently become controversial, as expensive new drugs enter the market with limited CE data., Methods: The authors reviewed published clinical trials and conducted a cost effectiveness analysis on a new drug (febuxostat) versus the standard (allopurinol) to illustrate the limitations in using these data to inform evidence-based decision-making., Findings: Although febuxostat trials included allopurinol as a comparator, methodological limitations make comparative effectiveness evaluations difficult. However, when available trial data were input to a decision analytic model, the authors found that a significant reduction in febuxostat cost would be required in order for it to dominate allopurinol in cost effectiveness analysis. This case exemplifies the challenges of using clinical trial data in comparative and cost effectiveness analyses.

Objectives: To assess how much competitive sport contributes to sudden cardiac death (SCD) in young athletes and the impact on population health if this group were to be screened in the UK., Methods: Using reported and imputed incidence rates of SCD in athletes and non-athletes and false-negative and false-positive test rates reported in three key Italian screening studies, the authors calculated the population and attributable risk fractions of SCD in young athletes and the total population (athletes and non-athletes) aged 12-35 years before and after screening; the number of athletes needed to screen (NNS) to prevent one SCD and the sensitivity and the specificity of screening with electrocardiogram. Using these parameters, the authors developed a decision tree model based on the UK population aged 12-35 years to estimate the annual number of SCDs, the expected number of screening and diagnostic tests and the number of athletes disqualified from competitive sport per SCD prevented., Results: Participation in competitive athletics contributes to 81.9% (62.4% to 91.6%) of SCD in athletes but only 26.6% (-20.3% to 55.8%) in the total population. After screening, the contribution in the total population falls to 7.2% (-10.7% to 22.4%). The NNS is 38 151 (20 534 to 267 380). A UK screening programme would result in 1 520 021 young athletes being screened, with 140 361 referred for diagnosis. Of an expected 196 SCDs per year, 40 (6 to 74) would be prevented. For every life saved, 791 athletes would be disqualified., Conclusions: The impact of screening on reducing SCD in young athletes is only modest and would be achieved with significant harms to population health.

MRI with surface coils is currently the preferred method for evaluating degenerative cervical spine disease. The differentiation between soft disc herniation and osteophytic spurs is not always obvious, however, on a 0.5 Tesla unit. The procedure of choice for soft disc herniation, MRI on a 0.5 T superconducting system associated with plain radiography of the cervical spine, in selecting patients for anterior cervical discectomy without interbody fusion (ACD), was evaluated. This prospective study comprised 100 patients with cervical radicular symptoms, not subsiding after conservative treatment. Plain radiographs were obtained for all patients. Patients without spinal instability, spondylosis, or major osteophytes on plain radiographs and without clinical findings of myelopathy underwent MRI (n = 59) on a 0.5 Tesla superconducting system. The other 41 patients underwent CT myelography. On MRI, herniation of a cervical soft disc was seen in 55 patients and the localisation corresponded well with the clinical symptoms. CT myelography showed a foraminal herniation in one of four selected patients with negative MRI. Fifty of 55 patients underwent ACD. All herniations were confirmed at operation, but in two patients there were important foraminal spurs not seen on MRI. It is concluded that 0.5 T MRI combined with plain radiographs offers an accurate, non-invasive test in the assessment of selected patients with cervical radiculopathy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To assess an established protocol for managing children with irritable hip in the accident and emergency department., Methods: Retrospective seven year follow up of all children managed under an established hip pain protocol. The main outcome measure was of failure of the protocol to identify serious pathology., Results: A total of 103 children met the criteria for assessment using the protocol. Sixty were allowed home, and outpatient follow up arranged. All of these children except one were diagnosed as having transient synovitis. This child had Perthes' disease and was diagnosed at first presentation. Forty three children were admitted, with eight subsequently having a diagnosis other than transient synovitis of the hip. It was possible to review 80 children seven years later. Of these children no long term problems were encountered., Conclusion: The protocol used in the department for children with irritable hip is successful in identifying those children with transient synovitis of the hip, or other benign causes, and therefore not requiring hospital admission. Long term follow up showed that no serious pathology was missed.

Background We estimated the cost-effectiveness of universal DNA screening for Lynch syndrome (LS) among newly diagnosed patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) followed by cascade screening of relatives from the Swiss healthcare system perspective. Methods We integrated decision trees with Markov models to calculate incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year saved by screening all patients with CRC (alternative strategy) compared with CRC tumour-based testing followed by DNA sequencing (current strategy). Results The alternative strategy has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of CHF65 058 compared with the current strategy, which is cost-effective according to Swiss standards. Based on annual incidence of CRC in Switzerland, universal DNA screening correctly identifies all 123 patients with CRC with LS, prevents 17 LS deaths and avoids 19 CRC cases, while the current strategy leads to 32 false negative results and 253 LS cases lost to follow-up. One way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that universal DNA testing is cost-effective in around 80% of scenarios, and that the cost of DNA testing and the number of invited relatives per LS case determine the cost-effectiveness ratio. Conclusion Results can inform policymakers, healthcare providers and insurance companies about the costs and benefits associated with universal screening for LS and cascade genetic testing of relatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Endovascular thrombectomy (ET) is the standard of care for treatment of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) secondary to large vessel occlusion. The elderly population has been under-represented in clinical trials on ET, and recent studies have reported higher morbidity and mortality in elderly patients than in their younger counterparts. Objective To use machine learning algorithms to develop a clinical decision support tool that can be used to select elderly patients for ET. Methods We used a retrospectively identified cohort of 110 patients undergoing ET for AIS at our institution to train a regression tree model that can predict 90-day modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores. The identified algorithm, termed SPOT, was compared with other decision trees and regression models, and then validated using a prospective cohort of 36 patients. Results When predicting rates of functional independence at 90 days, SPOT showed a sensitivity of 89.36% and a specificity of 89.66% with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.952. Performance of SPOT was significantly better than results obtained using National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, Alberta Stroke Program Early CT score, or patients' baseline deficits. The negative predictive value for SPOT was >95%, and in patients who were SPOT-negative, we observed higher rates of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage after thrombectomy. With mRS scores prediction, the mean absolute error for SPOT was 0.82. Conclusions SPOT is designed to aid clinical decision of whether to undergo ET in elderly patients. Our data show that SPOT is a useful tool to determine which patients to exclude from ET, and has been implemented in an online calculator for public use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background To develop and assess the technical validity of new computer-aided diagnostic software (CAD) for automated analyses of optical coherence tomography (OCT) images for the purpose of screening for neovascular age-related macular degeneration. Methods Artificial visual techniques were used to develop the CAD in two steps: normalisation and feature vector extraction from OCT images; and training and classification by means of decision trees. Technical validation was performed by a retrospective study design based on OCT images randomly extracted from clinical charts. Images were classified as normal or abnormal to serve for screening purposes. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values and negative predictive values were obtained. Results The CAD was able to quantify image information by working in the perceptually uniform hueesaturationevalue colour space. Particle swarm optimisation with Haar-like features is suitable to reveal structural features in normal and abnormal OCT images. Decision trees were useful to characterise normal and abnormal images using feature vectors obtained from descriptive statistics of detected structures. The sensitivity of the CAD was 96% and the specificity 92%. Conclusions This new CAD for automated analysis of OCT images offers adequate sensitivity and specificity to distinguish normal OCT images from those showing potential neovascular age-related macular degeneration. These results will enable its clinical validation and a subsequent cost-effectiveness assessment to be made before recommendations are made for populationscreening purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To (i) identify predictors of outcome for the physiotherapy management of shoulder pain and (ii) enable clinicians to subgroup people into risk groups for persistent shoulder pain and disability.Methods: 1030 people aged ≥18 years, referred to physiotherapy for the management of musculoskeletal shoulder pain were recruited. 810 provided data at 6 months for 4 outcomes: Shoulder Pain and Disability Index (SPADI) (total score, pain subscale, disability subscale) and Quick Disability of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (QuickDASH). 34 potential prognostic factors were used in this analysis.Results: Four classification trees (prognostic pathways or decision trees) were created, one for each outcome. The most important predictor was baseline pain and/or disability: higher or lower baseline levels were associated with higher or lower levels at follow-up for all outcomes. One additional baseline factor split participants into four subgroups. For the SPADI trees, high pain self-efficacy reduced the likelihood of continued pain and disability. Notably, participants with low baseline pain but concomitant low pain self-efficacy had similar outcomes to patients with high baseline pain and high pain self-efficacy. Cut-off points for defining high and low pain self-efficacy differed according to baseline pain and disability. In the QuickDASH tree, the association between moderate baseline pain and disability with outcome was influenced by patient expectation: participants who expected to recover because of physiotherapy did better than those who expected no benefit.Conclusions: Patient expectation and pain self-efficacy are associated with clinical outcome. These clinical elements should be included at the first assessment and a low pain self-efficacy response considered as a target for treatment intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]