1. Responding to shocks : cash, transfers and imagery
- Author
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Pople, Ashley and Dercon, Stefan
- Subjects
Resilience ,Economics--Psychological aspects ,Development ,Economics - Abstract
This thesis consists of three standalone chapters that speak to the broad theme of responding to shocks in low- and middle-income countries. Chapter 1 investigates the impact of receiving cash transfers in anticipation of an extreme climate disaster, thereby enabling low-income households to cope with the shock on their own terms. We present quasi-experimental evidence showing the effectiveness of a timelier forecast-based cash transfer delivered to low-income households just before the peak of severe flooding in Bangladesh. We find that the `anticipatory' cash transfer enabled households to change their behaviour and improve their welfare, both during the flood and three months after the intervention. Chapter 2 explores the role of mental imagery in overcoming trauma - largely induced by exposure to violence - by fostering the ability to imagine the future. We design and test a ten-session entrepreneurship training curriculum that teaches mental imagery in business decision making through a randomised control trial in Colombia. We find that mental imagery can be taught as a skill and those who receive imagery training improve their earnings, relative to those who receive a placebo entrepreneurship training. Chapter 3 explores the interaction between public and private cash transfers, recognising that social protection may interact with existing coping strategies. I estimate the extent to which receiving an old-age pension crowds out remittances in post-Apartheid South Africa, using a regression discontinuity design. I find evidence of substantial crowding out in a middle-income country context: for every 1 rand of pension received, 0.22 rand of remittances are displaced on average.
- Published
- 2022