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This paper aims to assess whether the male-to-female ratio in life expectancy is driven by cross-national long-period common trends. If a common trend is detected across a group of countries, then a model taking it into account should provide a more reliable description of the process in scope. We model the gender life expectancy ratio of a set of countries as a multivariate time series. Since our study includes data from 25 countries that are characterized by different longevity patterns, we preliminarily aggregate populations in clusters. Once we verify that all these series are non-stationary, we apply Johansen's cointegration rank test to each cluster. The idea behind this methodology is to detect any stationary linear combination out of nonstationary variables, which implies that the series share some underlying long-period equilibrium relationships. If the cointegration rank test provides evidence for any cointegrating relationship, we further check whether estimated linear combinations of the single series - namely the error correction terms - are stationary. Finally, we measure forecasting errors with respect to the 10-year testing set. At least for two clusters over six, we find enough evidence to outline some cointegrating relationships in the male-to-female life expectancy ratio. This result leads us to assume that an underlying long-period equilibrium in life expectancy gender differentials does exist among the single countries included in these clusters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Sustainable development is considered a key factor in addressing environmental issues, global inequalities and poverty. This study aims to investigate the impact of stock market indicators on sustainable development across 16 emerging markets from 2003 to 2020. Design/methodology/approach: The research uses causality and cointegration analyses to explore the relationships between stock market indicators and sustainable development. Findings: Univariate causality analysis reveals a bidirectional causal relationship between the stock market turnover ratio and sustainable development, as well as a unidirectional relationship from sustainable development to stock market capitalization and total value traded. Panel-level cointegration analysis suggests that only stock market capitalization has a weak positive influence on sustainable development. However, the impact of stock market indicators on sustainable development varies significantly among countries, as revealed by country-level cointegration analysis. Research limitations/implications: While this study provides valuable insights, it is not without limitations. The findings are limited to the selected emerging markets and the specified timeframe (2003–2020). The complexity of factors influencing sustainable development suggests the need for further exploration in diverse contexts. Practical implications: Understanding the nuanced relationships between stock market indicators and sustainable development can offer valuable insights for policymakers, investors and stakeholders. Originality/value: This research contributes to the existing literature by examining the multifaceted connections between stock market indicators and sustainable development, focusing on country-specific causality relationships. The study highlights the reciprocal nature of this relationship, where financial market development can both influence and be influenced by a country's progress toward sustainability. This approach provides a more nuanced understanding of the complex interaction between stock market maturity and sustainability goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to explore the relationship between food exports and economic growth in Italy. To achieve this objective, we utilize annual data spanning from 1990 to 2021, employing cointegration analysis and the ARDL Model. The empirical findings reveal a positive impact of food exports on long-term economic growth. However, despite this positive correlation, our examination of stylized facts uncovers a downward trend in the share of food exports over the analysis period. While acknowledging the role of food exports as a contributor to economic growth, this underscores the need for the Italian authorities to acknowledge the sector’s significance and implement new economic policies and trade reforms to fortify this area of economic activity.

As a result of globalization, the removal of barriers to international capital has created a source for countries in need of capital. These capital sources referred to as short-term capital movements or simply portfolio investments, provide significant benefits to the economy when they first enter the country. Investment instruments are instruments used by those who have excess capital in their hands in order to make a profit. The aim of this study is to reveal the cointegration relationships between portfolio investments and investment instruments in Türkiye. The motivation for this study is that there are few studies in the literature that examine cointegration relationships between all investment instruments and portfolio investments. The study comprises quarterly data covering the period from 2009Q1 to 2023Q2. The data has been obtained from the CBRT EVDS system. According to the results of ARDL cointegration analysis; there is a cointegration relationship between the variables both in the short and long run. According to these results, in Türkiye, investment instruments do not significantly affect portfolio investments, but portfolio investments significantly affect investment instruments.

How to finance health services is one of the most important questions that every country seeks the answer to. Technological developments in the field of health, the discovery of new treatment methods, the increase in drug costs and the increase in the average life expectancy have led to increases in the health expenditures of countries. Private health insurance, which is preferred when government health services are inadequate or limited in scope, is an important tool to facilitate individuals' access to health services and reduce their financial risks. Private health insurance can be defined as individuals transferring their health risks to a private insurance company in return for a set premium. In private health insurance, premiums are generally determined according to the risk status (age, health status, gender, etc.) and the scope of the coverage requested. In an inflationary environment, it is important to determine individuals' orientation towards private health insurance in order to understand the changes in the sector. This study aims to determine in which direction and to what extent the premium collection level of private health insurance companies in Türkiye is affected by inflation. The study covers 25 private health insurance companies operating in Türkiye. The relationship between the level of inflation on a monthly basis for the period 2015-2023 and the total premium values of private health insurance of insurance companies is analyzed using ARDL cointegration methodology. According to the results, there is a cointegration relationship between private health insurance and CPI. A one percent increase in the CPI index increases real private health insurance premiums by 0.72 percentage points. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between primary aluminum production and workplace safety, with a focus on accident rates per megawatt-hour (MWh) in the aluminum industry. As global aluminum production expands, it not only introduces economic and environmental challenges but also raises significant safety concerns inherent to heavy industry operations. Given the complexity of aluminum manufacturing and its associated risks, this study conducts a comprehensive safety analysis. Utilizing various cointegration techniques, including the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), Cointegrated Regression (CCR), and the Engle-Granger and Phillips-Ouliaris tests, the research investigates the long-term relationship between production levels and accident rates. The findings reveal a significant cointegration between the variables, with the ARDL model estimating that a 1% increase in global aluminum production is associated with a 0.843% decrease in total accident rates. These results highlight the potential to enhance workplace safety through process optimization, providing valuable insights for industry stakeholders and policymakers focused on reducing risks in aluminum production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Environmental & Social Management Journal / Revista de Gestão Social e Ambiental is the property of Environmental & Social Management Journal and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance / Ekonomi, Politika & Finans Arastirmalari Dergisi is the property of Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The last few decades have been marked by profound changes in international trade, which is increasingly organised around global value chains. Theoretical and empirical research shows the benefits associated with increasing participation in global value chains (GVCs) for both developed and developing countries. However, empirical studies on the effects of backward and forward participation in GVCs for the specific case of a country remain limited. This article seeks to examine whether Morocco’s backward and forward participation in GVCs improves the performance of its exports over the period of 1995 to 2018 using different cointegration techniques in panel data. Our empirical results show that forward and backward participation positively impact exports and domestic value added in Moroccan exports. They also indicate that domestic and foreign service inputs contribute positively to this performance. Based on the obtained results, we propose some recommendations for policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This analysis examines the economic relationship between Türkiye and the GCC countries, focusing notably on the economic and trade ties. It argues that while mutual relations have increased during the AK Party era, historical commercial relations have been subject to fluctuations due to regional and foreign policy preferences. Descriptive analysis using secondary data supports this claim. Cointegration techniques are also employed to empirically analyze the trade relationship between the two sides from 1994 to 2020. The results indicate long-term cointegration in Türkiye-GCC economic relations, with bilateral trade positively affected in the long-term. However, the findings also suggest that as GCC countries' exports to Türkiye increase, Türkiye's exports to the GCC increase even more over the long-term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Polish Statistician / Wiadomości Statystyczne is the property of State Treasury - Statistics Poland and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The literature on the impact of research output (RO) on economic growth (EG) has been rapidly expanding. However, the single growth processes of technological laggard countries and the mediating roles of human capital (HC) and structural change have been overlooked. Based on cointegration analyses and Granger causality tests over 40 years (1980–2019) for Portugal, five results are worth highlighting: (1) in the short run, RO is critical to promote EG; (2) the long run relation between RO and EG is more complex, being positive and significant in the case of global and research fields that resemble capital goods (Life, Physical, Engineering & Technology, and Social Sciences), and negative in the case of research fields that resemble final goods (Clinical & Pre-Clinical Health, and Arts & Humanities); (3) existence of important short run mismatches between HC and scientific production, with the former mitigating the positive impact of the latter on EG; (4) in the long run, such mismatches are only apparent for 'general' HC (years of schooling of the population 25 + years), with the positive association between RO and EG being enhanced by increases in 'specialized' HC (number of R&D researchers); (5) structural change processes favouring industry amplify the positive (long-run) association and (short-run) impact of RO on EG. Such results robustly suggest that even in technologically laggard contexts, scientific production is critical for economic growth, especially when aligned with changes in sectoral composition that favour industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the long-term equilibrium relationships between the stock market, represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and a comprehensive range of 401 cryptocurrencies traded on Binance. Employing Johansen cointegration tests on data from January 2018 to May 2024, we examine pairwise relationships between 30 DJIA components and cryptocurrencies across various categories. Our findings reveal varying degrees of integration, with some stocks like Visa and Walt Disney Company showing strong cointegration with numerous cryptocurrencies. Sector-specific patterns emerge, such as significant links between technology stocks and platform tokens, and between financial services and DeFi tokens. Platform tokens exhibit the highest overall integration with stocks, followed by DeFi and NFT/Gaming domains. Notably, some cryptocurrencies, including major ones like Ethereum and Bitcoin, show high levels of cointegration, while others display independence. Stablecoins demonstrate strong cointegration with all stock prices. These results provide nuanced insights into the complex interactions between traditional and digital finance, contributing to our understanding of market integration, diversification strategies, and the evolving financial ecosystem.

Blade tip-timing (BTT) is a direct blade vibration monitoring technique and how to use under-sampled BTT signals for blade damage detection is still challenging under variable conditions. Compressed sensing (CS) has been introduced for reconstructing BTT vibration signals, but classical CS reconstruction algorithms are limited by the sparsity and slow optimization process. In order to overcome this issue, this paper presents an iteratively learning reconstruction method by introducing the vector approximate message passing (VAMP) algorithm, called VampNet. Firstly, a discrete Multi-coset sampling (MCS)-based CS model is built for BTT vibration signals in order domain and an improved Hanning-Possion window is integrated to reduce the order spectrum leakage in discretization. Then the VampNet model is proposed to reconstruct blade vibration engine orders (EOs) and the sensing matrix is discussed. Based on reconstructed vibration EOs, a cointegration-based method is proposed for blade damage detection, so that the influences of variable conditions can be reduced. Finally, the feasibility of the proposed method is testified by Matlab simulations and experimental dataset. The results show that blade vibration EOs can be accurately reconstructed by the VampNet and then small cracks can be detected by using the cointegrating residual.

There is also a growing body of literature on the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth, but many of these studies need to include the import variable. This study examines the state of trade in goods between Bulgaria and the world for 2018-2022 and investigates the cointegration between both export/import and economic growth of Bulgaria through employing yearly data for 1990 -2022. The Engle-Granger's cointegrating test was used to study the long-term relationship between variables. The results show a positive and significant long-term relationship between Bulgarian exports and imports and gross domestic product at a 99% confidence level. This leads us to two conclusions: first, Bulgarian exports are more variable over time than Bulgarian imports, and second, the development of Bulgarian foreign trade will positively affect its economic growth.

Quantitative analysis is an appropriate tool to disentangle the impact of various recent shocks on price inflation in Poland. This article presents an econometric macro-model of prices and wages in which the direct impact of supply shocks transmitted from energy commodity markets on inflation is highlighted, and the impact of these shocks on the wage-price nexus. Due to the secrecy of data on the prices and volumes of natural gas imports from Russia to Poland, we propose a method for estimating the natural gas import deflator based on data on other main energy resources (crude oil and coal). The model allows us to assess to what extent domestic prices (CPI) depend on trends in world markets, including energy commodity prices. It is also possible to estimate the impact of fiscal policy on price developments. The equations of the model are constructed using cointegration methods for disaggregated consumer and import price indices. The properties of the system of 19 equations are investigated using multiplier analysis. We present the results of a simulation in which no anti-crisis measures were assumed during the COVID-19 pandemic. The obtained results indicate the important role of fiscal policy in shaping prices.

This study investigated the long-run and short-run relationships between solid waste generation in Nigeria and two key climate variables: rainfall and temperature. Employing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis on data from 1982 to 2022, then revealed counterintuitive findings. In the long run, lagged rainfall exhibits a negative association with solid waste (p < 0.05), potentially explained by increased waste decomposition in wetter conditions. Conversely, lagged temperature showed a positive association (p < 0.05), aligning with theories of increased consumption and economic activity in warmer periods. The shortrun analysis unveils a self-correcting mechanism in solid waste generation and a statistically significant negative impact of lagged temperature (p < 0.05), requiring further investigation. Based on these findings, the study proposed policy implications for waste management strategies and data collection, emphasizing the need for sustainable solutions in the context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The aim of the article is to analyze Poland’s logistics potential measured by the means of the LPI (Logistics Performance Index). The impact of trade volume, infrastructure development and service quality on individual LPI components was assessed. Estimating the relationship between the components of the Polish LPI index and macroeconomic variables enables the assessment of the strength of the relationship and sensitivity to the economic situation. It allows to draw conclusions about possible areas that are more sensitive or require repair. It also enables to indicate how the economy influences the TSL sector (Transport- Shipping-Logistics). Design/methodology/approach: The analysis was carried out using the rules and methods of time series cointegration, which enable the analysis of long- and short-term relationships. This enabled the identification of areas most sensitive to the influence of particular factors. To obtain consistent time series, interpolation methods were also used. Findings: The development of infrastructure and an increase in the level of services has a positive impact on all aspects measured by LPI components. In turn, the increase in trade exchange, as an increase in demand for the TSL sector, affects four of the six components. In two cases, border services and on-time delivery, the relationship is negative. This highlights the main points limiting the growth of LPI ratings and indirectly limiting trade and economic development of Poland. Research limitations/implications: Limited data availability influenced the choice of method used in the study. Moreover, short time series and data interpolation used in the study may result in the inaccuracy of estimations. Practical implications: Econometric analysis indicates weaknesses in the Polish logistics sector. Improvements in customs regulations and expansion of infrastructure may improve the functioning of the TSL sector. It should be of particular interest to policy makers, for which economic growth and the LPI rating should be very important. Originality/value: This is the first paper that uses econometric tools to compare the components of LPI with macro variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to employ panel data approach to investigate determinants of total GHG emissions in all European Union (EU) economies in years 1990–2018 and evaluate the role of nuclear energy in climate change mitigation. It incorporates the following variables potentially affecting the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: economic—gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and GDP per capita squared to control for non-linear relationship between economic output and GHG emissions; structural—economic structure reflected in the share of manufacturing in total gross value added (GVA); energy-mix—share of nuclear power and renewable sources in total gross electricity production; environmental policy—the amount of environmental taxes (as a percentage of GDP) and the number of European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) allowances auctioned or sold (as a percentage of GDP per capita). The main findings of this study confirm the long-run relationship between GHG emissions, GDP level, and energy-mix variables. It endorses that higher share of nuclear power together with renewables in gross electricity production has significant impact on GHG emissions in the long run. In turn, it also validates the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve for selected countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use changes are an important factor contributing to the increasingly severe deterioration of the ecological environment. Therefore, regional analyses of land use and ecological risk should be developed for the restoration of ecological functions. In this study, a comprehensive ecological risk assessment was constructed on a regional scale and applied to Daye, a traditional mining city in China. Cointegration analyses and Granger causality tests were used to explore the complex relationship between land use and ecological risks in the study area from 2007 to 2021. The results show a long-term and stable relationship between land use changes in different sub-regions and ecological risks, albeit with distinct Granger causality relationships. This research presents the development trend of the relationship between land use change and ecological risks in a mining city, from rapid economic growth to economic restructuring and full-region ecological governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our paper examines and compares the influence of oil prices, international geopolitical risks, and government expenditures on Saudi Arabia's economic diversification during 1970–2020. We employ the bounds testing approach to cointegration to estimate the parameters of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model to attain the paper's goal. Our results show that oil prices and international geopolitical risk harm the KSA diversification process in the short run. The destructive effect of oil prices continues in the long run, while the impact of the international geopolitical risk does not persist. On the other hand, government expenditures encourage the diversification attitude in the short and long run. This outcome highlights the capability of the KSA government to stimulate the diversification process. It is a positive sign of the state capitalism doctrine's impact on the KSA economic diversification mechanism. From a policy implication perspective, our paper suggests prioritizing economic diversification clearly on the KSA government's agenda. Simultaneously, strengthening the KSA institutional framework and developing new forms of the social contract are critical to motivating the diversification process. • Do oil prices, geopolitical risk, and government spending affect diversification. • We employ a time series autoregressive distributed lag model. • Oil prices and geopolitical risk discourage economic diversification. • Government expenditures encourage economic diversification. • The impact of oil prices and government expenditures prevails to the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our paper empirically examines the impact of geopolitical risk on income inequality in the US economy during the period (1949–2020). The US is a dominant nation on the international scene via its military power, political influence, and economic impacts during the past eight decades. Therefore, its economy is susceptible to uncertain events and various risks. For this reason, we employ the US and international geopolitical risks as the main explanatory variables. The current paper constructs a model and uses the bounds testing approach to cointegration to approximate the parameters of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. This methodology generates short-term and long-term parameters, which assist in analyzing the effect of geopolitical risks on income inequality. Our paper finds that geopolitical risks improve income inequality in the short run, while it worsens income inequality in the long run. Our results' robustness check uses the Palma ratio as a dependent variable instead of the Gini coefficient and generates identical results. Our paper introduces a primary policy implication obtained from our outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Economics & Research (JER) is the property of Journal of Economics & Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Polish Journal of Economics / Gospodarka Narodowa is the property of SGH Warsaw School of Economics and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Deepsea mining risers, which transport mineral resources from the seafloor to surface facilities, are critical components of deepsea mining systems. This article presents a novel cointegration-based method for localizing structural damage in risers subjected to random excitations from waves, currents, and moving floating facilities. Although the dynamic responses of a riser (usually consisting of multiple segments) are often nonstationary, those within an individual pipe segment often have synchronous fluctuations with a common trend, allowing the application of a multivariate time series analysis. Cointegration can thus be performed for a pipe segment by treating the internal responses as the endogenous variables and those of the other pipe segments as the exogenous variables. Consequently, a stationary cointegrating residual for the dynamic responses purged of the influence of nonstationary excitations can be obtained. The cointegrating residual in conjunction with a statistical hypothesis test scheme is used to create an output-only damage indicator. The effectiveness of the proposed damage localization method is demonstrated with a numerical and experimental multi-segment riser. The results indicate that the strain responses of both risers exhibit nonstationary fluctuations due to the changeable environmental excitations. As the proposed method is robust to the external loading, it can accurately identify the damage location. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Social Sciences Research / Sosyal Bilimler Arastirmalari Dergisi is the property of ODU Journal of Social Sciences Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The permanent income hypothesis (PIH) has been empirically tested widely, but, the results are mixed. The probable reason for mixed resultsis different methodologiesthat make different underlying assumptions. The underlying assumptions are often contrary to the spirit of PIH. Moreover,some studies have tested it for a developed country or a set of developed countries, while others have tested it for a developing country or a set of developing countries. Therefore, this study applies both methods and uses the data of a developed country, such as the USA and of a developing country, such as Pakistan. The results show that PIH provides a good approximation of consumption decisions in both economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is seen that the Fisher hypothesis, which tries to explain the relationship between the interest rate and the inflation rate, is examined in the empirical literature for many years. The study examines the validity of the Fisher hypothesis in Turkey using time series analysis methods. Unlike the literature, it is aimed to examine the subject with a broad perspective by using the average cost of funding (AOFM), loan and deposit interest rates at the same time. For this purpose, Engle and Granger cointegration analysis is performed on the data between 2011.01-2021.08 for Turkey. After finding a cointegrating relationship between the series, the validity of the hypothesis is examined by using Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) cointegration estimator. According to the FMOLS analysis estimation findings, it is seen that the inflation rate has a statistically significant effect on the interest rate, and this effect differs in loan and deposit rates, and is higher in loan rates. In general, it is concluded that the highest effect is in AOFM. In addition, Toda and Yamamoto causality analysis is also performed and the causality relations between the series are examined. According to the results of Toda and Yamamoto causality analysis, causality relationship is determined from inflation rate to various interest rates. It is found that this relationship is bidirectional in consumer loans and AOFM. In summary, empirical findings show that the Fisher hypothesis is supported in Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Investigación Económica is the property of Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Facultad de Economia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Journal of Administrative Sciences / Yonetim Bilimleri Dergisi is the property of Canakkale Onsekiz Mart Universitesi, Terzioglu Kampusu and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Sustainable development has become a vital issue in the globalizing world given the food insecurity, climate change, significant degradation of the environment and depletion of natural resources, and biodiversity loss. Therefore, the identification of the key factors behind sustainable development is important for the planning and application of the proper policies by countries. In this context, the institutional, demographic, social, and economic determinants of overall sustainable development have been extensively explored, but the interplay among sustainable development, entrepreneurial activity, and ICT development has stayed relatively untouched. This article investigates the effect of entrepreneurial activity, proxied by total early-stage entrepreneurial activity and ICT development, on the overall sustainable development of 15 high-income countries over the 2002–2018 period; it uses the Westerlund and Edgerton cointegration test with a structural break, taking notice of the gap in the empirical literature regarding the determinants of sustainable development. The cointegration analysis shows that entrepreneurial activity and ICT development have a positive influence on sustainable development in the long run, but that the effect of ICT on overall sustainable development is shown to be stronger in comparison to entrepreneurial activity. ICT penetration and entrepreneurial activity should be encouraged through institutional, educational, and fiscal incentives to make progress in sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study seeks to explores the relationship among governance, foreign aid, and tax revenue. A common notion on governance is that it is a multifaceted factor, it may affect from other factor that is foreign aid. Foreign aid can hamper the governance situation and thus can reduce tax collection. To test these theoretical assumptions, we collected the numerical data from Asian economies for the years 2001–2019 and employed the panel FMOLS (fully modified ordinary least square) test to estimate the regression. The empirical findings first reveal that governance and foreign aid have a positive association with tax revenue in the long run. However, a negative trend in tax collection was observed following the interaction of foreign aid and governance. Foreign aid deteriorates the governance situation, which has a negative spillover impact on tax revenue. Our empirical analysis suggests that policy officials should focus on exercising governance and foreign aid effectiveness to meet the objective of more tax collection. Points for practitioners: Policy officials should focus on better governance exercises. They should carefully decide on the volume of foreign aid receipts. However, if it becomes necessary to receive foreign aid, then they should focus on aid effectiveness. Such steps can benefit the practitioners to collect more tax. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a country case study investigating whether home goods prices in Angola are better forecasted with innovations in the money market or with innovations in the real exchange rate. Using monthly data from 2007m03 to 2019m03, we propose a reduced form error correction representation to model the long-run and short-run relationships between money, the exchange rate, terms of trade, and the price level. In the long run, a stable money demand function and a relationship between the real exchange rate and terms of trade are identified. In the short run, results indicate that "excess depreciation" (defined as deviations of the exchange rate from its long-run relationship) outperforms the "excess liquidity" (defined as deviations of money from the level implied by the determinants of money demand) in forecasting changes in home goods prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this article is to find long- and short-term determinants of U.S. economic growth over the period 1970-2016. By using cointegration analysis and vector error correction models, we compensated for many variables that were not previously linked together. Empirical analysis shows that consumer spending, population, domestic investment, FDI inflows, and exports are long-term sources of economic growth, but FDI outflows, military spending, taxes, and imports are not considered long-term sources of economic growth. grow. In the short run, all variables have no effect on economic growth.

Land use changes are an important factor contributing to the increasingly severe deterioration of the ecological environment. Therefore, regional analyses of land use and ecological risk should be developed for the restoration of ecological functions. In this study, a comprehensive ecological risk assessment was constructed on a regional scale and applied to Daye, a traditional mining city in China. Cointegration analyses and Granger causality tests were used to explore the complex relationship between land use and ecological risks in the study area from 2007 to 2021. The results show a long-term and stable relationship between land use changes in different sub-regions and ecological risks, albeit with distinct Granger causality relationships. This research presents the development trend of the relationship between land use change and ecological risks in a mining city, from rapid economic growth to economic restructuring and full-region ecological governance.

Obesity has considerably increased since 1980 and become a global epidemic. Obesity-related health problems and the negative social and economic implications of obesity have led international institutions and countries to combat it. This study investigates the role of educational attainment and economic globalization in the global prevalence of obesity in samples of adult females and males in BRICS economies for 1990–2016 through causality and cointegration tests. The results of the causality tests reveal that educational attainment and economic globalization have a significant influence on obesity in both adult females and males in the short run. Furthermore, cointegration analysis indicates a negative effect of educational attainment on obesity in all BRICS economies in the long run, but the influence of economic globalization on obesity differs among the BRICS economies. Furthermore, the negative influence of educational attainment on obesity is revealed to be relatively higher in females than males.

Copyright of ESPOCH Congresses: The Ecuadorian Journal of S.T.E.A.M. is the property of Knowledge E DMCC and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

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Industrial cyber–physical system (ICPS), by its powerful computing, communication, precise control and remote operation functions, has become the mainstream of modern industrial process. The observed variables of the closed-loop process in ICPS are subject to the degradation of equipment and other factors, resulting in exhibiting a stationary/nonstationary mixture feature and dynamic feature. Moreover, due to the frequent change of working conditions in the closed-loop process, the traditional open-loop process monitoring method always triggers false alarms, which will impose a negative impact on the safety and trustworthiness of ICPS. Therefore, for the closed-loop process in ICPS, a latent feature oriented dictionary learning (LFDL) method is proposed, which realizes the precise separation of latent features of raw data through three stages. First, closed-loop process variables are separated into stationary and nonstationary variables to mine the local information spatially. Then, from the temporal viewpoint, the static and dynamic features were extracted for stationary and nonstationary variables on the basis of the slow feature analysis method and cointegration analysis for local monitoring. Finally, the global monitoring results are obtained by utilizing the dictionary learning method to fuse respectively the local monitoring results of the static and dynamic features. Since the proposed method has taken the feature of the close-loop process from temporal and spatial viewpoints simultaneously, it can distinguish the normal change of operating conditions and actual faults accurately. Extensive experiments including the three-phase flow, the Tennessee Eastman process and an industrial roasting process are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. • The fault of the closed-loop system is detected from the spatial and temporal viewpoint. • It is proposed to detect faults from a global perspective and locate faults from a local perspective. • The impact of the fault on the feature of the closed-loop system is analyzed and visualized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the world’s largest cement producer and a carbon dioxide (CO2) emitter, China has announced to the international community its goal of achieving a carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060. The issue of when and at what level CO2 emissions in the Chinese cement industry will peak and its subsequent evolution is receiving increasing attention, especially in light of the severe overcapacity in the Chinese cement industry. Based on the combination of cointegration analysis and scenario analysis, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the CO2 emission levels and the emission structure trends in the Chinese cement industry up to 2100. The results show that China’s cement demand, production, and CO2 emissions from China’s cement industry peaked as early as 2014 then the decline began. Under the enhanced overcapacity cutting scenario, China’s cement industry will reduce CO2 emissions by 908 Mt in 2020–2100. The average annual CO2 abatement rate will reach 2.55%, and it will be compressed to 129 Mt by 2100. Under accelerated and fundamental overcapacity cutting scenarios, the average annual CO2 abatement rates will be 2.46% and 2.34%, respectively, and CO2 emissions will decrease to 140 Mt and 154 Mt, respectively. Furthermore, the industry CO2 emissions ratio from combustion and production processes under the fundamental, accelerated, and enhanced overcapacity cutting scenario will rise from 77.56 to 88.73% in 2020 and from 90.08 to 91.31% in 2100, respectively. The industry CO2 emissions from electricity use will decline from 22.44% in 2020 to 11.27% and from 9.92 to 8.69% in 2100, respectively. China needs to accelerate processes, improve production equipment, reduce energy sources such as coal and oil, and promote the cement industry to develop a circular economy and reduce emissions through critical technologies such as intelligent manufacturing and clean production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Money demand function exerts a central role in macroeconomic policy of countries. Therefore, the purpose of this research paper is to examine how money demand responds to changes in income, interest rate, inflation and exchange rate for the case of North Macedonia using the quarterly data for the period 1998-2021. The research methodology consists of cointegration analysis that is performed to investigate the long run relationship between variables. Also, a Vector Error Correction model (VECM) was used to analyze both the long run and short run response of money demand to changes in its potential determinants. The real money balance was modelled as dependent variable on real GDP, interest rate, inflation, and exchange rate. Based on the cointegration results there exists a long run relationship between used variables. The long run empirical results disclose that the real GDP is positively related to money demand, whereas interest rate, inflation and exchange rate are negatively related. The short run results indicate that the exchange rate is not a significant determinant, whereas real GDP, and inflation are the most influencing factors. The empirical results also show that money demand in North Macedonia is unstable. This result implies that the country should implement prudent monetary policy to deal with the ambiguity of money demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The substantial improvements in development information and communication technologies led many economic and non-economic implications for the countries and in turn motivated the researchers to question the various effects of ICT especially in the light of economic crime. This study explores the short and long run influence of information and communication technologies on the shadow economy in 11 post-transition EU members over 1996-2015 period through second generation panel cointegration and causality tests regarding the cross-sectional dependence. The economic analyses disclosed that ICT indicators and human development had significant effects on the size of shadow economy in both short and long run. It was found that growing ICTs lead to reduction on the size of the shadow economy; in addition, human capital improvement policies serve as an important factor when tackling the shadow economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use archival data from various sources between 1990 and 2019 to construct a comprehensive index of economic integration between Hong Kong and Chinese mainland. The results indicate that the two economies have become highly integrated and interdependent over time. Cointegration tests of the long-run relationships between the index and economic and social indicators suggest that such integration is largely in tandem with the economic development of Hong Kong (e.g. GDP growth, unemployment, and property prices). However, the index is also associated with increasing disparity, a lack of confidence in the government and the future of Hong Kong, and the identity of Hongkongers. The findings reveal the positive effect of economic integration as well as deep-rooted problems in the territory. These problems present significant challenges for economic development and governance under the 'one country, two systems' and call for policy discourse on effective solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Entrepreneurship has become an important tool for job creation, economic growth, improvements in productivity and production, and innovation. Therefore, key country and individual-level factors driving entrepreneurship have been explored in the related literature. Furthermore, entrepreneurial education has been extensively scheduled in primary, secondary, and tertiary education programs by many countries. This study explores the impact of entrepreneurial education at primary and secondary education levels, higher education levels, and general education levels on early-stage entrepreneurial activity in selected high-income countries over the period of 2003 to 2018, through panel cointegration and causality analyses. Causality analysis revealed that entrepreneurial education and general education had a significant impact on earlystage entrepreneurial activity in the short run. The cointegration analysis disclosed that both entrepreneurial education at basic and higher education levels, respectively general education level positively affected the early-stage entrepreneurial activity in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis of innovation systems is a demanding task, which needs to be tackled comprehensively. Their modelling provides an indication of the formal innovative performance while the narrative analysis helps to examine relevant judgments about the rules and institutions that are key to the development of innovations. The study of the complementarity and non-complementarity of the conclusions obtained using both approaches is likely to contribute to a deeper understanding of the Russian innovation system functioning. The paper aims to analyse how the content and spread of the national innovation system narratives are interrelated with the modelling of the Russian innovation system and the most important indicators of its functioning. Methodologically, the research takes advantage of the methodological synthesis of narrative economics and original institutionalism. The research methods include narrative analysis, cointegration analysis of mutual influence between narratives and innovation indicators. The authors identify peculiar features of innovation systems’ modelling, analyse the texts, stories and other sources containing narratives about the Russian innovation system development, and based on this discover the relationship between the spread of certain narratives (the frequencies of word groups “innovative technologies”, “technology development”, “innovation activities”, “technology implementation”, “scientific schools”, “innovation policy”, “science and technology”) and innovation indicators (share of innovative goods, works, services in the total volume of goods shipped, works performed, services provided; share of expenditure on innovation activities in the total volume of goods shipped, works performed, services provided). The analysis also shows cointegration between the frequency of search queries “use of patents” and innovation indicators “number of patent application” and “number of patents issued”. The authors point to a number of limitations related to the innovation system modelling. There are some typical limitations such as availability and reliability of statistical data, methodological heterogeneity of statistics, model specification, etc., as well as some specific ones including a broad, ambiguous definition of the national innovation system, differences in the approaches to defining principal determinants, innovations immeasurability, considerations of the system connections and economies of scale, etc. Thus, the findings confirm the need for a narrative study in order to achieve an in-depth understanding of complex economic processes.