1. Development of an Ordinal Scale Treatment Endpoint for Adults Hospitalized With Influenza.
- Author
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Lee N, Smith SW, Hui DSC, Ye M, Zelyas N, Chan PKS, Drews SJ, Zapernick L, Wong R, Labib M, Shokoples S, and Eurich DT
- Subjects
- Adult, Aged, Antiviral Agents therapeutic use, Enzyme Inhibitors therapeutic use, Hospitalization, Humans, Treatment Outcome, Influenza, Human drug therapy, Influenza, Human epidemiology
- Abstract
Background: An obstacle in influenza therapeutics development is the lack of clinical endpoints, especially in hospitalized patients. A single time-point binary outcome measure is limited by patients' diverse clinical trajectories and low event rates., Methods: A 6-point ordinal scale with ascending clinical status severity (scoring: discharged; subacute care; acute care without/with respiratory failure; intensive care unit [ICU]; death) was proposed to study outcomes of adults hospitalized with influenza. Individual patient data from 2 active surveillance cohorts' datasets (2015/2016-2017/2018; Edmonton, Hong Kong) was used for evaluation. The impact of neuraminidase inhibitor (NAI) treatment on longitudinal ordinal outcome changes over 30 days was analyzed using mixed-effects ordinal logistic regression and group-based trajectory models., Results: Patient (n = 1226) baseline characteristics included age (mean 68.0 years), virus-type (A 78.1%, B 21.9%), respiratory failure (57.2%), ICU admittance (14.4%), and NAI treatment within 5 days of illness (69.2%). Outcomes at 30 days included discharged (75.2%), subacute care (13.7%), acute care (4.5%), and death (6.6%). Two main clinical trajectories were identified, predictive by baseline scoring (mean ± SD, 4.3 ± 0.6 vs 3.5 ± 0.6, P < .001). Improved outcomes with NAI treatment within 5 days were indicated by significantly lower clinical status scores over time (unadjusted odds ratio [OR], 0.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], .41-.69; P < .001; adjusted OR, 0.62; 95% CI, .50-.77; P < .001, for baseline score, age, and within-patient correlations). In subanalysis, influenza vaccination was also associated with lower scores (adjusted OR, 0.67; 95% CI, .50-.90; P = .007). Analyses of binary endpoints showed insignificant results., Conclusions: The ordinal outcome scale is a potentially useful clinical endpoint for influenza therapeutic trials, which could account for the diverse clinical trajectories of hospitalized patients, warranting further development., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)
- Published
- 2021
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