1. Global, regional, and national burden of gastrointestinal cancers among adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2019, and burden prediction to 2040
- Author
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Jieyu Peng, Shu Huang, Xiaohong Wang, Xiaomin Shi, Huan Xu, Ping Wang, Qi Chen, Wei Zhang, Lei Shi, Yan Peng, Nanjun Wang, and Xiaowei Tang
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Gastrointestinal cancers ,Global burden of disease ,Adolescents and young adults ,Prediction ,Public aspects of medicine ,RA1-1270 - Abstract
Abstract Background Gastrointestinal (GI) cancers have heavily burdened public health. Few studies reported GI cancer burden among adolescents and young adults (AYA). To address this gap, we explored the burden of GI cancer among people aged 15–39. Methods We retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Data Resources. The average annual percent change (AAPC) of rates was calculated by linear regression analysis of the natural logarithm. Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to predict the future burden. Results In 2019, there were 171,857 (95% uncertain interval [95% UI]: 157,092–187,974) new GI cancer cases with a rate of 5.79/100,000 (95% UI: 5.29–6.33) and 91,033 (95% UI: 83,156–99,399) deaths at a rate of 3.07/100,000 (95% UI: 2.80–3.35) among AYA. The number of prevalent cases and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were 722,573 (95% UI: 660,806–789,476) and 5,151,294 (95% UI: 4,706,065–56,188,77), with rates of 24.35/100,000 (95% UI: 22.27–26.60) and 173.57/100,000 (95% UI: 158.57–189.32) respectively. The overall rates of mortality (AAPC = -1.281, p
- Published
- 2024
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