Search

Aquaculture's role in addressing food security has grown, with a spotlight on Asian carp species. Polyculture, i.e. cultivating multiple fish species in a single system, is being increasingly adopted for its resource efficiency and economic benefits. This practice for Asian fish for food and ornamental purposes is gaining traction in Europe despite their invasive potential. Rising temperatures due to climate change offer an opportunity for thermophilic Asian carps (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix and Aristichthys nobilis). Using GIS modeling (Maxent), we identified the possible settlement of Asian carp in Northern Europe amidst climate change. We analyzed carp global distribution centers, assessed the potential carp spread in Europe, and evaluated their potential suitability for polyculture systems. By 2050, H. molitrix may extend its range to 58–62° N latitude, with a potential 1.7-fold habitat increase, while A. nobilis, which are more heat-tolerant, may move north to 52–58° N latitude, with a 1.3-fold potential increase. Despite the slight ecological differences in their native habitats, niche modeling indicates that these carp can occupy similar niches in Europe (proven statistically). The eventuality of using Asian species for polyculture in Europe presents both opportunities and challenges in the face of a changing climate as long as invasion risks are prevented. Envisaging such polyculture, yet very carefully for the protection of ecosystems, can help food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amphibians are the most threatened group of vertebrates. While habitat loss poses the greatest threat to amphibians, a spreading fungal disease caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis Longcore, Pessier & D.K. Nichols 1999 (Bd) is seriously affecting an increasing number of species. Although Bd is widely prevalent, there are identifiable heterogeneities in the pathogen's distribution that are linked to environmental parameters. Our objective was to identify conditions that affect the geographic distribution of this pathogen using species distribution models (SDMs) with a special focus on Eastern Europe. SDMs can help identify hotspots for future outbreaks of Bd but perhaps more importantly identify locations that may be environmental refuges ("coldspots") from infection. In general, climate is considered a major factor driving amphibian disease dynamics, but temperature in particular has received increased attention. Here, 42 environmental raster layers containing data on climate, soil, and human impact were used. The mean annual temperature range (or 'continentality') was found to have the strongest constraint on the geographic distribution of this pathogen. The modeling allowed to distinguish presumable locations that may be environmental refuges from infection and set up a framework to guide future search (sampling) of chytridiomycosis in Eastern Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetlands are of great importance for biodiversity and nature conservation, especially geographically isolated wetlands (GIW). Yet literature about the ecological value of such GIW is missing, especially at the edge of the distribution of endangered species such as amphibians. In 2018 and 2022, we monitored amphibian communities in 15 isolated (GIW) and 12 non-isolated (nGIW) ponds by counting individuals using three methods: (1) capturing with hand nets, (2) visual counting, and (3) capturing with fyke traps. The three methods provided similar results, showing the great importance of GIW for amphibians, especially newts, whose abundance was 5–13 times greater in GIW compared to nGIW. The largest numbers of species and individuals (adults and larvae) were found in isolated wetlands (GIW). In non-isolated water bodies (nGIW) where more than 10 individuals of the Chinese sleeper Perccottus glenii, an alien invasive fish, were found, amphibians were not found at all. Importantly, between 2018 and 2022, the northern crested newt, T. cristatus, dramatically decreased in the nGIW. As a result of our work, it was revealed that the reconstruction of geographically isolated wetlands is very important for the conservation of amphibian biodiversity in a changing climate. One of the most effective measures aimed at protecting amphibians from negative factors—the spread of alien invasive fish species and diseases—is the reconstruction of wetlands in historically exploited landscapes with the creation of a wide range of water bodies yet broadly dominated by geographically isolated ponds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An increasing number of thermophilic invasive species are spreading and becoming naturalized in Eastern Europe, at least partially due to recent climate change. This can be exemplified by current expansion of the red-eared slider, Trachemys scripta, in Latvia and Ukraine. We collected 44 records of the species in Latvia and 79 in Ukraine. Two of the three subspecies have been found - T. s. elegans and T. s. scripta. In both countries courtship behavior and egg-laying have been observed. Individuals successfully surviving the winter in the wild have been recorded. Due to climate change, it is likely that this species has the potential to establish itself in Latvia and Ukraine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the modern world, when the problems of the environment are most acutely associated with climate change, amphibians are considered to be the most vulnerable group of anamniotes as an indicator of the state of wetlands. Along with a decrease of numbers among amphibians in Europe, nowadays newts especially suffer from the impact of invasive species, in particular predators such as the Chinese sleeper, Perccottus glenii. This predatory fish species has recently spread to areas of primary relevance for newt reproduction. This fish consumes eggs, larvae, and even adult newt individuals. Using an ecological niche approach and climate based species distribution models (SDM), we applied the coefficient of determination (R2) for comparing the level of similarity of the built SDM for the newts Triturus cristatus and Lissotriton vulgaris, and the Chinese sleeper. We show that by 2050, the level of climatic niche similarity for these native and invasive species will increase from 12% to 22% throughout Europe, and from 44% to 66% in Eastern Europe. This study highlights the expansion of the Chinese sleeper as a real threat to European biodiversity of wetlands in the near future, especially in their most northeastern distribution range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Freshwater ecosystems are exceptionally vulnerable to biological invasions. The introduction of non-native species of fish to Europe has been a common practice, including the introduction of the North American pumpkinseed, Lepomis gibbosus. The range expansion of this species has continued across the continent, with new areas occupied in Ukraine. Using a species distribution modelling approach, predictions are made of the geographic range of the fish based on presence records and environmental variables from the Near-global environmental information for freshwater ecosystems database likely to be associated with habitat suitability and important for the possible further expansion of L. gibbosus. Results show the current widespread distribution of L. gibbosus in Ukraine and prospects for future expansion of the species into Belarus and the Baltic countries. In Latvia, at the potential range edge of L. gibbosus, chances for a spontaneous invasion are relatively low. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spread and outbreaks of phytophagous pests are often associated with global warming. In addition to economic interest, these species may be of interest in terms of biological indication of climate changes. In this context, we considered the locust digitate leafminer Parectopa robiniella Clemens, 1863 (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae). This phytophage was first discovered in Europe in 1970 near Milano in Italy. Since then, it has been spreading across the continent. In Ukraine, it was recorded for the first time in 2003. In 2020–2021, we found areas of massive leaf damage caused by the black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia) in locations on Trukhaniv Island in Kyiv and some places in the Kyiv administrative region. Using 1041 georeferenced records of P. robiniella across Europe and a Bayesian additive regression trees algorithm (BART), we modeled the distribution of the moth. Predictors of current climate (WorldClim v.2, CliMond v.1.2 and ENVIREM) and a black locust habitat suitability raster were employed. Sets of SDMs built for P. robiniella with and without the habitat suitability raster for the host tree performed equally well. Amongst the factors that determine the niche of the locust digitate leafminer, most important are temperature-related conditions assumed to facilitate the spread and naturalization of the pest. In Ukraine, the appearance of the moth has coincided with increasing mean annual temperatures. Particularly favorable for the species are areas in the west and south-west of the country, and Transcarpathia. In the near future, the moth could reach locations in Nordic countries, Estonia, the British Isles, Black Sea coastal areas in Turkey, further into Russia, etc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spread of phytophagous pests are often associated with global warming. These species may be of interest in terms of biological indications of climate change. We considered the locust digitate leafminer P. robiniella. In Ukraine it was first recorded in 2003. In 2020–2021, we found areas of massive R. pseudoacacia leaf damage caused by the pest on Trukhaniv island (Kyiv) and some places in the region. Using 592 georeferenced records of P. robiniella across Europe and a Bayesian additive regression trees algorithm, we modeled the distribution of the moth. As predictors, a current climate (WorldClim v.2) and a black locust habitat suitability map were employed. Western and south-western regions of Ukraine and Transcarpathia are considered the most favorable for the pest. Amongst the factors determining its niche, summer moisture and warm conditions are the most important for facilitating the spread and naturalization of the moth. Under progressing climate change, the species is expected to move eastward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An increasing number of thermophilic invasive species are spreading and becoming naturalized in Eastern Europe, at least partially due to recent climate change. This can be exemplified by current expansion of the red-eared slider, Trachemys scripta, in Latvia and Ukraine. We collected 44 records of the species in Latvia and 79 in Ukraine. Two of the three subspecies have been found - T. s. elegans and T. s. scripta. In both countries courtship behavior and egg-laying have been observed. Individuals successfully surviving the winter in the wild have been recorded. Due to climate change, it is likely that this species has the potential to establish itself in Latvia and Ukraine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amphibians are greatly affected by invasive species through direct predation and competition. Being triggered by climate change, the invasion of Perccottus glenii (the Chinese sleeper) in Eurasia may have detrimental consequences for the fire-bellied toad (Bombina bombina). The invader can feed upon B. bombina toads and juveniles and compete for food. We used correlative species distribution models (SDMs) to infer competitive interaction between the invader and native species. As a result, a significant level of correlation (r=0.636) between both SDMs was found. It means that there is a considerable overlap of areas of similar habitat suitability related to the species and a potential for competition. For strategical management of both species in Latvia for nature conservation purposes, we mapped areas in the country according to two main criteria: 1) the lesser chances of negative interactions between species, and 2) a possibility to avoid unwanted contact and/or competition between the fish and the toad. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential distribution of tropical fish species in Eastern Europe—Gambusia holbrooki (introduced for biological control) and Poecilia reticulata (aquarium species, found in waste waters of big cities)—tend to be of particular interest in terms of global climate change. After GIS modeling of our own data and findings listed in the GBIF databases (2278 points for G. holbrooki and 1410 points for P. reticulata) using the Maxent package and 'ntbox' package in R, 18 uncorrelated variables of 35 Bioclim climatic parameters from CliMond dataset, it was found out that by 2090 guppies will appear in the south of Ukraine (Danube river's estuary, as well as in several places in the Caucasus and Turkey with habitat suitability > 0.3–0.5). G. holbrooki will also slightly expand its range in Europe. Limiting factors for G. holbrooki distribution are: bio1 (Annual mean temperature, optimum +12–+24 °C) and bio19 (Precipitation of coldest quarter (mm). Limiting factors for P. reticulata are: bio1 (optimum +14–+28 °C), bio4 (Temperature seasonality), bio3 (Isothermality). Unlike G. holbrooki, guppies prefer warmer waters. Such thermophilic fish species do not compete with the native ichthyofauna, but they can occupy niches in anthropogenically transformed habitats, playing an important role as agents of biological control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to use an integrated approach for studying the influence of risk factors on the distribution of the native turtle species E. orbicularis and accompanying invasive species (T. scripta and N. procyonoides) in the northeast of their range, we used GIS modelling and a database (GAEZ, human footprint, CliMond) of 55 preselected variables, which represent a system of bioclimatic and anthropogenic factors. The main variables that influenced the results were factors related to temperature. There was a high correlation (r = 0.6) between the species distribution model's habitat suitability for E. orbicularis and the corresponding "human footprint" values within the European part of the species' natural range. Its unpretentiousness towards anthropogenic factors would likely help the further expansion of its range in eastern Europe, because the areas with the highest habitat suitability (r > 0.7) were projected to increase 3.3-fold. When comparing the E. orbicularis model to those obtained for N. procyonoides and T. scripta, we concluded that N. procyonoides could be dangerous because it occupies similar habitats (the degree of correlation is reasonably high in the north of their range (r = 0.5) in Latvia). An expansion of the range of Trachemys scripta is also possible in the future within the northern territories. Therefore, when developing the turtles' protection algorithms, it is also necessary to take into account the influence of invasive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of the dynamics of the European pond turtle's Emys orbicularis range and distribution as an indicator of climate change in the past, present, and future is most relevant in connection with the protected status of this species in Europe. Based on our original finds, 25 archaeological sites yielding 1623 remains of 1504 individuals of subfossil pond turtles, current marginal distribution in Latvia, Ukraine, Russia, and literature data, we analyzed 437 records of Holocene turtles and 2847 current records of pond turtles. We identified areas that could serve as refugia for E. orbicularis, as a result of GIS modeling, while using 19 bioclimatic variables from the Worldclim and PaleoClim data bases. The data obtained confirm current hypotheses regarding the origin of more than 10 mtDNA lineages of E. orbicularis and the existence of multiple glacial refugia, and considerable Holocene home range dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]