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Abstract A shift of El Niño onset location from eastern Pacific (EP) to western Pacific (WP) occurred around 1970. It was accompanied by a faster mean sea surface temperature (SST) warming in WP and a change of precursory SST and wind anomaly patterns. The eigenvalue analysis of a simple coupled model shows that an SST anomaly (SSTA) in WP may grow under the post-1970 mean condition but cannot under the pre-1970 mean condition. As a result, a warm SSTA appeared in WP accompanying to a preceding La Niña condition in EP after 1970, whereas such a warming was rarely seen before 1970. The preceding SSTA patterns led to distinctive zonal wind responses in EP, favoring El Niño onset in EP prior to 1970. For the post-1970 El Niño onset, an initial warming in WP was induced by anomalous downward solar radiation in association with atmospheric meridional overturning circulation or anomalous horizontal advection associated with thermocline induced eastward geostrophic currents.

Abstract Climate change mitigation through negative CO2 emissions has been recognized as a crucial strategy to combat global warming. However, its potential effects on terrestrial productivity and agricultural activities remain uncertain. In this study, we utilized large ensemble simulations with an Earth system model of full complexity to investigate the response of Gross Primary Production (GPP) to CO2 forcings. Our findings reveal a significant asymmetry in the GPP response to CO2 ramp-up and symmetric ramp-down model experiments, especially in Europe, suggesting that GPP declines rapidly as CO2 levels decrease. Remarkably, during the CO2 removal period, the North Atlantic Sea surface temperature experienced cooling due to a delayed recovery of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This cooling led to precipitation and soil moisture deficits, resulting in a rapid reduction in GPP. This asymmetry in GPP response holds consistent across multi-model simulations. These results underscore the potential implications of delayed recovery in ocean circulation, which could unexpectedly accelerate terrestrial GPP reduction. These insights are crucial for policymakers, aiding them in projecting agricultural activity and formulating targeted GPP control policies specific to the European region.

Abstract Deep learning (DL) has achieved notable success in El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts. Most DL‐based models focused on forecasting ENSO indices while the zonal distribution of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) over the equatorial Pacific was overlooked. To provide accurate predictions for the SSTA zonal pattern, this study developed a model through leveraging the merits of the cosine distance in constructing the convolutional neural network. This model can skillfully predict the SSTA zonal pattern over the equatorial Pacific 1 year in advance, remarkably outperforming current dynamical models. Moreover, the physical interpretation of the model prediction reveals that the sources for ENSO predictability at different lead times are distinct. For the 10‐month‐lead predictions, the precursors in the north Pacific, south Pacific and tropical Atlantic play critical roles in determining the model behaviors; while for the 16‐month‐lead predictions, the initial signals in the tropical Pacific associated with the discharge‐recharge cycle are essential.

The drivers of multidecadal changes in the North Tropical Atlantic−Pacific connection are still not fully understood. Here, the authors show that they are mainly controlled by multidecadal variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Observational analyses reveal that a dominant mode in the South Asian Monsoon region in boreal summer is a westward-propagating synoptic-scale disturbance with a typical wavelength of 4000 km that is coupled with moistening and precipitation processes. The disturbances exhibit an eastward tilt during their development before reaching their maximum activity center. A 2.5-layer model that extends a classic 2-level quasi-geostrophic model by including a prognostic lower-tropospheric moisture tendency equation and an interactive planetary boundary layer was constructed. The eigenvalue analysis of this model shows that the most unstable mode has a preferred zonal wavelength of 4000 km, a westward phase speed of 6 m s−1, an eastward tilt vertical structure, and a westward shift of maximum moisture/precipitation center relative to the lower-tropospheric vorticity center, all of which agree with the observations. Sensitivity experiments show that the moisture–vortex instability determines, to a large extent, the growth rate, while the baroclinic instability helps set up the preferred zonal scale. Ekman-pumping-induced vertical moisture advection prompts an in-phase component of perturbation moisture relative to the low-level cyclonic center, allowing the generation of available potential energy and perturbation growth, regardless of whether or not a low-level mean westerly is presented. In contrast to a previous study, the growth rate is reversely proportional to the convective adjustment time. The current work sheds light on understanding the moisture–vortex and the baroclinic instability in a monsoonal environment with a pronounced easterly vertical shear.

Predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since the 2000s has become increasingly challenging. Here the authors show that the Southern Indian Ocean Dipole has become a key precursor of Central Pacific El Niño since the 2000s with a 14-month lead.

Abstract East Asia is undergoing significant climate changes and these changes are likely to grow in the future. It is urgent to characterize both the mechanisms controlling climate and the response of the East Asian climate system at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels (GW1.5 and GW2 hereafter). This study reviews recent studies on East Asian climate change at GW1.5 and GW2. The intensity and variability of the East Asian summer monsoon are expected to increase modestly, accompanied by an enhancement of water vapor transport. Other expected changes include the intensification of the Western Pacific Subtropical High and an intensified and southward shift of the East Asian jet, while the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon is projected to reduce with high uncertainty. Meanwhile, the frequency of ENSO may increase in a warming world with great uncertainty. Significant warming and wetting occur in East Asia, with more pronounced intensity, frequency, and duration of climate extremes at GW2 than that at GW1.5. The fine structure of regional climate changes and the presence and location of various warming hotspots, however, show substantial divergence among different model simulations. Furthermore, the Asian climate responses can differ substantially between the transient and stabilized GW1.5 and GW2, which has important implications for emission policies. Thus, to better plan effective mitigation and adaptation activities, further research including an in-depth exploration of the divergent responses in transient versus stabilized scenarios, the quantification of future projection uncertainties, and improvements of the methods to reduce model uncertainties are required.

Abstract Previous studies suggested that fast‐decay El Niño events are more favorable in generating the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) in the decaying summer. However, we found that this is not the case for all fast‐decay El Niño events. By comparing two groups of fast‐decay El Niño events with significant and insignificant WNPAC in the following summer, we found that the westward extension of the equatorial Pacific cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and the subtropical central‐north Pacific cold SSTA play important roles in the generation and intensification of the WNPAC during decaying summer. Further analyses indicated that the internal atmospheric mode—North Pacific Oscillation during boreal spring can affect the formation of the cold SSTA over the subtropical central‐north Pacific and the westward extension of the equatorial Pacific cold SSTA during summer. Additional effects of tropical Indian and Atlantic forcing on the maintenance of the WNPAC are also shown.

Idealized experiments were conducted to examine the impacts of moderate vertical wind shear (VWS, i.e., magnitude of 12 m s−1) on the intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) of different initial sizes. The results showed that the intensity of all the simulated TCs decreased at the first 12-hour integration after imposing the shear. Larger TCs resumed intensification earlier, whereas smaller ones re-intensified more slowly or even failed to intensify. The differences in the intensification rate are likely due to the tilting magnitude. Under VWS, the upper-level TC center exhibited a horizontal displacement relative to the low-level circulation. In general, this displacement was smaller in larger TCs, indicating that larger TCs are less susceptible to VWS. Thermodynamically, the intrusion of mid-level low moist entropy also played a role in suppressing upshear convection. This negative impact was pronounced in smaller TCs. By using the PV-ω equation, the resilience of TC to VWS was compared. The second circulation forced by both dry dynamic and diabatic heating acted to restore the system to a vertically upright position. For larger TCs, more extensive convection was prolific on the downshear side, and its corresponding forced second circulation offset a larger part of the low-to mid-level environmental shear, which made larger TCs more resilient to VWS; i.e., larger TCs produced stronger low to middle counter shear circulation and facilitated vertical realignment. In contrast, for smaller TCs, the updrafts forced by dry dynamic and diabatic heating were deeper but narrower at the initial time, which did not efficiently reduce the mid-level VWS, resulting in greater tilting of the TC, thus making the smaller TCs more vulnerable to VWS.

By decomposing observed El Niño and La Niña events into a strong group and a weak group, respectively, we discovered that the strong La Niña group has its peak center more towards the west compared to the weak La Niña group, whereas the strong El Niño group has its peak center more towards the east compared to the weak El Niño group. The cause of this structure asymmetry is investigated through an ocean mixed-layer heat budget analysis. It was found that the asymmetry is closely linked to the longitudinal distribution of SST anomaly (SSTA) skewness along the equator, and is fundamentally caused by nonlinear dynamic heating, especially nonlinear horizontal temperature advection. It was demonstrated that near the equatorial central Pacific, the anomalous zonal and meridional currents generate negative nonlinear zonal and meridional temperature advection anomalies for both the El Niño and La Niña events, thus favoring a stronger La Niña and a weaker El Niño. Over the eastern Pacific, due to the dominant geostrophic zonal current anomalies and the southward shift of SSTA centers, nonlinear horizontal temperature advection anomalies tend to be positive for both the El Niño and La Niña, thus favoring a stronger growth of El Niño than La Niña. Nonlinear vertical temperature advection anomalies play minor roles in the central Pacific and tend to partially offset the nonlinear horizontal advection effect in the equatorial eastern Pacific.

What causes the eastward extension of the climatological monsoon trough over the western North Pacific in the boreal summer was investigated through both observational analyses and numerical simulations. It was found that the highest SST is always located to the east of maximum precipitation, and this asymmetric SST pattern favors the eastward extension of the monsoon trough through SST induced boundary layer convergence. A mixed-layer heat budget analysis further indicates that the SST asymmetry arises primarily from the asymmetric pattern of cloud-modified downward shortwave radiation. In addition, two internal atmospheric mechanisms are identified. Firstly, there is a zonal asymmetry in the lower-tropospheric moisture advection. Southeasterlies to the east of the convection, in association with the subtropical high advect high mean moisture from south, leads to low-level moistening to the east of the convective center. Secondly, the heating-induced Kelvin wave response leads to a boundary layer convergence ahead of the convection. Both the processes lead to the setup of a convectively unstable stratification to the east, favoring the eastward extension of the monsoon trough. Two sets of the WRF model experiments that specify a fixed and a time-dependent SST field confirm the roles of the aforementioned atmospheric internal processes as well as the air–sea interaction process in causing the eastward progression of the climatological monsoon trough over the western North Pacific.

This study classifies regional persistent extreme precipitation events (PEPEs) in North China into two types in accordance with variance contributions and significance of different timescale rainfall variability in boreal summer. For type 1, PEPEs are dominated by a 10–20-day periodicity, and for type 2, PEPEs are mainly influenced by a 30–60-day mode. Atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the two types of PEPEs are characterized by a zonal wave train (the EU pattern) in the mid–high latitudes in type 1 but a meridional wave train (the EAP pattern) in East Asia in type 2. The common feature of the two types is anomalous southerly on the west edge of the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), which favors anomalous moisture transport into the key region. Additional moisture source for type 2 is linked to anomalous cross-equatorial flow. Both types of PEPEs result from the combined effect of intraseasonal oscillations in both the mid–high latitudes and the tropics. The impact of ENSO on the two types of PEPEs is investigated. While a La Niña SST condition in the preceding winter favor the occurrence of PEPEs, their subsequent transition in central and eastern equatorial Pacific will determine which of the two types of PEPEs is pronounced.

The track forecasts of tropical cyclones (TC) in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin during 2021 typhoon season with five global models and four regional models are evaluated here. The results show that the average direct position errors (DPEs) of the global and regional models are approximately 80, 150, 200, 300, and 400 km at 24 h, 48 h, 72 h, 96 h, and 120 h lead-times, respectively. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF-IFS) achieved the best track forecast performance at each lead among the five global models. Among the four regional models, The China Meteorological Administration Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea (CMA-TRAMS) attained the smallest DPEs within a 72 h lead, while The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) achieved the best track forecast performance at 96 h and 120 h leads. Most of the models produced an obvious westward systematic bias on track forecast from a 24 h to a 120 h lead. Further correlation and cluster analyses indicate that initial TC intensity and size and environmental steering flow can be regarded as good predictors for TC DPEs. TCs with a stronger initial intensity, a bigger initial size, and a larger environmental steering flow in general attain a smaller DPE, and the improvements may go up to 36% at short lead-time.

With the recurrence of high-impact extreme events and the growing public demands to understand the causes of the events, event attribution has emerged as a frontier of climate change research. Typically, an event attribution study focuses on one individual extreme event that has just occurred. Studies rarely examine human influence on multiple extreme events in different times of the past. Here we conduct a comprehensive attribution analysis on the four heaviest precipitation events in the Yangtze River Valley during the past 100 years. We start by defining extreme precipitation events as the heaviest precipitation over a fixed size area that is of direct relevance to flood preparedness and management. When examining the events over the historical time, we allow the precise location of the area to change in different years. By definition, four extremely strong events are identified, and they happened in the summer of 1931, 1954, 1998 and 2020. We find that the impacts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and anthropogenic aerosols (AAs) on these events show clear difference in different time period. The impacts were negligible in the early period and became more and more discernible since the late 20th century. The GHGs have gradually increased the occurrence probability of extreme precipitaiton while the AAs have decreased the occurrence of extrem precipitation. These competing effects from the GHGs and AAs have led to a slight and then gradually increasing human influence on extreme precipitation over time. GHGs have exerted a larger influence on short-duration precipitation events while AAs have had a larger influence on monthly mean precipitation. The more extreme the precipitation event, the clearer the anthropogenic influence.

Abstract Understanding the link between future changes in East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and global warming levels is of great importance for regional climate change adaptation and mitigation in East Asia. Here, we analyze the projected changes in EASM circulation and precipitation under different warming levels from 1.5 to 5 °C above the preindustrial global mean temperature, using large‐ensemble simulations conducted with Canadian Earth System Model version 2. We find that the model projects enhanced monsoon circulation and precipitation with global warming. The 850‐hPa meridional winds, precipitation, and 500‐hPa vertical ascending motion will be enhanced nonlinearly, while the total column precipitable water will increase quasi‐linearly. The increase in precipitable water in the wet EASM region is only slightly greater than global average but the increase in precipitation is much greater than global one, with enhanced 500‐hPa vertical ascending motion contrary to global mean. The increased low‐level land‐sea thermal contrast leads to the enhanced EASM meridional circulation and thus bring a large amount of moisture into Eastern China, providing favorable conditions for additional increase in precipitation. A simplified moisture budget analysis shows that the dynamic component related to strengthening monsoon circulation plays dominant role in the increase in EASM precipitation when the global temperature increases by more than approximately 2 °C, while the thermodynamic component caused by increased water vapor is important when the warming is smaller.

Abstract Responses of summer precipitation in China to global 1.5°C warming with transient and stabilized pathways are investigated through the analysis of the Common Earth System Model climate simulations. Precipitation increases more significantly in southeast China in the stabilized scenario compared with the transient one. The difference is primarily attributable to dynamic factors related to circulation changes and driven by differences of land‐ocean thermal contrast between the two scenarios. The stabilized warming favors conditions of larger ocean warming and smaller land warming, leads to enhanced meridional temperature gradient and ultimately speeds up the jet stream over East Asia. Ageostrophic wind at the entrance of the accelerated jet strengthens ascending motion and precipitation along the coast of Asia from southeast China to India. The enhanced heating over India further induces a Kelvin‐wave response with an anomalous anticyclone that contributes to the enhanced westward shifted of the western North Pacific Subtropical High. Southerly winds at the west flank of the anticyclone transport moisture northward from tropical oceans, and strengthen precipitation in southeast China.

The capability to reproduce tropical cyclones (TCs) realistically is important for climate models. A recent study proposed a method for quantitative evaluation of climate model simulations of TC track characteristics in a specific basin, which can be used to rank multiple climate models based on their performance. As an extension of this method, we propose a more comprehensive method here to evaluate the capability of climate models in simulating multi-faceted characteristics of global TCs. Compared with the original method, the new method considers the capability of climate models in simulating not only TC tracks but also TC intensity and frequency. Moreover, the new method is applicable to the global domain. In this study, we apply this method to evaluate the performance of eight climate models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. It is found that, for the overall performance of global TC simulations, the CSIRO Mk3.6.0 model performs the best, followed by GFDL CM3, MPI-ESM-LR, and MRI-CGCM3 models. Moreover, the capability of each of these models in simulating global TCs differs substantially over different ocean basins.

A high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate inner-core thermodynamic (such as moist static energy) and dynamic secondary circulation structure evolutions associated with the rapid intensification (RI) of Super Typhoon Yutu (2007). The results show that the column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) and the secondary circulation strength are significantly correlated to the typhoon intensity change. A rapid increase of the MSE during the RI period is primarily attributed to inner core temperature increase, due to enhanced subsidence within the eye and strengthened convective heating along the eyewall. The column-integrated MSE budget analysis shows that its rapid increase during the RI is mainly caused by surface latent heat flux. A further diagnosis of the Sawyer–Eliassen equation shows that the rapid strengthening of the secondary circulation during RI results from both the radially expanding positive diabatic heating over the eyewall and the occurrence of a second heating center outside the eyewall. While the radially expanding eyewall heating contributes about 70% of the secondary circulation change, the outer heating contributes about 30%.

Abstract The interdecadal variability of intensity of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter was investigated based on two reanalysis datasets (NOAA 20CR and ERA‐20C). Both the reanalysis datasets reveal statistically significant power spectrum peaks at 12–20‐year periods. A composite analysis shows that during the active interdecadal phase, eastward propagating MJO activity was strengthened over the equatorial warm pool expanded from the Indian Ocean (IO) to the western Pacific (WP). The cause of the enhanced MJO variability was attributed to the interdecadal change of background mean precipitation in situ. A further diagnosis shows that the increase of the background precipitation over the Maritime Continent and the WP was attributed to interdecadal warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in situ, whereas the increase of the precipitation over the IO resulted from the local convective instability due to the increase of wind induced surface evaporation and moisture. The strengthened background precipitation impacted the MJO strength through the increase of the interdecadal background moisture in the lower and middle troposphere induced by anomalous vertical moisture advection.

Taking the stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) event in February 2018 as an example, the relationship between the SSW event and the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) mode over mid-high-latitude Eurasia is investigated by daily reanalysis data. First, the 2018 SSW event and mid-high-latitude ISO are reviewed. The 2018 SSW event is a typical vortex-split event defined by the NCEP-DOE dataset, and the ISO mode features a southeastward propagation. Along with the ISO propagation, temperature anomalies developed from troposphere to stratosphere in the 2018 wintertime. It is also found that a strong ISO event occurred before the onset of SSW in this wintertime. Our analysis reveals that the correlation is significant when mid-high-latitude ISO leads the 2018 SSW event by 9–13 days. Occurrence of strong ISO 9–13 days before the SSW event is found to be conducive to its onset. The diagnosis of planetary wave activity indicates that stronger ISO leads to strengthened wavenumber-2 geopotential height anomalies; then, its in-phase superposition of climatological geopotential height makes up for the upward-propagating tropospheric planetary waves, which is in favor of the onset of the 2018 SSW event. The outcome of energy conversion equations also reveals that ISO perturbation contributes to the onset of SSW. Lastly, the contribution of the vertical component of Plumb wave activity flux propagated upward from the region of mid-high-latitude ISO is estimated at approximately 69%.

In contrast to the historical forecast test which is temporally successive with a near-steady forecast skill, the real-time forecast made at any one moment produces a forecast time-series whose skill rapidly decreases as the forecast lead time increases; thus, only the leading section of the latter is adopted in practical applications. As compared with the intraseasonal filtered historical forecast, the real-time extended-range forecast has a lower skill in the absence of filtering. In addition, it is difficult to estimate the intraseasonal phases near the end of the real-time forecast time-series due to missed information afterward. The current work developed a simple but useful method to improve the real-time forecast skill from the above two aspects for an empirical extended-range forecast scheme. The scheme is devoted to predict the intraseasonal variabilities of Indian summer monsoon precipitation, in which the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation acts as the precursor. The intraseasonal signals in the previous observations, the better forecast skills of shorter lead times, the implicit information regarding the intraseasonal phases in the forecast of longer lead times, and the data-adaptive intraseasonal filter are adopted in the improving method, so as to extract intraseasonal signals as much as possible from the currently available information at each forecast moment. A practical comparison shows that the forecast skills of the real-time forecast improved by this method are close to or even better than the intraseasonal filtered historical forecast. Even at the longest acceptable forecast lead time that the forecast after which is considered to be worthless, it helps extract useful information regarding the intraseasonal phases.

Abstract In this study, we compared the performance of two potential predicators, that is, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (Niño‐3.4) and mega‐ENSO index, in the seasonal forecast of tropical cyclone (TC) activity and its spatial distribution over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the extended TC season, which is of public concern. Our results clearly show that, although both mega‐ENSO and Niño‐3.4 indices in the preceding May are important predictors for the seasonal predication, the relative‐sea surface temperature (SST)‐dependent mega‐ENSO exhibits a higher skill in the seasonal forecasting compared with the absolute‐SST‐dependent ENSO. Further results show that, despite of stronger destructiveness of TCs in high mega‐ENSO (El Niño) years than in low mega‐ENSO (La Niña) years, more attention should be paid to the TCs in low mega‐ENSO years, which are more likely to occur in coastal areas compared with the TCs in high mega‐ENSO years. Due to the responses of TC genesis, TC potential intensity, and large‐scale flow to the SST change in low mega‐ENSO years, the WNP TCs tend to originate in the northwestern quadrant and intensify at high latitudes and then turn northwestward over the TC prevailing region, which contributes to the northwestward migration of the WNP TC exposure in terms of track density and destructiveness density and thus imposes more risks in the coastal areas in low mega‐ENSO years. In addition, despite the significant predication skill in forecasting TC activity when using mega‐ENSO/Niño‐3.4 as a single predicator, it is still far to predict reliable WNP activity, especially its spatial distribution, without considering other predictors.

Abstract State‐of‐the‐art climate models are extremely useful tools, but they all have biases when simulating tropical cyclone (TC) genesis location. These biases contribute to discrepancies in simulating other characteristics of TC activities (e.g., track, intensity, and duration) and even the surrounding large‐scale circulation. The genesis potential index (GPI) is a useful tool to evaluate the performance of climate models in simulating TC genesis. Here, it is employed to investigate possible causes of simulation biases of TC genesis location in western North Pacific using the downscaled Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) climate model and observations. We find that GPI can reasonably describe the spatial pattern of TC genesis location in either observation or simulation. By having one of GPI‐related variables (i.e., low‐level absolute vorticity, middle‐level relative humidity, vertical wind shear, and potential intensity) change with the others set to stable while testing single variable, the contributions of environmental fields associated with GPI are examined and a possible cause of TC genesis biases is revealed. Due to the overestimated humidity in the east region of western North Pacific, the simulated GPI high value region is to the east of the observed one, and more TCs in the downscaled CAM5 model generate farther east than in observation. These results imply that the biases in simulated humidity and thus TC genesis location may be reduced by correcting the evaporation rate in the deep convection scheme, since the evaporation rate is closely related to environment humidity change as suggested by previous studies.

The Atlantic Niño/Niña, one of the dominant interannual variability in the equatorial Atlantic, exerts prominent influence on the Earth’s climate, but its prediction skill shown previously was unsatisfactory and limited to two to three months. By diagnosing the recently released North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) models, we find that the Atlantic Niño/Niña prediction skills are improved, with the multi-model ensemble (MME) reaching five months. The prediction skills are season-dependent. Specifically, they show a marked dip in boreal spring, suggesting that the Atlantic Niño/Niña prediction suffers a “spring predictability barrier” like ENSO. The prediction skill is higher for Atlantic Niña than for Atlantic Niño, and better in the developing phase than in the decaying phase. The amplitude bias of the Atlantic Niño/Niña is primarily attributed to the amplitude bias in the annual cycle of the equatorial sea surface temperature (SST). The anomaly correlation coefficient scores of the Atlantic Niño/Niña, to a large extent, depend on the prediction skill of the Niño3.4 index in the preceding boreal winter, implying that the precedent ENSO may greatly affect the development of Atlantic Niño/Niña in the following boreal summer.

Abstract The response of tropical cyclone (TC) destructive potential to global warming is an open issue. A number of previous studies have ignored the effect of TC size change in the context of global warming, which resulted in a significant underestimation of the TC destructive potential. The lack of reliable and consistent historical data on TC size limits the confident estimation of the linkage between the observed trend in TC size and that in sea surface temperature (SST) under the background of global climate warming. A regional atmospheric model is used in the present study to investigate the response of TC size and TC destructive potential to increases in SST. The results show that a large-scale ocean warming can lead to not only TC intensification but also TC expansion. The TC size increase in response to the ocean warming is possibly attributed to the increase in atmospheric convective instability in the TC outer region below the middle troposphere, which facilitates the local development of grid-scale ascending motion, low-level convergence and the acceleration of tangential winds. The numerical results indicate that TCs will become stronger, larger, and unexpectedly more destructive under global warming.

Abstract The extreme El Niño (EN) events in 1997/98 and 1982/83, referred to as super EN, exerted remarkable global influence. A super EN was anticipated on the way in early 2014 but failed to materialize toward the end of 2014. Whilst the scientific community was still puzzling about the cause of the aborted EN event in 2014, the remnants of the decaying warming in late 2014 unexpectedly reignited since February 2015 and grew into a super EN by the end of 2015. Understanding the onset mechanism of the 2015 EN event and its differences from past super EN events is crucial for improving EN prediction in a changing climate. Our observational analyses and modeling studies demonstrate that the principal difference between the 2015 EN and the past super ENs lies in exceptionally strong and consecutive occurrence of westerly wind burst events that turned around unfavorable ocean thermocline conditions in tropical western Pacific in early 2015, reigniting rapidly the surface warming in the eastern Pacific. By August the sea surface temperature anomalies reached a critical amplitude similar to that of the past super ENs; positive atmosphere-ocean feedbacks further amplify this warm episode into a super EN by the end of 2015.

The effects of air–sea coupling over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) on the eastward propagating boreal winter intraseasonal oscillation (MJO) are investigated by comparing a fully coupled and a partially decoupled Indian Ocean experiment using the SINTEX-F coupled model. Air–sea coupling over the TIO significantly enhances the intensity of the eastward propagations of the MJO along the 5°–10°S zonal areas. The zonal asymmetry of the SST anomaly (SSTA) is responsible for the enhanced eastward propagation. A positive SSTA appears to the east of the MJO convection, which results in the boundary layer moisture convergence and positively feeds back to the MJO convection. In addition, the air–sea interaction effect on the eastward propagation of the MJO is related to the interannual variations of the TIO. Air–sea coupling enhances (reduces) the eastward-propagating spectrum during the negative Indian Ocean dipole mode and positive Indian Ocean basin mode. Such phase dependence is attributed to the role of the background mean westerly in affecting the wind–evaporation–SST feedback. Air–sea coupling (decoupling) enhances (reduces) the zonal asymmetry of the low-level specific humidity, and thus the eastward propagation spectrum of the MJO.

The spatio–temporal evolution of the Pacific blocking frequency (PBF) that is based on a two–dimensional blocking index is investigated during the recent 40–winter (1979/80–2018/19) months (December–January–February). It is found that maximum PBF appears in January within the key area of 140° E–160° W, 50°–70° N. The key–area Pacific blocking in January is more active during the first (1980–1988) and the third (2009–2019) periods than during the second period (1989–2008). There is a positive 500 hPa–geopotential height (Z500) anomaly over the mid–latitude Pacific and a negative one over the high latitude area between the first two periods (second minus first). This pattern can cause an anomalous westerly circulation over the mid–high Pacific sector, which indicates a weakening of the Pacific blocking activity during the second period. This connects to a positive two–meter air temperature (T2m) anomaly over the northeastern Asia and mid–western Pacific, and a negative one over the high–latitude area. The difference of Z500 between the third and the second periods (third minus first) is opposite to that between the second and the first periods, which leads to more Pacific blocking events during the third period. This is related to a positive T2m anomaly over the high–latitude area and a negative one over the mid–latitude area of Asia and the western Pacific. Furthermore, the correlation coefficient between the variables (Z500, T2m, 200 hPa–zonal wind) and the key–area PBF confirms the above results.

The intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) of atmospheric temperature at 2 m over East Asia (EA) in boreal summer is investigated through NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data for the period of 1979–2013. It is found that the surface air temperature in EA propagates on a 10–30-day time scale and exhibits a southeastward propagation characteristic. The average zonal and meridional phase speed of the intraseasonal air temperature anomaly is about 2.6° longitude and 1.7° latitude per day, respectively. The advection by the mean wind and the advection of the summer mean temperature by the intraseasonal wind primarily contribute to the propagation of the intraseasonal temperature perturbation through the diagnosis of the temperature budget. An upper-tropospheric geopotential positive (negative) height anomaly is closely associated with a low-level warmer (cooler) air temperature anomaly and both anomalies propagate southeastward in a similar way. A wave activity flux analysis reveals that mid-latitude Rossby wave energy also propagates southeastward, consistent with the upper-tropospheric geopotential height propagation. This indicates that in addition to low-level advection mechanism, upper-tropospheric forcing through the hydrostatic relationship is another possible mechanism. A further statistical analysis indicates that heat waves in EA summer are modulated by the southeastward-propagating intraseasonal temperature mode.

The Weather Research Forecast model (WRF) is used to examine the destructive potential of tropical cyclone (TC) Shanshan (2006) at various horizontal resolutions (7.5 km⁻1 km) with different cumulus parameterization (CP) schemes. It is found that the calculated Power Dissipation Index (PDI) increases while the size-dependent destructive potential (PDS) decreases as the grid spacing decreases for all CP-scheme simulations, which indicates a weak model convergence in both PDI and PDS calculations. Moreover, it is change of the storm intensity and inner-core size that lead to the non-convergence of PDI and PDS respectively. At a higher resolution, convection becomes more explicitly resolved, which leads to larger diabatic heating. As a result, the radial pressure gradient force (PGF) increases, and the radius of maximum wind (RMW) decreases. The area of strong diabatic heating subsequently becomes closer to the TC center, which further increases the TC intensity and the PGF near the eyewall. With such a positive feedback loop, the PGF increases and the RMW decreases as the resolution increases. Note that a perfect model should converge well in the simulation of both TC intensity and size, and thus converge in the PDS. For some CP experiments, the calculated PDS convergence is relatively strong, but it is a result of offset between the non-convergent simulations of TC intensity and size. In contrast, the Grell⁻Freitas scheme exhibits a stronger convergence in the simulations of TC intensity and size, although the convergence in PDS is relatively weak, but is closer to the truth.

The possible role of air⁻sea latent heat flux (LHF) in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) is investigated using state-of-the-art satellite and analysis datasets. The authors conducted composite analyses of several meteorological variables after identifying developing and non-developing tropical disturbances from June to October of the period 2000 to 2009. Compared to the non-developing disturbances, increased LHF underlying the developing disturbances enhances boundary⁻layer specific humidity. The secondary circulation then transports more boundary⁻layer moisture inward and upward and, thus, induces a stronger moist core in the middle troposphere. Accordingly, the air in the core region ascends following a warmer moist adiabat than that in the environment and results in a stronger upper-level warm core, which is associated with a stronger near-surface tangential wind based on the thermal wind balance. This enlarges the magnitude and negative radial gradient of LHF and, thereby, further increases boundary⁻layer specific humidity. A tropical depression forms when the near-surface tangential wind increases to a certain extent as a result of the continuing positive feedback between near-surface wind and LHF. The results suggest an important role of wind-driven LHF in TC genesis over the WNP.

ABSTRACT: The dependence of tropical cyclone (TC) intensification on the Coriolis parameter was investigated in an idealized hurricane model. By specifying an initial balanced vortex on an f-plane, we observed faster TC development under lower planetary vorticity environment than under higher planetary vorticity environment. The diagnosis of the model outputs indicates that the distinctive evolution characteristics arise from the extent to which the boundary layer imbalance is formed and maintained in the presence of surface friction. Under lower planetary vorticity environment, stronger and deeper subgradient inflow develops due to Ekman pumping effect, which leads to greater boundary layer moisture convergence and condensational heating. The strengthened heating further accelerates the inflow by lowing central pressure further. This positive feedback loop eventually leads to distinctive evolution characteristics.The outer size (represented by the radius of gale-force wind) and the eye of the final TC state also depend on the Coriolis parameter. The TC tends to have larger (smaller) outer size and eye under higher (lower) planetary vorticity environment. Whereas the radius of maximum wind or the eye size in the current setting is primarily determined by inertial stability, the TC outer size is mainly controlled by environmental absolute angular momentum. Keywords: tropical cyclone intensification, Coriolis parameter, boundary layer inflow

The tropical surface wind speed in boreal winter reaches a maximum near Taiwan. This stable wind resource may be used for future clean energy development. How this surface wind energy source has changed in past 141 years is investigated using the 20th century reanalysis dataset and CMIP5 models. Our observational analysis shows that the surface wind speed experienced a weakening trend in the past 141 years (1871 - 2010). The average decreasing rate is around -1.4 m s-1 per century. The decrease is primarily attributed to the relative sea surface temperature (SST) cooling in the subtropical North Pacific, which forces a large-scale low-level anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly in situ and is thus responsible for the southerly trend near Taiwan. The relative SST trend pattern is attributed mainly to the greenhouse gas effect associated with anthropogenic activities. The southerly trend near Taiwan is more pronounced in the boreal winter than in summer. Such seasonal difference is attributed to the reversed seasonal mean wind, which promotes more efficient positive feedback in the boreal winter. The CMIP5 historical run analysis reveals that climate models capture less SST warming and large-scale anti-cyclonic circulation in the subtropical North Pacific, but the simulated weakening trend of the surface wind speed near Taiwan is too small.

Abstract In all eukaryotes, acetylation of histone lysine residues correlates with transcription activation. Whether histone acetylation is a cause or consequence of transcription is debated. One model suggests that transcription promotes the recruitment and/or activation of acetyltransferases, and histone acetylation occurs as a consequence of ongoing transcription. However, the extent to which transcription shapes the global protein acetylation landscapes is not known. Here, we show that global protein acetylation remains virtually unaltered after acute transcription inhibition. Transcription inhibition ablates the co-transcriptionally occurring ubiquitylation of H2BK120 but does not reduce histone acetylation. The combined inhibition of transcription and CBP/p300 further demonstrates that acetyltransferases remain active and continue to acetylate histones independently of transcription. Together, these results show that histone acetylation is not a mere consequence of transcription; acetyltransferase recruitment and activation are uncoupled from the act of transcription, and histone and non-histone protein acetylation are sustained in the absence of ongoing transcription.

Science communication training can help scientists engage diverse audiences with the promise and process of science, helping to strengthen science literacy and preserve public trust in science. But not all scientists have access to such training. To address this shortfall, we have embedded a suite of science communication courses in the Life Sciences Program, the largest undergraduate science program at McMaster University in Hamilton, Ontario. A foundational course focuses on making science accessible through inclusive language and media, while more advanced courses emphasize the importance of understanding and centering the values, beliefs, questions, and critiques of audiences, and using narratives and rhetoric to inform, inspire, and ignite change. Throughout the curriculum, students engage with and contribute to the scholarship of science communication. They graduate with skills that serve them in diverse careers. In this article, we outline the structure of our curriculum and detail key components of our science communication courses. We also describe a student-led assessment of our curriculum that highlights strengths and opportunities for improvement. Ultimately, we strive to provide a compelling rationale for teaching science communication at the undergraduate level by sharing a framework of replicable pedagogical practices for engaging large cohorts of students with both the theory and practice of science communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Friction and wear of metals are critically influenced by the microstructures of the bodies constituting the tribological contact. Understanding the microstructural evolution taking place over the lifetime of a tribological system therefore is crucial for strategically designing tribological systems with tailored friction and wear properties. Here, we focus on the single-crystalline High-Entropy Alloy CoCrFeMnNi that is prone to form twins at room temperature. Deformation twins feature a pronounced orientation dependence with a tension-compression anisotropy, a distinct strain release in an extended volume and robust onset stresses. This makes deformation twinning an ideal probe to experimentally investigate the complex stress fields occurring in a tribological contact. Our results unambiguously show a grain orientation dependence of twinning under tribological load. It is clearly shown, that twinning cannot be attributed to a single crystal direction parallel to a sample coordinate axes. With deformation twins in the microstructure, stress field models can be validated to make them useable for all different tribological systems.

The induction generator effect (IGE) and the open-loop modal proximity (OLMP) are two different reasons why sub-synchronous oscillations (SSOs) in a series-compensated power system (SCPS) may occur. The IGE attributes the growing SSOs to negative resistance, while the OLMP explains the SSO mechanism from the standpoint of modal conditions. In this paper, we investigate the connections between the IGE and the OLMP through equivalent RLC circuit and open-loop modal analysis. Our investigation is conducted for two types of series-compensated power systems where either a synchronous generator or a DFIG is connected at the sending end. The investigation reveals the conditions, in which the IGE and the OLMP may jointly cause the growing SSOs, i.e., both the IGE and the OLMP can explain why the growing SSOs occur. Furthermore, the investigation indicates that the IGE and the OLMP may be totally irrelevant and lead to growing SSOs separately. This implies that it is possible that in a SCPS, the growing SSOs are only due to the IGE, and the OLMP is non-existent, and vice versa. Hence, when the growing SSOs occurs in a SCPS, examination based on both the IGE and the OLMP should be carefully conducted in order to find if the oscillatory instability is due to the IGE, or the OLMP, or both of them.

Abstract Background Female migrant domestic workers (MDW), approximately 8.5 million globally, often live in their employer’s home under vulnerable conditions. In Hong Kong, MDWs currently comprise 5% of the population. This study was conducted to assess the association between employment conditions and mental health, and the mediating roles stress and job satisfaction have, among female MDWs in Hong Kong. Methods Participants completed an online cross-sectional survey. A total of 1,965 survey were collected between August 2020 and August 2021. Questions in the survey were related to MDWs background information, employment conditions, stress, job satisfaction, and two mental health outcomes: anxiety and depression. An employment conditions score was created to assess the cumulative effect poor employment conditions had on mental health. A multicategorical parallel mediation analysis was used to assess the direct effect employment conditions have on mental health and the indirect effects through stress and job satisfaction. Results Overall, 17.7% of MDWs were reported to be suffering from anxiety and 30.8% from depression. An increase in poor employment conditions was statistically associated with an increase in both outcomes, while stress levels and job satisfaction mediated this association. Conclusions The findings call for increased scrutiny of employment conditions and mental well-being of MDWs.

We present three cases of chronic follicular conjunctivitis resulting from the zoonotic transmission of Chlamydia felis from domestic cats. Our objective is to raise awareness regarding the potential zoonotic transmission of Chlamydia felis from domestic cats and describe the methodology for definitive pathogen identification using Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) and subsequent sequence analysis, a useful tool in the identification of these rare pathogens. We discuss the factors that could be contributing to the potential under-diagnosis of zoonotic C. felis infections and propose a treatment regime for cases of C. felis-related conjunctivitis.

Abstract The label-free identification of individual proteins from liquid samples by surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) spectroscopy is a highly desirable goal in biomedical diagnostics. However, the small Raman scattering cross-section of most (bio-)molecules requires a means to strongly amplify their Raman signal for successful measurement, especially for single molecules. This amplification can be achieved in a plasmonic hotspot that forms between two adjacent gold nanospheres. However, the small (≈1−2 nm) gaps typically required for single-molecule measurements are not accessible for most proteins. A useful strategy would thus involve dimer structures with gaps large enough to accommodate single proteins, whilst providing sufficient field enhancement for single-molecule SERS. Here, we report on using a DNA origami scaffold for tip-to-tip alignment of gold nanorods with an average gap size of 8 nm. The gaps are accessible to streptavidin and thrombin, which are captured at the plasmonic hotspot by specific anchoring sites on the origami template. The field enhancement achieved for the nanorod dimers is sufficient for single-protein SERS spectroscopy with sub-second integration times. This design for SERS probes composed of DNA origami with accessible hotspots promotes future use for single-molecule biodiagnostics in the near-infrared range.

Robots and smart technologies are becoming part of everyday life and private households. While this automation of mundane tasks typically creates pragmatic benefits (e.g., efficiency, accuracy, time savings), it may also come with psychological losses, such as in meaning, competence, or responsibility. Depending on the domain (e.g., AI-assisted surgery, automated decision making), especially the user’s felt responsibility could have far-reaching consequences. The present research systematically explores such effects, building a more structured base for responsible automation in human–computer interaction (HCI). Based on a framework of seven dimensions, study 1 (N = 122) evaluates users’ reflections on automating five mundane tasks (e.g., gardening, paperwork) and identifies reasons for or against automation in different domains (e.g., creativity, care work, decision making). Study 2 (N = 57) provides deeper insights into effects of automation on responsibility perceptions. Based on the example of a vacuum cleaner robot, an experimental laboratory study contrasted a non-robotic manual vacuum cleaner to a robot, whereby the user’s perceptions of device agency (higher for the robot) and own competence (higher for the manual device) were central mediators for the perceived responsibility for the result. We position our findings as part of a broader idea of responsible design and automation from a user-centered design perspective.

Mildly irradiated mini-Neptunes have densities potentially consistent with them hosting substantial liquid-water oceans (“Hycean” planets). The presence of CO _2 and simultaneous absence of ammonia (NH _3 ) in their atmospheres has been proposed as a fingerprint of such worlds. JWST observations of K2-18b, the archetypal Hycean, have found the presence of CO _2 and the depletion of NH _3 to 4 μ m region, where CO _2 and CO features dominate: magma ocean models suggest a systematically lower CO _2 /CO ratio than estimated from free-chemistry retrieval, indicating that deeper observations of this spectral region may be able to distinguish between oceans of liquid water and magma on mini-Neptunes.

The introduction and cleavage of protecting groups and the subsequent release of protected molecules is an important tool in synthetic organic chemistry. When polyfunctionalized substrates are involved, the reactivity of similar functional groups must be differentiated and selectively switched on and off. A very useful switching agent is visible or UV-light in photoremovable protecting groups (PRPG), allowing the PG release upon interaction with electromagnetic radiation. The reverse principle is the release of a protected molecule, which is accompanied by emission of light, i.e., chemiluminescent protecting groups (CLPG). This principle is proposed and investigated for phenylalanine (using ureido carboxylic acid 2 and its methyl ester derivative 3) and the carbamate derivatives of paracetamol 4 and L-menthol 7, protected as the corresponding urea-/carbamate-coumaranones 5A, 5E, 6 and 8, respectively. While the carbamate derivative 6 released the protected substrate with a short and strong emission of blue light when treated with a base under atmospheric oxygen, 8 had to be treated additionally with potassium hydroxide in boiling ethanol to completely cleave the PG. Both urea-coumaranone derivatives 5A/5E had a flash-like CL without release of the protected amino acid and, thus, were converted into a fluorescent protecting group (FPG).

The South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) is one of the most crucial climate components in boreal summer. The future potential changes in the SASM have great importance for climate change adaption and policy setting in this populous region. To understand the SASM changes and their link with the global warming of 1.58-58C above the preindustrial level, we investigate the changes in the SASM circulation and precipitation based on a large-ensemble simulation conducted with Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2). With the global mean surface temperature (GMST) increase, the large-ensemble mean of SASM circulation is projected to weaken almost linearly while the precipitation and precipitable water are projected to enhance quasi-linearly. A double anticyclone along the tropical Indian Ocean is a major anomalous circulation pattern for each additional degree of warming and is responsible for the weakening of the lower-level westerlies. The decreased upper-level land-sea thermal contrast (TCupper) is the main thermal driver for the weakening of the SASM circulation while the lower-level thermal contrast contributes little. The nonlinearly decreased TCupper is mainly related to the temperature response to the increased CO2 forcing and convection-induced latent heat release in the tropics. The increase in the SASMprecipitation is mainly due to the quasilinearly increased positive contribution of the thermodynamic component, while the dynamic component has a negative impact. Both horizontal moisture advection and moisture convergence contribute to the precipitation increase, and moisture convergence plays a dominant role. These results provide new insight that the SASM changes can be roughly scaled by the GMST changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Liquid droplets of biomolecules play key roles in organizing cellular behavior, and are also technologically relevant, yet physical studies of dynamic processes of such droplets have generally been lacking. Here, we investigate and quantify the dynamics of formation of dilute internal inclusions, i.e., vacuoles, within a model system consisting of liquid droplets of DNA ‘nanostar’ particles. When acted upon by DNA-cleaving restriction enzymes, these DNA droplets exhibit cycles of appearance, growth, and bursting of internal vacuoles. Analysis of vacuole growth shows their radius increases linearly in time. Further, vacuoles pop upon reaching the droplet interface, leading to droplet motion driven by the osmotic pressure of restriction fragments captured in the vacuole. We develop a model that accounts for the linear nature of vacuole growth, and the pressures associated with motility, by describing the dynamics of diffusing restriction fragments. The results illustrate the complex non-equilibrium dynamics possible in biomolecular condensates.

Abstract Artificial intelligence (AI) methods have been used widely in power transformer fault diagnosis with notable developments in solutions for big data problems. Training data is essential to accurately train AI models. The volume, scope and variety of data samples contribute significantly to the success and reliability of diagnostic outcomes. This paper provides a comprehensive review and comparison of different augmentation methods used to generate reliable data samples for minority and majority classes to balance the diversity and distribution of dissolved gas analysis (DGA) datasets. The augmentation method presented in this paper combines three common AI models—the Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree, and k‐Nearest Neighbour (KNN)—to assess performance for diagnostic fault determination and classification, with comparator assessment using no data augmentation. Comparative analysis of the hybrid models uses evaluation metrics including accuracy, precision, recall, specificity, F‐score, G‐mean, and the area under receiver operation characteristic (Auc). Experimental results presented in this paper confirm that the data augmentation applied to AI models can resolve difficulties in imbalanced data distribution and provide significant improvements for fault diagnosis, particularly for minority classes.

Abstract The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of arterial hypertension (AH) and of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) on cognitive course in the neurocognitive disorder (NCD) cohort RIFADE which enrolled patients with NCD due to Alzheimer’s disease (AD), vascular NCD (vNCD), and mixed NCD (AD + vNCD = mNCD). Multiple risk factors (RF), including AH and OSA, that contribute to the development of various kinds of dementia have been identified in previous studies. Studies that observed AH lacked investigation of long-term effects and did not isolate it from other RF. Studies involving OSA as a risk factor did not include participants with all stages of NCD. 126 subjects were screened for AH and OSA. Repeated cognitive measurements were performed with the DemTect as primary outcome and the clock drawing test as secondary outcome measure. 90 patients had AH (71.4%) and 40 patients had OSA (31.7%). RF-status had a significant effect on cognitive outcome in models with RF as single factors (AH p = 0.027, OSA p