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Savannas are characterized by water scarcity and degradation, making them highly vulnerable to increased uncertainties in water availability resulting from climate change. This poses a significant threat to ecosystem services and rural livelihoods that depend on them. In addition, the lack of consensus among climate models on precipitation change makes it difficult for land managers to plan for the future. Therefore, Savanna rangeland management needs to develop strategies that can sustain Savanna resilience and avoid tipping points under an uncertain future climate.Our study aims to analyse the impacts of climate change and rangeland management on degradation in Savanna ecosystems of southern Africa, providing insights for the management of semi‐arid Savannas under uncertain conditions worldwide. To achieve this, we simulated the effects of projected changes in temperature and precipitation, as predicted by 10 global climate models, on water resources and vegetation (cover, functional diversity, tipping points (transition from grass‐dominated to shrub‐dominated vegetation)). We simulated three different rangeland management options (herbivore communities dominated by grazers, by browser and by mixed feeders), each with low and high animal densities, using the ecohydrological model EcoHyD.Our results identified intensive grazing as the primary contributor to the increased risk of degradation in response to changing climatic conditions across all climate change scenarios. This degradation encompassed a reduction in available water for plant growth within the context of predicted climate change. It also entails a decline in the overall vegetation cover, the loss of functionally important plant species and the inefficient utilization of available water resources, leading to earlier tipping points.Synthesis and applications. Our findings underscore that, in the face of climate uncertainty, farmers' most effective strategy for securing their livelihoods and ecosystem stability is to integrate browsers and apply management of mixed herbivore communities. This management approach not only significantly delays or averts tipping points but also maintained greater plant functional diversity, fostering a more robust and resilient ecosystem that acts as a vital buffer against adverse climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forage offtake, leaf biomass and soil organic carbon storage are important ecosystem services of permanent grasslands, which are determined by climatic conditions, management and functional diversity. However, functional diversity is not independent of climate and management, and it is important to understand the role of functional diversity and these dependencies for ecosystem services of permanent grasslands, since functional diversity may play a key role in mediating impacts of changing conditions. Large-scale ecosystem models are used to assess ecosystem functions within a consistent framework for multiple climate and management scenarios. However, large-scale models of permanent grasslands rarely consider functional diversity. We implemented a representation of functional diversity based on the competitor, stress-tolerator and ruderal (CSR) theory and the global spectrum of plant form and function into the Lund Potsdam Jena managed Land (LPJmL) dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) forming LPJmL-CSR. Using a Bayesian calibration method, we parameterised new plant functional types (PFTs) and used these to assess forage offtake, leaf biomass, soil organic carbon storage and community composition of three permanent grassland sites. These are a temperate grassland and a hot and a cold steppe for which we simulated several management scenarios with different defoliation intensities and resource limitations. LPJmL-CSR captured the grassland dynamics well under observed conditions and showed improved results for forage offtake, leaf biomass and/or soil organic carbon (SOC) compared to the original LPJmL 5 version at the three grassland sites. Furthermore, LPJmL-CSR was able to reproduce the trade-offs associated with the global spectrum of plant form and function, and similar strategies emerged independent of the site-specific conditions (e.g. the C and R PFTs were more resource exploitative than the S PFT). Under different resource limitations, we observed a shift in the community composition. At the hot steppe, for example, irrigation led to a more balanced community composition with similar C, S and R PFT shares of aboveground biomass. Our results show that LPJmL-CSR allows for explicit analysis of the adaptation of grassland vegetation to changing conditions while explicitly considering functional diversity. The implemented mechanisms and trade-offs are universally applicable, paving the way for large-scale application. Applying LPJmL-CSR for different climate change and functional diversity scenarios may generate a range of future grassland productivities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biocrusts are ecosystem engineers in drylands and structure the landscape through their ecohydrological effects. They regulate soil infiltration and evaporation but also surface water redistribution, providing important resources for vascular vegetation. Spatially-explicit ecohydrological models are useful tools to explore such ecohydrological mechanisms, but biocrusts have rarely been included in them. We contribute to closing this gap and assess how biocrusts shape spatio-temporal water fluxes and availability in a dryland landscape and how landscape hydrology is affected by climate-change induced shifts in the biocrust community. We extended the spatially-explicit, process-based ecohydrological dryland model EcoHyD by a biocrust layer which modifies water in- and outputs from the soil and affects surface runoff. The model was parameterized for a dryland hillslope in South-East Spain using field and literature data. We assessed the effect of biocrusts on landscape-scale soil moisture distribution, plant-available water and the hydrological processes behind it. To quantify the biocrust effects, we ran the model with and without biocrusts for a wet and dry year. Finally, we compared the effect of incipient and well-developed cyanobacteria- and lichen biocrusts on surface hydrology to evaluate possible paths forward if biocrust communities change due to climate change. Our model reproduced the runoff source-sink patterns typical of the landscape. The spatial differentiation of soil moisture in deeper layers matched the observed distribution of vascular vegetation. Biocrusts in the model led to higher water availability overall and in vegetated areas of the landscape and that this positive effect in part also held for a dry year. Compared to bare soil and incipient biocrusts, well-developed biocrusts protected the soil from evaporation thus preserving soil moisture despite lower infiltration while at the same time redistributing water toward downhill vegetation. Biocrust cover is vital for water redistribution and plant-available water but potential changes of biocrust composition and cover can reduce their ability of being a water source and sustaining dryland vegetation. The process-based model used in this study is a promising tool to further quantify and assess long-term scenarios of climate change and how it affects ecohydrological feedbacks that shape and stabilize dryland landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Questions: Soil resource heterogeneity influences the outcome of plant–plant interactions and, consequently, species co‐existence and diversity patterns. The magnitude and direction of heterogeneity effects vary widely, and the processes underlying such variations are not fully understood. In this study, we explored how and under what resource conditions small‐scale heterogeneity modulates grassland plant diversity. Location: Oderhänge Mallnow, Potsdam, Brandenburg, Germany. Methods: We expanded the individual‐based plant community model (IBC‐grass) to incorporate dynamic below‐ground resource maps, simulating spatial heterogeneity of resource availability. Empirical centimeter‐scale data of soil C/N ratio were integrated into the model, accounting for both configurational and compositional heterogeneity. We then analyzed the interplay between small‐scale heterogeneity and resource availability on the interaction and co‐existence of plant species and overall diversity. Results: Our results showed significant differences between the low‐ and high‐resource scenarios, with both configurational and compositional heterogeneity having a positive effect on species richness and Simpson's diversity, but only under low‐resource conditions. As compositional heterogeneity in the fine‐scale C/N ratio increased, we observed a positive shift in Simpson's diversity and species richness, with the highest effects at the highest level of variability tested. We observed little to no effect in nutrient‐rich scenarios, and a shift to negative effects at the intermediate resource level. The study demonstrates that site‐specific resource levels underpin how fine‐scale heterogeneity influences plant diversity and species co‐existence, and partly explains the divergent effects recorded in different empirical studies. Conclusions: This study provides mechanistic insights into the complex relationship between resource heterogeneity and diversity patterns. It highlights the context‐dependent effects of small‐scale heterogeneity, which can be positive under low‐resource, neutral under high‐resource, and negative under intermediate‐resource conditions. These findings provide a foundation for future investigations into small‐scale heterogeneity–diversity relationships, contributing to a deeper understanding of the processes that promote species co‐existence in plant communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under a changing climate, soil fungal communities will increasingly be subject to periods of heat stress. These periods can affect the performance of individual fungi and their competition for space and resources. Competition between fungi is strongly controlled by the exudation of inhibitory compounds, resulting in different competitive outcomes that range from overgrowth of the inferior competitor to a deadlock, where the competing fungi inhibit each other. As heat stress can alter the competitive outcome between fungi, the community composition can also change strongly. So far, a general understanding of the mechanisms that drive the competitive outcome between fungi under heat stress is still missing. However, this understanding is essential to assess important community functions, such as decomposition or mediation of plant nutrition, which strongly depend on the fungal community composition. Here, we used a partial differential equation (PDE) model simulating two fungal competitors in a two‐dimensional space, to mechanistically explain the observed change of fungal competition under heat stress. The model describes mycelial growth, the production and secretion of antifungal compounds and the synthesis of heat shock proteins of interacting colonies. We found a heat stress‐induced lag phase favouring the accumulation of antifungal compounds and the build‐up of inhibitor fields. This led to a qualitative change of the competitive outcome, reducing the occurrence of overgrowth by two thirds. The changes in competitive outcome favoured slower growing species, which benefit more strongly from the additional time during a stress‐induced lag to build up a defence or block territory that would otherwise be quickly claimed by faster competitors. Our work is an important step towards understanding how environmental changes may lead to qualitative changes in competitive outcomes. Our results show the importance of explicitly including species interactions into studies of climate change effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forage supply and soil organic carbon storage are two important ecosystem functions of permanent grasslands, which are determined by climatic conditions, management and functional diversity. However, functional diversity is not independent of climate and management, and it is important to understand the role of functional diversity and these dependencies for ecosystem functions of permanent grasslands. Especially since functional diversity may play a key role in mediating impacts of changing conditions. Large-scale ecosystem models are used to assess ecosystem functions within a consistent framework for multiple climate and management scenarios. However, large-scale models of permanent grasslands rarely consider functional diversity. We implemented a representation of functional diversity based on the CSR theory and the global spectrum of plant form and function into the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model forming LPJmL-CSR. Using a Bayesian calibration method, we parameterised new plant functional types and used these to assess forage supply, soil organic carbon storage and community composition of three permanent grassland sites. These are a temperate grassland, a hot and a cold steppe for which we simulated several management scenarios with different defoliation intensities and resource limitations. LPJmL-CSR captured the grassland dynamics well under observed conditions and showed improved results for forage supply and/or SOC compared to LPJmL 5.3 at three grassland sites. Furthermore, LPJmL-CSR was able to reproduce the trade-offs associated with the global spectrum of plant form and function and similar strategies emerged independent of the site specific conditions (e.g. the C- and R-PFTs were more resource exploitative than S-PFTs). Under different resource limitations, we observed a shift of the community composition. At the hot steppe for example, irrigation led to a more balanced community composition with similar C-, S- and R-PFT shares of above-ground biomass. Our results show, that LPJmL-CSR allows for explicit analysis of the adaptation of grassland vegetation to changing conditions while explicitly considering functional diversity. The implemented mechanisms and trade-offs are universally applicable paving the way for large-scale application. Applying LPJmL-CSR for different climate change and functional diversity scenarios may generate a range of future grassland productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Savannas are characterized by the coexistence of two contrasting plant life‐forms: woody and herbaceous vegetation. During the last decades, there has been a global trend of an increase in woody cover and the spread of shrubs and trees into areas that were previously dominated by grasses. This process, termed bush encroachment, is associated with severe losses of ecosystem functions and typically difficult to reverse. It is assumed to be an example of a critical transition between two alternative stable states. Overgrazing due to unsustainable rangeland management has been identified as one of the main causes of this transition, as it can trigger several self‐reinforcing feedback loops. However, the dynamic role of grazing within such feedback loops has received less attention. We used a set of coupled differential equations to describe the competition between shrubs and grasses, as well as plant biomass consumption via grazing and browsing. Grazers were assumed to receive a certain level of care from farmers, so that grazer densities emerge dynamically from the combined effect of vegetation abundance and farmer support. We quantified all self‐reinforcing and self‐dampening feedback loops at play and analyzed their relative importance in shaping system (in‐)stability. Bistability, the presence of a grass dominated and a shrub dominated state, emerges for intermediate levels of farmer support due to positive feedback that arises from competition between shrubs and grasses and from herbivory. We furthermore demonstrate that disturbances, such as drought events, trigger abrupt transitions from the grass dominated to the shrub dominated state and that the system becomes more susceptible to disturbances with increasing farmer support. Our results thus highlight the potential of interaction networks in combinations with feedback loop analysis for improving our understanding of critical transitions in general, and bush encroachment in particular. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maintaining the resilience and functionality of savannas is key to sustaining the ecosystem services they provide. This maintenance is largely dependent on the resilience of savannas to stressors, such as prolonged droughts. The resilience to drought is largely determined by the interaction of herbivores and the functional composition of vegetation. So far, our understanding and ability to predict the response of savannas to drought under different types of rangeland use and as a function of vegetation composition are still limited.In this study, we used the ecohydrological, spatially‐explicit savanna model EcoHyD to determine if the resilience of a savanna rangeland towards prolonged droughts can be enhanced by the choice of rangeland use type (grazer‐dominated, mixed‐feeders or browser‐dominated) and animal density. We evaluated the ability of a Namibian savanna system to withstand droughts and recover from droughts based on its perennial grass cover and the overall species composition.Generally, we determined a low resilience under high grazer densities. Most importantly, we found that functional diversification of herbivores and plants acted as resilience insurance against droughts, leading to greater resistance and recovery of perennial grasses. In particular, a higher proportion of herbivores allowed for higher resilience, probably also due to a short‐term switch to more drought‐resistant or unpalatable species.In this case, herbivore diversification was of high self‐regulatory value by reestablishing trophic complexity, reducing the need for additional management interventions.Synthesis and applications: Savanna systems will be more resistant to drought if (i) a dense perennial grass cover is maintained, protecting the topsoil from heat‐induced water losses and erosion, encompassing functionally important species that are particularly well adapted to water stress and that are palatable, if (ii) the grazing pressure is adjusted to the productivity of the system, and (iii) the herbivore community includes browsers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: What are the main findings? Principal component regressions revealed the climate sensitivity of Tibetan arid desert scrubs. Plant nutrient traits and soil nutrient availability regulate desert scrubs' climate sensitivity. What is the implication of the main finding? Scrubs' sensitivity to temperature is mainly regulated by the nitrogen contents of soils and leaves. Scrubs' sensitivity to precipitation is affected by the leaf carbon content of dominant species. Neither soil nor plant nutritional properties alone can well explain scrubs' sensitivity to droughts. Climate models predict the further intensification of global warming in the future. Drylands, as one of the most fragile ecosystems, are vulnerable to changes in temperature, precipitation, and drought extremes. However, it is still unclear how plant traits interact with soil properties to regulate drylands' responses to seasonal and interannual climate change. The vegetation sensitivity index (VSI) of desert scrubs in the Qaidam Basin (NE Tibetan Plateau) was assessed by summarizing the relative contributions of temperature (SGST), precipitation (SGSP), and drought (temperature vegetation dryness index, STVDI) to the dynamics of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during plant growing months yearly from 2000 to 2015. Nutrient contents, including carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium in topsoils and leaves of plants, were measured for seven types of desert scrub communities at 22 sites in the summer of 2016. Multiple linear and structural equation models were used to reveal how leaf and soil nutrient regimes affect desert scrubs' sensitivity to climate variability. The results showed that total soil nitrogen (STN) and leaf carbon content (LC), respectively, explained 25.9% and 17.0% of the VSI variance across different scrub communities. Structural equation modeling (SEM) revealed that STN and total soil potassium (STK) mediated desert scrub's VSI indirectly via SGST (with standardized path strength of −0.35 and +0.32, respectively) while LC indirectly via SGST and SGSP (with standardized path strength of −0.31 and −0.19, respectively). Neither soil nor leave nutrient contents alone could explain the VSI variance across different sites, except for the indirect influences of STN and STK via STVDI (−0.18 and 0.16, respectively). Overall, this study disentangled the relative importance of plant nutrient traits and soil nutrient availability in mediating the climatic sensitivity of desert scrubs in the Tibetan Plateau. Integrating soil nutrient availability with plant functional traits together is recommended to better understand the mechanisms behind dryland dynamics under global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changing climatic conditions and unsustainable land use are major threats to savannas worldwide. Historically, many African savannas were used intensively for livestock grazing, which contributed to widespread patterns of bush encroachment across savanna systems. To reverse bush encroachment, it has been proposed to change the cattle‐dominated land use to one dominated by comparatively specialized browsers and usually native herbivores. However, the consequences for ecosystem properties and processes remain largely unclear. We used the ecohydrological, spatially explicit model EcoHyD to assess the impacts of two contrasting, herbivore land‐use strategies on a Namibian savanna: grazer‐ versus browser‐dominated herbivore communities. We varied the densities of grazers and browsers and determined the resulting composition and diversity of the plant community, total vegetation cover, soil moisture, and water use by plants. Our results showed that plant types that are less palatable to herbivores were best adapted to grazing or browsing animals in all simulated densities. Also, plant types that had a competitive advantage under limited water availability were among the dominant ones irrespective of land‐use scenario. Overall, the results were in line with our expectations: under high grazer densities, we found heavy bush encroachment and the loss of the perennial grass matrix. Importantly, regardless of the density of browsers, grass cover and plant functional diversity were significantly higher in browsing scenarios. Browsing herbivores increased grass cover, and the higher total cover in turn improved water uptake by plants overall. We concluded that, in contrast to grazing‐dominated land‐use strategies, land‐use strategies dominated by browsing herbivores, even at high herbivore densities, sustain diverse vegetation communities with high cover of perennial grasses, resulting in lower erosion risk and bolstering ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Priming, an inducible stress defence strategy that prepares an organism for an impending stress event, is common in microbes and has been studied mostly in isolated organisms or populations. How the benefits of priming change in the microbial community context and, vice versa, whether priming influences competition between organisms, remain largely unknown. In this study, we grew different isolates of soil fungi that experienced heat stress in isolation and pairwise competition experiments and assessed colony extension rate as a measure of fitness under priming and non‐priming conditions. Based on this data, we developed a cellular automaton model simulating the growth of the ascomycete Chaetomium angustispirale competing against other fungi and systematically varied fungal response traits to explain similarities and differences observed in the experimental data. We showed that competition changes the priming benefit compared with isolated growth and that it can even be reversed depending on the competitor's traits such as growth rate, primeability and stress susceptibility. With this study, we transfer insights on priming from studies in isolation to competition between species. This is an important step towards understanding the role of inducible defences in microbial community assembly and composition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological restoration increasingly aims at improving ecosystem multifunctionality and making landscapes resilient to future threats, especially in biodiversity hotspots such as Mediterranean‐type ecosystems. Plants and their traits play a major role in the functioning of an ecosystem. Therefore, successful restoration towards long‐term multifunctionality requires a fundamental mechanistic understanding of this link under changing climate. An integrated approach of empirical research and simulation modelling with a focus on plant traits can allow this understanding.Based on empirical data from a large‐scale restoration project in a Mediterranean‐type ecosystem in Western Australia, we developed and validated the spatially explicit simulation model Modelling Ecosystem Functions and Services based on Traits (ModEST), which calculates coupled dynamics of nutrients, water and individual plants characterised by functional traits. We then simulated all possible combinations of eight plant species with different levels of diversity to assess the role of plant diversity and traits on multifunctionality, the provision of six ecosystem functions that can be linked to ecosystem services, as well as trade‐offs and synergies among the functions under current and future climatic conditions.Our results show that multifunctionality cannot fully be achieved because of trade‐offs among functions that are attributable to sets of traits that affect functions differently. Our measure of multifunctionality was increased by higher levels of planted species richness under current, but not future climatic conditions. In contrast, single functions were differently impacted by increased plant diversity and thus the choice and weighting of these functions affected multifunctionality. In addition, we found that trade‐offs and synergies among functions shifted with climate change due to different direct and indirect (mediated via community trait changes) effects of climate change on functions.Synthesis and application. With our simulation model Modelling Ecosystem Functions and Services based on Traits (ModEST), we show that restoration towards multifunctionality might be challenging not only under current conditions but also in the long‐term. However, once ModEST is parameterised and validated for a specific restoration site, managers can assess which target goals can be achieved given the set of available plant species and site‐specific conditions. It can also highlight which species combinations can best achieve long‐term improved multifunctionality due to their trait diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: It is widely accepted that biodiversity is influenced by both niche-related and spatial processes from local to global scales. Their relative importance, however, is still disputed, and empirical tests are surprisingly scarce at the global scale. Here, we compare the importance of area (as a proxy for pure spatial processes) and environmental heterogeneity (as a proxy for niche-related processes) for predicting native mammal species richness world-wide and within biogeographical regions. Location: Global. Time period: We analyse a spatial snapshot of richness data collated by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. Major taxa studied: All terrestrial mammal species, including possibly extinct species and species with uncertain presence. Methods: We applied a spreading dye algorithm to analyse how native mammal species richness changes with area and environmental heterogeneity. As measures for environmental heterogeneity, we used elevation ranges and precipitation ranges, which are well-known correlates of species richness. Results: We found that environmental heterogeneity explained species richness relationships better than did area, suggesting that niche-related processes are more prevalent than pure area effects at broad scales. Main conclusions: Our results imply that niche-related processes are essential to understand broad-scale species--area relationships and that habitat diversity is more important than area alone for the protection of global biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Manipulative experiments typically show a decrease in dryland biocrust cover and altered species composition under climate change. Biocrust‐forming lichens, such as the globally distributed Diploschistes diacapsis, are particularly affected and show a decrease in cover with simulated climate change. However, the underlying mechanisms are not fully understood, and long‐term interacting effects of different drivers are largely unknown due to the short‐term nature of the experimental studies conducted so far.We addressed this gap and successfully parameterised a process‐based model for D. diacapsis to quantify how changing atmospheric CO2, temperature, rainfall amount and relative humidity affect its photosynthetic activity and cover. We also mimicked a long‐term manipulative climate change experiment to understand the mechanisms underlying observed patterns in the field.The model reproduced observed experimental findings: warming reduced lichen cover, whereas less rainfall had no effect on lichen performance. This warming effect was caused by the associated decrease in relative humidity and non‐rainfall water inputs, which are major water sources for biocrust‐forming lichens. Warming alone, however, increased cover because higher temperatures promoted photosynthesis during early morning hours with high lichen activity. When combined, climate variables showed non‐additive effects on lichen cover, and effects of increased CO2 levelled off with decreasing levels of relative humidity.Synthesis. Our results show that a decrease in relative humidity, rather than an increase in temperature, may be the key factor for the survival of the lichen D. diacapsis under climate change and that effects of increased CO2 levels might be offset by a reduction in non‐rainfall water inputs in the future. Because of a global trend towards warmer and drier air and the widespread global distribution of D. diacapsis, this will affect lichen‐dominated dryland biocrust communities and their role in regulating ecosystem functions worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grassland biodiversity is vulnerable to land use change. How to best manage semi-natural grasslands for maintaining biodiversity is still unclear in many cases because land-use processes may depend on environmental conditions and the indirect effects of land-use on biodiversity mediated by altered abiotic and biotic factors are rarely considered. Here we evaluate the relative importance of the direct and indirect effects of grazing intensity on plant communities along an elevational gradient on a large topographic scale in the Eastern Carpathians in Ukraine. We sampled for two years 31 semi-natural grasslands exposed to cattle grazing. Within each grassland site we measured plant community properties such as the number of species, functional groups, and the proportion of species undesirable for grazing. In addition, we recorded cattle density (as a proxy for grazing intensity), soil properties (bare soil exposure, soil organic carbon, and soil pH) and densities of soil decomposers (earthworms and soil microorganisms). We used structural equation modelling to explore the direct and indirect effects of grazing intensity on plant communities along the elevation gradient. We found that cattle density decreased plant species and functional diversity but increased the proportion of undesirable species. Some of these effects were directly linked to grazing intensity (i.e., species richness), while others (i.e., functional diversity and proportion of undesirable species) were mediated via bare soil exposure. Although grazing intensity decreased with elevation, the effects of grazing on the plant community did not change along the elevation gradient. Generally, elevation had a strong positive direct effect on plant species richness as well as a negative indirect effect, mediated via altered soil acidity and decreased decomposer density. Our results indicate that plant diversity and composition are controlled by the complex interplay among grazing intensity and changing environmental conditions along an elevation gradient. Furthermore, we found lower soil pH, organic carbon and decomposer density with elevation, indicating that the effects of grazing on soil and related ecosystem functions and services in semi-natural grasslands may be more pronounced with elevation. This demonstrates that we need to account for environmental gradients when attempting to generalize effects of land-use intensity on biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Biocrusts, communities dominated by mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and other microorganisms, largely affect the carbon cycle of drylands. As poikilohydric organisms, their activity time is often limited to short hydration events. The photosynthetic and respiratory response of biocrusts to hydration events is not only determined by the overall amount of available water, but also by the frequency and size of individual rainfall pulses. Methods: We experimentally assessed the carbon exchange of a biocrust community dominated by the lichen Diploschistes diacapsis in central Spain. We compared the effect of two simulated precipitation patterns providing the same overall amount of water, but with different pulse sizes and frequency (high frequency: five mm/day vs. low frequency: 15 mm/3 days), on net/gross photosynthesis and dark respiration. Results: Radiation and soil temperature, together with the watering treatment, affected the rates of net and gross photosynthesis, as well as dark respiration. On average, the low frequency treatment showed a 46% ± 3% (mean ± 1 SE) lower rate of net photosynthesis, a 13% ± 7% lower rate of dark respiration, and a 24% ± 8% lower rate of gross photosynthesis. However, on the days when samples of both treatments were watered, no differences between their carbon fluxes were observed. The carbon flux response of D. diacapsis was modulated by the environmental conditions and was particularly dependent on the antecedent soil moisture. Discussion: In line with other studies, we found a synergetic effect of individual pulse size, frequency, environmental conditions, and antecedent moisture on the carbon exchange fluxes of biocrusts. However, most studies on this subject were conducted in summer and they obtained results different from ours, so we conclude that there is a need for long-term experiments of manipulated precipitation impacts on the carbon exchange of biocrusts. This will enable a more complete assessment of the impacts of climate change-induced alterations in precipitation patterns on biocrust communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A global ecological restoration agenda has led to ambitious programs in environmental policy to mitigate declines in biodiversity and ecosystem services. Current restoration programs can incompletely return desired ecosystem service levels, while resilience of restored ecosystems to future threats is unknown. It is therefore essential to advance understanding and better utilize knowledge from ecological literature in restoration approaches. We identified an incomplete linkage between global change ecology, ecosystem function research, and restoration ecology. This gap impedes a full understanding of the interactive effects of changing environmental factors on the long‐term provision of ecosystem functions and a quantification of trade‐offs and synergies among multiple services. Approaches that account for the effects of multiple changing factors on the composition of plant traits and their direct and indirect impact on the provision of ecosystem functions and services can close this gap. However, studies on this multilayered relationship are currently missing. We therefore propose an integrated restoration agenda complementing trait‐based empirical studies with simulation modeling. We introduce an ongoing case study to demonstrate how this framework could allow systematic assessment of the impacts of interacting environmental factors on long‐term service provisioning. Our proposed agenda will benefit restoration programs by suggesting plant species compositions with specific traits that maximize the supply of multiple ecosystem services in the long term. Once the suggested compositions have been implemented in actual restoration projects, these assemblages should be monitored to assess whether they are resilient as well as to improve model parameterization. Additionally, the integration of empirical and simulation modeling research can improve global outcomes by raising the awareness of which restoration goals can be achieved, due to the quantification of trade‐offs and synergies among ecosystem services under a wide range of environmental conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Savannas are mixed tree-grass ecosystems whose dynamics are predominantly regulated by resource competition and the temporal variability in climatic and environmental factors such as rainfall and fire. Hence, increasing inter-annual rainfall variability due to climate change could have a significant impact on savannas. To investigate this, we used an ecohydrological model of stochastic differential equations and simulated African savanna dynamics along a gradient of mean annual rainfall (520–780 mm/year) for a range of inter-annual rainfall variabilities. Our simulations produced alternative states of grassland and savanna across the mean rainfall gradient. Increasing inter-annual variability had a negative effect on the savanna state under dry conditions (520 mm/year), and a positive effect under moister conditions (580–780 mm/year). The former resulted from the net negative effect of dry and wet extremes on trees. In semi-arid conditions (520 mm/year), dry extremes caused a loss of tree cover, which could not be recovered during wet extremes because of strong resource competition and the increased frequency of fires. At high mean rainfall (780 mm/year), increased variability enhanced savanna resilience. Here, resources were no longer limiting and the slow tree dynamics buffered against variability by maintaining a stable population during ‘dry’ extremes, providing the basis for growth during wet extremes. Simultaneously, high rainfall years had a weak marginal benefit on grass cover due to density-regulation and grazing. Our results suggest that the effects of the slow tree and fast grass dynamics on tree-grass interactions will become a major determinant of the savanna vegetation composition with increasing rainfall variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall, with a significant impact on vegetation and agriculture and dire consequences for food and social security. In this study, we identify and quantify the ENSO contribution to the eastern African rainfall variability to forecast future eastern African vegetation response to rainfall variability related to a predicted intensified ENSO. To differentiate the vegetation variability due to ENSO, we removed the ENSO signal from the climate data using empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis. Then, we simulated the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes under the historical climate without components related to ENSO teleconnections. We found ENSO-driven patterns in vegetation response and confirmed that EOT analysis can successfully produce coupled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature-eastern African rainfall teleconnection from observed datasets. We further simulated eastern African vegetation response under future climate change as it is projected by climate models and under future climate change combined with a predicted increased ENSO intensity. Our EOT analysis highlights that climate simulations are still not good at capturing rainfall variability due to ENSO, and as we show here the future vegetation would be different from what is simulated under these climate model outputs lacking accurate ENSO contribution.We simulated considerable differences in eastern African vegetation growth under the influence of an intensified ENSO regime which will bring further environmental stress to a region with a reduced capacity to adapt effects of global climate change and food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drylands occur worldwide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change because dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability and change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding. We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation. Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change-induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, that is, leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water-limited ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is the main driver for the interannual variability in East African rainfall with significant impact on vegetation and agriculture, and dire consequences for food and social security. In this study, we identify and quantify the ENSO contribution to the East African rainfall variability to forecast future East African vegetation response to rainfall variability related to a predicted intensified ENSO. To differentiate the vegetation variability due to ENSO, we removed the ENSO signal from the climate data using Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnections (EOT) analysis. Then, we simulated the vegetation under the historical climate without components related to ENSO teleconnections. We found ENSO driven patterns in vegetation response and confirmed that EOT analysis can successfully produce coupled tropical Pacific Sea Surface temperature-East African rainfall teleconnection from observed datasets. We further simulated East African vegetation response under future climate change as it is projected by climate models and under future climate change combined with a predicted increased ENSO intensity. Our EOT analysis highlight that climate simulations are still not good at capturing rainfall variability due to ENSO, and as we show here the future vegetation would be different from what is simulated under these climate model outputs lacking accurate ENSO contribution. We simulated considerable differences in East African vegetation growth under the influence of an intensified ENSO regime which will bring further environmental stress to a region with a reduced capacity to adapt effects of global climate change and food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation productivity is an essential variable in ecosystem functioning. Vegetation dynamics of dryland ecosystems are most strongly determined by water availability and consequently by rainfall and there is a need to better understand how water limited ecosystems respond to altered rainfall amounts and variability. This response is partly determined by the vegetation functional response to rainfall (β) approximated by the unit change in annual vegetation productivity per unit change in annual rainfall. Here, we show how this functional response from 1983 to 2011 is affected by below and above average rainfall in two arid to semi-arid subtropical regions in West Africa (WA) and South West Africa (SWA) differing in interannual variability of annual rainfall (higher in SWA, lower in WA). We used a novel approach, shifting linear regression models (SLRs), to estimate gridded time series of β. The SLRs ingest annual satellite based rainfall as the explanatory variable and annual satellite-derived vegetation productivity proxies (NDVI) as the response variable. Gridded β values form unimodal curves along gradients of mean annual precipitation in both regions. β is higher in SWA during periods of below average rainfall (compared to above average) for mean annual precipitation <600 mm. In WA, β is hardly affected by above or below average rainfall conditions. Results suggest that this higher β variability in SWA is related to the higher rainfall variability in this region. Vegetation type-specific β follows observed responses for each region along rainfall gradients leading to region-specific responses for each vegetation type. We conclude that higher interannual rainfall variability might favour a more dynamic vegetation response to rainfall. This in turn may enhance the capability of vegetation productivity of arid and semi-arid regions to better cope with periods of below average rainfall conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fluxes of organic and inorganic carbon within the Amazon basin are considerably controlled by annual flooding, which triggers the export of terrigenous organic material to the river and ultimately to the Atlantic Ocean. The amount of carbon imported to the river and the further conversion, transport and export of it depend on temperature, atmospheric CO2, terrestrial productivity and carbon storage, as well as discharge. Both terrestrial productivity and discharge are influenced by climate and land use change. The coupled LPJmL and RivCM model system (Langerwisch et al., 2016) has been applied to assess the combined impacts of climate and land use change on the Amazon riverine carbon dynamics. Vegetation dynamics (in LPJmL) as well as export and conversion of terrigenous carbon to and within the river (RivCM) are included. The model system has been applied for the years 1901 to 2099 under two deforestation scenarios and with climate forcing of three SRES emission scenarios, each for five climate models. We find that high deforestation (business-as-usual scenario) will strongly decrease (locally by up to 90 %) riverine particulate and dissolved organic carbon amount until the end of the current century. At the same time, increase in discharge leaves net carbon transport during the first decades of the century roughly unchanged only if a sufficient area is still forested. After 2050 the amount of transported carbon will decrease drastically. In contrast to that, increased temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration determine the amount of riverine inorganic carbon stored in the Amazon basin. Higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase riverine inorganic carbon amount by up to 20% (SRES A2). The changes in riverine carbon fluxes have direct effects on carbon export, either to the atmosphere via outgassing or to the Atlantic Ocean via discharge. The outgassed carbon will increase slightly in the Amazon basin, but can be regionally reduced by up to 60% due to deforestation. The discharge of organic carbon to the ocean will be reduced by about 40% under the most severe deforestation and climate change scenario. These changes would have local and regional consequences on the carbon balance and habitat characteristics in the Amazon basin itself as well as in the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water limited ecosystems such as savannas are characterized by strong interactions between water fluxes and vegetation. However, the fraction of mean annual rainfall that is transformed into plant available water, is not only dependent on the prevailing vegetation cover, but also on abiotic factors such as soil texture and topography as well as intra-annual precipitation patterns. Most models projecting savanna vegetation cover dynamics have not accounted for these factors until now. Here, it is highlighted how and why spatial heterogeneity in water availability and vegetation cover is closely related to abiotic conditions. The role of soil texture, slope and precipitation patterns on water availability and emergent vegetation patterns are systematically tested by using the process-based, spatially explicit model EcoHyD. The analysis shows that the same overall precipitation will result in qualitatively different vegetation cover, depending on environmental conditions. This highlights that models of savanna systems should indeed resolve water dynamics and the feedbacks between water and vegetation with care. In addition the study discusses that future savanna models should go one step further and include phenotypic plasticity and demographic processes to better resolve individual plant responses towards water stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our current understanding regarding the functioning of the savanna ecosystem describes savannas as either competition- or disturbance-dependent. Within this generalized view, the role and importance of facilitation have been mostly neglected. This study presents a mathematical model of savannas with coupled soil moisture–vegetation dynamics, which includes interspecific competition and environmental disturbance. We find that there exist environmental and climatic conditions where grass facilitation toward trees plays an important role in supporting tree cover and by extension preserving the savanna biome. We, therefore, argue that our theoretical results in combination with the first empirical studies on the subject should stimulate further research into the role of facilitation in the savanna ecosystem, particularly when analyzing the impact of past and projected climatic changes on it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crop models are crucial in assessing the reliability and sustainability of soil water conservation practices. The AquaCrop model was tested and validated for maize productivity under the selected climate smart agriculture (CSA) practices in the rainfed production systems. The model was validated using final biomass (B) and grain yield (GY) data from field experiments involving seven CSA practices (halfmoon pits, 2 cm thick mulch, 4 cm thick mulch, 6 cm thick mulch, 20 cm deep permanent planting basins (PPB), and 30 cm deep) and the control (conventional practice) where no CSA was applied. Statistics for coefficient of determination (R2), Percent bias (Pbias), and Nash–Sutcliffe (E) for B and GY indicate that the AquaCrop model was robust to predict crop yield and biomass as illustrated by the value of R2 > 0.80, Pbias −1.52–1.25% and E > 0.68 for all the CSA practices studied. The relative changes between the actual and simulated water use efficiency (WUE) of grain yield was observed in most of the CSA practices. However, measured WUE was seemingly better in the 2 cm thick mulch, indicating a potential for water saving and yield improvement. Therefore, the AquaCrop model is recommended as a reliable tool for assessing the effectiveness of the selected CSA practices for sustainable and improved maize production; although, the limitations in severely low soil moisture conditions and water stressed environments should be further investigated considering variations in agroecological zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth's life-support systems are in flux, yet no centralized system to monitor and report these changes exists. Recognizing this, 77 nations agreed to establish the Group on Earth Observations (GEO). The GEO Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON) integrates existing data streams into one platform in order to provide a more complete picture of Earth's biological and social systems. We present a conceptual framework envisioned by the GEO BON Ecosystem Services Working Group, designed to integrate national statistics, numerical models, remote sensing, and in situ measurements to regularly track changes in ecosystem services across the globe. This information will serve diverse applications, including stimulating new research and providing the basis for assessments. Although many ecosystem services are not currently measured, others are ripe for reporting. We propose a framework that will continue to grow and inspire more complete observation and assessments of our planet's life-support systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In sub-humid regions, declining maize (Zea mays L.) yield is majorly attributed to unreliable rainfall and high evapotranspiration demand during critical growth stages. However, there are limited farm technologies for conserving soil water and increasing water use efficiency (WUE) in rainfed production systems amidst a changing climate. This study aimed at assessing the performance of different climate smart agriculture (CSA) practices, such as mulching and permanent planting basins (PPB), on maize growth, yield, water use efficiency and soil moisture storage. Field experiments involving mulches of 2 cm (M_2 cm), 4 cm (M_4 cm) and 6 cm (M_6 cm) thickness, permanent planting basins of 20 cm (PPB_20 cm) and 30 cm (PPB_30 cm) depths and the control/or conventional treatments were conducted for three maize growing seasons in the sub-humid climate of Western Uganda. Results indicate that maize biomass significantly increased under the tested CSA practices in the study area. Use of permanent planting basins relatively increased maize grain yield (11–66%) and water use efficiency (33–94%) compared to the conventional practice. Additionally, plots treated with mulch achieved an increase in grain yield (18–65%) and WUE (28–85%) relative to the control. Soil amendment with M_4 cm and M_6 cm significantly increased soil moisture storage compared to permanent planting basins and the conventional practice. Overall, the results highlight the positive impact of CSA practices on improving maize yield and water use efficiency in rainfed agriculture production systems which dominate the sub-humid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]