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Extreme events, such as those caused by climate change, economic or geopolitical shocks, and pest or disease epidemics, threaten global food security. The complexity of causation, as well as the myriad ways that an event, or a sequence of events, creates cascading and systemic impacts, poses significant challenges to food systems research and policy alike. To identify priority food security risks and research opportunities, we asked experts from a range of fields and geographies to describe key threats to global food security over the next two decades and to suggest key research questions and gaps on this topic. Here, we present a prioritization of threats to global food security from extreme events, as well as emerging research questions that highlight the conceptual and practical challenges that exist in designing, adopting, and governing resilient food systems. We hope that these findings help in directing research funding and resources toward food system transformations needed to help society tackle major food system risks and food insecurity under extreme events.

Oceanic ecosystem services support a range of human benefits, and Canada has extensive research networks producing growing data sets. We present a first effort to compile, link, and harmonize available information to provide new perspectives on the status of Canadian ocean ecosystems and corresponding research. The metadata database currently includes 1094 individual assessments and data sets from government (n = 716), nongovernment (n = 320), and academic sources (n = 58), comprising research on marine species, natural drivers and resources, human activities, ecosystem services, and governance, with data sets spanning 1979-2012 on average. Overall, research shows a strong prevalence towards single-species fishery studies, with an underrepresentation of economic and social aspects, and of the Arctic region in general. Nevertheless, the number of studies that are multispecies or ecosystem-based have increased since the 1960s. We present and discuss two illustrative case studies--marine protected area establishment in Canada and herring resource use by the Heiltsuk First Nation--highlighting the potential use of multidisciplinary data sets drawn from metadata records. Identifying knowledge gaps is key to achieving the comprehensive, accessible and interdisciplinary data sets and subsequent analyses necessary for new sustainability policies that meet both ecological and socioeconomic needs. Les services des ecosystemes oceaniques supportent un eventail d'avantages pour les humains, et le Canada dispose de vastes reseaux de recherche qui produisent des ensembles de donnees croissants. Nous presentons les premiers efforts visant a compiler, relier et harmoniser l'information disponible afin d'offrir de nouvelles perspectives sur l'etat des ecosystemes oceaniques canadiens et la recherche s'y rapportant. La base de metadonnees comprend actuellement 1094 evaluations et ensembles de donnees distincts provenant de sources gouvernementales (n = 716), non gouvernementales (n = 320) et universitaires (n = 58), qui comprennent des travaux sur des especes marines, des facteurs et ressources naturels, des activites humaines, les services d'ecosystemes et la gouvernance, les ensembles de donnees couvrant, en moyenne, la periode de 1979 a 2012. Dans l'ensemble, la recherche montre une forte prevalence d'etudes sur les peches visant une seule espece et une sous-representation des aspects economiques et sociaux et de la region arctique en general. Cela dit, le nombre d'etudes portant sur des especes multiples ou sur des ecosystemes a augmente depuis les annees 1960. Nous presentons deux etudes de cas a des fins d'illustration et de discussion, sur l'etablissement d'aires marines protegees au Canada et sur les ressources de harengs utilisees par la Premiere Nation Heiltsuk, qui font ressortir l'utilite potentielle d'ensembles de donnees multidisciplinaires extraits de registres de metadonnees. La determination des lacunes en matiere de connaissances est d'importance cle pour la production d'ensembles de donnees exhaustifs, accessibles et interdisciplinaires et pour les analyses subsequentes necessaires a l'elaboration de nouvelles politiques de gestion durable pour repondre a des besoins tant ecologiques que socioeconomiques. [Traduit par la Redaction], Introduction Availability, integration, and access to information on ocean resources and research have been identified as key challenges for Canadian ocean management (Expert Panel on Canadian Ocean Science 2013). Such [...]

The immense challenges associated with realizing ocean and coastal sustainability require highly skilled interdisciplinary marine scientists. However, the barriers experienced by early career researchers (ECRs) seeking to address these challenges, and the support required to overcome those barriers, are not well understood. This study examines the perspectives of ECRs on opportunities to build interdisciplinary research capacity in marine science. We engaged 23 current and former graduate students and postdoctoral fellows in a policy Delphi method with three rounds of surveying that included semi-structured questionnaires and q-methodology. We identified the following five barriers that limit ECRs' capacity for interdisciplinary research: (i) demanding workloads; (ii) stress linked to funding, publishing, and employment uncertainty; (iii) limited support for balancing personal and professional commitments; (iv) ineffective supervisory support; and (v) the steep learning curve associated with interdisciplinary research. Our analysis highlights three main types of responses to these barriers adopted by ECRs, including "taking on too much", "coping effectively", and "maintaining material wellbeing at any cost". To overcome these barriers, we propose the following three institutional actions to build early career interdisciplinary researcher capacity: formalize mentorship, create interdisciplinary research groups, and mainstream mental health support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • We quantify the economic outcome of responses to future change in Cambodia. • We compare current to future net income under 4 scenarios of change. • Those engaged in fishing only had the highest current net income. • On average, respondents experience a loss in net income under all scenarios. • Single livelihood respondents have the largest losses and least capacity to adapt. Abstract This paper investigates the economic impact of future global change on fishing dependent inhabitants of the Tonle Sap floodplain in Cambodia. We compare the net income from individuals' current livelihoods to that derived from reallocating their livelihood activities under 4 different scenarios depicting future change. Respondents generally chose to retain their current livelihood strategy under all future scenarios. Less than 10% of those who did change livelihood allocation actually experienced a gain in economic benefits. Those engaged in single livelihoods experienced an average income loss of 18% across all scenarios, compared to 9% for the multi-livelihood group. Respondents' choices generated the best economic outcome under a status quo scenario, thus suggesting a low capacity to adapt when faced with unfamiliar future scenarios. Our study contributes to identifying and understanding the economic impact of future global changes on fisheries dependent individuals in the Tonle Sap floodplain ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is projected to redistribute fisheries resources, resulting in tropical regions suffering decreases in seafood production. While sustainably managing marine ecosystems contributes to building climate resilience, these solutions require transformation of ocean governance. Recent studies and international initiatives suggest that conserving high seas biodiversity and fish stocks will have ecological and economic benefits; however, implications for seafood security under climate change have not been examined. Here, we apply global-scale mechanistic species distribution models to 30 major straddling fish stocks to show that transforming high seas fisheries governance could increase resilience to climate change impacts. By closing the high seas to fishing or cooperatively managing its fisheries, we project that catches in exclusive economic zones (EEZs) would likely increase by around 10% by 2050 relative to 2000 under climate change (representative concentration pathway 4.5 and 8.5), compensating for the expected losses (around −6%) from 'business-as-usual'. Specifically, high seas closure increases the resilience of fish stocks, as indicated by a mean species abundance index, by 30% in EEZs. We suggest that improving high seas fisheries governance would increase the resilience of coastal countries to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate how high seas closure will affect the availability of commonly consumed food fish in 46 fish reliant, and/or low income countries. Domestic consumption of straddling fish species (fish that would be affected by high seas closure) occurred in 54% of the assessed countries. The majority (70%) of countries were projected to experience net catch gains following high seas closure. However, countries with projected catch gains and that also consumed the straddling fish species domestically made up only 37% of the assessed countries. In contrast, much fewer countries (25%) were projected to incur net losses from high seas closure, and of these, straddling species were used domestically in less than half (45%) of the countries. Our findings suggest that, given the current consumption patterns of straddling species, high seas closure may only directly benefit the supply of domestically consumed food fish in a small number of fish reliant and/or low income countries. In particular, it may not have a substantial impact on improving domestic fish supply in countries with the greatest need for improved access to affordable fish, as only one third of this group used straddling fish species domestically. Also, food security in countries with projected net catch gains but where straddling fish species are not consumed domestically may still benefit indirectly via economic activities arising from the increased availability of non-domestically consumed straddling fish species following high seas closure. Consequently, this study suggests that high seas closure can potentially improve marine resource sustainability as well as contribute to human well-being in some of the poorest and most fish dependent countries worldwide. However, caution is required because high seas closure may also negatively affect fish availability in countries that are already impoverished and fish insecure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reefs and People at Risk: Increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere put shallow, warm-water coral reef ecosystems, and the people who depend upon them at risk from two key global environmental stresses: 1) elevated sea surface temperature (that can cause coral bleaching and related mortality), and 2) ocean acidification. These global stressors: cannot be avoided by local management, compound local stressors, and hasten the loss of ecosystem services. Impacts to people will be most grave where a) human dependence on coral reef ecosystems is high, b) sea surface temperature reaches critical levels soonest, and c) ocean acidification levels are most severe. Where these elements align, swift action will be needed to protect people’s lives and livelihoods, but such action must be informed by data and science. An Indicator Approach: Designing policies to offset potential harm to coral reef ecosystems and people requires a better understanding of where CO2-related global environmental stresses could cause the most severe impacts. Mapping indicators has been proposed as a way of combining natural and social science data to identify policy actions even when the needed science is relatively nascent. To identify where people are at risk and where more science is needed, we map indicators of biological, physical and social science factors to understand how human dependence on coral reef ecosystems will be affected by globally-driven threats to corals expected in a high-CO2 world. Western Mexico, Micronesia, Indonesia and parts of Australia have high human dependence and will likely face severe combined threats. As a region, Southeast Asia is particularly at risk. Many of the countries most dependent upon coral reef ecosystems are places for which we have the least robust data on ocean acidification. These areas require new data and interdisciplinary scientific research to help coral reef-dependent human communities better prepare for a high CO2 world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] A fuzzy logic marine protected area site selection tool is proposed. [•] The tool combines human and biodiversity priorities to assess site suitability. [•] Sites chosen for protection by the tool overlap with fisher communities’ choice. [•] The tool can be used in data poor conditions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Overfishing threatens coral reefs worldwide, yet there is no reliable estimate on the number of reef fishers globally. We address this data gap by quantifying the number of reef fishers on a global scale, using two approaches - the first estimates reef fishers as a proportion of the total number of marine fishers in a country, based on the ratio of reef-related to total marine fish landed values. The second estimates reef fishers as a function of coral reef area, rural coastal population, and fishing pressure. In total, we find that there are 6 million reef fishers in 99 reef countries and territories worldwide, of which at least 25% are reef gleaners. Our estimates are an improvement over most existing fisher population statistics, which tend to omit accounting for gleaners and reef fishers. Our results suggest that slightly over a quarter of the world’s small-scale fishers fish on coral reefs, and half of all coral reef fishers are in Southeast Asia. Coral reefs evidently support the socio-economic well-being of numerous coastal communities. By quantifying the number of people who are employed as reef fishers, we provide decision-makers with an important input into planning for sustainable coral reef fisheries at the appropriate scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Our study objective is to quantify the present and historical contribution of small-scale fisheries to national economies. We focus on the small-scale fishing sector in Sabah, Malaysia, and use a previously reconstructed time series of Sabah''s small-scale catches as the basis for estimating the economic value of these fisheries. Our findings suggest that since the early 1990s, small-scale fish catches in Sabah may have been undervalued by up to 225%. Presently, small-scale fisheries may be supporting up to an additional 3.5% of Sabah''s population. Further, accounting for the economic impact of unaccounted small-scale fisheries value could have potentially tripled the reported contribution that commercial and small-scale fisheries combined made to GDP in 2009. Overall, our results show that the socio-economic contribution of small-scale fisheries to Sabah society have been substantially undervalued or even unaccounted for historically and in present fisheries statistics. This undervaluation also implies that fishing pressure on Sabah''s inshore marine resources is probably a lot higher than presently perceived, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of these fisheries resources, and the capacity for Sabah''s inshore fisheries to support coastal livelihoods into the future. Our study strongly suggests the need for more encompassing fisheries monitoring and data collection methods which target the large population of small-scale fishers whose catch is largely unreported. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Understanding the socio-economic factors that are associated with fishers' willingness to delay gratification may be useful for designing appropriate fisheries management and conservation policies. We aim to identify the predictors of low discounting behaviour among fishers, which is analogous to having a longer-term outlook. We base our empirical study on two small-scale tropical reef fisheries in Sabah, Malaysia, and Fiji. We use an experimental approach to identify fishers with low discount rates, and then use a logistic regression model to identify predictors of low discount rates. We find that 42% of the respondents have low discount rates, and that site and village level variables are significant predictors of low discount rates. Within Sabah and Fiji, boat ownership and relative catch differentiate low discounting from non-low discounting fishers, but these variables have contradictory effects in Sabah and Fiji. Overall, our results imply that a substantial proportion of reef fishers may be willing to engage in conservation initiatives; however, local socio-cultural, economic, and ecological conditions have to be considered first during the process of designing management interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The recent creation of the Tun Mustapha Park (TMP) in the northern waters of Sabah, Malaysia has brought up the need for understanding the coral reef fisheries system in Pulau Banggi, for which there has been no previous documentation. This study draws upon field data collected in June and August 2004 to accomplish two things, namely, to build a profile of the ecological and socio-economic aspects of Pulau Banggi''s reef fisheries, and undertake a preliminary assessment of the status of these fisheries. This research is important because it provides information that will help managers develop policies for the long-term ecological and socio-economic sustainability of Pulau Banggi''s reef fisheries. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Rebuilding fish populations worldwide is urgently needed, but socio-economic concerns often slow down or even prevent the process of rebuilding fish stocks. To address this concern we conduct an economic analysis of rebuilding six depleted Canadian fish stocks under different biological and management scenarios. Rebuilding scenario projections are based on underlying fish stock assessments and fish species' life history traits, and thus are also influenced by uncertainties in these parameters. We find that rebuilding generates economic gains for five of the six fish stocks in the long term, with estimated economic gains under the most and least optimistic scenarios reaching up to 11 times and 5 times above the status quo, respectively. In most cases, fishery closure generates higher potential economic gains compared to a low-fishing strategy, regardless of the rate of fish stock recovery. Intergenerational discounting increases estimated economic benefits, thereby emphasizing the importance of taking a long-term perspective to fisheries rebuilding. Our results suggest that bearing the short-term economic costs of rebuilding can lead to future economic benefits, which in the long term are an improvement over maintaining the status quo. • Fisheries rebuilding results in long term economic gains for 5 out of 6 stocks. • Most optimistic scenario estimated economic gain of 11 times above the status quo. • Rebuilding led to NPV losses for yelloweye rockfish, a long lived, choke species. • Fishery closure scenarios resulted in highest projected economic gains. • Bearing short-term economic costs of rebuilding can lead to future benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reefs and People at Risk: Increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere put shallow, warm-water coral reef ecosystems, and the people who depend upon them at risk from two key global environmental stresses: 1) elevated sea surface temperature (that can cause coral bleaching and related mortality), and 2) ocean acidification. These global stressors: cannot be avoided by local management, compound local stressors, and hasten the loss of ecosystem services. Impacts to people will be most grave where a) human dependence on coral reef ecosystems is high, b) sea surface temperature reaches critical levels soonest, and c) ocean acidification levels are most severe. Where these elements align, swift action will be needed to protect people's lives and livelihoods, but such action must be informed by data and science., An Indicator Approach: Designing policies to offset potential harm to coral reef ecosystems and people requires a better understanding of where CO2-related global environmental stresses could cause the most severe impacts. Mapping indicators has been proposed as a way of combining natural and social science data to identify policy actions even when the needed science is relatively nascent. To identify where people are at risk and where more science is needed, we map indicators of biological, physical and social science factors to understand how human dependence on coral reef ecosystems will be affected by globally-driven threats to corals expected in a high-CO2 world. Western Mexico, Micronesia, Indonesia and parts of Australia have high human dependence and will likely face severe combined threats. As a region, Southeast Asia is particularly at risk. Many of the countries most dependent upon coral reef ecosystems are places for which we have the least robust data on ocean acidification. These areas require new data and interdisciplinary scientific research to help coral reef-dependent human communities better prepare for a high CO2 world., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Fishing takes place in the high seas and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of maritime countries. Closing the former to fishing has recently been proposed in the literature and is currently an issue of debate in various international fora. We determine the degree of overlap between fish caught in these two areas of the ocean, examine how global catch might change if catches of straddling species or taxon groups increase within EEZs as a result of protection of adjacent high seas; and identify countries that are likely to gain or lose in total catch quantity and value following high-seas closure. We find that <0.01% of the quantity and value of commercial fish taxa are obtained from catch taken exclusively in the high seas, and if the catch of straddling taxa increases by 18% on average following closure because of spillover, there would be no loss in global catch. The Gini coefficient, which measures income inequality, would decrease from 0.66 to 0.33. Thus, closing the high seas could be catch-neutral while inequality in the distribution of fisheries benefits among the world's maritime countries could be reduced by 50%.