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Background and Aims: This study aims to assess individuals' willingness to pay (WTP) for a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) vaccine in Iran, focusing on key determinants influencing vaccine acceptance. Utilizing the contingent valuation method (CVM), we aim to provide insights into the economic and socio‐cultural factors shaping WTP in Iran. Methods: We conducted face‐to‐face surveys with 468 participants in Tehran province using purposive sampling. We analyzed demographic characteristics, perspectives on HIV/AIDS, and financial considerations alongside participants' WTP. Statistical analyses, including maximum likelihood estimation, identified factors influencing WTP. Mean WTP values were calculated to quantify the economic valuation of an HIV vaccine. Results: Higher education and monthly income significantly correlated with increased WTP, while gender, age, marital status, and health insurance showed no substantial impact. The mean WTP was 12,590.83 to 12,599.63 thousand Rials in different models, both showing statistically significant WTP values. Conclusion: Higher education and income levels are key determinants of WTP for an HIV vaccine in Iran. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers to enhance vaccine accessibility and acceptance in Iran. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Following the COVID-19 outbreak, there are concerns whether economies are becoming farther from equality and competency. While this matters to every economy, it is more crucial for developing ones who already suffer from income inequalities and lack of competency. The purpose of this paper is to address this issue. Design/methodology/approach: This study uses an administrative data from the Iran's Social Security Organization (ISSO) that provides insurance to workers entitled to the Labor Law of Iran. The data contain more than 7,000,000 workers. The authors assess heterogeneous impact of the first wave of the pandemic by firms' size and average payment. Findings: The authors' estimation results indicate that, following the initiation of the pandemic, the workers whose corresponding firms are smaller, overall, are more prone to the pandemic and are more likely to submit a request for unemployment benefits. However, the relation is neither homogeneous across sectors nor linear among micro-sized firms. Few sectors indicate a positive relationship between size and likelihood of request submission, including cultural activity, shoemaking and clothing sectors. Besides the size, the authors investigate whether pay grades could explain the probability of becoming unemployed after the pandemic. Results show that workers whose corresponding firms pay less are more likely to submit a request. This is robust within different sectors. Research limitations/implications: The ISSO dataset is not a panel, so the authors cannot employ methods of causal inferences. The authors' results should be seen as correlation; however, due to exogeneity and sharpness of the pandemic the result infers to some degree of causality. The data does not cover the informal sector, so the estimates are at lower boundary. Originality/value: Administrative data on unemployment benefits during COVID-19 show that the pandemic interferes with competition by forcing low-paid workers and small firms to exit the market. This is an alarm for the competition in every economy, specially developing ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most nonlinear vector autoregressive methods in the econometric literature are based on specific functional forms, such as the smooth transition autoregressive model. This study proposes a general form of the nonlinear vector autoregressive model based on global approximators, such as neural networks, Volterra, and Weiner series. The simulation results of 20 linear and nonlinear multivariate time series processes indicate that nonlinear vector autoregressive methods, especially multi‐output neural networks, are more accurate based on the root mean square error and model confidence set criteria. Applying the global approximator approach to a small‐scale macroeconometric model reveals that the new approach can improve forecast accuracy compared to linear and other nonlinear vector error correction models. In addition, forecasting the relevant variables in a typical exchange rate and monetary policy models based on nonlinear specifications gives more successful results than in the linear case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims: This study aimed to estimate the preferences for COVID‐19 vaccines among a sample of Iranian adults and to understand the sources of preference heterogeneity. Methods: A web‐based survey was conducted from April to July 2021; out of 1747 participants, 678 completed the survey. Seven key attributes were selected, namely effectiveness, risk of severe side effects, risk of mild side effects, number of doses, duration of protection, location of manufacture, and price. Additionally, conditional logit and mixed logit models were used to analyze the data. Results: The results of this study indicate that vaccine effectiveness, protective duration, the risk of side effects, and price are the most important factors that influence vaccine preferences. Furthermore, we identified heterogeneity in preferences, indicating that not all individuals respond in the same way to vaccine attributes. Conclusion: The majority of Iranians prefer to get the Covid‐19 vaccine. Policymakers should consider these findings when implementing successful programs. This study contributes to the literature by estimating Iranian respondents' preferences for the Covid‐19 vaccine and identifying the heterogeneity in their preferences for vaccine attributes. The findings may also inform future research and policies related to Covid‐19 vaccination programs in Iran. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study is to investigate the excessive changes in the exchange rate in Iran during 2018 due to extreme speculation in the monetary and currency markets caused by numerous economic and political factors such as accumulated excessive liquidity, severe sanctions and foreign pressures. Based on purchasing power parity (PPP) theory, the foreign exchange rate has to be adjusted with the inflation rate. However, this study showed that in the critical situations the PPP theory, which adopts a long‐term and backward‐looking approach, no longer works, and instead the market tends to adopt a short‐term and prospective approach to exchange rates. In this study, the economic data of Iran and the United States were gathered from late 1978 to 21 September 2018, and by adding three other economic factors, including the difference of average annual growth rate of GDP per capita of 2% between the two countries, indicator of risk in low volatility period (1.16%) and high volatility one (1.49%), a new and risk‐based approach is presented based on the low and high volatility of the exchange rates to address the excessive changes not explained by conventional theories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compulsory military service, due to its timing in the lives of men (at a young age, which is the key period for increasing human capital) and its length (in many cases, about a year and a half to two years), implies a significant cost (explicit or implicit) for them. Individual costs incurred as a result of compulsory military service is an important aspect to consider when measuring the economic and social costs of enforcing conscription. Compulsory military service has been a part of Iranian government policy since 1925. Accordingly, an attempt to estimate the cost for men in Iran is the main subject of this paper. We will estimate the willingness of men to pay for exemption from compulsory military service based on the dichotomous choice contingent valuation model (One-and-One-Half Bounded approach). The mean of willingness to pay is estimated at 1.61 billion Rials (38,000 USD) while the median of willingness to pay is 1.64 billion Rials. A calculation of the median of willingness to pay for sub-groups of respondents shows that individuals with an income of more than 70 million Rials (1670 USD) per month have the highest median of willingness to pay, followed by those with a Ph.D. degree, and finally, undergraduates are individuals with the lowest median of willingness to pay. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oil revenues and the effect exerted on the economic climate have long captured the researchers' attention. Drawing on the importance of oil in oil producing countries, this study taps into the impact of a rise in oil prices on different economic sectors, including manufacturing, agriculture and service. To this end, the study has tested the following hypotheses within the framework of Dutch disease theory: oil price rise diminishes agriculture's and industry's share of the total gross domestic product (GDP), yet it augments that of the service sector. To assess the proposed hypotheses, a couple of channels through which the natural resource abundance could exert influence on the countries' economy are addressed along with Dutch disease theory (as one of the channels) before estimating an econometric model with panel data for 10 oil producing countries and 10 non-oil producing countries over a 14-year period from 1993 to 2007 inclusive. The results revealed that oil price rise over the period has diminished the manufacturing's, agriculture's and, services' value added share of GDP in oil producing countries. However, no similar pattern was observed for non-oil producing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper the relation of underground economy and tax gap in Iran has been examined. The results show that the underground economy size is almost 20 percent of GDP in Iran. In this research three methods of estimation of underground economy size has been used and combined to achieve a more precise estimation. The methods that have been used are: cash, fuzzy and latent variable methods. The size of tax gap in Iran has been over 30 billion dollars in recent years. Some new payment systems as ATM cause change in money velocity which makes it necessary that new factors to be taken into account [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]