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Reconstructions of the paleoclimate indicate that ancient climatic fluctuations on Earth are often correlated with variations in its orbital elements. However, the chaos inherent in the solar system’s orbital evolution prevents numerical simulations from confidently predicting Earth’s past orbital evolution beyond 50–100 Myr. Gravitational interactions among the Sun’s planets and asteroids are believed to set this limiting time horizon, but most prior works approximate the solar system as an isolated system and neglect our surrounding Galaxy. Here we present simulations that include the Sun’s nearby stellar population, and we find that close-passing field stars alter our entire planetary system’s orbital evolution via their gravitational perturbations on the giant planets. This shortens the timespan over which Earth’s orbital evolution can be definitively known by a further ∼10%. In particular, in simulations that include an exceptionally close passage of the Sun-like star HD 7977 2.8 Myr ago, new sequences of Earth’s orbital evolution become possible in epochs before ∼50 Myr ago, which includes the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum. Thus, simulations predicting Earth’s past orbital evolution before ∼50 Myr ago must consider the additional uncertainty from passing stars, which can open new regimes of past orbital evolution not seen in previous modeling efforts.

Born as ice-rich planetesimals, cometary nuclei were gravitationally scattered onto their current orbits in the Kuiper Belt and the Oort Cloud during the giant planets’ dynamical instability in the early stages of our solar system’s history. Here, we model the thermal evolution of planetesimals during and after the giant planet instability. We couple an adapted thermal evolution model to orbital trajectories provided by N -body simulations to account for the planetesimals’ orbital evolution, a parameter so far neglected by previous thermal evolution studies. Our simulations demonstrate intense thermal processing in all planetesimal populations, mainly concerning the hypervolatile ice content. Unlike previous predictions, we show that hypervolatile survival was possible in a significant number of planetesimals of the Kuiper Belt and the Oort Cloud. Planetesimals ejected into interstellar space proved to be the most processed, while planetesimals ending in the Oort Cloud were the least processed population. We show that processing differences between populations are a direct consequence of their orbital evolution patterns, and that they provide a natural explanation for the observed variability in the abundance ratios of CO on cometary populations and on the recent observations of long-distance CO-driven activity on inbound long-period comets.

Abstract The MMX infrared spectrometer (MIRS) is an imaging spectrometer onboard MMX JAXA mission. MMX (Martian Moon eXploration) is scheduled to be launched in 2024 with sample return to Earth in 2029. MIRS is built at LESIA-Paris Observatory in collaboration with four other French laboratories, collaboration and financial support of CNES and close collaboration with JAXA and MELCO. The instrument is designed to fully accomplish MMX’s scientific and measurement objectives. MIRS will remotely provide near-infrared spectral maps of Phobos and Deimos containing compositional diagnostic spectral features that will be used to analyze the surface composition and to support the sampling site selection. MIRS will also study Mars atmosphere, in particular spatial and temporal changes such as clouds, dust and water vapor. Graphical Abstract

It was recently proposed that there exists a “gateway” in the orbital parameter space through which Centaurs transition to Jupiter-family comets (JFCs). Further studies have implied that the majority of objects that eventually evolve into JFCs should leave the Centaur population through this gateway. This may be naively interpreted as gateway Centaurs being pristine progenitors of JFCs. This is the point we want to address in this work. We show that the opposite is true: gateway Centaurs are, on average, more thermally processed than the rest of the population of Centaurs crossing Jupiter’s orbit. Using a dynamically validated JFC population, we find that only ∼20% of Centaurs pass through the gateway prior to becoming JFCs, in accordance with previous studies. We show that more than half of JFC dynamical clones entering the gateway for the first time have already been JFCs—they simply avoided the gateway on their first pass into the inner solar system. By coupling a thermal evolution model to the orbital evolution of JFC dynamical clones, we find a higher than 50% chance that the layer currently contributing to the observed activity of gateway objects has been physically and chemically altered, due to previously sustained thermal processing. We further illustrate this effect by examining dynamical clones that match the present-day orbits of 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 1, P/2019 LD2 (ATLAS), and P/2008 CL94 (Lemmon).

One of the common approximations in long-term evolution studies of small bodies is the use of circular orbits averaging the actual eccentric ones, facilitating the coupling of processes with very different timescales, such as the orbital changes and the thermal processing. Here we test a number of averaging schemes for elliptic orbits in the context of the long-term evolution of comets, aiming to identify the one that best reproduces the elliptic orbits’ heating patterns and the surface and subsurface temperature distributions. We use a simplified thermal evolution model applied on simulated comets both on elliptic and on their equivalent averaged circular orbits, in a range of orbital parameter space relevant to the inner solar system. We find that time-averaging schemes are more adequate than spatial-averaging ones. Circular orbits created by means of a time average of the equilibrium temperature approximate efficiently the subsurface temperature distributions of elliptic orbits in a large area of the orbital parameter space, rendering them a powerful tool for averaging elliptic orbits.

We have collected transit times for the TRAPPIST-1 system with the Spitzer Space Telescope over four years. We add to these ground-based, HST, and K2 transit-time measurements, and revisit an N -body dynamical analysis of the seven-planet system using our complete set of times from which we refine the mass ratios of the planets to the star. We next carry out a photodynamical analysis of the Spitzer light curves to derive the density of the host star and the planet densities. We find that all seven planets’ densities may be described with a single rocky mass–radius relation which is depleted in iron relative to Earth, with Fe 21 wt% versus 32 wt% for Earth, and otherwise Earth-like in composition. Alternatively, the planets may have an Earth-like composition but enhanced in light elements, such as a surface water layer or a core-free structure with oxidized iron in the mantle. We measure planet masses to a precision of 3%–5%, equivalent to a radial-velocity (RV) precision of 2.5 cm s ^−1 , or two orders of magnitude more precise than current RV capabilities. We find the eccentricities of the planets are very small, the orbits are extremely coplanar, and the system is stable on 10 Myr timescales. We find evidence of infrequent timing outliers, which we cannot explain with an eighth planet; we instead account for the outliers using a robust likelihood function. We forecast JWST timing observations and speculate on possible implications of the planet densities for the formation, migration, and evolution of the planet system.

AbstractTides raised on a planet by the gravity of its host star can reduce the planet's orbital semi-major axis and eccentricity. This effect is only relevant for planets orbiting very close to their host stars. The habitable zones of low-mass stars are also close in, and tides can alter the orbits of planets in these locations. We calculate the tidal evolution of hypothetical terrestrial planets around low-mass stars and show that tides can evolve planets past the inner edge of the habitable zone, sometimes in less than 1 billion years. This migration requires large eccentricities (>0.5) and low-mass stars (0.35 M). Such migration may have important implications for the evolution of the atmosphere, internal heating, and the Gaia hypothesis. Similarly, a planet that is detected interior to the habitable zone could have been habitable in the past. We consider the past habitability of the recently discovered, ∼5 M⊕planet, Gliese 581 c. We find that it could have been habitable for reasonable choices of orbital and physical properties as recently as 2 Gyr ago. However, when constraints derived from the additional companions are included, most parameter choices that indicate past habitability require the two inner planets of the system to have crossed their mutual 3:1 mean motion resonance. As this crossing would likely have resulted in resonance capture, which is not observed, we conclude that Gl 581 c was probably never habitable. Astrobiology 8, 557–568. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The water content and habitability of terrestrial planets are determined during their final assembly, from perhaps 100 1,000-km “planetary embryos ” and a swarm of billions of 1–10-km “planetesimals. ” During this process, we assume that water-rich material is accreted by terrestrial planets via impacts of water-rich bodies that originate in the outer asteroid region. We present analysis of water delivery and planetary habitability in five high-resolution simulations containing about 10 times more particles than in previous simulations. These simulations formed 15 terrestrial planets from 0.4 to 2.6 Earth masses, including five planets in the habitable zone. Every planet from each simulation accreted at least the Earth's current water budget; most accreted several times that amount (assuming no impact depletion). Each planet accreted at least five water-rich embryos and planetesimals from the past 2.5 astronomical units; most accreted 10–20 water-rich bodies. We present a new model for water delivery to terrestrial planets in dynamically calm systems, with low-eccentricity or low-mass giant planets—such systems may be very common in the Galaxy. We suggest that water is accreted in comparable amounts from a few planetary embryos in a “ hit or miss ” way and from millions of planetesimals in a statistically robust process. Variations in water content are likely to be caused by fluctuations in the number of water-rich embryos accreted, as well as from systematic effects, such as planetary mass and location, and giant planet properties. Key Words Planetary formation—Water delivery—Extrasolar planets—Cosmochemistry. Astrobiology 7(1), 66–84. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present empirical evidence, supported by a planet formation model, to show that the curve approximates the location of the so-called photo-evaporation valley. Planets below that curve are likely to have experienced complete photo-evaporation, and planets just above it appear to have inflated radii; thus we identify a new population of inflated super-Earths and mini-Neptunes. Our N-body simulations are set within an evolving protoplanetary disk and include prescriptions for orbital migration, gas accretion, and atmospheric loss due to giant impacts. Our simulated systems broadly match the sizes and periods of super-Earths in the Kepler catalog. They also reproduce the relative sizes of adjacent planets in the same system, with the exception of planet pairs that straddle the photo-evaporation valley. This latter group is populated by planet pairs with either very large or very small size ratios (Rout/Rin ≫ 1 or Rout/Rin ≪ 1) and a dearth of size ratios near unity. It appears that this feature could be reproduced if the planet outside the photo-evaporation valley (typically the outer planet, but sometimes not) has its atmosphere significantly expanded by stellar irradiation. This new population of planets may be ideal targets for future transit spectroscopy observations with the upcoming James Webb Space Telescope. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main asteroid belt (MB) is low in mass but dynamically excited. Here we propose a new mechanism to excite the MB during the giant planet (the “Nice model”) instability, which is expected to feature repeated close encounters between Jupiter and one or more ice giants (“jumping Jupiter” or JJ). We show that, when Jupiter temporarily reaches a high-enough level of excitation, both in eccentricity and inclination, it induces strong forced vectors of eccentricity and inclination across the MB region. Because during the JJ instability Jupiter’s orbit “jumps” around, the forced vectors keep changing both in magnitude and phase throughout the whole MB region. The entire cold primordial MB is thus excited as a natural outcome of the JJ instability. The level of such an excitation, however, is typically larger than the current orbital excitation observed in the MB. We show that the subsequent evolution of the solar system is capable of reshaping the resultant overexcited MB to its present-day orbital state, and that a strong mass depletion (∼90%) is associated with the JJ instability phase and its subsequent evolution throughout the age of the solar system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Planet–planet scattering is the leading mechanism to explain the broad eccentricity distribution of observed giant exoplanets. Here we study the orbital stability of primordial giant planet moons in this scenario. We use N-body simulations including realistic oblateness and evolving spin evolution for the giant planets. We find that the vast majority (∼80%–90% across all our simulations) of orbital parameter space for moons is destabilized. There is a strong radial dependence, as moons past are systematically removed. Closer-in moons on Galilean-moon-like orbits (<0.04 RHill) have a good (∼20%–40%) chance of survival. Destabilized moons may undergo a collision with the star or a planet, be ejected from the system, be captured by another planet, be ejected but still orbiting its free-floating host planet, or survive on heliocentric orbits as “planets.” The survival rate of moons increases with the host planet mass but is independent of the planet’s final (post-scattering) orbits. Based on our simulations, we predict the existence of an abundant galactic population of free-floating (former) moons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Planets are thought to form via accretion from a remnant disk of gas and solids around a newly formed star. During this process, material in the disk either remains bound to the star as part of either a planet, a smaller celestial body, or makes up part of the the interplanetary medium; falls into the star; or is ejected from the system. Herein we use dynamical models to probe the abundance and properties of ejected material during late-stage planet formation and estimate their contribution to the free-floating planet population. We present 300 N-body simulations of terrestrial planet formation around a solar-type star, with and without giant planets present, using a model that accounts for collisional fragmentation. In simulations with Jupiter and Saturn analogs, about one-third of the initial (∼5 M⊕) disk mass is ejected, about half in planets more massive than Mercury but with a mass lower than 0.3 M⊕, and the remainder in smaller bodies. Most ejections occur within 25 Myr, which is shorter than the timescale typically required for Earth-mass planets to grow (30–100 Myr). When giant planets are omitted from our simulations, almost no material is ejected within 200 Myr and only about 1% of the initial disk is ejected by 2 Gyr. We show that about 2.5 terrestrial-mass planets are ejected per star in the Galaxy. We predict that the space-borne microlensing search for free-floating planets from the Wide-Field Infra-Red Space Telescope will discover up to 15 Mars-mass planets, but few free-floating Earth-mass planets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The orbital structure of the asteroid belt holds a record of the solar system’s dynamical history. The current belt only contains ∼10−3 Earth masses yet the asteroids’ orbits are dynamically excited, with a large spread in eccentricity and inclination. In the context of models of terrestrial planet formation, the belt may have been excited by Jupiter’s orbital migration. The terrestrial planets can also be reproduced without invoking a migrating Jupiter; however, as it requires a severe mass deficit beyond Earth’s orbit, this model systematically under-excites the asteroid belt. Here we show that the orbits of the asteroids may have been excited to their current state if Jupiter’s and Saturn’s early orbits were chaotic. Stochastic variations in the gas giants’ orbits cause resonances to continually jump across the main belt and excite the asteroids’ orbits on a timescale of tens of millions of years. While hydrodynamical simulations show that the gas giants were likely in mean motion resonance at the end of the gaseous disk phase, small perturbations could have driven them into a chaotic but stable state. The gas giants’ current orbits were achieved later, during an instability in the outer solar system. Although it is well known that the present-day solar system exhibits chaotic behavior, our results suggest that the early solar system may also have been chaotic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]