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Objective: To predict the accident mortality trend in next two decades in Iran.Methods: The study population comprised all deaths recorded in the system of registration and classification of causes of death of Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran during the years 2006 to 2015. The information was collected via death certificate, burial permit, and reporting forms. To forecast the trends of causes-of-death, Lee Carter model was employed in a demographic package 18.1 of R software version 3.3.1.Results: Based on the results, the highest percentage of all causes of death from accidents (in unintentional accidents) goes to transport accidents, and most top intentional accidents belonged to intentional self-harm. The trends of unintentional accidents in the whole population and both sexes have reduced from 2006 to 2035, such that the rate has reduced from 62.2 in 2006 to 12.1 per 100 thousand populations in 2035. It is anticipated that the causes of death due to intentional accidents with the rate of 8.86 in 2006, will be 1.89 (per 100,000 population) in the year 2035.Conclusion: Accident mortalities have a significant role in the deaths of Iranian population; therefore, to reduce the impact of accident mortality on society, a precise approach is needed to monitor the trends as well as preventing measures and increasing the safety standards.

Summary: Background: Child mortality as one of the key Millennium Development Goals (MDG 4—to reduce child mortality by two-thirds from 1990 to 2015), is included in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 3, target 2—to reduce child mortality to fewer than 25 deaths per 1000 livebirths for all countries by 2030), and is a key indicator of the health system in every country. In this study, we aimed to estimate the level and trend of child mortality from 1990 to 2015 in Iran, to assess the progress of the country and its provinces toward these goals. Methods: We used three different data sources: three censuses, a Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), and 5-year data from the death registration system. We used the summary birth history data from four data sources (the three censuses and DHS) and used maternal age cohort and maternal age period methods to estimate the trends in child mortality rates, combining the estimates of these two indirect methods using Loess regression. We also used the complete birth history method to estimate child mortality rate directly from DHS data. Finally, to synthesise different trends into a single trend and calculate uncertainty intervals (UI), we used Gaussian process regression. Findings: Under-5 mortality rates (deaths per 1000 livebirths) at the national level in Iran in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2015 were 63·6 (95% UI 63·1–64·0), 38·8 (38·5–39·2), 24·9 (24·3–25·4), and 19·4 (18·6–20·2), respectively. Between 1990 and 2015, the median annual reduction and total overall reduction in these rates were 4·9% and 70%, respectively. At the provincial level, the difference between the highest and lowest child mortality rates in 1990, 2000, and 2015 were 65·6, 40·4, and 38·1 per 1000 livebirths, respectively. Based on the MDG 4 goal, five provinces had not decreased child mortality by two-thirds by 2015. Furthermore, six provinces had not reached SDG 3 (target 2). Interpretation: Iran and most of its provinces achieved MDG 4 and SDG 3 (target 2) goals by 2015. However, at the subnational level in some provinces, there is substantial inequity. Local policy makers should use effective strategies to accelerate the reduction of child mortality for these provinces by 2030. Possible recommendations for such strategies include enhancing the level of education and health literacy among women, tackling sex discrimination, and improving incomes for families. Funding: Iran Ministry of Health and Education.