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Significant progress has been made in cereal production in Bangladesh due to an agricultural policy environment that prioritizes the productivity of staple crops over fruit and vegetables (F&V). However, many smallholder farmers remain poorly connected to markets, which may lead to a limited supply response of F&V that can reduce opportunities for sufficient intake in neglected, consumer-facing, smaller retail markets. To address this issue, aggregation schemes have been conceived that collect and transport F&Vs on behalf of multiple farmers. Given the volume of horticultural produce produced and the reliance on developed transport infrastructure, aggregation schemes tend to supply wholesale and urban markets rather than underdeveloped rural and isolated markets. To this end, we investigated how a particular aggregation intervention ('Loop') could potentially improve the distribution of F&V to smaller markets whilst improving farmer benefits. We used an innovative system dynamics modeling approach based on Loop's aggregation services in Jashore, Bangladesh, and to identify the potential trade-offs between consumer outcomes in retail markets and farmer benefits. We find that combining aggregation with a quota at the smaller market, transport subsidy, and current price growth does not result in trade-offs between consumer purchases and farmers'benefits. However, combining aggregation with current price growth can increase demand without losing farmers'benefits. The findings emphasize that standalone and multiple market-oriented interventions generate broader win-win benefits to promote inclusive food systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional approaches for assessing supply chain vulnerability do not capture endogenous disruptions emanating from chain actors' decisions that might increase value chain vulnerability. These approaches adopt a reactive analytical explanation of vulnerability, rather than one that considers issues of feedback effects. To address this issue, this paper adopts a system dynamics modelling approach to identify the precursors of vulnerabilities in Ghana's cocoa value chain. The paper assesses the vulnerability levels of the cocoa value chain by adjusting the baseline values of several key parameters that can be influenced by chain actors. Results of the sensitivity analyses indicate that the precursors of vulnerability situated upstream of the cocoa value chain have varying impacts on chain vulnerability, but the same magnitude of effect on the vulnerability levels of chain actors. However, precursors of vulnerability that are situated midstream of the cocoa value chain have an unequal magnitude of effect on the vulnerability levels of chain actors. Results suggest that policies governing cocoa trading can become countervailing factors that obstruct the government's call for upgrading along the cocoa value chain. The system dynamics model presented here enables a proactive assessment of vulnerability which can facilitate collaborative planning among stakeholders in the value chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research has highlighted the valuable contributions that participatory processes contribute in developing system dynamics models of value chains with stakeholders. A new participatory process known as spatial group model building (SGMB) expands these insights, using maps and GIS concepts to improve the facilitation and modelling process. This practical note provides an overview of SGMB, its recent applications in informing development interventions, and proposed innovations to expand its use and dissemination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animal‐source foods (ASF) are an important source of nutrients in many developing countries. However, there is limited information on the demand for ASF and the factors influencing their consumption. This study assessed spatial and temporal patterns of ASF consumption in Tanzania using data from a nationally representative household survey. Price and expenditure elasticities of ASF demand were estimated by applying a censored Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) model. Results showed a 30% increase in weekly household expenditure on ASF from USD 3.02 in 2008 to USD 3.94 in 2014. The likelihood of a household purchasing ASF was 4.5 percentage points higher in urban compared to rural areas. With the exception of dried fish, the expenditure elasticity of ASF demand was positive and statistically significant. Expenditure and own‐price elasticities were largest for chicken and lowest for dried fish. The responsiveness of ASF demand to own‐price changes was higher in rural than urban areas in all cases. The findings imply that public policies that either raise household incomes or lower ASF prices have the potential to increase the consumption of ASF and consequently improve food and nutrition security in Tanzania. [EconLit Citations: C33, D12, Q18]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The implementation of structural adjustment programs (SAPs) has often been undermined by opposition from politically powerful groups who are favored by existing policies. To assess the political sustainability of SAPs this paper uses social accounting matrices for three African countries to model the income effects of stylized SAPs on different socioeconomic groups. The analysis reveals wide variation in the likelihood for typical SAPs to be acceptable to political elites while generating growth in the rest of the economy. The presence of a rural elite or strong farm-nonfarm linkages can enhance the political sustainability of SAPs. Key words - Africa, Cameroon, The Gambia, structural adjustment, SAM

Understanding the patterns and drivers of antibiotic use in livestock is crucial for tailoring efficient incentives for responsible use of antibiotics. Here we compared routines for antibiotic use between pig farms of two different levels of intensification in Khon Kaen province in Thailand. Among the 113 family-owned small-scale farms (up to 50 sows) interviewed did 76% get advice from the pharmacy about how to use the antibiotics and 84% used it primarily for treating disease. Among the 51 medium-scale-farms (100–500 sows) belonging to two companies did 100% get advice about antibiotic use from the company's veterinarian (P<0.0001) and 94% used antibiotics mostly as disease preventive measure (P<0.0001). In 2 small scale farms 3rd generation cephalosporins, tylosin or colistin were used; antibiotics belonging to the group of highest priority critically important antimicrobials for human medicine. Enrofloxacin, belonging to the same group of antimicrobials, was used in 33% of the small-scale and 41% of the medium-scale farms. In the latter farms, the companies supplied 3–4 antibiotics belonging to different classes and those were the only antibiotics used in the farms. The median and mean estimated expenditure on antibiotics per sow was 4.8 USD (IQR = 5.8) for small-scale farms and 7 USD and 3.4 USD for the medium-scale farms belonging to the two respective companies. Our observations suggest to target the following areas when pig farming transitions from small-scale to medium-scale: (i) strengthening access to professional animal health services for all farmers, (ii) review of the competence and role of veterinary pharmacies in selling antibiotics and (iii) adjustment of farming company animal health protocols towards more medically rational use of antibiotics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper conducts ex-ante impact assessments for policy interventions to promote amaranth value chains in Tanzania and Kenya. Amaranth is an underdeveloped, drought-resistant, and nutrition-rich crop used for human food, animal fodder, and ornamental purposes. Promoting amaranth value chains is a difficult task, given that amaranth is not a well-established commodity and has limited market outlets in the developing world at present. This paper provides a framework within which conduct scenario analysis of ways to promote amaranth value chains using system dynamics (SD). We constructed an integrated amaranth production and market model to evaluate the impact of producer adoption of improved production technologies (improved seed varieties), and changes in demand for amaranth products, on producer profits and planting behaviour. The results of our model show that the profitably upgrading and commercialising of amaranth value chains require multifaceted and chain-level interventions that improve supply- and demand-side conditions. Interventions that target only the supply side serve to increase amaranth production, but generate minor economic gain for producers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using market access to achieve developmental aims has long been held as a key tenet of global development policy. Using a case study approach based on interviews along and across the beef value chain between Namibia, Botswana, and Norway, this article addresses the question of whether market access to high-value markets for livestock products has developmental benefits. The costs and benefits of using market access for beef products as a developmental policy tool are identified and the key role played by international meat traders in both upgrading and rent capture discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

East Coast Fever (ECF) is the most economically important production disease among traditional beef cattle farmers in Zambia. Despite the disease control efforts by the government, donors, and farmers, ECF cases are increasing. Why does ECF oscillate over time? Can alternative approaches such as systems thinking contribute solutions to the complex ECF problem, avoid unintended consequences, and achieve sustainable results? To answer these research questions and inform the design and implementation of ECF interventions, we qualitatively investigated the influence of dynamic socio-economic, cultural, and ecological factors. We used system dynamics modelling to specify these dynamics qualitatively, and an innovative participatory framework called spatial group model building (SGMB). SGMB uses participatory geographical information system (GIS) concepts and techniques to capture the role of spatial phenomenon in the context of complex systems, allowing stakeholders to identify spatial phenomenon directly on physical maps and integrate such information in model development. Our SGMB process convened focus groups of beef value chain stakeholders in two distinct production systems. The focus groups helped to jointly construct a series of interrelated system dynamics models that described ECF in a broader systems context. Thus, a complementary objective of this study was to demonstrate the applicability of system dynamics modelling and SGMB in animal health. The SGMB process revealed policy leverage points in the beef cattle value chain that could be targeted to improve ECF control. For example, policies that develop sustainable and stable cattle markets and improve household income availability may have positive feedback effects on investment in animal health. The results obtained from a SGMB process also demonstrated that a “one-size-fits-all” approach may not be equally effective in policing ECF in different agro-ecological zones due to the complex interactions of socio-ecological context with important, and often ignored, spatial patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Achieving inclusive value chain development is a challenging task due to the complex and dynamic nature of interconnected value chains and their social, economic, and ecological dimensions. While many policies and intervention options exist to upgrade value chains, there are fewer methods that can be used to understand and quantify the multidimensional impacts that value chain policies and interventions may have throughout the value chain. This paper addresses this methodological gap by employing a system dynamics (SD) modeling approach. SD models allow us to model and quantify the processes and relationships inherent in the value chain through simulations, serving as a policy laboratory for the empirical assessment of intervention options. An SD model of the Matiguás dairy value chain in Nicaragua was developed and tested through a participatory modeling process. Our research tested and evaluated the short-, medium-, and long-term impacts of specific interventions and policies in the Matiguás dairy value chain with the goal of strengthening the competitiveness and inclusion of small- and medium-scale producers. These interventions centered on improving the feeding system, which was identified by stakeholders as the critical constraint to competitiveness. The policy analysis reveals that both improved pastures and increased use of concentrates raise producer milk productivity by 5% and 11%, respectively in the long run, but are also expensive strategies for smallholder producers, leading to a reduction in profits relative to the baseline by 1% and 3%, respectively. Consequently, policymakers should identify strategies that help to reduce concentrate costs and support producers with investments in improved pasture, while also promoting training in pasture management skills. Indeed, in the long-run, model results reveal that investment and training in pasture management results in a 30% and 35% increase in milk production during the wet and dry season, respectively. Simulation results further highlighted that intensifying the feeding system to improve cow milk yields is mainly profitable in the long term, and thus requires a longer-term perspective by policymakers. The model provides a deeper understanding of the complex and dynamic nature of the Matiguás dairy value chain and the interactions between markets, coordination aspects, biophysical phenomena, and income. The system dynamics approach to value chain analysis further addresses a major analytical shortcoming in value chain analysis and provides decision makers with an improved platform for planning and policy formulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animal diseases are global issues affecting the productivity and financial profitability of affected farms. Johne’s disease is distributed on farms worldwide and is an endemic contagious bacterial infection in ruminants caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis. In cattle, the clinical disease manifests itself as chronic enteritis resulting in reduced production, weight loss, and eventually death. Johne’s disease is prevalent in the UK, including Scotland. Direct costs and losses associated with Johne’s disease have been estimated in previous research, confirming an important economic impact of the disease in UK herds. Despite this, the distributional impact of Johne’s disease among milk consumers and producers in Scotland has not been estimated. In this paper, we evaluate the change in society’s economic welfare, namely to dairy producers (i.e. infected and uninfected herds) and milk consumers in Scotland induced by the introduction of Johne’s disease in the national Scottish dairy herd. At the national-level, we conclude that the economic burden falls mainly on producers of infected herds and, to a lesser extent, milk consumers, while producers of uninfected herds benefit from the presence of Johne’s. An infected producer’s loss per cow is approximately two times larger in magnitude than that of an uninfected producer’s gain. Such economic welfare estimates are an important comparison of the relative costs of national herd prevalence and the wider economic welfare implications for both producers and consumers. This is particularly important from a policy, public good, cost sharing, and human health perspective. The economic welfare framework presented in this paper can be applied to other diseases to examine the relative burden of society’s economic welfare of alternative livestock disease scenarios. In addition, the sensitivity analysis evaluates uncertainty in economic welfare given limited data and uncertainty in the national herd prevalence, and other input parameters, associated with Johne’s disease in Scotland. Therefore, until the prevalence of Johne’s is better understood, the full economic cost to Scottish dairy herds remains uncertain but in the meantime the sensitivity analysis evaluates the robustness of economic welfare to such uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Certification programs have been employed in many agricultural products as a means to encourage and communicate compliance with standards associated with various attributes, such as organic, fair-trade, GMO free, and eco-friendly, among others. Such programs further seek to provide added value, through a price premium, to producers and supply chain actors associated with the label. In this paper, we review a number of global labeling and certification programs that could add value for coffee farms in India through the promotion of conservation and environmental protection. We provide results from a survey conducted on a sample of coffee farms in Coorg district, India, to assess their awareness and perceptions related toward certified coffee and environmental conservation in general. Survey results illustrate strong positive associations with the environment by coffee planters, particularly among certified and organic producers. However, price premiums for certified and organic coffee are relatively small. While the potential of conservation-oriented certification for coffee in Coorg could be relatively limited outside of a few individual-level niches, branding Coorg more generally as a conservation-oriented region could hold promise, leveraging and personalizing the uniqueness of the natural offerings from Coorg and tapping into burgeoning associations with place and region in India. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This study investigates factors influencing both the use of conservation agriculture (CA) and the intensity of its uptake amongst 237 smallholders sampled in the Masvingo district of Zimbabwe. The intensity of uptake was measured using an index that accounted for the number of CA components used, their relative importance, and the rate and extent of their application. Previous studies ignore some or all of these important aspects of uptake. The determinants of use and intensity were identified using a double hurdle model. Although most smallholders applied the reduced tillage or crop rotation components of CA, few combined these practices with mulching. Farm size and experience with CA technology impacted positively on the current use of CA, while distance from town (market) and ownership of an ox-drawn plough reduced the intensity of its uptake. Sensitivity analysis showed that these results change when partial measures of CA uptake are used, emphasising the importance of establishing a comprehensive measure of intensity. Policy implications include a need for institutional change to improve smallholder access to cropland, more participatory approaches to agricultural extension, and more convenient access to farm inputs. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In Nicaragua, the production of dairy and beef is the most important source of household income for many smallholder producers. However, erratic volumes and quality of milk limit the participation of small- and mediumscale cattle farmers into higher-value dairy value chains. This research uses a system dynamics (SD) approach to analyze the Matiguás dairy value chain in Nicaragua. The paper presents the conceptual framework of the model and highlights the dynamic processes in the value chain, with a focus on improving feeding systems to achieve higher milk productivity and increased income for producers. The model was developed using a participatory group model building (GMB) technique to jointly conceptualize and validate the model with stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an important cause of mortality and production loss among sheep and goats in the developing world. Despite control efforts in a number of countries, it has continued to spread across Africa and Asia, placing an increasing burden on the livelihoods of livestock keepers and on veterinary resources in affected countries. Given the similarities between PPR and rinderpest, and the lessons learned from the successful global eradication of rinderpest, the eradication of PPR seems appealing, both eliminating an important disease and improving the livelihoods of the poor in developing countries. We conducted a benefit-cost analysis to examine the economic returns from a proposed programme for the global eradication of PPR. Based on our knowledge and experience, we developed the eradication strategy and estimated its costs. The benefits of the programme were determined from (i) the averted mortality costs, based on an analysis of the literature, (ii) the downstream impact of reduced mortality using a social accounting matrix, and (iii) the avoided control costs based on current levels of vaccination. The results of the benefit-cost analysis suggest strong economic returns from PPR eradication. Based on a 15-year programme with total discounted costs of US$2.26 billion, we estimate discounted benefits of US$76.5 billion, yielding a net benefit of US$74.2 billion. This suggests a benefit cost ratio of 33.8, and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 199%. As PPR mortality rates are highly variable in different populations, we conducted a sensitivity analysis based on lower and higher mortality scenarios. All the scenarios examined indicate that investment in PPR eradication would be highly beneficial economically. Furthermore, removing one of the major constraints to small ruminant production would be of considerable benefit to many of the most vulnerable communities in Africa and Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Market access for African livestock products has long been stymied by a variety of animal diseases endemic in the region. The concept of commodity-based trade (CBT) has been advanced to make trade dependent on process-related attributes of production that ensure freedom from disease rather than the geographical origin of the animals themselves. This article looks at the potential of CBT in improving market access for beef from communal areas of Namibia, which have historically been excluded from high-value export markets. Model results suggest only modest gains from CBT, given the substantial costs of compliance with SPS and quality standards required for high-value markets. Regional markets may still offer the best option for beef exports from these areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Various methodologies have been used to model the epidemiology and economics of aquatic diseases, including input-output models, benefit-cost analysis, linear programming, compartment models based on differential equations, and spatial models. Despite the virtues of each of these models, there is a need to develop a more integrated approach to the epidemiology and economics of disease that better represents and captures existing feedback mechanisms that can influence the success of disease control interventions and their cost-effectiveness. In this paper, we motivate the use of system dynamics (SD) modeling in the context of sea lice control in Norwegian farmed salmon. Separate models of sea lice and salmon growth were designed and integrated to capture the feedbacks between them. Different simulation scenarios highlight the benefits of the approach. Model results indicated that changing the timing and type of treatment vis-à-vis current practices can markedly reduce sea lice infection pressures; such simulated practices are also more cost effective. Our approach further highlights how delays and feedbacks present in these systems influence the success of any disease control protocol, and demonstrates the utility that SD models can play in aquatic health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smallholder farmers have difficulties entering established value chains with value-added products. In this paper, we look at smallholders' capability to establish and sustainably manage a competitive and economically viable local dairy value chain through the case of Twawose, a small dairy goat co-operative in Tanzania. The analysis uses a value chain approach as a framework to identify the possibilities for upgrading and the determinants of competitiveness in value chains in which smallholder farmers can participate. Results highlight the benefits Twawose participants receive, but caution that a multitude of constraints could impede scaling-up in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Market access for livestock products from Africa has traditionally been limited by the presence of certain infectious diseases that pose risks to animal and human health. However, an increasingly discussed option for widening that access is commodity-based trade (CBT) focusing on the health and safety attributes of the product rather than the disease status of the country of origin. There have, however, been few analyses on the potential economic impacts and unintended consequences of such an approach. This article examines the principles behind a dramatic shift in approach to trading opportunities that CBT might bring, exploring both technical and economic considerations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Endemic foot and mouth disease (FMD) in East African cattle systems is one factor that limits access to export markets. The probability of FMD transmission associated with export from such systems have never been quantified and there is a need for data and analyses to guide strategies for livestock exports from regions where FMD remains endemic. The probability of infection among animals at slaughter is an important contributor to the risk of FMD transmission associated with the final beef product. In this study, we built a stochastic model to estimate the probability that beef cattle reach slaughter while infected with FMD virus for four production systems in two East African countries (Kenya and Uganda). Input values were derived from the primary literature and expert opinion. We found that the risk that FMD-infected animals reach slaughter under current conditions is high in both countries (median annual probability ranging from 0.05 among cattle from Kenyan feedlots to 0.62 from Ugandan semi-intensive systems). Cattle originating from feedlot and ranching systems in Kenya had the lowest overall probabilities of the eight systems evaluated. The final probabilities among cattle from all systems were sensitive to the likelihood of acquiring new infections en route to slaughter and especially the probability and extent of commingling with other cattle. These results give insight into factors that could be leveraged by potential interventions to lower the probability of FMD among beef cattle at slaughter. Such interventions should be evaluated considering the cost, logistics, and tradeoffs of each, ultimately guiding resource investment that is grounded in the values and capacity of each country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Myanmar has made rapid economic progress since the country began its transition to a more integrated market economy in the late 2000s. Although these gains are led by positive developments in the agricultural sector, agricultural productivity and profitability are among the lowest in Asia with high rates of poverty especially in rural areas. Small-scale farms dominate rural livelihoods in Myanmar, especially for the 87% of Myanmar's poor who live in rural areas. Hence, these small-scale farms are critical development leverage points as they are an important source of rural incomes to both farm and non-farm households. This study is part of a larger, five-year agricultural research and development project intended to upgrade pork and rice value chains and strengthen rural livelihoods in southern Myanmar's Tanintharyi Region. We evaluated producer-focused interventions to upgrade the pork value chain using tools that consider the dynamic and complex nature of the chain. This research used systems thinking and participatory methods to develop a system dynamics model of the pork value chain in southern Myanmar. The model integrated modules of animal production, marketing, investment, finance, and collective action. Scenario analysis with the model guided recommendations for pro-poor interventions for implementation within the five-year development project. Simulation results indicated that a mix of technical interventions implemented by functional producer groups showed promise in delivering sustained financial benefits to the target community and outperformed the short-term gains generated by these interventions in the absence of collective action. The model also highlighted specific interventions, such as improved financial services, animal health workers, and training that enabled poorer households to benefit from pig livelihoods while reducing risks from environmental and economic shocks. Within complex agri-food systems such as the pork value chain in Tanintharyi, a multi-pronged intervention strategy is recommended to address problems faced by small-scale agribusiness value chain participants. Development interventions tend to be implemented in complex environments, often with scarce data to inform decision-making. This research shows how system dynamics tools and spatial group model building processes could help overcome these inherent challenges by creating virtual laboratories where plausible project interventions can be tested and modified, bringing increased confidence to implementation choices. [Display omitted] • Pig production is an important livelihood activity among small-scale farmers in Myanmar, but pork value chains are weak. • We applied systems thinking and participatory methods to develop a system dynamics model of a local pork value chain. • Of the interventions assessed, financial services, animal health workers, and training were most beneficial to pig farmers. • A combination of interventions managed by producer groups showed promise in sustaining financial benefits to smallholders. • System dynamics tools provide a cost-effective way of evaluating, ex-ante, interventions in complex agri-food value chains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because many animal diseases have strong transboundary attributes, their control can be reasonably characterised as an international public good. The potential for reservoirs of transboundary diseases to persist in developing countries that lack the capacity or incentives to control them implies a need for international financial transfers to fund control. However, the costs of control can be large compared with development assistance budgets, and the benefits small compared with the global benefits of control and the local benefits of other priority investments. This article outlines a framework for setting priorities for international development assistance for animal disease control based on the incidence of market and non-market impacts and the context in which outbreaks take place in endemic and susceptible countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is costly for meat producers, given its ability to rapidly spread over space, with control efforts in one region crucially depending on the control efforts undertaken in other regions. This paper presents a model of FMD control that applies system dynamics to the spatial spread of disease among South American countries with traditionally different control regimes and assesses the impact of alternative control strategies. Model results demonstrate that preventative vaccination led to shorter outbreaks (by over 2 weeks) than other strategies, though the resources required to implement this may be difficult to mobilize. The model also shows that a combination of region-specific policies often controls disease better than uniform region-wide approaches, suggesting the need for improved multinational coordination of disease control. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is growing recognition that food systems must adapt to become more sustainable and equitable. Consequently, in developing country contexts, there is increasing momentum away from traditional producer-facing value chain upgrades towards efforts to increase both the availability and affordability of nutritious foods at the consumer level. However, such goals must navigate the inherent complexities of agricultural value chains, which involve multiple interactions, feedbacks and unintended consequences, including important but often surprising trade-offs between producers and consumers. Based around the 'Loop' horticultural aggregation scheme of Digital Green in Bihar, India, we develop a system dynamics modelling framework to survey the value chain trade-offs emerging from upgrades that aim to improve the availability of fruits and vegetables in small retail-oriented markets. We model the processes of horticultural production, aggregation, marketing, and retailing – searching for futures that are 'win-win-win' for: (i) the availability of fruits and vegetables in small retail markets, (ii) the profits of farmers participating in aggregation, and (iii) the sustainability of the initial scheme for Digital Green as an organisation. We simulate two internal upgrades to aggregation and two upgrades to the wider enabling environment through a series of 5000 Monte Carlo trajectories – designed to explore the plausible future dynamics of the three outcome dimensions relative to the baseline. We find that 'win-win-win' futures cannot be achieved by internal changes to the aggregation scheme alone, emerging under a narrow range of scenarios that boost supplies to the small retail market whilst simultaneously supporting the financial takeaways of farmers. In contrast, undesirable producer versus consumer trade-offs emerge as unintended consequences of scaling-up aggregation and the introduction of market-based cold storage. This approach furthers ongoing efforts to capture complex value chain processes, outcomes and upgrades within system dynamics modelling frameworks, before scanning the horizon of plausible external scenarios, internal dynamics and unintended trade-offs to identify 'win-win-win' futures for all. [Display omitted] • It is increasingly acknowledged that food system interventions must benefit both producers and consumers • We develop a systems tool to explore trade-offs emerging from adapting value chain interventions to become more consumer-sensitive • Futures with improved local vegetable delivery, producer profits and intervention costs are traced to their causal dynamics • 'Win-win-wins' require improved local retail demands to attract farmers away from urban markets without weakening profits • Systems-based approaches can horizon-scan plausible futures that navigate complex trade-offs in agricultural value chains [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The livestock-dairy sector in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Rwanda, is experiencing rapid growth due to population expansion, urbanisation, and changing food preferences. The unmet local production demands are causing soil and water pollution, competition for biomass, land, and water, but also grassland degradation, biodiversity loss, and increased GHGs emissions. Rwanda has the lowest productivity in the region, largely due to inadequate and poor-quality livestock feed resources. To increase animal productivity, promoting forage species with higher nutritional value and better adaptation to drought-prone and poor-fertility soils could be beneficial. Using a mixed-methods approach, the study explores Brachiaria forage adoption and profitability and analyses policy objectives and measures to overcome adoption barriers and promote the transition from subsistence to market-oriented systems. Results show that Brachiaria, although advantageous from an economic point of view, is characterised by very low adoption rates. Furthermore, access to extension programmes is limited and often not supported by adequate incentives. To overcome such barriers, policy interventions should be harmonised and information and knowledge management prioritised, public and private extension and advisory services (EASs) programmes coordinated, agricultural input subsidies increased, and institutional coordination promoted to enhance climate-smart animal feeding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the economic effects of foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) by employing a regional, dynamic computable general equilibrium model in tandem with results from an epidemiological model to simulate an FMD outbreak in Brazil. Outbreaks located in Paraná and Mato Grosso negatively impact other states in Brazil, demonstrating a spillover effect of economic losses beyond the region directly affected by the disease. Results highlight the distributive effects of FMD outbreaks with most of the negative impacts falling predominantly on lower income workers and households. This study shows the importance of animal disease surveillance and control and provides estimates of the potential economywide effects of an FMD outbreak in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While demands for animal disease surveillance systems are growing, there has been little applied research that has examined the interactions between resource allocation, cost-effectiveness, and behavioral considerations of actors throughout the livestock supply chain in a surveillance system context. These interactions are important as feedbacks between surveillance decisions and disease evolution may be modulated by their contextual drivers, influencing the cost-effectiveness of a given surveillance system. This paper identifies a number of key behavioral aspects involved in animal health surveillance systems and reviews some novel methodologies for their analysis. A generic framework for analysis is discussed, with exemplar results provided to demonstrate the utility of such an approach in guiding better disease control and surveillance decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The liberalization of beef exports in Botswana is hotly debated among policy makers and relevant value chain actors. While some policy makers argue that such a move might increase prices for producers and make beef unaffordable for consumers, others suggest an open market would reduce the profitability of the beef sector in Botswana. At the same time, these impacts will be mediated by the presence of animal disease and the availability of sufficient feed and water. In this paper, we constructed an integrated system dynamics (SD) model that captures the feedbacks between the biological dynamics of cattle production, the economics of animal and meat marketing and trade, and the impacts that environmental pressures such as rainfall and animal disease have on the system. We used this model to run a series of scenarios associated with market liberalization and animal health shocks to quantify their impacts throughout the value chain, taking into account the feedbacks between biology, markets, and environment on the value chain itself. This approach allows for a holistic evaluation of policy options on different chain actors and whole chain performance, and provides a knowledge base for prioritizing interventions. Model results suggested that although disease control policies benefit all value chain actors, gains from market liberalization come at the expense of substantial losses to Botswana Meat Commission (BMC) and its contracted feedlots. They also suggest that combining market liberalization policy reforms with better animal disease controls greatly improved the financial performance of all value chain actors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of EuroChoices is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)