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We assembled the first gridded burned area (BA) database of national wildfire data (ONFIRE), a comprehensive and integrated resource for researchers, non-government organisations, and government agencies analysing wildfires in various regions of the Earth. We extracted and harmonised records from different regions and sources using open and reproducible methods, providing data in a common framework for the whole period available (starting from 1950 in Australia, 1959 in Canada, 1985 in Chile, 1980 in Europe, and 1984 in the United States) up to 2021 on a common 1° × 1° grid. The data originate from national agencies (often, ground mapping), thus representing the best local expert knowledge. Key opportunities and limits in using this dataset are discussed as well as possible future expansions of this open-source approach that should be explored. This dataset complements existing gridded BA data based on remote sensing and offers a valuable opportunity to better understand and assess fire regime changes, and their drivers, in these regions. The ONFIRE database can be freely accessed at https://zenodo.org/record/8289245 .

Abstract Better understanding how fires respond to climate variability is an issue of current interest in light of ongoing climate change. However, evaluating the global‐scale temporal variability of fires in response to climate presents a challenge due to the intricate processes at play and the limitation of fire data. Here, we investigate the links between year‐to‐year variability of burned area (BA) and climate using BA data, the Fire Weather Index (FWI), and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) from 2001 to 2021 at ecoregion scales. Our results reveal complex spatial patterns in the dependence of BA variability on antecedent and concurrent weather conditions, highlighting where BA is mostly influenced by either FWI or SPEI and where the combined effect of both indicators must be considered. Our findings indicate that same‐season weather conditions have a more pronounced relationship with BA across various ecoregions, particularly in climatologically wetter areas. Additionally, we note that BA is also significantly associated with periods of antecedent wetness and coolness, with this association being especially evident in more arid ecoregions. About 60% of the interannual variations in BA can be explained by climatic variability in a large fraction (∼77%) of the world's burnable regions.

Abstract Background The Million Veteran Program (MVP) participants represent 100 years of US history, including significant social and demographic changes over time. Our study assessed two aspects of the MVP: (i) longitudinal changes in population diversity and (ii) how these changes can be accounted for in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). To investigate these aspects, we divided MVP participants into five birth cohorts (N-range = 123,888 [born from 1943 to 1947] to 136,699 [born from 1948 to 1953]). Results Ancestry groups were defined by (i) HARE (harmonized ancestry and race/ethnicity) and (ii) a random-forest clustering approach using the 1000 Genomes Project and the Human Genome Diversity Project (1kGP + HGDP) reference panels (77 world populations representing six continental groups). In these groups, we performed GWASs of height, a trait potentially affected by population stratification. Birth cohorts demonstrate important trends in ancestry diversity over time. More recent HARE-assigned Europeans, Africans, and Hispanics had lower European ancestry proportions than older birth cohorts (0.010

Understanding patient accumulation of comorbidities can facilitate healthcare strategy and personalized preventative care. We applied a directed network graph to electronic health record (EHR) data and characterized comorbidities in a cohort of healthy veterans undergoing screening colonoscopy. The Veterans Affairs Cooperative Studies Program #380 was a prospective longitudinal study of screening and surveillance colonoscopy. We identified initial instances of three-digit ICD-9 diagnoses for participants with at least 5 years of linked EHR history (October 1999 to December 2015). For diagnoses affecting at least 10% of patients, we calculated pairwise chronological relative risk (RR). iGraph was used to produce directed graphs of comorbidities with RR > 1, as well as summary statistics, key diseases, and communities. A directed graph based on 2210 patients visualized longitudinal development of comorbidities. Top hub (preceding) diseases included ischemic heart disease, inflammatory and toxic neuropathy, and diabetes. Top authority (subsequent) diagnoses were acute kidney failure and hypertensive chronic kidney failure. Four communities of correlated comorbidities were identified. Close analysis of top hub and authority diagnoses demonstrated known relationships, correlated sequelae, and novel hypotheses. Directed network graphs portray chronologic comorbidity relationships. We identified relationships between comorbid diagnoses in this aging veteran cohort. This may direct healthcare prioritization and personalized care.

Violin is one of the most complex musical instruments to learn. The learning process requires constant training and many hours of exercise and is primarily based on a student–teacher interaction where the latter guides the beginner through verbal instructions, visual demonstrations, and physical guidance. The teacher’s instruction and practice allow the student to learn gradually how to perform the correct gesture autonomously. Unfortunately, these traditional teaching methods require the constant supervision of a teacher and the interpretation of non-real-time feedback provided after the performance. To address these limitations, this work presents a novel interface (Visual Interface for Bowing Evaluation—VIBE) to facilitate student’s progression throughout the learning process, even in the absence of direct teacher intervention. The proposed interface allows two key parameters of bowing movements to be monitored, namely, the angle between the bow and the string (i.e., α angle) and the bow tilt (i.e., β angle), providing real-time visual feedback on how to correctly move the bow. Results collected on 24 beginners (12 exposed to visual feedback, 12 in a control group) showed a positive effect of the real-time visual feedback on the improvement of bow control. Moreover, the subjects exposed to visual feedback judged the latter as useful to correct their movement and clear in terms of the presentation of data. Although the task was rated as harder when performed with the additional feedback, the subjects did not perceive the presence of a violin teacher as essential to interpret the feedback.

Background & aimsColorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality are increasing among persons younger than 50 years old in the United States, but risk factors associated with early-onset CRC (EOCRC) have not been widely studied.MethodsWe conducted a case-control study of US veterans 18 to 49 years old who underwent colonoscopy examinations from 1999 through 2014. EOCRC cases were identified from a national cancer registry; veterans who were free of CRC at their baseline colonoscopy through 3 years of follow-up were identified as controls. We collected data on age, sex, race/ethnicity, body weight, body mass index (BMI), diabetes, smoking status, and aspirin use. Multivariate-adjusted EOCRC odds were estimated for each factor, with corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) values.ResultsOur final analysis included 651 EOCRC cases and 67,416 controls. Median age was 45.3 years, and 82.3% were male. Higher proportions of cases were older, male, current smokers, nonaspirin users, and had lower BMIs, compared with controls (P < .05). In adjusted analyses, increasing age and male sex were significantly associated with increased risk of EOCRC, whereas aspirin use and being overweight or obese (relative to normal BMI) were significantly associated with decreased odds of EOCRC. In post hoc analyses, weight loss of 5 kg or more within the 5-year period preceding colonoscopy was associated with higher odds of EOCRC (odds ratio 2.23; 95% CI 1.76-2.83).ConclusionsIn a case-control study of veterans, we found increasing age and male sex to be significantly associated with increased risk of EOCRC, and aspirin use to be significantly associated with decreased risk; these factors also affect risk for CRC onset after age 50. Weight loss may be an early clinical sign of EOCRC. More intense efforts are required to identify the factors that cause EOCRC and signs that can be used to identify individuals at highest risk.

The NCCN Guidelines for Colorectal Cancer (CRC) Screening describe various colorectal screening modalities as well as recommended screening schedules for patients at average or increased risk of developing sporadic CRC. They are intended to aid physicians with clinical decision-making regarding CRC screening for patients without defined genetic syndromes. These NCCN Guidelines Insights focus on select recent updates to the NCCN Guidelines, including a section on primary and secondary CRC prevention, and provide context for the panel's recommendations regarding the age to initiate screening in average risk individuals and follow-up for low-risk adenomas.

BackgroundColorectal cancer is the fourth most commonly diagnosed cancer in the United States. Approximately 3-10% of the population has an increased risk for colorectal cancer due to family history and warrants more frequent or intensive screening. Yet,

Abstract The detection of cause-effect relationships from the analysis of paleoclimatic records is a crucial step to disentangle the main mechanisms at work in the climate system. Here, we show that the approach based on the generalized Fluctuation–Dissipation Relation, complemented by the analysis of the Transfer Entropy, allows the causal links to be identified between temperature, CO $$_2$$ 2 concentration and astronomical forcing during the glacial cycles of the last 800 kyr based on Antarctic ice core records. When considering the whole spectrum of time scales, the results of the analysis suggest that temperature drives CO $$_2$$ 2 concentration, or that are both driven by the common astronomical forcing. However, considering only millennial-scale fluctuations, the results reveal the presence of more complex causal links, indicating that CO $$_2$$ 2 variations contribute to driving the changes of temperature on such time scales. The results also evidence a slow temporal variability in the strength of the millennial-scale causal links between temperature and CO $$_2$$ 2 concentration.

For more than five decades, research has been conducted at Ny-Ålesund, in Svalbard, Norway, to understand the structure and functioning of High-Arctic ecosystems and the profound impacts on them of environmental change. Terrestrial, freshwater, glacial and marine ecosystems are accessible year-round from Ny-Ålesund, providing unique opportunities for interdisciplinary observational and experimental studies along physical, chemical, hydrological and climatic gradients. Here, we synthesize terrestrial and freshwater research at Ny-Ålesund and review current knowledge of biodiversity patterns, species population dynamics and interactions, ecosystem processes, biogeochemical cycles and anthropogenic impacts. There is now strong evidence of past and ongoing biotic changes caused by climate change, including negative effects on populations of many taxa and impacts of rain-on-snow events across multiple trophic levels. While species-level characteristics and responses are well understood for macro-organisms, major knowledge gaps exist for microbes, invertebrates and ecosystem-level processes. In order to fill current knowledge gaps, we recommend (1) maintaining monitoring efforts, while establishing a long-term ecosystem-based monitoring programme; (2) gaining a mechanistic understanding of environmental change impacts on processes and linkages in food webs; (3) identifying trophic interactions and cascades across ecosystems; and (4) integrating long-term data on microbial, invertebrate and freshwater communities, along with measurements of carbon and nutrient fluxes among soils, atmosphere, freshwaters and the marine environment. The synthesis here shows that the Ny-Ålesund study system has the characteristics needed to fill these gaps in knowledge, thereby enhancing our understanding of High-Arctic ecosystems and their responses to environmental variability and change.

PurposeCancer ascertainment using large-scale electronic health records is a challenge. Our aim was to propose and apply a structured approach for evaluating multiple candidate approaches for cancer ascertainment using colorectal cancer (CRC) ascertainment within the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) as a use case.MethodsThe proposed approach for evaluating cancer ascertainment strategies includes assessment of individual strategy performance, comparison of agreement across strategies, and review of discordant diagnoses. We applied this approach to compare three strategies for CRC ascertainment within the VA: administrative claims data consisting of International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD9) diagnosis codes; the VA Central Cancer Registry (VACCR); and the newly accessible Oncology Domain, consisting of cases abstracted by local cancer registrars. The study sample consisted of 1,839,043 veterans with index colonoscopy performed from 1999 to 2014. Strategy-specific performance was estimated based on manual record review of 100 candidate CRC cases and 100 colonoscopy controls. Strategies were further compared using Cohen's κ and focused review of discordant CRC diagnoses.ResultsA total of 92,197 individuals met at least one CRC definition. All three strategies had high sensitivity and specificity for incident CRC. However, the ICD9-based strategy demonstrated poor positive predictive value (58%). VACCR and Oncology Domain had almost perfect agreement with each other (κ, 0.87) but only moderate agreement with ICD9-based diagnoses (κ, 0.51 and 0.57, respectively). Among discordant cases reviewed, 15% of ICD9-positive but VACCR- or Oncology Domain-negative cases had incident CRC.ConclusionEvaluating novel strategies for identifying cancer requires a structured approach, including validation against manual record review, agreement among candidate strategies, and focused review of discordant findings. Without careful assessment of ascertainment methods, analyses may be subject to bias and limited in clinical impact.

The spatial and temporal variability of air temperature, precipitation, actual evapotranspiration (AET) and their related water balance components, as well as their responses to anthropogenic climate change, provide fundamental information for an effective management of water resources and for a proactive involvement of users and stakeholders, in order to develop and apply adaptation and mitigation strategies at the local level. In this study, using an interdisciplinary research approach tailored to water management needs, we evaluate the past, present and future quantity of water potentially available for drinking supply in the water catchments feeding the about 2.3 million inhabitants of the Turin metropolitan area (the former Province of Turin, north-western Italy), considering climatologies at the quarterly and yearly timescales. Observed daily maximum surface air temperature and precipitation data from 1959 to 2017 were analysed to assess historical trends, their significance and the possible cross-correlations between the water balance components. Regional climate model (RCM) simulations from a small ensemble were analysed to provide mid-century projections of the difference between precipitation and AET for the area of interest in the future CMIP5 scenarios RCP4.5 (stabilization) and RCP8.5 (business as usual). Temporal and spatial variations in recharge were approximated with variations of drainage. The impact of irrigation, and of snowpack variability, on the latter was also assessed. The other terms of water balance were disregarded because they are affected by higher uncertainty. The analysis over the historical period indicated that the driest area of the study region displayed significant negative annual (and spring) trends of both precipitation and drainage. Results from field experiments were used to model irrigation, and we found that relatively wetter watersheds in the northern and in the southern parts behave differently, with a significant increase of AET due to irrigation. The analysis of future projections suggested almost stationary conditions for annual data. Regarding quarterly data, a slight decrease in summer drainage was found in three out of five models in both emission scenarios. The RCM ensemble exhibits a large spread in the representation of the future drainage trends. The large interannual variability of precipitation was also quantified and identified as a relevant risk factor for water management, expected to play a major role also in future decades.

Non-steady-state closed dynamic accumulation chambers are widely used to measure the respiration of terrestrial ecosystems, thanks to their low cost, low energy consumption and simple transportability, that allow measurements even in hostile and remote environments. However, the assessment of the accuracy and precision associated with the measurement system (independently of possible disturbances due to chamber-soil interactions) is rarely reported. This information is instead necessary for basic quality control, to compare data obtained by different devices and regression models and to provide Confidence Intervals (CIs) on the carbon flux values. This study quantifies the uncertainty associated with emission flux measurements, with a focus on very low fluxes. Calibration tests using different accumulation chambers and CO2 sensors were performed, and fluxes were calculated by means of different models (parametric, non-parametric and flux models). The results of this work show that the linear regression model has the best reproducibility when compared to the other tested models, regardless of the sensor used and the chamber volumes, while the second order polynomial regression has the best accuracy. We remark the importance of building a calibration curve in the range of the expected flux values, with an interval between the lowest and highest imposed flux that should not exceed two orders of magnitude. To evaluate the reproducibility of the measurement, performing replicates for each imposed flux value is essential. We also show that it is necessary to carefully identify the best time interval for interpolating the CO2 concentration curve in order to guarantee reproducibility and accuracy in flux estimates.

The dynamics of carbon dioxide fluxes in the high-altitude Alpine Critical Zone is only partially understood. The complex geomorphology induces significant spatial heterogeneity, and a strong interannual variability is present in the often-extreme climatic and environmental conditions of Alpine ecosystems. To explore the relative importance of the spatial and temporal variability of CO2 fluxes, we analysed a set of in-situ measurements obtained during the summers from 2018 to 2021 in four sampling plots, characterised by soils with different underlying bedrock within the same watershed in the Nivolet plain, in the Gran Paradiso National Park, western Italian Alps. Multi-regression models of CO2 emission and uptake were built using measured meteo-climatic and environmental variables considering either individual years (aggregating over plots) or individual plots (aggregating over years). We observed a significant variability of the model parameters across the different years, while such variability was much smaller across different plots. Significant changes between the different years mainly concerned the temperature dependence of respiration (CO2 emission) and the light dependence of photosynthesis (CO2 uptake). These results suggest that spatial upscaling can be obtained from site measurements, but long-term flux monitoring is required to properly capture the temporal variability at interannual scales.

Societal exposure to large fires has been increasing in recent years. Estimating the expected fire activity a few months in advance would allow reducing environmental and socio-economic impacts through short-term adaptation and response to climate variability and change. However, seasonal prediction of climate-driven fires is still in its infancy. Here, we discuss a strategy for seasonally forecasting burned area anomalies linking seasonal climate predictions with parsimonious empirical climate-fire models using the standardized precipitation index as the climate predictor for burned area. Assuming near-perfect climate predictions, we obtained skilful predictions of fire activity over a substantial portion of the global burnable area (~60%). Using currently available operational seasonal climate predictions, the skill of fire seasonal forecasts remains high and significant in a large fraction of the burnable area (~40%). These findings reveal an untapped and useful burned area predictive ability using seasonal climate forecasts, which can play a crucial role in fire management strategies and minimise the impact of adverse climate conditions.

Abstract Aims Myocardial injury (MI) in coronavirus disease‐19 (COVID‐19) is quite prevalent at admission and affects prognosis. Little is known about troponin trajectories and their prognostic role. We aimed to describe the early in‐hospital evolution of MI and its prognostic impact. Methods and results We performed an analysis from an Italian multicentre study enrolling COVID‐19 patients, hospitalized from 1 March to 9 April 2020. MI was defined as increased troponin level. The first troponin was tested within 24 h from admission, the second one between 24 and 48 h. Elevated troponin was defined as values above the 99th percentile of normal values. Patients were divided in four groups: normal, normal then elevated, elevated then normal, and elevated. The outcome was in‐hospital death. The study population included 197 patients; 41% had normal troponin at both evaluations, 44% had elevated troponin at both assessments, 8% had normal then elevated troponin, and 7% had elevated then normal troponin. During hospitalization, 49 (25%) patients died. Patients with incident MI, with persistent MI, and with MI only at admission had a higher risk of death compared with those with normal troponin at both evaluations (P

The complexity of the clinical picture characterizing neurodevelopmental disorders opens up a vast and heterogeneous field of study in which the sense-perceptual development of autistic subjects represents one of the areas of greatest clinical interest, given that the sense-perceptual dysregulation of autistic pathology affects in a way particularly the expression of intersubjectivity. Much of the neurocognitive and behavioral deficits associated with autistic disorder can, in fact, be explained by an alteration in the sense-perceptive regulation of environmental stimuli that normally allow the individual to relate to his environment, therefore contact with reality and with everything that surrounds it. The developments in neuroscience are configured in the intervention of autism in a multidimensional vision that evaluates the numerous variables that come into play in the production of the behavioral response, in which cognitive, emotional, physiological, relational and psychological aspects are intertwined and inseparable. For this reason it is appropriate that the different intervention models in the field of autism work on several levels to offer an approach that is as integrated as possible, thanks also to the support provided by the new therapeutic horizons represented by the use of technological aids to support of cognitive disability in general. The complexity of autistic pathology therefore requires from the scientific community a strong attention to the integration of different intervention models and clinical tools, in which the development of artificial intelligence can be seen as a precious resource for the treatment of autism: it is focused in particular on the cognitive resources of the subject, capable of mediating the expression of more adequate behavioral responses, in terms of functionality and effectiveness, reducing the relational distance between the autistic child and his / her social network.

Summer fires frequently rage across Mediterranean Europe, often intensified by high temperatures and droughts. According to the state-of-the-art regional fire risk projections, in forthcoming decades climate effects are expected to become stronger and possibly overcome fire prevention efforts. However, significant uncertainties exist and the direct effect of climate change in regulating fuel moisture (e.g. warmer conditions increasing fuel dryness) could be counterbalanced by the indirect effects on fuel structure (e.g. warmer conditions limiting fuel amount), affecting the transition between climate-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes as temperatures increase. Here we analyse and model the impact of coincident drought and antecedent wet conditions (proxy for the climatic factor influencing total fuel and fine fuel structure) on the summer Burned Area (BA) across all eco-regions in Mediterranean Europe. This approach allows BA to be linked to the key drivers of fire in the region. We show a statistically significant relationship between fire and same-summer droughts in most regions, while antecedent climate conditions play a relatively minor role, except in few specific eco-regions. The presented models for individual eco-regions provide insights on the impacts of climate variability on BA, and appear to be promising for developing a seasonal forecast system supporting fire management strategies.

Abstract Novel platelet and megakaryocyte transcriptome analysis allows prediction of the full or theoretical proteome of a representative human platelet. Here, we integrated the established platelet proteomes from six cohorts of healthy subjects, encompassing 5.2 k proteins, with two novel genome-wide transcriptomes (57.8 k mRNAs). For 14.8 k protein-coding transcripts, we assigned the proteins to 21 UniProt-based classes, based on their preferential intracellular localization and presumed function. This classified transcriptome-proteome profile of platelets revealed: (i) Absence of 37.2 k genome-wide transcripts. (ii) High quantitative similarity of platelet and megakaryocyte transcriptomes (R = 0.75) for 14.8 k protein-coding genes, but not for 3.8 k RNA genes or 1.9 k pseudogenes (R = 0.43–0.54), suggesting redistribution of mRNAs upon platelet shedding from megakaryocytes. (iii) Copy numbers of 3.5 k proteins that were restricted in size by the corresponding transcript levels (iv) Near complete coverage of identified proteins in the relevant transcriptome (log2fpkm > 0.20) except for plasma-derived secretory proteins, pointing to adhesion and uptake of such proteins. (v) Underrepresentation in the identified proteome of nuclear-related, membrane and signaling proteins, as well proteins with low-level transcripts. We then constructed a prediction model, based on protein function, transcript level and (peri)nuclear localization, and calculated the achievable proteome at ~ 10 k proteins. Model validation identified 1.0 k additional proteins in the predicted classes. Network and database analysis revealed the presence of 2.4 k proteins with a possible role in thrombosis and hemostasis, and 138 proteins linked to platelet-related disorders. This genome-wide platelet transcriptome and (non)identified proteome database thus provides a scaffold for discovering the roles of unknown platelet proteins in health and disease.