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Abstract Volcanic seamount chains on the flanks of mid‐ocean ridges record variability in magmatic processes associated with mantle melting over several millions of years. However, the relative timing of magmatism on individual seamounts along a chain can be difficult to estimate without in situ sampling and is further hampered by Ar40/Ar39 dating limitations. The 8°20’N seamount chain extends ∼170 km west from the fast‐spreading East Pacific Rise (EPR), north of and parallel to the western Siqueiros fracture zone. Here, we use multibeam bathymetric data to investigate relationships between abyssal hill formation and seamount volcanism, transform fault slip, and tectonic rotation. Near‐bottom compressed high‐intensity radiated pulse, bathymetric, and sidescan sonar data collected with the autonomous underwater vehicle Sentry are used to test the hypothesis that seamount volcanism is age‐progressive along the seamount chain. Although sediment on seamount flanks is likely to be reworked by gravitational mass‐wasting and current activity, bathymetric relief and Sentry vehicle heading analysis suggest that sedimentary accumulations on seamount summits are likely to be relatively pristine. Sediment thickness on the seamounts' summits does not increase linearly with nominal crustal age, as would be predicted if seamounts were constructed proximal to the EPR axis and then aged as the lithosphere cooled and subsided away from the ridge. The thickest sediments are found at the center of the chain, implying the most ancient volcanism there, rather than on seamounts furthest from the EPR. The nonlinear sediment thickness along the 8°20’N seamounts suggests that volcanism can persist off‐axis for several million years.

Monitoring the activity of subglacial volcanoes along the Aleutian Arc in Alaska is important to the safety of local populations, as well as air traffic flying through the region. However, observations of volcanic unrest are limited by accessibility and resources, particularly at glacier-covered systems, making investigations of their stability challenging. Westdahl Peak, a subglacial volcano on Unimak Island in the Aleutian Arc has experienced significant unrest and uplift since its most recent VEI three eruption in 1991-1992. Given the magnitude of observed uplift, previous investigations suggested the potential for eruption by 2010, but no such event has occurred. One hypothesis to explain this prolonged unrest is that the 1-km thick glacier may increase the stability of the magma system. However, the impact of ice caps and glaciers on the short-term stability of volcanoes is not well understood. In this study, thermomechanical finite element models are used to evaluate how the stability of a glaciated volcano is impacted by variations in ice cap thickness, magma chamber depth, geometry, magma flux rate, and seasonal changes in ice cover thickness. Our numerical experiments indicate that the presence of an ice cap (1–3 km thick) increases the average repose interval for a magma system. Among models with different magma chamber geometries, depths, and flux rates, the greatest increases in repose interval are observed in prolate systems where the increase is up to 57% for a chamber located at 5 km-depth. Spherical and oblate also experience smaller, yet significant, increases in repose interval. Additionally, the percentage increase in repose interval is not impacted by variations in magma flux rate for a given ice cap thickness and magma chamber geometry. However, flux rates do influence the timing of eruptions when the system is experiencing seasonal variations in ice thickness. Our results show that systems with low flux rates are more likely to fail when the ice thickness is at its lowest. The numerical estimates further suggest that the ice cap on Westdahl Peak, which is ∼1 km, may slightly increase the stability of the magma system. In general, given flux rates and magma chamber geometries estimated for the Westdahl system, the repose interval can increase by ∼7 years due to the Westdahl glacier. This increase is small on a geologic scale but is significant on human time scales and the impact of glaciers must be considered in future forecasting efforts.

Quantifying the eruption potential of a restless volcano requires the ability to model parameters such as overpressure and calculate the host rock stress state as the system evolves. A critical challenge is developing a model-data fusion framework to take advantage of observational data and provide updates of the volcanic system through time. The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) uses a Monte Carlo approach to assimilate volcanic monitoring data and update models of volcanic unrest, providing time-varying estimates of overpressure and stress. Although the EnKF has been proven effective to forecast volcanic deformation using synthetic InSAR and GPS data, until now, it has not been applied to assimilate data from an active volcanic system. In this investigation, the EnKF is used to provide a “hindcast” of the 2009 explosive eruption of Kerinci volcano, Indonesia. A two-sources analytical model is used to simulate the surface deformation of Kerinci volcano observed by InSAR time-series data and to predict the system evolution. A deep, deflating dike-like source reproduces the subsiding signal on the flanks of the volcano, and a shallow spherical McTigue source reproduces the central uplift. EnKF predicted parameters are used in finite element models to calculate the host-rock stress state prior to the 2009 eruption. Mohr-Coulomb failure models reveal that the host rock around the shallow magma reservoir is trending toward tensile failure prior to 2009, which may be the catalyst for the 2009 eruption. Our results illustrate that the EnKF shows significant promise for future applications to forecasting the eruption potential of restless volcanoes and hind-cast the triggering mechanisms of observed eruptions.

It is widely accepted that plate divergence at mid-ocean ridges drives mantle flow, mantle melting, and the formation of new oceanic crust. However, many of the details of this process remain obscure because of the inaccessibility of the mantle to direct observation. Thus, geodynamic models are needed to provide insight into the processes that control the formation of new crust and hydrothermal circulation at mid-ocean ridges. These models allow us to test governing parameters and investigate physical hypotheses and conceptual models derived from geological, geophysical, and geochemical observations. During the span of the Ridge 2000 Program, a new generation of models was developed to calculate the width of the melt region and the extent of melting beneath mid-ocean ridges, track the pathways along which melts may migrate, and predict melt and residual mantle compositions as the system evolves. Findings from these studies illustrate the importance of melt focusing for the efficient delivery of melt to the ridge axis, the complexities of migrating melt in the vicinity of ridge offsets, and the effect of mantle rheology in model calculations.