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Since January 2009, two long-range high-frequency (HF) radar systems have been collecting hourly high-spatial-resolution surface current data in the southeastern corner of the Bay of Biscay. The temporal resolution of the HF radar surface currents permits simulating drifter trajectories with the same time step as that of real drifters deployed in the region in 2009. The main goal of this work is to compare real drifter trajectories with trajectories computed from HF radar currents obtained using different methods, including forecast currents. Open-boundary modal analysis (OMA) is applied to the radar radial velocities and then a linear autoregressive model on the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition of an historical data series is used to forecast OMA currents. Additionally, the accuracy of the forecast method in terms of the spatial and temporal distribution of the Lagrangian distances between observations and forecasts is investigated for a 4-yr period (2009-12). The skills of the different HF radar products are evaluated within a 48-h window. The mean distances between real trajectories and their radar-derived counterparts range from 4 to 5 km for real-time and forecast currents after 12 hours of simulations. The forecast model improves persistence (i.e., the simulations obtained by using the last available OMA fields as a constant variable) after 6 hours of simulation and improves the estimation of trajectories up to 28% after 48 hours. The performance of the forecast is observed to be variable in space and time, related to the different ocean processes governing the local ocean circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A unique spatiotemporal perspective of evolving surface currents off the northern California coast is provided with Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs) determined from attracting Finite-Time Lyapunov Exponents (FTLEs). The FTLEs are calculated from hourly 2-D surface current velocities obtained with HF radars. Attracting FTLE field maxima can identify confluence and shear in flows which can be useful in mapping dynamics associated with fronts. FTLE and SST fields are compared during three time periods in 2009: late March, early September, and late September. During strong upwelling-favorable winds in late March the FTLE and SST fields were not strongly related indicating that frontal dynamics were not strongly influencing surface circulation. Exceptions to this occurred when FTLE ridges calculated from a shorter integration period captured the evolution of a cold water filament and when a FTLE ridge migrated offshore along with an upwelling front. During the two September cases an improved relationship between the FTLE and SST fields was found although occasionally they became shifted. The shifts occurred when the FTLE integration period spanned backwards in time through periods of relaxed and upwelling-favorable winds. This suggests that frontal dynamics captured by LCSs during relaxed winds can subsequently become advected after the onset of wind-forcing by a surface mixed layer decoupled from stably stratified water below the surface mixed layer. Additionally, the LCSs were found to be useful in mapping the origin and destination of surface trajectories, the confluence associated with a persistent eddy-like feature, and retention zones off coastal promontories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Observations from disparate observational assets, including tide gauges, moorings, and high-frequency (HF) radars, were used to depict the tidal variability, and to evaluate model tidal simulations, for a region off central California, including the Monterey Bay. For this study, the hydrodynamic model was forced only with tides derived from a large-scale model for the northeast Pacific Ocean. Homogeneous density, and initially horizontally uniform density stratification, cases were considered. The model successfully reproduced tidal sea-surface height variations within the model domain, as determined by comparisons with sea level or bottom pressure measured at six locations. To achieve tidal currents with realistic amplitudes, as determined from HF radar and moored measurements, it was found that barotropic velocity, as well as sea level, from the large-scale regional tidal model must be included in specifying the open-boundary condition. However, even with such forcing, the model with homogeneous density field under-predicted the semidiurnal and diurnal barotropic currents as estimated from depth-averaged currents measured at 11 locations. In the diurnal frequency band, the observed surface and nearshore depth-averaged currents are likely influenced by meteorological forcing, which was not included in the model. The HF radar-measured surface tidal currents, both semidiurnal and diurnal, are consistent from year to year and between the winter season and the entire year. Semidiurnal surface tidal currents derived from year-long HF radar measurements do not resemble either the modeled or measured barotropic current fields. Rather, they exhibit amplitudes and small-scale spatial variability indicative of the presence of internal tides, thus indicating that model-derived barotropic tidal currents cannot be validated over large spatial extents using long time series of HF radar-derived surface currents. With initially horizontally uniform vertical density stratification, the model produced surface currents with spatial variability and amplitude range comparable to what was derived from HF radar surface current measurements, but the point by point comparisons are not impressive for this region of complex topography. Likewise, the subsurface current comparisons, performed at four deepwater locations, show considerable model-data differences. Possible reasons for these disparities include the effects of atmospheric forcing, spatially and temporally varying stratification, remotely generated coastally trapped waves, and remotely generated internal tides. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The development and implementation of a real-time ocean forecast system based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) off the coast of central California are described. The ROMS configuration consists of three nested modeling domains with increasing spatial resolutions: the US West coastal ocean at 15-km resolution, the central California coastal ocean at 5km, and the Monterey Bay region at 1.5km. All three nested models have 32 vertical sigma (or terrain-following) layers and were integrated in conjunction with a three-dimensional variational data assimilation algorithm (3DVAR) to produce snapshots of the ocean state every 6h (the reanalysis) and 48-h forecasts once a day. This ROMS forecast system was operated in real time during the field experiment known as the Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network (AOSN-II) in August 2003. After the field experiment, a number of improvements were made to the ROMS forecast system: more data were added in the reanalysis with more careful quality control procedures, improvements were made in the data assimilation scheme, as well as model surface and side boundary conditions. The results from the ROMS reanalysis are presented here. The ROMS reanalysis is first compared with the assimilated data as a consistency check. An evaluation of the ROMS reanalysis against the independent measurements that are not assimilated into the model is then presented. This evaluation shows the mean differences in temperature and salinity between reanalysis and observations to be less than 1°C and 0.2psu (practical salinity unit), respectively, with root-mean-square (RMS) differences of less than 1.5°C and 0.25psu. Qualitative agreement is found between independent current measurements and the ROMS reanalysis. The agreement is particularly good for the vertically integrated current along the offshore glider tracks: the ROMS reanalysis can realistically reproduce the poleward California Undercurrent. Reasonably good agreement is found in the spatial patterns of the surface current as measured by high-frequency (HF) radars. Preliminary results concerning the ROMS forecast skill and predictability are also presented. Future plans to improve the ROMS forecast system with a particular focus on assimilation of HF radar current measurements are discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]