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When a non-native species succeeds in establishing in a new habitat, one of the possible responses is to attempt its eradication. In the present study, we analysed European eradication programmes against non-native pests and pathogens of woody plants (PPWP) from 1945 to date. Our main goal was to identify which factors affect the success of an eradication programme, reinforcing guidelines for future eradication of PPWP. Data on eradication campaigns were obtained from online databases, scientific and grey literature, and Plant Protection Organizations’ reports. Factors influencing eradication success for both arthropods and pathogens were analysed with LASSO regression and decision tree learning. A total of 848 cases officially declared as eradication attempts were documented in our database (8-fold higher than previous reports). Both the number of programmes and their rate of success increased sharply over the last two decades. Only less than 10% of the non-native organisms affecting woody plants were targeted for attempted eradication despite the high economic and ecological impacts caused by some species for which no efforts were undertaken. Almost one-third of the officially declared cases of eradication concerned organisms that were still restricted to the material with which they were introduced. For these cases the success rate was 100%. The success rate of established species was only 50% for arthropods and 61% for pathogens. The spatial extent of the outbreak was the factor that most affected the outcome of eradication campaigns. The eradication success decreased abruptly above 100 ha for arthropods and 10 ha for pathogens. Additionally, other variables were shown to influence the outcome of eradication programmes, in particular the type of environment, with the highest eradication success rate found in nurseries and glasshouses, with successful outcomes increasing if quarantine measures were applied and when monitoring included asymptomatic plants. Particular species traits may reduce eradication success: parthenogenetic arthropods, saprotrophic pathogens, wind dispersal, the possibility to remain asymptomatic indefinitely, and the existence of resting spores or stages. In conclusion, small affected areas, quick response, and efficient implementation of quarantine restrictions, together with particular species traits, may allow a high probability of eradication success. Preparedness at the country and European level would allow a larger number of target species to be included in future eradication programmes.

The sooty bark disease (SBD) is an emerging disease affecting sycamore maple trees (Acer pseudoplatanus) in Europe. Cryptostroma corticale, the causal agent, putatively native to eastern North America, can be also pathogenic for humans causing pneumonitis. It was first detected in 1945 in Europe, with markedly increasing reports since 2000. Pathogen development appears to be linked to heat waves and drought episodes. Here, we analyse the conditions of the SBD emergence in Europe based on a three-decadal time-series data set. We also assess the suitability of aerobiological samples using a species-specific quantitative PCR assay to inform the epidemiology of C. corticale, through a regional study in France comparing two-year aerobiological and epidemiological data, and a continental study including 12 air samplers from six countries (Czechia, France, Italy, Portugal, Sweden and Switzerland). We found that an accumulated water deficit in spring and summer lower than -132 mm correlates with SBD outbreaks. Our results suggest that C. corticale is an efficient airborne pathogen which can disperse its conidia as far as 310 km from the site of the closest disease outbreak. Aerobiology of C. corticale followed the SBD distribution in Europe. Pathogen detection was high in countries within the host native area and with longer disease presence, such as France, Switzerland and Czech Republic, and sporadic in Italy, where the pathogen was reported just once. The pathogen was absent in samples from Portugal and Sweden, where the disease has not been reported yet. We conclude that aerobiological surveillance can inform the spatial distribution of the SBD, and contribute to early detection in pathogen-free countries.

The selection of drought-tolerant genotypes is globally recognized as an effective strategy to maintain the growth and survival of commercial tree species exposed to future drought periods. New genomic selection tools that reduce the time of progeny trials are required to substitute traditional tree breeding programs. We investigated the genetic variation of water stress tolerance in New Zealand-grown Pinus radiata D. Don using 622 commercially-used genotypes from 63 families. We used quantitative pedigree-based (Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction or ABLUP) and genomic-based (Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction or GBLUP) approaches to examine the heritability estimates associated with water stress tolerance in P. radiata. Tree seedling growth traits, foliar carbon isotope composition (δ13C), and dark-adapted chlorophyll fluorescence (Y) were monitored before, during and after 10 months of water stress. Height growth showed a constant and moderate heritability level, while the heritability estimate for diameter growth and δ13C decreased with water stress. In contrast, chlorophyll fluorescence exhibited low heritability after 5 and 10 months of water stress. The GBLUP approach provided less breeding value accuracy than ABLUP, however, the relative selection efficiency of GBLUP was greater compared with ABLUP selection techniques. Although there was no significant relationship directly between δ13C and Y, the genetic correlations were significant and stronger for GBLUP. The positive genetic correlations between δ13C and tree biomass traits under water stress indicated that intraspecific variation in δ13C was likely driven by differences in the genotype’s photosynthetic capacity. The results show that foliar δ13C can predict P. radiata genotype tolerance to water stress using ABLUP and GBLUP approaches and that such approaches can provide a faster screening and selection of drought-tolerant genotypes for forestry breeding programs.

Understanding the epidemiology of infectious diseases in a host population is a major challenge in forestry. Radiata pine plantations in New Zealand are impacted by a foliar disease, red needle cast (RNC), caused by Phytophthora pluvialis. This pathogen is dispersed by water splash with polycyclic infection affecting the lower part of the tree canopy. In this study, we extended an SI (Susceptible-Infectious) model presented for RNC to analyse the key epidemiological drivers. We conducted two experiments to empirically fit the extended model: a detached-needle assay and an in vivo inoculation. We used the detached-needle assay data to compare resistant and susceptible genotypes, and the in vivo inoculation data was used to inform sustained infection of the whole plant. We also compared isolations and real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) to assess P. pluvialis infection. The primary infection rate and the incubation time were similar for susceptible and resistant genotypes. The pathogen death rate was 2.5 times higher for resistant than susceptible genotypes. Further, external proliferation of mycelium and sporangia were only observed on 28% of the resistant ramets compared to 90% of the susceptible ones. Detection methods were the single most important factor influencing parameter estimates of the model, giving qualitatively different epidemic outputs. In the early stages of infection, qPCR proved to be more efficient than isolations but the reverse was true at later points in time. Isolations were not influenced by the presence of lesions in the needles, while 19% of lesioned needle maximized qPCR detection. A primary infection peak identified via qPCR occurred at 4 days after inoculation (dai) with a secondary peak observed 22 dai. Our results have important implications to the management of RNC, by highlighting the main differences in the response of susceptible and resistant genotypes, and comparing the most common assessment methods to detect RNC epidemics.