Search

Background Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a leading cause of death and disability. A reliable prediction of outcome on admission is of great clinical relevance. We aimed to develop prognostic models with readily available traditional and novel predictors. Methods and Findings Prospectively collected individual patient data were analyzed from 11 studies. We considered predictors available at admission in logistic regression models to predict mortality and unfavorable outcome according to the Glasgow Outcome Scale at 6 mo after injury. Prognostic models were developed in 8,509 patients with severe or moderate TBI, with cross-validation by omission of each of the 11 studies in turn. External validation was on 6,681 patients from the recent Medical Research Council Corticosteroid Randomisation after Significant Head Injury (MRC CRASH) trial. We found that the strongest predictors of outcome were age, motor score, pupillary reactivity, and CT characteristics, including the presence of traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage. A prognostic model that combined age, motor score, and pupillary reactivity had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) between 0.66 and 0.84 at cross-validation. This performance could be improved (AUC increased by approximately 0.05) by considering CT characteristics, secondary insults (hypotension and hypoxia), and laboratory parameters (glucose and hemoglobin). External validation confirmed that the discriminative ability of the model was adequate (AUC 0.80). Outcomes were systematically worse than predicted, but less so in 1,588 patients who were from high-income countries in the CRASH trial. Conclusions Prognostic models using baseline characteristics provide adequate discrimination between patients with good and poor 6 mo outcomes after TBI, especially if CT and laboratory findings are considered in addition to traditional predictors. The model predictions may support clinical practice and research, including the design and analysis of randomized controlled trials. The editor's Summary of this article follows the references/, Introduction Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a leading cause of death and disability. Establishing a reliable prognosis early after injury is notoriously difficult, as is captured in the Hippocratic aphorism, [...]

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a leading cause of death and disability. A reliable prediction of outcome on admission is of great clinical relevance. We aimed to develop prognostic models with readily available traditional and novel predictors.Prospectively collected individual patient data were analyzed from 11 studies. We considered predictors available at admission in logistic regression models to predict mortality and unfavorable outcome according to the Glasgow Outcome Scale at 6 mo after injury. Prognostic models were developed in 8,509 patients with severe or moderate TBI, with cross-validation by omission of each of the 11 studies in turn. External validation was on 6,681 patients from the recent Medical Research Council Corticosteroid Randomisation after Significant Head Injury (MRC CRASH) trial. We found that the strongest predictors of outcome were age, motor score, pupillary reactivity, and CT characteristics, including the presence of traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage. A prognostic model that combined age, motor score, and pupillary reactivity had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) between 0.66 and 0.84 at cross-validation. This performance could be improved (AUC increased by approximately 0.05) by considering CT characteristics, secondary insults (hypotension and hypoxia), and laboratory parameters (glucose and hemoglobin). External validation confirmed that the discriminative ability of the model was adequate (AUC 0.80). Outcomes were systematically worse than predicted, but less so in 1,588 patients who were from high-income countries in the CRASH trial.Prognostic models using baseline characteristics provide adequate discrimination between patients with good and poor 6 mo outcomes after TBI, especially if CT and laboratory findings are considered in addition to traditional predictors. The model predictions may support clinical practice and research, including the design and analysis of randomized controlled trials.

Analysis of the time course of edema resolution by the brain vasculature and from brain to cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) reveals that the majority of radioiodinated cat serum albumin (RICSA) clearance occurs through CSF pathways. The critical stage of resolution exhibits minimum vascular clearance. Processes required for clearance of RICSA from the extracellular space remain active during the acute stage of edema resolution.

Patients suffering from severe head injury may fall into a persistent vegetative state or PVS. While the eyes of PVS patients may open and might even follow objects around the room, PVS patients make no adaptive responses to their surroundings. They make no purposeful movements and can not obey any commands. It is generally difficult, if not impossible, to predict the outcome of a PVS case. Some patients die, some remain vegetative, and others recover. It should be emphasized, however, that recovery in this context means only regaining consciousness; the 'recovered' patients remain severely impaired and only a minority recover any ability to communicate. A review of case records was conducted to estimate the likelihood of recovery of such patients and to determine which factors, if any, might provide insight into the prognosis for an individual PVS patient. Of 650 patients with closed-head injuries (that is, without penetrating wounds), 93 patients were discharged to rehabilitation hospital in a vegetative state. Follow-up data could be obtained on 84 of these patients. Within 6 months, 41 percent of the patients regained consciousness and, by the end of one year, 52 percent had become conscious. Of the 84 patients, 58 percent regained consciousness during the three-year study period. These observations clearly indicate that the majority of recoveries occur within the first six months. Furthermore, if recovery has not occurred within the first year, the chances of recovering fall to about one in eight. A tabulation of the findings of the present patients failed to reveal any significant factor to distinguish the patients who recovered from those who failed to regain consciousness. During the period of the study, 20 of the 84 patients died, and it was possible to identify factors that distinguished these patients. The most important among these was the presence of a mass lesion that had been evacuated (drained). For example, a head injury often produces a hemorrhage; a pool of blood, called a hematoma, may collect and put pressure on the brain. Such a lesion was present in half the patients who died, but in only one-quarter of the patients who survived. (Consumer Summary produced by Reliance Medical Information, Inc.)

AbstractAlthough secondary insults of hypoxia and hypotension (HH) are generally considered to cause fulminant brain edema in traumatic brain injury (TBI), the combined effect of TBI with HH on brain edema and specifically the expression of aquaporin-4 (AQP4) have not been fully elucidated. The goal of this study was to document the effect of secondary insults on brain water, AQP4 expression, electrolytes, and blood–brain barrier (BBB) permeability during the acute stage of edema development. We measured brain water content and electrolytes (series 1); BBB permeability based on Evans blue (EB) dye extravasation (series 2); and AQP4 expression using immunoblotting (series 3) at 1 h and 5 h following cortical contusion injury (CCI). Secondary insults significantly worsened BBB function at 5 h post injury. Moreover, a significant reduction of upregulation on AQP4 expression was observed in trauma, coupled with a mild secondary insult of hypoxia hypotension. These findings indicate that a secondary insult following CCI at 5 h post injury worsens brain edema, disrupts ionic homeostasis, and blunts the normal upregulation of AQP4 that occurs after trauma, suggesting that the blunting of AQP4 may contribute to the detrimental effects of secondary insults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a major health and socio-economic problem throughout the world. Many randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have been performed to investigate the effectiveness of new therapies, but none have convincingly demonstrated benefit. Clinical trials in TBI pose complex methodological challenges and meeting these requires new approaches. The challenges are related to the heterogeneity of head injuries, to optimum analysis of outcome and to aspects of the design of trials. To address these, we have created the IMPACT database on TBI through merging individual patient data from eight RCTs and three observational surveys. This database forms a culture medium in which innovative approaches to improving trial design and analysis are being explored. We hypothesize that the statistical power of TBI trials may be increased by adjusting for heterogeneity with covariate adjustment andor prognostic targeting, by exploiting the ordinal nature of the Glasgow Outcome Scale and by relating the outcome obtained in individual patients to their baseline prognostic risk. Extensive prognostic analysis was required as a first step towards our aim of optimizing the chance of demonstrating benefit of new therapies in future trials. The fruits of this analysis are reported in detail in the subsequent reports in this issue of the Journal of Neurotrauma. The results will lead to the development and validation of new prognostic models, which will be applied to deal with heterogeneity. The findings will be synthesized into recommendations for the design and analysis of future RCTs, with the expectation of increasing the likelihood of demonstrating the benefit of a truly effective new therapy or therapeutic agent in victims of a head injury. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this report is to describe the design and content of the International Mission for Prognosis And Clinical Trial (IMPACT) database of traumatic brain injury which contains the complete dataset from most clinical trials and organized epidemiologic studies conducted over the past 20 years. This effort, funded by the U.S. National Institutes of Health, has led to the accumulation thus far of data from 9205 patients with severe and moderate brain injuries from eight randomized placebo controlled trials and three observational studies. Data relevant to the design and analysis of pragmatic Phase III clinical trials, including pre-hospital, admission, and post-resuscitation assessments, information on the acute management, and short-and long-term outcome were merged into a top priority data set (TPDS). The major emphasis during the first phase of study is on information from time of injury to post-resuscitation and outcome at 6 months thereby providing a unique resource for prognostic analysis and for studies aimed at optimizing the design and analysis of Phase III trials in traumatic brain injury. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We studied the prognostic strength of the individual components of the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and pupil reactivity to Glasgow Outcome Score (GOS) at 6 months post-injury. A total of 8721 moderate or severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) patient data from the IMPACT database on traumatic brain injury comprised the study cohort. The associations between motor score and pupil reactivity and 6-month GOS were analyzed by binary logistic regression and proportional odds methodology. The strength of prognostic effects were expressed as the unadjusted odds ratios presented for all individual studies as well as in meta-analysis. We found a consistent strong association between motor score and 6-month GOS across all studies (OR 1.74–7.48). The Eye and Verbal components were also strongly associated with GOS. In the pooled population, one or both un-reactive pupils and lower motor scores were significantly associated with unfavorable outcome (range 2.71–7.31). We also found a significant change in motor score from pre-hospital direct to study hospital enrollment ( p< 0.0001) and from the first in-hospital to study enrollment scores (p < 0.0001). Pupil reactivity was more robust between these time points. It is recommended that the study hospital enrollment GCS and pupil reactivity be used for prognostic analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]