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Early and accurate diagnosis of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) and tailored therapeutic interventions can improve prognosis. ADOS-2 is a standardized test for ASD diagnosis. However, owing to ASD heterogeneity, the presence of false positives remains a challenge for clinicians. In this study, retrospective data from patients with ASD and multi-systemic developmental disorder (MSDD), a term used to describe children under the age of 3 with impaired communication but with strong emotional attachments, were tested by machine learning (ML) models to assess the best predictors of disease development as well as the items that best describe these two autism spectrum disorder presentations. Maternal and infant data as well as ADOS-2 score were included in different ML testing models. Depending on the outcome to be estimated, a best-performing model was selected. RIDGE regression model showed that the best predictors for ADOS social affect score were gut disturbances, EEG retrievals, and sleep problems. Linear Regression Model showed that term pregnancy, psychomotor development status, and gut disturbances were predicting at best for the ADOS Repetitive and Restricted Behavior score. The LASSO regression model showed that EEG retrievals, sleep disturbances, age at diagnosis, term pregnancy, weight at birth, gut disturbances, and neurological findings were the best predictors for the overall ADOS score. The CART classification and regression model showed that age at diagnosis and weight at birth best discriminate between ASD and MSDD.

Abstract Background Children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) display impressive clinical heterogeneity, also involving treatment response. Genetic variants can contribute to explain this large interindividual phenotypic variability. Methods Array‐CGH (a‐CGH) and whole genome sequencing (WGS) were performed on a multiplex family with two small children diagnosed with ASD at 17 and 18 months of age. Both brothers received the same naturalistic intervention for one year according to the Early Start Denver Model (ESDM), applied by the same therapists, yielding dramatically different treatment outcomes. Results The older sibling came out of the autism spectrum, while the younger sibling displayed very little, in any, improvement. This boy was subsequently treated applying a structured Early Intensive Behavioral Intervention paired with Augmentative Alternative Communication, which yielded a partial response within another year. The ESDM nonresponsive child carries a novel maternally inherited 65 Kb deletion at chr. 13q32.2 spanning FARP1. Farp1 is a synaptic scaffolding protein, which plays a significant role in neural plasticity. Conclusion These results represent a paradigmatic example of the heuristic potential of genetic markers in predicting treatment response and possibly in supporting the targeted prescription of specific early intervention approaches.