Charlotte Costentin, Federico Piñero, Helena Degroote, Andrea Notarpaolo, Ilka F. Boin, Karim Boudjema, Cinzia Baccaro, Luis G. Podestá, Philippe Bachellier, Giuseppe Maria Ettorre, Jaime Poniachik, Fabrice Muscari, Fabrizio Dibenedetto, Sergio Hoyos Duque, Ephrem Salame, Umberto Cillo, Sebastian Marciano, Claire Vanlemmens, Stefano Fagiuoli, Patrizia Burra, Hans Van Vlierberghe, Daniel Cherqui, Quirino Lai, Marcelo Silva, Fernando Rubinstein, Christophe Duvoux, Filomena Conti, Olivier Scatton, Pierre Henri Bernard, Claire Francoz, Francois Durand, Sébastien Dharancy, Marie-lorraine Woehl, Alexis Laurent, Sylvie Radenne, Jérôme Dumortier, Armand Abergel, Louise Barbier, Pauline Houssel-Debry, Georges Philippe Pageaux, Laurence Chiche, Victor Deledinghen, Jean Hardwigsen, J. Gugenheim, M. Altieri, Marie Noelle Hilleret, Thomas Decaens, Aline Chagas, Paulo Costa, Elaine Cristina de Ataide, Emilio Quiñones, Sebastián Marciano, Margarita Anders, Adriana Varón, Alina Zerega, Alejandro Soza, Martín Padilla Machaca, Diego Arufe, Josemaría Menéndez, Rodrigo Zapata, Mario Vilatoba, Linda Muñoz, Ricardo Chong Menéndez, Martín Maraschio, Lucas McCormack, Juan Mattera, Adrian Gadano, Ilka S.F. Fatima Boin, Jose Huygens Parente García, Flair Carrilho, Giulia Magini, Lucia Miglioresi, Martina Gambato, Fabrizio Di Benedetto, Cecilia D’Ambrosio, Alessandro Vitale, Michele Colledan, Domenico Pinelli, Paolo Magistri, Giovanni Vennarecci, Marco Colasanti, Valerio Giannelli, Adriano Pellicelli, Cizia Baccaro, Callebout Eduard, Iesari Samuele, Dekervel Jeroen, Schreiber Jonas, Pirenne Jacques, Verslype Chris, Ysebaert Dirk, Michielsen Peter, Lucidi Valerio, Moreno Christophe, Detry Olivier, Delwaide Jean, Troisi Roberto, and Lerut Jan Paul
Background & Aims: Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are selected for liver transplantation (LT) based on pre-LT imaging ± alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) level, but discrepancies between pre-LT tumour assessment and explant are frequent. Our aim was to design an explant-based recurrence risk reassessment score to refine prediction of recurrence after LT and provide a framework to guide post-LT management. Methods: Adult patients who underwent transplantation between 2000 and 2018 for HCC in 47 centres were included. A prediction model for recurrence was developed using competing-risk regression analysis in a European training cohort (TC; n = 1,359) and tested in a Latin American validation cohort (VC; n=1,085). Results: In the TC, 76.4% of patients with HCC met the Milan criteria, and 89.9% had an AFP score of ≤2 points. The recurrence risk reassessment (R3)-AFP model was designed based on variables independently associated with recurrence in the TC (with associated weights): ≥4 nodules (sub-distribution of hazard ratio [SHR] = 1.88, 1 point), size of largest nodule (3–6 cm: SHR = 1.83, 1 point; >6 cm: SHR = 5.82, 5 points), presence of microvascular invasion (MVI; SHR = 2.69, 2 points), nuclear grade >II (SHR = 1.20, 1 point), and last pre-LT AFP value (101–1,000 ng/ml: SHR = 1.57, 1 point; >1,000 ng/ml: SHR = 2.83, 2 points). Wolber’s c-index was 0.76 (95% CI 0.72–0.80), significantly superior to an R3 model without AFP (0.75; 95% CI 0.72–0.79; p = 0.01). Four 5-year recurrence risk categories were identified: very low (score = 0; 5.5%), low (1–2 points; 15.1%), high (3–6 points; 39.1%), and very high (>6 points; 73.9%). The R3-AFP score performed well in the VC (Wolber’s c-index of 0.78; 95% CI 0.73–0.83). Conclusions: The R3 score including the last pre-LT AFP value (R3-AFP score) provides a user-friendly, standardised framework to design post-LT surveillance strategies, protocols, or adjuvant therapy trials for HCC not limited to the Milan criteria. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT03775863. Lay summary: Considering discrepancies between pre-LT tumour assessment and explant are frequent, reassessing the risk of recurrence after LT is critical to further refine the management of patients with HCC. In a large and international cohort of patients who underwent transplantation for HCC, we designed and validated the R3-AFP model based on variables independently associated with recurrence post-LT (number of nodules, size of largest nodule, presence of MVI, nuclear grade, and last pre-LT AFP value). The R3-AFP model including last available pre-LT AFP value outperformed the original R3 model only based on explant features. The final R3-AFP scoring system provides a robust framework to design post-LT surveillance strategies, protocols, or adjuvant therapy trials, irrespective of criteria used to select patients with HCC for LT.