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Abstract Background Measles remains a major public health burden worldwide. Parents often hesitate to vaccinate children with chronic diseases. We investigated the association between the percentage of vaccination and chronic diseases and explore hospital infections’ role in the 2017–2019 measles outbreak across northern Vietnam provinces. Methods A total of 2,064 children aged 0–15 years old admitted for measles to the National Children’s Hospital during the outbreak were included in the study. Demographic information, clinical characteristics, vaccination statuses and laboratory examination were extracted from electronic medical records, vaccination records, or interviews with parents when other sources were unavailable. Results The incidence rate that provincial hospitals sent to the National Children’s Hospital was proportional to the population density of their provinces of residence. Early nosocomial transmission of measles was observed before community-acquired cases emerged in many provinces. Among patients aged over 18 months, those with chronic diseases had a proportion of vaccination of 9.4%, lower than patients without chronic diseases at 32.4%. Unvaccinated patients had a higher proportion of hospital-acquired infections with aOR = 2.42 (1.65–3.65), p

Abstract Hypervirulent Klebsiella pneumoniae (hvKp) is a significant cause of severe invasive infections in Vietnam, yet data on its epidemiology, population structure and dynamics are scarce. We screened hvKp isolates from patients with bloodstream infections (BSIs) at a tertiary infectious diseases hospital in Vietnam and healthy individuals, followed by whole genome sequencing and plasmid analysis. Among 700 BSI-causing Kp strains, 100 (14.3%) were hvKp. Thirteen hvKp isolates were identified from 350 rectal swabs of healthy adults; none from 500 rectal swabs of healthy children. The hvKp isolates were genetically diverse, encompassing 17 sequence types (STs), predominantly ST23, ST86 and ST65. Among the 113 hvKp isolates, 14 (12.6%) carried at least one antimicrobial resistance (AMR) gene, largely mediated by IncFII, IncR, and IncA/C plasmids. Notably, the acquisition of AMR conjugative plasmids facilitated horizontal transfer of the non-conjugative virulence plasmid between K. pneumoniae strains. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated hvKp isolates from BSIs and human carriage clustered together, suggesting a significant role of intestinal carriage in hvKp transmission. Enhanced surveillance is crucial to understand the factors driving intestinal carriage and hvKp transmission dynamics for informing preventive measures. Furthermore, we advocate the clinical use of our molecular assay for diagnosing hvKp infections to guide effective management.

Introduction Citizen science (CS) is an emerging approach in public health to harness the collective intelligence of individuals to augment traditional scientific efforts. However, citizens’ viewpoint, especially the hard-to-reach population, is lacking in current outbreak-related literature. We aim to understand the awareness, readiness and feasibility of outbreak-related CS, including digitally enabled CS, in low-income and middle-income countries.Methods This mixed-method study was conducted in nine countries between October 2022 and June 2023. Recruitment through civil society targeted the general population, marginalised/indigenous groups, youth and community health workers. Participants (aged ≥18 years) completed a quantitative survey, and a subset participated in focus group discussions (FGDs).Results 2912 participants completed the survey and 4 FGDs were conducted in each country. Incorporating participants’ perspectives, CS is defined as the practice of active public participation, collaboration and communication in all aspects of scientific research to increase public knowledge, create awareness, build trust and facilitate information flow between citizens, governments and scientists. In Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines, Cameroon and Kenya, majority were unaware of outbreak-related CS. In India and Uganda, majority were aware but unengaged, while in Nepal and Zimbabwe, majority participated in CS before. Engagement approaches should consider different social and cultural contexts, while addressing incentivisation, attitudes and practicality factors. Overall, 76.0% expressed interest in digital CS but needed training to build skills and confidence. Digital CS was perceived as convenient, safer for outbreak-related activities and producing better quality and quantity of data. However, there were concerns over non-inclusion of certain groups, data security and unclear communication.Conclusion CS interventions need to be relatable and address context-specific factors influencing CS participation. Digital CS has the potential to facilitate collaboration, but capacity and access issues must be considered to ensure inclusive and sustainable engagement.

Abstract Background Acute encephalitis syndrome (AES) differs in its spatio-temporal distribution in Vietnam with the highest incidence seen during the summer months in the northern provinces. AES has multiple aetiologies, and the cause remains unknown in many cases. While vector-borne disease such as Japanese encephalitis and dengue virus and non-vector-borne diseases such as influenza and enterovirus show evidence of seasonality, associations with climate variables and the spatio-temporal distribution in Vietnam differs between these. The aim of this study was therefore to understand the spatio-temporal distribution of, and risk factors for AES in Vietnam to help hypothesise the aetiology. Methods The number of monthly cases per province for AES, meningitis and diseases including dengue fever; influenza-like-illness (ILI); hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD); and Streptococcus suis were obtained from the General Department for Preventive Medicine (GDPM) from 1998–2016. Covariates including climate, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), elevation, the number of pigs, socio-demographics, JEV vaccination coverage and the number of hospitals were also collected. Spatio-temporal multivariable mixed-effects negative binomial Bayesian models with an outcome of the number of cases of AES, a combination of the covariates and harmonic terms to determine the magnitude of seasonality were developed. Results The national monthly incidence of AES declined by 63.3% over the study period. However, incidence increased in some provinces, particularly in the Northwest region. In northern Vietnam, the incidence peaked in the summer months in contrast to the southern provinces where incidence remained relatively constant throughout the year. The incidence of meningitis, ILI and S. suis infection; temperature, relative humidity with no lag, NDVI at a lag of one month, and the number of pigs per 100,000 population were positively associated with the number of cases of AES in all models in which these covariates were included. Conclusions The positive correlation of AES with temperature and humidity suggest that a number of cases may be due to vector-borne diseases, suggesting a need to focus on vaccination campaigns. However, further surveillance and research are recommended to investigate other possible aetiologies such as S. suis or Orientia tsutsugamushi.

Introduction It is well known that influenza and other respiratory viruses are wintertime-seasonal in temperate regions. However, respiratory disease seasonality in the tropics is less well understood. In this study, we aimed to characterise the seasonality of influenza-like illness (ILI) and influenza virus in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.Methods We monitored the daily number of ILI patients in 89 outpatient clinics from January 2010 to December 2019. We collected nasal swabs and tested for influenza from a subset of clinics from May 2012 to December 2019. We used spectral analysis to describe the periodic signals in the system. We evaluated the contribution of these periodic signals to predicting ILI and influenza patterns through lognormal and gamma hurdle models.Results During 10 years of community surveillance, 66 799 ILI reports were collected covering 2.9 million patient visits; 2604 nasal swabs were collected, 559 of which were PCR-positive for influenza virus. Both annual and nonannual cycles were detected in the ILI time series, with the annual cycle showing 8.9% lower ILI activity (95% CI 8.8% to 9.0%) from February 24 to May 15. Nonannual cycles had substantial explanatory power for ILI trends (ΔAIC=183) compared with all annual covariates (ΔAIC=263) in lognormal regression. Near-annual signals were observed for PCR-confirmed influenza but were not consistent over time or across influenza (sub)types. The explanatory power of climate factors for ILI and influenza virus trends was weak.Conclusion Our study reveals a unique pattern of respiratory disease dynamics in a tropical setting influenced by both annual and nonannual drivers, with influenza dynamics showing near-annual periodicities. Timing of vaccination campaigns and hospital capacity planning may require a complex forecasting approach.

Abstract Stochastic population dynamics simulations are essential for many ecological and epidemiological studies to generate time series and genealogies that capture the relatedness between individuals. Many software packages allow one to simulate phylogenetic trees but these tend to suffer from one or two major limitations. First, the underlying population dynamics model is often simplistic (e.g. constant population size or exponential growth). Second, the software packages are not appropriate to simulate a large number of trees. We introduce TiPS, an R package to generate trajectories and phylogenetic trees associated with a compartmental model. Trajectories are simulated using Gillespie's exact or approximate stochastic simulation algorithm, or a newly proposed mixed version of the two. Phylogenetic trees are simulated from a trajectory under a backwards‐in‐time approach (i.e. coalescent). TiPS is based on the Rcpp package, allowing to combine the flexibility of R for model definition and the speed of C++ for simulations execution. The model is defined in R with a set of reactions, which allow capturing heterogeneity in life cycles or any sort of population structure. TiPS converts the model into C++ code and compiles it into a simulator that is interfaced in R via a function. TiPS is flexible, easy‐to‐use and available on the CRAN at https://cran.r‐project.org/package=TiPS. Plus, benchmarking analyses show that TiPS is faster than existing packages. This package is particularly well suited for population genetics and phylodynamics studies that need to generate a large number of phylogenies used for population dynamics studies.

Multi-strain pathogens, such as influenza, present challenges for interpretation of seroprevalence data as estimates may vary by strain. Here, the authors develop a method for estimating age-specific seroprevalence based on principal components analysis and apply it to influenza data from Vietnam.

Background COVID-19 was first detected in Wuhan, China, in 2019 and spread worldwide within a few weeks. The COVID-19 epidemic started to gain traction in France in March 2020. Subnational hospital admissions and deaths were then recorded daily and served as the main policy indicators. Concurrently, mobile phone positioning data have been curated to determine the frequency of users being colocalized within a given distance. Contrarily to individual tracking data, these can be a proxy for human contact networks between subnational administrative units.Methods Motivated by numerous studies correlating human mobility data and disease incidence, we developed predictive time series models of hospital incidence between July 2020 and April 2021. We added human contact network analytics, such as clustering coefficients, contact network strength, null links or curvature, as regressors.Findings We found that predictions can be improved substantially (by more than 50%) at both the national level and the subnational level for up to 2 weeks. Our subnational analysis also revealed the importance of spatial structure, as incidence in colocalized administrative units improved predictions. This original application of network analytics from colocalization data to epidemic spread opens new perspectives for epidemic forecasting and public health.

Livestock has been implicated as a reservoir for antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes that can spread to humans when antimicrobials are used in animals for food production to treat clinical diseases and prevent and control common disease events. In Vietnam, mcr-1-harboring Escherichia coli (MCRPEC) strains have been isolated from humans, animals (chickens, pigs, and dogs) feces, flies, foods, and the environment (rainwater, well water, and irrigation water) in communities and from clinical specimens in hospitals. The relationship between levels of AMR in livestock and its occurrence in humans is complex and is driven by many factors. We conducted whole genome sequencing of MCRPEC to analyze the molecular epidemiological characteristics, history, and relatedness of 50 isolates obtained in 2019 from different reservoirs in farms and markets in Ha Nam province, Vietnam. 34 sequence types (STs) with 3 new STs were identified in multilocus sequence typing analysis: ST12945 and ST12946 from chicken feces, and ST12947 from flies. The AMR phenotypes of 50 MCRPEC isolates were as follows: ampicillin (100%, 50/50), cefotaxime (10%, 5/50), gentamicin (60%, 30/50), amikacin (8%, 4/50), meropenem (6%, 3/50), ceftazidime (18%, 9/50), colistin (24%, 12/50) and ciprofloxacin (80%, 40/50). All 50 MCRPEC isolates were identified as MDR. 100% (50/50) isolates carried AMR genes, ranging from 5 to 22 genes. The most prevalent plasmid replicon types carrying mcr-1 were IncP-1 (17/37, 45.9%), IncX4 (7/37, 18.9%), and IncHI2/IncHI2A (6/37, 16.2%). These data suggest that the epidemiology of the mcr-1 gene is mostly determined by plasmid spreading instead of clonal dissemination of MCRPE strains. The co-occurrence of several STs such as ST10, ST48, ST155, ST206, ST2705 in various sample types, joined to the higher prevalence of a few types of Inc plasmids, confirms the dissemination of the mcr-1 carrying plasmids in E. coli clones established in livestock. 5 over 8 STs identified in flies (ST206, ST2705, ST155, ST10, and ST48) suggested the fly contribution in the transmission of AMR bacteria in environments. These popular STs also occur in human samples and 100% of the human samples were positive for the mcr-1 gene.

This article summarises a recent virtual meeting organised by the Oxford University Clinical Research Unit in Vietnam on the topic of climate change and health, bringing local partners, faculty and external collaborators together from across the Wellcome and Oxford networks. Attendees included invited local and global climate scientists, clinicians, modelers, epidemiologists and community engagement practitioners, with a view to setting priorities, identifying synergies and fostering collaborations to help define the regional climate and health research agenda. In this summary paper, we outline the major themes and topics that were identified and what will be needed to take forward this research for the next decade. We aim to take a broad, collaborative approach to including climate science in our current portfolio where it touches on infectious diseases now, and more broadly in our future research directions. We will focus on strengthening our research portfolio on climate-sensitive diseases, and supplement this with high quality data obtained from internal studies and external collaborations, obtained by multiple methods, ranging from traditional epidemiology to innovative technology and artificial intelligence and community-led research. Through timely agenda setting and involvement of local stakeholders, we aim to help support and shape research into global heating and health in the region.

Abstract Objective To analyse data from 2016–17 from a hospital-based antimicrobial resistance surveillance with national coverage in a network of hospitals Viet Nam. Methods We analysed data from 13 hospitals, 3 less than the dataset from the 2012–13 period. Identification and antimicrobial susceptibility testing data from the clinical microbiology laboratories from samples sent in for routine diagnostics were used. Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute 2018 guidelines were used for antimicrobial susceptibility testing interpretation. WHONET was used for data entry, management and analysis. Results 42,553 deduplicated isolates were included in this analysis; including 30,222 (71%) Gram-negative and 12,331 (29%) Gram-positive bacteria. 8,793 (21%) were from ICUs and 7,439 (18%) isolates were from invasive infections. Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus were the most frequently detected species with 9,092 (21%) and 4,833 isolates (11%), respectively; followed by Klebsiella pneumoniae (3,858 isolates – 9.1%) and Acinetobacter baumannii (3,870 isolates – 9%). Bacteria were mainly isolated from sputum (8,798 isolates – 21%), blood (7,118 isolates – 17%) and urine (5,202 isolates – 12%). Among Gram-positives 3,302/4,515 isolates (73%) of S. aureus were MRSA; 99/290 (34%) of Enterococcus faecium were resistant to vancomycin; and 58% (663/1,136) of Streptococcus pneumoniae proportion were reduced susceptible to penicillin. Among Gram-negatives 59% (4,085/6,953) and 40% (1,186/2,958) of E. coli and K. pneumoniae produced ESBL and 29% (376/1,298) and 11% (961/8,830) were resistant to carbapenems, respectively. 79% (2855/3622) and 45% (1,514/3,376) of Acinetobacter spp. and Pseudomonas aeruginosa were carbapenem resistant, respectively. 88% (804/911) of Haemophilus influenzae were ampicillin resistant and 18/253 (7%) of Salmonella spp. and 7/46 (15%) of Shigella spp. were resistant to fluoroquinolones. The number of isolates from which data were submitted in the 2016–2017 period was twice as high as in 2012–2013. AMR proportions were higher in 2016–2017 for most pathogen-antimicrobial combinations of interest including imipenem-resistant A. baumannii, P. aeruginosa and Enterobacterales. Conclusions The data show alarmingly high and increasing resistant proportions among important organisms in Viet Nam. AMR proportions varied across hospital types and should be interpreted with caution because existing sampling bias and missing information on whether isolates were community or hospital acquired. Affordable and scalable ways to adopt a sample- or case-based approach across the network should be explored and clinical data should be integrated to help provide more accurate inferences of the surveillance data.

Linezolid is an antibiotic of last resort for the treatment of infections caused by Gram-positive bacteria, including vancomycin-resistant enterococci. Enterococcus faecalis, a member of enterococci, is a significant pathogen in nosocomial infections. E. faecalis resistance to linezolid is frequently related to the presence of optrA, which is often co-carried with fex, phenicol exporter genes, and erm genes encoding macrolide resistance. Therefore, the common use of antibiotics in veterinary might promote the occurrence of optrA in livestock settings. This is a cross-sectional study aiming to investigate the prevalence of optrA positive E. faecalis (OPEfs) in 6 reservoirs in farms in Ha Nam province, Vietnam, and its associated factors and to explore genetic relationships of OPEfs isolates. Among 639 collected samples, the prevalence of OPEfs was highest in flies, 46.8% (51/109), followed by chickens 37.3% (72/193), dogs 33.3% (17/51), humans 18.7% (26/139), wastewater 16.4% (11/67) and pigs 11.3%, (14/80). The total feeding area and total livestock unit of the farm were associated with the presence of OPEfs in chickens, flies, and wastewater. Among 186 OPEfs strains, 86% were resistant to linezolid. The presence of optrA was also related to the resistant phenotype against linezolid and levofloxacin of E. faecalis isolates. Close genotypic relationships identified by Pulsed Field Gel Electrophoresis between OPEfs isolates recovered from flies and other reservoirs including chickens, pigs, dogs, and wastewater suggested the role of flies in the transmission of antibiotic-resistant pathogens. These results provided warnings of linezolid resistance although it is not used in livestock.

Summary: Background: Over 10-years of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Birmingham presents an opportunity to explore epidemiological trends and risk factors for transmission in new detail. Methods: Between 1st January 2009 and 15th June 2019, we obtained the first WGS isolate from every patient resident in a postcode district covered by Birmingham's centralised tuberculosis service. Data on patients’ sex, country of birth, social risk-factors, anatomical locus of disease, and strain lineage were collected. Poisson harmonic regression was used to assess seasonal variation in case load and a mixed-effects multivariable Cox proportionate hazards model was used to assess risk factors for a future case arising in clusters defined by a 5 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) threshold, and by 12 SNPs in a sensitivity analysis. Findings: 511/1653 (31%) patients were genomically clustered with another. A seasonal variation in diagnoses was observed, peaking in spring, but only among clustered cases. Risk-factors for a future clustered case included UK-birth (aHR=2·03 (95%CI 1·35–3·04), p

Serologic studies are crucial for clarifying dynamics of the coronavirus disease pandemic. Past work on serologic studies (e.g., during influenza pandemics) has made relevant contributions, but specific conditions of the current situation require adaptation. Although detection of antibodies to measure exposure, immunity, or both seems straightforward conceptually, numerous challenges exist in terms of sample collection, what the presence of antibodies actually means, and appropriate analysis and interpretation to account for test accuracy and sampling biases. Successful deployment of serologic studies depends on type and performance of serologic tests, population studied, use of adequate study designs, and appropriate analysis and interpretation of data. We highlight key questions that serologic studies can help answer at different times, review strengths and limitations of different assay types and study designs, and discuss methods for rapid sharing and analysis of serologic data to determine global transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.

In the Mekong Delta region of Vietnam, small-scale chicken farming is common. However, high levels of disease or mortality in such flocks impair economic development and challenge the livelihoods of many rural households. We investigated 61 diseased small-scale flocks (122 chickens) for evidence of infection with 5 bacteria, 4 viruses, and helminths. Serological profiles (ELISA) were also determined against 6 of these pathogens. The aims of this study were the following: (1) to investigate the prevalence of different pathogens and to compare the probability of detection of bacterial pathogens using PCR and culture; (2) to investigate the relationship between detection of organisms in birds' tissues and the observed morbidity and mortality, as well as their antibody profile; and (3) to characterize risk factors for infection with specific viral or bacterial pathogens. We used PCR to test for viral (viruses causing infectious bronchitis [IB], highly pathogenic avian influenza [HPAI], Newcastle disease, and infectious bursal disease [IBD]) and bacterial pathogens (Mycoplasma gallisepticum, Pasteurella multocida, Avibacterium paragallinarum, and Ornithobacterium rhinotracheale [ORT]). The latter two were also investigated in respiratory tissues by conventional culture. Colisepticemic Escherichia coli was investigated by liver or spleen culture. In 49 of 61 (80.3%) flocks, at least one bacterial or viral pathogen was detected, and in 29 (47.5%) flocks, more than one pathogen was detected. A. paragallinarum was detected in 62.3% flocks, followed by M. gallisepticum (26.2%), viruses causing IBD (24.6%) and IB (21.3%), septicemic E. coli (14.8%), ORT (13.1%), and HPAI viruses (4.9%). Of all flocks, 67.2% flocks were colonized by helminths. Mortality was highest among flocks infected with HPAI (100%, interquartile range [IQR]: 81.6–100%) and lowest with flocks infected with ORT (5.3%, IQR: 1.1–9.0%). The results indicated slight agreement (kappa ≤ 0.167) between detection by PCR and culture for both A. paragallinarum and ORT, as well as between the presence of cestodes and ORT infection (kappa = 0.317). Control of A. paragallinarum, viruses causing HPAI, IBD, and IB, M. gallisepticum, and gastrointestinal helminths should be a priority in small-scale flocks.

Abstract Background Tuberculosis (TB) is a major global health burden, with an estimated quarter of the world’s population being infected. The World Health Organization (WHO) launched the “End TB Strategy” in 2014 emphasising knowing the epidemic. WHO ranks Vietnam 12th in the world of high burden countries. TB spatial and temporal patterns have been observed globally with evidence of Vitamin D playing a role in seasonality. We explored the presence of temporal and spatial clustering of TB in Vietnam and their determinants to aid public health measures. Methods Data were collected by the National TB program of Vietnam from 2010 to 2015 and linked to the following datasets: socio-demographic characteristics; climatic variables; influenza-like-illness (ILI) incidence; geospatial data. The TB dataset was aggregated by province and quarter. Descriptive time series analyses using LOESS regression were completed per province to determine seasonality and trend. Harmonic regression was used to determine the amplitude of seasonality by province. A mixed-effect linear model was used with province and year as random effects and all other variables as fixed effects. Results There were 610,676 cases of TB notified between 2010 and 2015 in Vietnam. Heat maps of TB incidence per quarter per province showed substantial temporal and geospatial variation. Time series analysis demonstrated seasonality throughout the country, with peaks in spring/summer and troughs in autumn/winter. Incidence was consistently higher in the south, the three provinces with the highest incidence per 100,000 population were Tay Ninh, An Giang and Ho Chi Minh City. However, relative seasonal amplitude was more pronounced in the north. Mixed-effect linear model confirmed that TB incidence was associated with time and latitude. Of the demographic, socio-economic and health related variables, population density, percentage of those under 15 years of age, and HIV infection prevalence per province were associated with TB incidence. Of the climate variables, absolute humidity, average temperature and sunlight were associated with TB incidence. Conclusion Preventative public health measures should be focused in the south of Viet Nam where incidence is highest. Vitamin D is unlikely to be a strong driver of seasonality but supplementation may play a role in a package of interventions.

Abstract The accurate assessment of antimicrobial use (AMU) requires relating quantities of active ingredients (AAIs) with population denominators. These data can be used to prioritize potential sources of selective pressure for antimicrobial resistance and to establish reduction targets. Here, we estimated AMU in Vietnam (human population 93.4 M in 2015), and compared it with European Union (EU) data (population 511.5 M in 2014). We extrapolated AMU data on each key animal species and humans from different published sources to calculate overall AMU (in tonnes) in Vietnam. We then compared these data with published statistics on AMU in the European Union (EU). A total of 3838 t of antimicrobials were used in Vietnam, of which 2751 (71.7%) corresponded to animal use, and the remainder (1086 t; 28.3%) to human AMU. This equates to 261.7 mg and 247.3 mg per kg of human and animal biomass, compared with 122.0 mg and 151.5 mg in the EU. The greatest quantities of antimicrobials (in decreasing order) were used in pigs (41.7% of total use), humans (28.3%), aquaculture (21.9%) and chickens (4.8%). Combined AMU in other species accounted for

In recent years, serosurveillance has gained momentum as a way of determining disease transmission and immunity in populations, particularly with respect to vaccine-preventable diseases. At the end of 2017, the Oxford University Clinical Research Unit and the National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology held a meeting in Vietnam with national policy makers, researchers, and international experts to discuss current seroepidemiologic projects in Vietnam and future needs and plans for nationwide serosurveillance. This report summarizes the meeting and the plans that were discussed to set up nationwide serosurveillance in Vietnam.

A cluster of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infections in Danang, Vietnam, began July 25, 2020, and resulted in 551 confirmed cases and 35 deaths as of February 2021. We analyzed 26 sequences from this cluster and identified a novel shared mutation in nonstructural protein 9, suggesting a single introduction into Vietnam.

ABSTRACT: Background: Data on breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant infections in vaccinated individuals are limited. Methods: We studied breakthrough infections among Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccinated healthcare workers in an infectious diseases hospital in Vietnam. We collected demographic and clinical data alongside serial PCR testing, measurement of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, and viral whole-genome sequencing. Findings: Between 11th–25th June 2021 (7-8 weeks after the second dose), 69 staff tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. 62 participated in the study. Most were asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic and all recovered. Twenty-two complete-genome sequences were obtained; all were Delta variant and were phylogenetically distinct from contemporary viruses obtained from the community or from hospital patients admitted prior to the outbreak. Viral loads inferred from Ct values were 251 times higher than in cases infected with the original strain in March/April 2020. Median time from diagnosis to negative PCR was 21 days (range 8–33). Neutralizing antibodies (expressed as percentage of inhibition) measured after the second vaccine dose, or at diagnosis, were lower in cases than in uninfected, fully vaccinated controls (median (IQR): 69.4 (50.7-89.1) vs. 91.3 (79.6-94.9), p=0.005 and 59.4 (32.5-73.1) vs. 91.1 (77.3-94.2), p=0.002). There was no correlation between vaccine-induced neutralizing antibody levels and peak viral loads or the development of symptoms. Interpretation: Breakthrough Delta variant infections following Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccination may cause asymptomatic or mild disease, but are associated with high viral loads, prolonged PCR positivity and low levels of vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies. Epidemiological and sequence data suggested ongoing transmission had occurred between fully vaccinated individuals. Funding: Wellcome and NIH/NIAID

Abstract Background Antimicrobials are used by poultry farmers in Vietnam as a tool to treat and prevent infectious diseases. We aimed to determine the fraction of disease episodes likely to remain untreated due to the administration of antimicrobials on non-susceptible pathogens in chicken flocks in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam. Weekly data on antimicrobial use and clinical signs were collected from 88 randomly chosen chicken flocks over 124 full production cycles (i.e. time between restocking flocks with day-old chicks and sale for slaughter). A naïve Bayes model was trained to infer the probabilities of disease episodes having been caused by each of 24 pathogens, given the observed clinical sign profile, and expert knowledge on their relative incidence. Results A total of 224 disease episodes were observed, of which 44.8% were attributed to viruses (95% CI 31.1–58.4%), 54.6% (CI 40.4–68.7%) to bacteria, and 0.6% (CI 0–1.7%) to a protozoan (Eimeria spp.). Antimicrobials were more frequently administered on weeks with disease than on weeks without disease (43.3% vs. 17.8%; p

Rickettsioses are endemic to Vietnam; however, only a limited number of clinical studies have been performed on these vectorborne bacteria. We conducted a prospective hospital-based study at 2 national referral hospitals in Hanoi to describe the clinical characteristics of scrub typhus and murine typhus in northern Vietnam and to assess the diagnostic applicability of quantitative real-time PCR assays to diagnose rickettsial diseases. We enrolled 302 patients with acute undifferentiated fever and clinically suspected rickettsiosis during March 2015–March 2017. We used a standardized case report form to collect clinical information and laboratory results at the time of admission and during treatment. We confirmed scrub typhus in 103 (34.1%) patients and murine typhus in 12 (3.3%) patients. These results highlight the need for increased emphasis on training for healthcare providers for earlier recognition, prevention, and treatment of rickettsial diseases in Vietnam.

In an epidemic, individuals can widely differ in the way they spread the infection depending on their age or on the number of days they have been infected for. In the absence of pharmaceutical interventions such as a vaccine or treatment, non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g. physical or social distancing) are essential to mitigate the pandemic. We develop an original approach to identify the optimal age-stratified control strategy to implement as a function of the time since the onset of the epidemic. This is based on a model with a double continuous structure in terms of host age and time since infection. By applying optimal control theory to this model, we identify a solution that minimizes deaths and costs associated with the implementation of the control strategy itself. We also implement this strategy for three countries with contrasted age distributions (Burkina-Faso, France, and Vietnam). Overall, the optimal strategy varies throughout the epidemic, with a more intense control early on, and depending on host age, with a stronger control for the older population, except in the scenario where the cost associated with the control is low. In the latter scenario, we find strong differences across countries because the control extends to the younger population for France and Vietnam 2 to 3 months after the onset of the epidemic, but not for Burkina Faso. Finally, we show that the optimal control strategy strongly outperforms a constant uniform control exerted over the whole population or over its younger fraction. This improved understanding of the effect of age-based control interventions opens new perspectives for the field, especially for age-based contact tracing.

Antimicrobials are included in commercial animal feed rations in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We measured antimicrobial use (AMU) in commercial feed products consumed by 338 small-scale chicken flocks in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam, before a gradual nationwide ban on prophylactic use of antimicrobials (including in commercial feeds) to be introduced in the country over the coming five years. We inspected the labels of commercial feeds and calculated amounts of antimicrobial active ingredients (AAIs) given to flocks. We framed these results in the context of overall AMU in chicken production, and highlighted those products that did not comply with Government regulations. Thirty-five of 99 (35.3%) different antimicrobial-containing feed products included at least one AAI. Eight different AAIs (avilamycin, bacitracin, chlortetracycline, colistin, enramycin, flavomycin, oxytetracycline, virginamycin) belonging to five classes were identified. Brooding feeds contained antimicrobials the most (60.0%), followed by grower (40.9%) and finisher feeds (20.0%). Quantitatively, chlortetracycline was consumed most (42.2 mg/kg SEM ±0.34; 50.0% of total use), followed by enramycin (18.4 mg/kg SEM ±0.03, 21.8%), bacitracin (16.4 mg/kg SEM ±0.20, 19.4%) and colistin (6.40 mg/kg SEM ± 4.21;7.6%). Other antimicrobials consumed were virgianamycin, avilamycin, flavomycin and oxytetracycline (each ≤0.50 mg/kg). Antimicrobials in commercial feeds were more commonly given to flocks in the earlier part of the production cycle. A total of 10 (9.3%) products were not compliant with existing Vietnamese regulation (06/2016/TT-BNNPTNT) either because they included a non-authorised AAI (4), had AAIs over the permitted limits (4), or both (2). A number of commercial feed formulations examined included colistin (polymyxin E), a critically important antimicrobial of highest priority for human medicine. These results illustrate the challenges for effective implementation and enforcement of restrictions of antimicrobials in commercial feeds in LMICs. Results from this study should help encourage discussion about policies on medicated feeds in LMICs.

Abstract Evaluating the risk of emergence and transmission of vector‐borne diseases requires knowledge of the genetic and environmental contributions to pathogen transmission traits. Compared to the significant effort devoted to understanding the biology of malaria transmission from vertebrate hosts to mosquito vectors, the strategies that malaria parasites have evolved to maximize transmission from vectors to vertebrate hosts have been largely overlooked. While determinants of infection success within the mosquito host have recently received attention, the causes of variability for other key transmission traits of malaria, namely the duration of parasite development and its virulence within the vector, as well as its ability to alter mosquito behavior, remain largely unknown. This important gap in our knowledge needs to be bridged in order to obtain an integrative view of the ecology and evolution of malaria transmission strategies. Associations between transmission traits also need to be characterized, as they trade‐offs and constraints could have important implications for understanding the evolution of parasite transmission. Finally, theoretical studies are required to evaluate how genetic and environmental influences on parasite transmission traits can shape malaria dynamics and evolution in response to disease control.

Abstract While climate is often presented as a key factor influencing the seasonality of diseases, the importance of anthropogenic factors is less commonly evaluated. Using a combination of methods – wavelet analysis, economic analysis, statistical and disease transmission modelling – we aimed to explore the influence of climatic and economic factors on the seasonality of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the domestic poultry population of Vietnam. We found that while climatic variables are associated with seasonal variation in the incidence of avian influenza outbreaks in the North of the country, this is not the case in the Centre and the South. In contrast, temporal patterns of H5N1 incidence are similar across these 3 regions: periods of high H5N1 incidence coincide with Lunar New Year festival, occurring in January-February, in the 3 climatic regions for 5 out of the 8 study years. Yet, daily poultry meat consumption drastically increases during Lunar New Year festival throughout the country. To meet this rise in demand, poultry production and trade are expected to peak around the festival period, promoting viral spread, which we demonstrated using a stochastic disease transmission model. This study illustrates the way in which economic factors may influence the dynamics of livestock pathogens.

Chicken is, among farmed species, the target of the highest levels of antimicrobial use (AMU). There are considerable knowledge gaps on how and when antimicrobials are used in commercial small-scale chicken farms. These shortcomings arise from cross-sectional study designs and poor record keeping practiced by many such farmers. Furthermore, there is a large diversity of AMU metrics, and it is not clear how these metrics relate to each other. We performed a longitudinal study on a cohort of small-scale chicken farms (n = 102) in the Mekong Delta (Vietnam), an area regarded as a hotspot of AMU, from October 2016 to May 2018. We collected data on all medicine products administered to 203 flocks with the following aims: (1) to describe types and quantities of antimicrobial active ingredients (AAIs) used; (2) to describe critical time points of AMU; and (3) to compare AMU using three quantitative metrics: (a) weight of AAIs related to bird weight at the time of treatment (mg/kg at treatment); (b) weight of AAIs related to weight of birds sold (mg/kg sold); and (c) “treatment incidence” (TI), or the number of daily doses per kilogram of live chicken [Vietnamese animal daily dose (ADDvetVN)] per 1,000 days. Antimicrobials contained in commercial feed, administered by injection (n = N = 6), or antimicrobials for human medicine (n = N = 16) were excluded. A total of 236 products were identified, containing 42 different AAIs. A total of 76.2% products contained AAIs of “critical importance” according to the World Health Organization (WHO). On average, chickens consumed 791.8 (SEM ±16.7) mg/kg at treatment, 323.4 (SEM ±11.3) mg/kg sold, and the TI was 382.6 (SEM ±5.5) per 1,000 days. AMU was more common early in the production cycle and was highly skewed, with the upper 25% quantile of flocks accounting for 60.7% of total AMU. The observed discrepancies between weight- and dose-based metrics were explained by differences in the strength of AAIs, mortality levels, and the timing of administration. Results suggest that in small-scale chicken production, AMU reduction efforts should preferentially target the early (brooding) period, which is when birds are most likely to be exposed to antimicrobials, whilst restricting access to antimicrobials of critical importance for human medicine.

Dengue outbreaks have regularly been recorded in Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) since the first detection of the disease in 1979. In 2012, an integrated arbovirus surveillance network was set up in Lao PDR and an entomological surveillance has been implemented since 2016 in Vientiane Capital. Here, we report a study combining epidemiological, phylogenetic, and entomological analyzes during the largest DENV-4 epidemic ever recorded in Lao PDR (2015–2019). Strikingly, from 2015 to 2019, we reported the DENV-4 emergence and spread at the country level after two large epidemics predominated by DENV-3 and DENV-1, respectively, in 2012–2013 and 2015. Our data revealed a significant difference in the median age of the patient infected by DENV-4 compared to the other serotypes. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated the circulation of DENV-4 Genotype I at the country level since at least 2013. The entomological surveillance showed a predominance of Aedesaegypti compared to Aedesalbopictus and high abundance of these vectors in dry and rainy seasons between 2016 and 2019, in Vientiane Capital. Overall, these results emphasized the importance of an integrated approach to evaluate factors, which could impact the circulation and the epidemiological profile of dengue viruses, especially in endemic countries like Lao PDR.

Due to worldwide increased human mobility, air-transportation data and mathematical models have been widely used to measure risks of global dispersal of pathogens. However, the seasonal and interannual risks of pathogens importation and onward transmission from endemic countries have rarely been quantified and validated. We constructed a modelling framework, integrating air travel, epidemiological, demographical, entomological and meteorological data, to measure the seasonal probability of dengue introduction from endemic countries. This framework has been applied retrospectively to elucidate spatiotemporal patterns and increasing seasonal risk of dengue importation from South-East Asia into China via air travel in multiple populations, Chinese travelers and local residents, over a decade of 2005-15. We found that the volume of airline travelers from South-East Asia into China has quadrupled from 2005 to 2015 with Chinese travelers increased rapidly. Following the growth of air traffic, the probability of dengue importation from South-East Asia into China has increased dramatically from 2005 to 2015. This study also revealed seasonal asymmetries of transmission routes: Sri Lanka and Maldives have emerged as origins; neglected cities at central and coastal China have been increasingly vulnerable to dengue importation and onward transmission. Compared to the monthly occurrence of dengue reported in China, our model performed robustly for importation and onward transmission risk estimates. The approach and evidence could facilitate to understand and mitigate the changing seasonal threat of arbovirus from endemic regions.

Multi-species interactions can often have non-intuitive consequences. However, the study of parasite interactions has rarely gone beyond the effects of pairwise combinations of species, and the outcomes of multi-parasite interactions are poorly understood. We investigated the effects of co-infection by four gastrointestinal helminth species on the development of cerebral malaria among Plasmodium falciparum-infected patients. We characterized associations among the helminth parasite infra-community, and then tested for independent (direct) and co-infection dependent (indirect) effects of helminths on cerebral malaria risk. We found that infection by Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura were both associated with direct reductions in cerebral malaria risk. However, the benefit of T. trichiura infection was halved in the presence of hookworm, revealing a strong indirect effect. Our study suggests that the outcome of interactions between two parasite species can be significantly modified by a third, emphasizing the critical role that parasite community interactions play in shaping infection outcomes.

Background: Experimental and ecological studies have shown the role of climatic factors in driving the epidemiology of influenza. In particular, low absolute humidity (AH) has been shown to increase influenza virus transmissibility and has been identified to explain the onset of epidemics in temperate regions. Here, we aim to study the potential climatic drivers of influenza-like illness (ILI) epidemiology in Vietnam, a tropical country characterized by a high diversity of climates. We specifically focus on quantifying and explaining the seasonality of ILI. Methods: We used 18 years (1993–2010) of monthly ILI notifications aggregated by province (52) and monthly climatic variables (minimum, mean, maximum temperatures, absolute and relative humidities, rainfall and hours of sunshine) from 67 weather stations across Vietnam. Seasonalities were quantified from global wavelet spectra, using the value of the power at the period of 1 year as a measure of the intensity of seasonality. The 7 climatic time series were characterized by 534 summary statistics which were entered into a regression tree to identify factors associated with the seasonality of AH. Results were extrapolated to the global scale using simulated climatic times series from the NCEP/NCAR project. Results: The intensity of ILI seasonality in Vietnam is best explained by the intensity of AH seasonality. We find that ILI seasonality is weak in provinces experiencing weak seasonal fluctuations in AH (annual power 17.6). In Vietnam, AH and ILI are positively correlated. Conclusions: Our results identify a role for AH in driving the epidemiology of ILI in a tropical setting. However, in contrast to temperate regions, high rather than low AH is associated with increased ILI activity. Fluctuation in AH may be the climate factor that underlies and unifies the seasonality of ILI in both temperate and tropical regions. Alternatively, the mechanism of action of AH on disease transmission may be different in cold-dry versus hot-humid settings.

BACKGROUND:The global burden of diarrhea is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. In montane areas of South-East Asia such as northern Laos, recent changes in land use have induced increased runoff, soil erosion and in-stream suspended sediment loads, and potential pathogen dissemination. To our knowledge, few studies have related diarrhea incidences to catchment scale hydrological factors such as river discharge, and loads of suspended sediment and of Fecal Indicator Bacteria (FIB) such as Escherichia coli, together with sociological factors such as hygiene practices. We hypothesized that climate factors combined with human behavior control diarrhea incidence, either because higher rainfall, leading to higher stream discharges, suspended sediment loads and FIB counts, are associated with higher numbers of reported diarrhea cases during the rainy season, or because water shortage leads to the use of less safe water sources during the dry season. Using E. coli as a FIB, the objectives of this study were thus (1) to characterize the epidemiological dynamics of diarrhea in Northern Laos, and (2) to identify which hydro-meteorological and sociological risk factors were associated with diarrhea epidemics. METHODS:Considering two unconnected river catchments of 22 and 7,448 km2, respectively, we conducted a retrospective time series analysis of meteorological variables (rainfall, air temperature), hydrological variables (discharge, suspended sediments, FIB counts, water temperature), and the number of diarrheal disease cases reported at 6 health centers located in the 5 southern districts of the Luang Prabang Province, Lao PDR. We also examined the socio-demographic factors potentially affecting vulnerability to the effect of the climate factors, such as drinking water sources, hygiene habits, and recreational water exposure. RESULTS:Using thus a mixed methods approach, we found E. coli to be present all year long (100-1,000 Most Probable Number or MPN 100 mL-1) indicating that fecal contamination is ubiquitous and constant. We found that populations switch their water supply from wells to surface water during drought periods, the latter of which appear to be at higher risk of bacterial contamination than municipal water fountains. We thus found that water shortage in the Luang Prabang area triggers diarrhea peaks during the dry and hot season and that rainfall and aquifer refill ends the epidemic during the wet season. The temporal trends of reported daily diarrhea cases were generally bimodal with hospital admissions peaking in February-March and later in May-July. Annual incidence rates were higher in more densely populated areas and mostly concerned the 0-4 age group and male patients. CONCLUSIONS:We found that anthropogenic drivers, such as hygiene practices, were at least as important as environmental drivers in determining the seasonal pattern of a diarrhea epidemic. For diarrheal disease risk monitoring, discharge or groundwater level can be considered as relevant proxies. These variables should be monitored in the framework of an early warning system provided that a tradeoff is found between the size of the monitored catchment and the frequency of the measurement.

Theory predicts that selection for pathogen virulence and horizontal transmission is highest at the onset of an epidemic but decreases thereafter, as the epidemic depletes the pool of susceptible hosts. We tested this prediction by tracking the competition between the latent bacteriophage λ and its virulent mutant λcI857 throughout experimental epidemics taking place in continuous cultures of Escherichia coli. As expected, the virulent λcI857 is strongly favored in the early stage of the epidemic, but loses competition with the latent virus as prevalence increases. We show that the observed transient selection for virulence and horizontal transmission can be fully explained within the framework of evolutionary epidemiology theory. This experimental validation of our predictions is a key step towards a predictive theory for the evolution of virulence in emerging infectious diseases.

Although bubonic plague is an endemic zoonosis in many countries around the world, the factors responsible for the persistence of this highly virulent disease remain poorly known. Classically, the endemic persistence of plague is suspected to be due to the coexistence of plague resistant and plague susceptible rodents in natural foci, and/or to a metapopulation structure of reservoirs. Here, we test separately the effect of each of these factors on the long-term persistence of plague. We analyse the dynamics and equilibria of a model of plague propagation, consistent with plague ecology in Madagascar, a major focus where this disease is endemic since the 1920s in central highlands. By combining deterministic and stochastic analyses of this model, and including sensitivity analyses, we show that (i) endemicity is favoured by intermediate host population sizes, (ii) in large host populations, the presence of resistant rats is sufficient to explain long-term persistence of plague, and (iii) the metapopulation structure of susceptible host populations alone can also account for plague endemicity, thanks to both subdivision and the subsequent reduction in the size of subpopulations, and extinction-recolonization dynamics of the disease. In the light of these results, we suggest scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in Madagascar.

A total of 221 isolates of M. tuberculosis were sampled from hospitals and the general population in the northern plain of Vietnam, one of the most populated region of the country. Genotypic composition and diversity were characterized, and we investigated how they are affected by sampling (hospital vs. general population), correcting for potential confounding effects (location, age and gender of the patients). Spoligotyping and 12 MIRU-VNTR typing were used as first line. Then 15 MIRU-VNTR standard set was used, making 21 MIRU-VNTR typing for the clustered isolates. Result showed that 8 lineages and 13 sub-lineages were circulating in the region. The most predominant lineages were Beijing (38.5%) and EAI (38.5%). Others appeared with small proportions H (1.4%), LAM (1.8%), T (8.1%), X (0.9%), MANU (2.3%), and Zero (0.4%). Higher clustering rate was found in the hospital samples (17.9% in urban and 19.2% in rural areas) compared to the population ones (0%). The typical Vietnamese EAI4-VNM sub-lineage of EAI lineage accounted for 67% of EAI strains and was associated with older ages. Beijing genotypes were associated with younger, urban population and were characterized by high clustering rates. These characteristics strongly suggest that Beijing strains are invading the population, replacing the local EAI-VNM4, thus predicting a more serious tuberculosis situation in the future in the absence of more effective control strategies.

BACKGROUND: Social scientists have suggested that cultural diversity in a nation leads to societal instability. However, societal instability may be affected not only by within-nation or alpha diversity, but also diversity between a nation and its neighbours or beta diversity. It is also necessary to distinguish different domains of diversity, namely linguistic, ethnic and religious, and to distinguish between the direct effects of diversity on societal instability, and effects that are mediated by economic conditions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We assembled a large cross-national dataset with information on alpha and beta cultural diversity, economic conditions, and indices of societal instability. Structural equation modeling was used to evaluate the direct and indirect effects of cultural diversity on economics and societal stability. Results show that different types and domains of diversity have interacting effects. As previously documented, linguistic alpha diversity has a negative effect on economic performance, and we show that it is largely through this economic mechanism that it affects societal instability. For beta diversity, the higher the linguistic diversity among nations in a region, the less stable the nation. But, religious beta diversity has the opposite effect, reducing instability, particularly in the presence of high linguistic diversity. CONCLUSIONS: Within-nation linguistic diversity is associated with reduced economic performance, which, in turn, increases societal instability. Nations which differ linguistically from their neighbors are also less stable. However, religious diversity between neighboring nations has the opposite effect, decreasing societal instability.

Theoretical studies of wildlife population dynamics have proved insightful for sustainable management, where the principal aim is to maximize short-term yield, without risking population extinction. Surprisingly, infectious diseases have not been accounted for in harvest models, which is a major oversight because the consequences of parasites for host population dynamics are well-established. Here, we present a simple general model for a host species subject to density dependent reproduction and seasonal demography. We assume this host species is subject to infection by a strongly immunizing, directly transmitted pathogen. In this context, we show that the interaction between density dependent effects and harvesting can substantially increase both disease prevalence and the absolute number of infectious individuals. This effect clearly increases the risk of cross-species disease transmission into domestic and livestock populations. In addition, if the disease is associated with a risk of mortality, then the synergistic interaction between hunting and disease-induced death can increase the probability of host population extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]