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Resumo Objetivo Analisar os fatores preditivos à perda de seguimento do tratamento da tuberculose em pessoas privadas de liberdade no estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Métodos Estudo de coorte retrospectivo. Foram coletados dados de fontes secundárias de pessoas privadas de liberdade notificadas com tuberculose no período de 2015 a 2017 no estado. O risco de perda de seguimento segundo as variáveis de exposição (sociodemográficas, de detecção de casos, clínicas e de acompanhamento) foi estabelecido pelas razões de chance Odds Ratio bruto, as quais, quando significativas, foram incluídas no modelo múltiplo com método forward (Likelihood Ratio), determinando seus Odds Ratio ajustado. Resultados Foram incluídos 9.153 casos no estudo, dos quais 6% foram encerrados como perda de seguimento. Na análise múltipla, as variáveis preditoras para a perda de seguimento foram: sexo feminino; notificação por determinadas coordenadorias; retratamento pós-abandono, resistência medicamentosa em andamento sem informação, tipo de tratamento sem informação e necessidade de internação. Conclusão Os achados do estudo destacam a importância de sensibilizar os profissionais de saúde nas unidades prisionais sobre a identificação do perfil de risco para a perda de seguimento no tratamento da tuberculose em pessoas privadas de liberdade. Tal identificação abrange mulheres detidas na região metropolitana, em centros de detenção provisória e de progressão penitenciária. Além disso, devem-se incluir pessoas em retratamento pós-abandono, com necessidade de internação e ausência de informações sobre resistência medicamentosa e tipo de tratamento.

ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the spatial behavior of hepatitis A, measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR), and varicella vaccination coverage in children and its relationship with socioeconomic determinants in the state of Minas Gerais. Methods: This ecological study investigated records of doses administered to children, extracted from the Immunization Information System of 853 municipalities in Minas Gerais, in 2020. We analyzed the vaccination coverage and socioeconomic factors. Spatial scan statistics were used to identify spatial clusters and measure the relative risk based on the vaccination coverage indicator and the Bivariate Moran Index, and thus detect socioeconomic factors correlated with the spatial distribution of vaccination. We used the cartographic base of the state and its municipalities and the ArcGIS and SPSS software programs. Results: Hepatitis A (89.0%), MMR (75.7%), and varicella (89.0%) showed low vaccination coverage. All vaccines analyzed had significant clusters. The clusters most likely to vaccinate their population were mainly located in the Central, Midwest, South Central, and Northwest regions, while the least likely were in the North, Northeast, and Triângulo do Sul regions. The municipal human development index, urbanization rate, and gross domestic product were spatially dependent on vaccination coverage. Conclusions: The spatial behavior of hepatitis A, MMR, and varicella vaccination coverage is heterogeneous and associated with socioeconomic factors. We emphasize that vaccination records require attention and should be continuously monitored to improve the quality of information used in services and research.

Abstract Objectives To identify risk-prone areas for the spread of tuberculosis, analyze spatial variation and temporal trends of the disease in these areas and identify their determinants in a high burden city. Methods An ecological study was carried out in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil. The population was composed of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported in the Tuberculosis Patient Control System between 2006 and 2017. Seasonal Trend Decomposition using the Loess decomposition method was used. Spatial and spatiotemporal scanning statistics were applied to identify risk areas. Spatial Variation in Temporal Trends (SVTT) was used to detect risk-prone territories with changes in the temporal trend. Finally, Pearson's Chi-square test was performed to identify factors associated with the epidemiological situation in the municipality. Results Between 2006 and 2017, 1760 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in the municipality. With spatial scanning, four groups of clusters were identified with relative risks (RR) from 0.19 to 0.52, 1.73, 2.07, and 2.68 to 2.72. With the space–time scan, four clusters were also identified with RR of 0.13 (2008–2013), 1.94 (2010–2015), 2.34 (2006 to 2011), and 2.84 (2014–2017). With the SVTT, a cluster was identified with RR 0.11, an internal time trend of growth (+ 0.09%/year), and an external time trend of decrease (− 0.06%/year). Finally, three risk factors and three protective factors that are associated with the epidemiological situation in the municipality were identified, being: race/brown color (OR: 1.26), without education (OR: 1.71), retired (OR: 1.35), 15 years or more of study (OR: 0.73), not having HIV (OR: 0.55) and not having diabetes (OR: 0.35). Conclusion The importance of using spatial analysis tools in identifying areas that should be prioritized for TB control is highlighted, and greater attention is necessary for individuals who fit the profile indicated as “at risk” for the disease.

Abstract Objective: to evaluate how different educational strategies contribute to knowledge gains perceived by caregivers of people using Enteral Nutritional Therapy. Method: a quasi-experimental study conducted in two stages: the first one included an interactive lecture class (LC) and the second was carried out in two groups: in-situ simulated skills training (ST) and reading of an educational booklet (EB). The caregivers answered a self-administered questionnaire to assess knowledge before and after the interventions; for the analysis, a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution was proposed and the comparisons were carried out using orthogonal contrasts. Results: the participants were 30 caregivers; evidence of a difference in knowledge between the t1and t0 moments is evidenced. The analysis of the final comparison about the knowledge gain between the EB and ST groups, according to Student’s t, evidenced an estimated difference of -1,33, with 95% CI (-4.98; 2.31) and p-value=0.46. Conclusion: knowledge was further increased between the t1 and t0 moments, when compared to the t2 and t1 moments in both groups. When compared, we cannot conclude that one of the groups changed more than the other in relation to moment t0 and t2; thus, the study evidenced the knowledge gain after all the educational strategies in both groups.

Abstract Background The aim of this study was to describe the temporal trend of tuberculosis cases according to sex and age group and evidence the level of disease before the Covid-19 pandemic in a TB high endemic city. Methods This was a time series study carried out in a city in northeast Brazil. The population was composed of cases of tuberculosis, excluding those with HIV-positive status, reported between the years 2002 and 2018. An exploratory analysis of the monthly rates of tuberculosis detection, smoothed according to sex and age group, was performed. Subsequently, the progression of the trend and prediction of the disease were also characterized according to these aspects. For the trends forecast, the seasonal autoregressive linear integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the usual Box-Jenkins method were used to choose the most appropriate models. Results A total of 1620 cases of tuberculosis were reported, with an incidence of 49.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in men and 34.0 per 100,000 in women. Regarding the incidence for both sexes, there was a decreasing trend, which was similar for age. Evidence resulting from the application of the time series shows a decreasing trend in the years 2002–2018, with a trend of stability. Conclusions The study evidenced a decreasing trend in tuberculosis, even before the Covid-19 pandemic, for both sex and age; however, in a step really slow from that recommended by the World Health Organization. According to the results, the disease would have achieved a level of stability in the city next years, however it might have been aggravated by the pandemic. These findings are relevant to evidence the serious behavior and trends of TB in a high endemic scenario considering a context prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Abstract Objective: to identify spatial clusters corresponding to abandonment of routine vaccines in children. Method: an ecological study, according to data from the 853 municipalities of a Brazilian state. The records analyzed were those of the multidose pentavalent, pneumococcal 10-valent, inactivated poliomyelitis and oral human rotavirus vaccines of 781,489 children aged less than one year old. The spatial scan statistics was used to identify spatial clusters and assess the relative risk based on the vaccination abandonment indicator. Results: the spatial scan statistics detected the presence of statistically significant clusters for abandonment regarding the four vaccines in all the years analyzed. However, the highest number of clusters with high relative risk estimates was identified in 2020. The Vale do Aço and West, North and West, and Southwest regions stand out for the pentavalent, poliomyelitis and rotavirus vaccines, respectively. Conclusion: in an attempt to mitigate the devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the immunization program experienced setbacks. The presence of clusters points to the need to implement integrated strategies that may involve different sectors for an active search for children and prevent outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases in the near future.

Chronic non-communicable diseases constitute the highest burden of morbidity and mortality in the world and is responsible for 63% of deaths worldwide. In Brazil, they still represent the highest mortality in the country. Thus, the objective of the study was to identify areas of risk and protection for premature mortality from chronic non-communicable diseases according to social vulnerability in the city of Ribeirão Preto from 2010 to 2014. This was an ecological, quantitative study in which, through the method of spatial scanning, the relative risk and 95% confidence interval were calculated according to social vulnerability data. Five areas of statistical significance were identified, with two high-risk areas being predominantly of census sectors classified as low vulnerability, medium vulnerability, and high vulnerability in urban environments, and three protection areas with being predominantly of census sectors classified as extremely low vulnerability. It was possible to identify areas of risk or protection for premature mortality due to CNCDs, which can contribute to the development of effective innovative strategies to reduce the burden of these diseases for SUS.

Abstract Background A diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) does not mean that the disease will be treated successfully, since death may occur even among those who are known to the health services. Here, we aimed to analyze patient survival time from the diagnosis of TB to death, precocious deaths, and associated factors in southern Brazil. Methods We conducted a longitudinal study with patients who were diagnosed with TB and who died due to the disease between 2008 and 2015 in southern Brazil. The starting point for measuring survival time was the patient’s diagnosis date. Techniques for survival analysis were employed, including the Kaplan-Meier test and Cox’s regression. A mixed-effect model was applied for identifying the associated factors to precocious deaths. Hazard ratio (HR) and odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated. We defined p value

Abstract Background The concentration of under-5 child morbidity and mortality due to pneumonia in developing countries reflects the social inequities. This study aimed to map and assess the spatial risk for hospitalization due to Community-Acquired Pneumonia in children under 5 years of age and its association with vulnerable areas. Methods Ecological study in the city of Ribeirão Preto, state of São Paulo, Brazil. The study population consisted of hospitalized under-5 children, diagnosed with community-acquired pneumonia, in Ribeirão Preto-São Paulo-Brazil, from 2012 to 2013. Data were collected in different databases, by a trained team, between March 2012 and August 2013 and from the 2010 Demographic Census of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The 956 urban census tracts were considered as the units of analysis. The incidence of cases per 10,000 inhabitants was calculated by census tracts during the study period. For the identification of the spatial risk clusters, the Kernel density estimator and the Getis-Ord Gi* technique were performed. Generalized additive models were used to verify the association between areas with social vulnerability and the occurrence of childhood pneumonia. Results The study included 265 children under the age of five, hospitalized due to community-acquired pneumonia. A concentration of cases was identified in the regions with greater social vulnerability (low income, poor housing conditions and homelessness), as well as a lower occurrence of cases in the most developed and economically privileged area of the city. The majority of the children lived in territories served by traditional primary healthcare units, in which the health surveillance and family and community focus are limited. It is important to highlight that the tracts with the highest degrees of vulnerability, such as those identified as high vulnerability (urban) and very high vulnerability (subnormal urban clusters). Conclusions The results contribute to the comprehension of the social factors involved in child hospitalization due to pneumonia, based on the analysis of the spatial distribution. This approach revealed a strategic tool for diagnosing the disparities as well presenting evidences for the planning in health and strength health care system in achieving equity, welfare and social protection of children.

Abstract Background The objective of the study was to identify areas of risk for the appearance of tuberculosis in children and their association with social inequalities in a municipality in southeastern Brazil. Methods Ecological study conducted in Ribeirão Preto, Brazil. To identify areas of spatial risk for tuberculosis in children, we used spatial scanning statistics. To analyze the association of cases of childhood tuberculosis with social vulnerability, we used the Social Vulnerability Index of São Paulo, and four explanatory statistical models were listed. Results There were 96 cases of childhood tuberculosis, of which 90 were geocoded through a process of converting addresses to geographic coordinates. A risk area was identified in the municipality, where children under 15 years old have 3.14 times greater risk of contracting tuberculosis than those living outside this area. The variables identified as risk factors were: number of private and collective households, proportion of children aged 0 to 5 years in the population, proportion of households without per capita income, and the proportion of private households with monthly nominal incomes of up to one quarter of wage minimums. The variables identified as protection factors were the proportion of women under the age of 30 years responsible for the household under and women responsible for the household with an average income over BRL 2344. Conclusion The study showed areas of risk for the occurrence of tuberculosis in children. The study is in line with the End TB Strategy and the 2030 Agenda, which aim to support strategic actions and, therefore, save the lives of children through the systematic, intensified, and comprehensive identification of children with tuberculosis respiratory symptoms in the community.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the top 10 causes of death worldwide; in 2016, over 95% of TB deaths occurred in low- and middle-income countries. Although the incidence and deaths from TB have decreased in Brazil in recent years, the disease has increased in the vulnerable population, whose diagnosis is more delayed and the chances for abandonment and deaths are significantly higher. This study aimed to identify high-risk areas for TB mortality and evidence their social determinants through a sensitive tailored social index, in a context of high inequality in South Brazil. Methods: A multistep statistical methodology was developed, based on spatial clustering, categorical principal components analysis, and receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC). This study considered 138 spatial units in Curitiba, South Brazil. TB deaths (2008–2015) were obtained from the National Information Mortality System and social variables from the Brazilian Human Development Atlas (2013). Results: There were 128 TB deaths recorded in the study: the mortality rate was 0.9/100,000 inhabitants, minimum–maximum: 0–25.51/100,000, with a mean (standard deviation) of 1.07 (2.71), and 78 space units had no deaths. One risk cluster of TB mortality was found in the south region (RR = 2.64, p = 0.01). Considering the social variables, several clusters were identified in the social risk indicator (SRI): income (899.82/1752.94; 0.024), GINI Index (0.41/0.45; 0.010), and overcrowding (25.07/15.39; 0.032). The SRI showed a high capacity to discriminate the TB mortality areas (area under ROC curve 0.865, 95% CI: 0.796–0.934). Conclusions: A powerful risk map (SRI) was developed, allowing tailored and personalised interventions. The south of Curitiba was identified as a high-risk area for TB mortality and the majority of social variables. This methodological approach can be generalised to other areas and/or other public health problems.

Abstract Background Although preventable and curable, tuberculosis (TB) still occurs in poor or developing countries, mainly in metropolitan regions of larger cities. The disease is a serious public health problem, and is directly linked to social issues. We analyzed temporal trend variations in areas at risk for concomitant TB, and characterized the clinical and epidemiological profiles of cases in a hyperendemic municipality in the Amazon region of Brazil. Methods This ecological study was performed in the municipality of Manaus, in northern Brazil. The population comprised cases with concomitant pulmonary and extrapulmonary TB, registered on the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN), between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2018. For risk cluster detection, spatial and spatiotemporal scanning statistical techniques were used. The Spatial Variation in Temporal Trends (SVTT) approach was used to detect and infer clusters for significantly different time trends. Results Between 2009 and 2018, 873 concomitant TB cases were registered in Manaus. By using purely spatial scanning statistics, we identified two risk clusters. The relative risk (RR) of the clusters was 2.21 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.57–2.88; P = 0.0031) and 2.03 (95% CI: 1.58–2.58; P = 0.0029). Using space-time scanning, we identified a risk cluster with an RR of 3.57 (95% CI: 2.84–4.41; P = 0.014), between 2017 and 2018. For SVTT analyses, three clusters with spatial variations were detected in the significant temporal trends: SVTT 1 (P = 0.042), SVTT 2 (P = 0.046) and SVTT 3 (P = 0.036). Conclusions In Brazil, several TB-determining factors such as race/color, gender, low educational level and low income overlap in needy urban areas and communities, demonstrating that it is unlikely to reach the goals, agreed and launched with the END TB Strategy within the deadlines of international agreements, if there is no reduction in existing inequities determinants and risk of illness in the country.

Abstract Background Leprosy is a public health problem and a challenge for endemic countries, especially in their border regions where there are intense migration flows. The study aimed to analyse the dynamics of leprosy, in order to identify areas of risk for the occurrence of the disease and disability and places where this health condition is worsening. Method This ecological study considered the new cases of leprosy reported in the municipality of Foz do Iguaçu from 2003 to 2015. Spatial and spatial-temporal scan statistics were used to identify the risk areas for the occurrence of leprosy, as well as the Getis-Ord Gi and Getis-Ord Gi* methods. Areas of risk for disabilities were identified by the scan statistic and kernel density estimation. Results A total of 840 cases were reported, of which 179 (21.3%) presented Grade 1 or 2 disabilities at the time of diagnosis. Leprosy risk areas were concentrated in the Southern, Eastern and Northeastern Health Districts of the municipality. The cases of Grade 2 disability were observed with higher intensity in regions characterized by high population density and poverty. Conclusion The results of the study have revealed changes in the pattern of areas at risk of leprosy according to the investigated periods. In addition, it was possible to verify disabilities as a condition present in the investigated cases, or that may be related to the late diagnosis of the disease. In the areas of risk identified, patients have reported worse physical disability after diagnostic confirmation, or indicate inadequate clinical examination, reinforcing the need for structuring leprosy control services in a qualified manner.

Abstract Background Tuberculosis (TB) is the infectious disease that kills the most people worldwide. The use of geoepidemiological techniques to demonstrate the dynamics of the disease in vulnerable communities is essential for its control. Thus, this study aimed to identify risk clusters for TB deaths and their variation over time. Methods This ecological study considered cases of TB deaths in residents of Londrina, Brazil between 2008 and 2015. We used standard, isotonic scan statistics for the detection of spatial risk clusters. The Poisson discrete model was adopted with the high and low rates option used for 10, 30 and 50% of the population at risk, with circular format windows and 999 replications considered the maximum cluster size. Getis-Ord Gi* (Gi*) statistics were used to diagnose hotspot areas for TB mortality. Kernel density was used to identify whether the clusters changed over time. Results For the standard version, spatial risk clusters for 10, 30 and 50% of the exposed population were 4.9 (95% CI 2.6–9.4), 3.2 (95% CI: 2.1–5.7) and 3.2 (95% CI: 2.1–5.7), respectively. For the isotonic spatial statistics, the risk clusters for 10, 30 and 50% of the exposed population were 2.8 (95% CI: 1.5–5.1), 2.7 (95% CI: 1.6–4.4), 2.2 (95% CI: 1.4–3.9), respectively. All risk clusters were located in the eastern and northern regions of the municipality. Additionally, through Gi*, hotspot areas were identified in the eastern and western regions. Conclusions There were important risk areas for tuberculosis mortality in the eastern and northern regions of the municipality. Risk clusters for tuberculosis deaths were observed in areas where TB mortality was supposedly a non-problem. The isotonic and Gi* statistics were more sensitive for the detection of clusters in areas with a low number of cases; however, their applicability in public health is still restricted.

ABSTRACT Objectives: to identify risk clusters for the occurrence of tuberculosis and its treatment outcomes. Methods: ecological study, in a city in Maranhão, using data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System. Point density analysis and isotonic scanning techniques were used to identify areas with the highest occurrence of treatment outcomes and identify risk areas for possible tuberculosis cases. Results: most tuberculosis cases occurred in the male, adult, brown-skinned population. Also, most of the reported cases were classified as pulmonary and as new cases that progressed to a cure. The areas with the highest density of cure, death and abandonment are located in the central region of the city. Conclusions: the central region of the urban area of the city, with high demographic density and poor sanitary and socioeconomic conditions, presented a greater cluster of tuberculosis cases.

This study aimed to analyze the discourses of patients who were diagnosed with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, the perception of why they acquired this health condition and barriers to seeking care in a priority city in Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic. This was an exploratory qualitative study, which used the theoretical-methodological framework of the Discourse Analysis of French matrix, guided by the Consolidated Criteria for Reporting Qualitative Research. The study was conducted in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil. Seven participants were interviewed who were undergoing treatment at the time of the interview. The analysis of the participants' discourses allowed the emergence of four discursive blocks: (1) impact of the social determinants in the development of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, (2) barriers to seeking care and difficulties accessing health services, (3) perceptions of the side effects and their impact on multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment, and (4) tuberculosis and COVID-19: a necessary dialogue. Through discursive formations, these revealed the determinants of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Considering the complexity involved in the dynamics of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, advancing in terms of equity in health, that is, in reducing unjust differences, is a challenge for public policies, especially at the current moment in Brazil, which is of accentuated economic, political and social crisis. The importance of psychosocial stressors and the lack of social support should also be highlighted as intermediary determinants of health. The study has also shown the situation of COVID-19, which consists of an important barrier for patients seeking care. Many patients reported fear, insecurity and worry with regard to returning to medical appointments, which might contribute to the worsening of tuberculosis in the scenario under study.

BackgroundTo evaluate the effectiveness of a rapid molecular test for the detection of tuberculosis (TB) and to predict the rates of disease in a municipality of Brazil where TB is endemic.MethodsAn ecological study was carried out in Ribeirão Preto-SP on a population of TB cases notified between 2006 and 2017. Monthly TB incidence rates and the average monthly percentage change (AMPC) were calculated. In order to identify changes in the series, the breakpoint technique was performed; the rates were modelled and predictions of the incidence of TB until 2025 were made.ResultsAMPC showed a fall of 0.69% per month in TB and human immunodeficiency virus (TB-HIV) co-infection, a fall of 0.01% per month in general and lung TB and a fall of 0.33% per month in extrapulmonary TB. With the breakpoint technique, general and pulmonary TB changed in structure in late 2007, and extrapulmonary TB and TB-HIV co-infection changed in structure after 2014, which is considered the cut-off point. The IMA(3) models were adjusted for general and pulmonary TB and TB-HIV co-infection, and the AR(5) models for extrapulmonary TB, and predictions were performed.ConclusionsThe rapid molecular test for TB is the method currently recommended by the WHO for the diagnosis of the disease and its main advantage is to provide faster, more accurate results and to already check for drug resistance. It is necessary that professionals encourage the use of this technology in order to optimize the diagnosis so that the treatment begins as quickly as possible and in an effective way. Only by uniting professionals from all areas with health policies aimed at early case identification and rapid treatment initiation it is possible to break the chain of TB transmission so that its rates decrease and the goals proposed by the WHO are achieved.

Objective To identify the risk areas of deaths due to unspecified pneumonia and tuberculosis (TB) in children, and to identify if there is a relationship between these events with higher TB incidence and social determinants.Methods Ecological study carried out in Brazil. All cases of TB or unspecified pneumonia deaths in children under 5 years of age reported between 2006 and 2016 were included and collected through Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System (Brazil’s electronic database). The Spatial Scan Statistics was used to identify areas at higher risk of dying from this event. The spatial association was verified through the Getis-Ord techniques. The Bivariate Moran Global Index was used to verify the spatial autocorrelation between the two events. To identify the association of TB and pneumonia deaths with endemic areas of pulmonary TB and social determinants, four explanatory statistical models were identified.Results A total of 21 391 cases of pneumonia and 238 cases of TB were identified. Spatial scanning analysis enabled the detection of four clusters of risk for TB (relative risk, RR, between 3.30 and 18.18) and 22 clusters for pneumonia (RR between 1.38 and 5.24). The spatial association of the events was confirmed (z-score 3.74 and 64.34) and spatial autocorrelation between events (Moran Index:0.031 (p=0.001)). The zero-inflated negative binomial distribution was chosen, and an association for both events was identified with the TB incidence rate (OR 5.3, 95% CI 2.85 to 9.84; OR 6.63, 95% CI 5.62 to 7.81), with the Gini Index (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.12 to 2.82; OR 4.22, 95% CI 3.63 to4.92). Primary care coverage showed an inverse association for both events (OR 0.10, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.17; OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.15 to 0.21) for pneumonia). Finally, a family that benefited from the Bolsa Família Programme had an inverse association for deaths from pneumonia (OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.52 to 1.25).Conclusions The results do not just contribute to reduce mortality in children, but mainly contribute to prevent premature deaths through identification of critical areas in Brazil, which is crucial to qualify health surveillance services.

Objetivou-se identificar fatores relacionados, classificar a tendência temporal e identificar áreas com associação espacial do abandono de tratamento para tuberculose em Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo. Estudo ecológico; população composta pelos casos notificados entre 2006 a 2017. Realizou-se o teste qui-quadrado para identificar fatores relacionados. Para a tendência temporal, utilizou-se o método de Prais-Winsten para classificar a tendência temporal do evento e calculada sua porcentagem de variação anual. Para verificar associação espacial, utilizaram-se as técnicas G e Gi*. Foram notificados 146 casos de abandono do tratamento da doença no período; como fatores de risco foi identificado pessoas sem escolaridade, retratamentos pós-abandono e falência prévia; como proteção casos novos identificados pela busca ativa, não ter coinfecção Tuberculose-HIV e não fazer uso de álcool ou drogas. A taxa de abandono apresenta tendência crescente (APC=1,6%; IC95% 0.02–3.48). O estudo evidencia o aumento do abandono de tratamento, contrariando as políticas direcionadas pelo End TB Strategy. Descritores: Tuberculose; Cooperação e Adesão ao Tratamento; Saúde Pública; Análise Espacial.

Resumo Objetivo: analisar a distribuição espacial e a tendência temporal de recursos humanos para o Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) e a Saúde Suplementar no Brasil. Métodos: estudo ecológico realizado nas 27 Unidades da Federação (UFs); utilizaram-se dados das categorias dos médicos, cirurgiões-dentistas, enfermeiros e técnicos de enfermagem, nos anos de 2005 a 2016, coletados do Departamento de Informática do SUS (Datasus); empregou-se regressão de Prais-Winsten para avaliar a tendência temporal. Resultados: evidenciou-se tendência crescente de recursos humanos para a Saúde Suplementar em todas as categorias profissionais, com incremento anual médio de 0,054 (IC95%: 0,031;0,076); para o SUS, observou-se crescimento dos cirurgiões-dentistas e técnicos de enfermagem, com incrementos anuais de 0,008 (IC95%: 0,003;0,011) e 0,066 (IC95%: 0,022;0,087), respectivamente, enquanto na maioria das UFs, enfermeiros apresentaram tendência estacionária, e médicos, tendência estacionária ou decrescente. Conclusão: evidenciaram-se desigualdades na distribuição de recursos humanos, um reflexo da crise do sistema de saúde.

A imunização é reconhecida como uma das intervenções mais bem-sucedidas e custo-efetivas, resultando na erradicação e no controle de diversas doenças em todo o mundo. Todavia, uma preocupante redução na cobertura vacinal tem sido observada no Brasil, trazendo o recrudescimento de algumas doenças até então superadas. Dessa forma, no intuito de realizar um diagnóstico situacional que pondere as diferentes regiões do país e a tendência temporal de cobertura vacinal, o presente estudo teve o objetivo de evidenciar áreas com queda da cobertura vacinal de BCG, poliomielite e tríplice viral no Brasil por meio de um estudo ecológico que coletou informações acerca do número crianças de até um ano de idade imunizadas para essas três vacinas, no período entre 2006 e 2016, por município brasileiro. Os dados foram adquiridos por meio do Departamento de Informática do SUS. Foi realizada uma varredura espacial, analisando as variações espaciais nas tendências temporais de cobertura vacinal. Foi observada uma tendência de redução no número de imunizações no Brasil, com quedas de 0,9%, 1,3% e 2,7% ao ano para BCG, poliomielite e tríplice viral, respectivamente. Ademais, aglomerados significativos com tendências temporais de redução da cobertura vacinal foram verificados em todas as cinco regiões brasileiras. O estudo evidencia uma importante redução na cobertura vacinal nos últimos anos, constatando heterogeneidades consideráveis entre os municípios. Dessa forma, uma atenção singular e planejamento estratégico condizente com as características de cada localidade são necessários para o controle tanto da redução de cobertura vacinal como do reaparecimento de doenças no Brasil.

Abstract Background The World Health Organization (WHO) launched the “End TB Strategy”, which aims to reduce tuberculosis (TB) mortality by 95% by 2035, Brazil has made a commitment to this, however, one challenge is achieving the goal in the border region, where the TB situation is more critical. The proposal was to analyse the spatial mortality due to TB and its socio-economic determinants in the general population, around the border areas of Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina, as well as the temporal trend in this region. Method This ecological study considered the cases of TB deaths of residents of Foz do Iguaçu (BR), with its units of analysis being the census sectors. The standardized mortality rate was calculated for each area. Socioeconomic variables data were obtained from the 2010 Demographic Census of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The scan statistic was applied to calculate the spatial relative risk (RR), considering a 95% confidence interval (CI). Spatial dependence was analysed using the Global Bivariate Moran I and Local Bivariate Moran I (LISA) to test the relationship between the socioeconomic conditions of the urban areas and mortality from TB. Analysis of the temporal trend was also performed using the Prais-Winsten test. Results A total of 74 cases of TB death were identified, of which 53 (71.6%) were male and 51 (68.9%) people of white skin colour. The mortality rate ranged from 0.28 to 22.75 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. A spatial relative risk area was identified, RR = 5.07 (95% CI 1.79–14.30). Mortality was associated with: proportion of people of brown skin colour (I: 0.0440, p = 0.033), income (low income I: − 0.0611, p = 0.002; high income I: − 0.0449, p = 0.026) and density of residents (3 and 4 residents, I: 0.0537, p = 0.007; 10 or more residents, I: − 0.0390, p = 0.035). There was an increase in the mortality rate in people of brown skin colour (6.1%; 95% CI = 0.029, 0.093). Conclusion Death due to TB was associated with income, race resident density and social conditions. Although the TB mortality rate is stationary in the general population, it is increasing among people of brown skin colour.

Abstract Background In Brazil, people still fall ill and die from tuberculosis (TB), and this can be explained by the significant impasse in the equity of distribution of therapeutic resources to the population as a whole. The aim was to identify geographical areas which have shown progress in terms of equity (of income, schooling and urban occupancy) and test its effect on mortality from TB in a municipality of southeast Brazil. Methods It is an ecological study considering TB as the basic cause for deaths registered between 2006 and 2013 on the Mortality Information System and other variables obtained through the Demographic Census of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (2010). The geographical area for analysis comprised the areas of coverage of the health services. Social indicators have been constructed through the Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The cases were geocoded and the annual mortality rate from TB was calculated with smoothing using the local empirical Bayesian method. Multiple linear regression was then performed. There was confirmation of the existence of spatial dependence of residue through the application of the Global Moran I test, and application of the Models with Global Spatial Effects, to identify the best standard of spatial regression. Results The mortality rates ranged from 0.00 to 2.8 deaths per 100,000 people, per year. In the PCA, three indicators were constructed, and designated as indicators of income, social inequality, and social equity. In multiple linear regression, the indicator of social equity was statistically significant (P

Abstract Background Stigma associated with tuberculosis (TB) has been an object of interest in several regions of the world. The behaviour presented by patients as a result of social discrimination has contributed to delays in diagnosis and the abandonment of treatment, leading to an increase in the cases of TB and drug resistance. The identification of populations affected by stigma and its measurement can be assessed with the use of valid and reliable instruments developed or adapted to the target culture. This aim of this study was to analyse the initial psychometric properties of the Tuberculosis-Related Stigma scale in Brazil, for TB patients. Methods The Tuberculosis-Related Stigma scale is a specific scale for measuring stigma associated with TB, originally validated in Thailand. It presents two dimensions to be assessed, namely Community perspectives toward tuberculosis and Patient perspectives toward tuberculosis. The first has 11 items regarding the behaviour of the community in relation to TB, and the second is made up of 12 items related to feelings such as fear, guilt and sorrow in coping with the disease. A pilot test was conducted with 83 TB patients, in order to obtain the initial psychometric properties of the scale in the Brazilian Portuguese version, enabling simulation of the field study. Results As regards its psychometric properties, the scale presented acceptable internal consistency for its dimensions, with values ≥0.70, the absence of floor and ceiling effects, which is favourable for the property of scale responsiveness, satisfactory converging validity for both dimensions, with values over 0.30 for initial studies, and diverging validity, with adjustment values different from 100%. Conclusion The results found show that the Tuberculosis-Related Stigma scale can be a valid and reliable instrument for the Brazilian context.

Objective: To analyze the coverage of directly observed treatment according to the risk of tuberculosis/human immunodeficiency virus coinfection and unfavorable outcomes. Methods: Ecological study with secondary data related to 10,389 new cases of coinfection notified in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, from 2010 to 2015. They were analyzed by applying local Moran’s index, spatial scan statistics, and hierarchical Bayesian models. Results: The São Paulo metropolitan area and Baixada Santista concentrate the highest incidence of coinfection and treatment default. Low coverage of directly observed treatment was associated with areas at risk for the coinfection and higher withdrawal risk. The city of São Paulo, the coastal region, and the Ribeirão Preto area showed a higher incidence of deaths, which did not show an association with the coverage of directly observed treatment. Conclusion: Low coverage of directly observed treatment was associated with a higher risk of coinfection and treatment default.

ABSTRACT Objectives: To describe the epidemiological profile of mortality due to tuberculosis (TB), to analyze the spatial pattern of these deaths and to investigate the temporal trend in mortality due to tuberculosis in Northeast Brazil. Methods: An ecological study based on secondary mortality data. Deaths due to TB were included in the study. Descriptive statistics were calculated and gross mortality rates were estimated and smoothed by the Local Empirical Bayesian Method. Prais-Winsten’s regression was used to analyze the temporal trend in the TB mortality coefficients. The Kernel density technique was used to analyze the spatial distribution of TB mortality. Results: Tuberculosis was implicated in 236 deaths. The burden of tuberculosis deaths was higher amongst males, single people and people of mixed ethnicity, and the mean age at death was 51 years. TB deaths were clustered in the East, West and North health districts, and the tuberculosis mortality coefficient remained stable throughout the study period. Conclusions: Analyses of the spatial pattern and temporal trend in mortality revealed that certain areas have higher TB mortality rates, and should therefore be prioritized in public health interventions targeting the disease.

Brazil is the only country in Latin America that has adopted a national health system. This causes differences in access to health among Latin American countries and induces noticeable migration to Brazilian regions to seek healthcare. This phenomenon has led to difficulties in the control and elimination of diseases related to poverty, such as leprosy. The aim of this study was to evaluate social determinants and their relationship with the risk of leprosy, as well as to examine the temporal trend of its occurrence in a Brazilian municipality located on the tri-border area between Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina.This ecological study investigated newly-diagnosed cases of leprosy between 2003 and 2015. Exploratory analysis of the data was performed through descriptive statistics. For spatial analysis, geocoding of the data was performed using spatial scan statistic techniques to obtain the Relative Risk (RR) for each census tract, with their respective 95% confidence intervals calculated. The Bivariate Moran I test, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models were applied to analyze the spatial relationships of social determinants and leprosy risk. The temporal trend of the annual coefficient of new cases was obtained through the Prais-Winsten regression. A standard error of 5% was considered statistically significant (p < 0.05).Of the 840 new cases identified in the study, there was a predominance of females (n = 427, 50.8%), of white race/color (n = 685, 81.6%), age range 15 to 59 years (n = 624, 74.3%), and incomplete elementary education (n = 504, 60.0%). The results obtained from multivariate analysis revealed that the proportion of households with monthly nominal household income per capita greater than 1 minimum wage (β = 0.025, p = 0.036) and people of brown race (β = -0.101, p = 0.024) were statistically-significantly associated with risk of illness due to leprosy. These results also confirmed that social determinants and risk of leprosy were significantly spatially non-stationary. Regarding the temporal trend, a decrease of 4% (95% CI [-0.053, -0.033], p = 0.000) per year was observed in the rate of detection of new cases of leprosy.The social determinants income and race/color were associated with the risk of leprosy. The study's highlighting of these social determinants can contribute to the development of public policies directed toward the elimination of leprosy in the border region.

This study aimed to verify tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality behavior in areas covered by the Family Health Strategy and Bolsa Família Program, with or with no income inequality. This is an ecological study of the 26 Brazilian federal states and the Federal District. We used univariate, multivariate and spatial analyzes. We calculated the univariate analysis, the measure of position (median) and the measure of dispersion (amplitude) of the variables. In the multivariate analysis, seven groups were identified through hierarchical grouping analysis. The thematic maps construction showed a heterogeneous distribution between the groups due to the specific characteristics. The study evidenced the epidemiological TB reality in Brazil and its behavior in areas covered by the Family Health Strategy and Bolsa Família Program. No differences were observed in incidence and mortality when coverage of these programs was satisfactory, which evidences the disease relation to other determinants.

BACKGROUND:Although the detection rate is decreasing, the proportion of new cases with WHO grade 2 disability (G2D) is increasing, creating concern among policy makers and the Brazilian government. This study aimed to identify spatial clustering of leprosy and classify high-risk areas in a major leprosy cluster using the SatScan method. METHODS:Data were obtained including all leprosy cases diagnosed between January 2006 and December 2013. In addition to the clinical variable, information was also gathered regarding the G2D of the patient at diagnosis and after treatment. The Scan Spatial statistic test, developed by Kulldorff e Nagarwalla, was used to identify spatial clustering and to measure the local risk (Relative Risk-RR) of leprosy. Maps considering these risks and their confidence intervals were constructed. RESULTS:A total of 434 cases were identified, including 188 (43.31%) borderline leprosy and 101 (23.28%) lepromatous leprosy cases. There was a predominance of males, with ages ranging from 15 to 59 years, and 51 patients (11.75%) presented G2D. Two significant spatial clusters and three significant spatial-temporal clusters were also observed. The main spatial cluster (p = 0.000) contained 90 census tracts, a population of approximately 58,438 inhabitants, detection rate of 22.6 cases per 100,000 people and RR of approximately 3.41 (95%CI = 2.721-4.267). Regarding the spatial-temporal clusters, two clusters were observed, with RR ranging between 24.35 (95%CI = 11.133-52.984) and 15.24 (95%CI = 10.114-22.919). CONCLUSION:These findings could contribute to improvements in policies and programming, aiming for the eradication of leprosy in Brazil. The Spatial Scan statistic test was found to be an interesting resource for health managers and healthcare professionals to map the vulnerability of areas in terms of leprosy transmission risk and areas of underreporting.

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the spatial distribution of avoidable hospitalizations due to tuberculosis in the municipality of Ribeirao Preto, SP, Brazil, and to identify spatial and space-time clusters for the risk of occurrence of these events. METHODS This is a descriptive, ecological study that considered the hospitalizations records of the Hospital Information System of residents of Ribeirao Preto, SP, Southeastern Brazil, from 2006 to 2012. Only the cases with recorded addresses were considered for the spatial analyses, and they were also geocoded. We resorted to Kernel density estimation to identify the densest areas, local empirical Bayes rate as the method for smoothing the incidence rates of hospital admissions, and scan statistic for identifying clusters of risk. Softwares ArcGis 10.2, TerraView 4.2.2, and SaTScanTM were used in the analysis. RESULTS We identified 169 hospitalizations due to tuberculosis. Most were of men (n = 134; 79.2%), averagely aged 48 years (SD = 16.2). The predominant clinical form was the pulmonary one, which was confirmed through a microscopic examination of expectorated sputum (n = 66; 39.0%). We geocoded 159 cases (94.0%). We observed a non-random spatial distribution of avoidable hospitalizations due to tuberculosis concentrated in the northern and western regions of the municipality. Through the scan statistic, three spatial clusters for risk of hospitalizations due to tuberculosis were identified, one of them in the northern region of the municipality (relative risk [RR] = 3.4; 95%CI 2.7–4,4); the second in the central region, where there is a prison unit (RR = 28.6; 95%CI 22.4–36.6); and the last one in the southern region, and area of protection for hospitalizations (RR = 0.2; 95%CI 0.2–0.3). We did not identify any space-time clusters. CONCLUSIONS The investigation showed priority areas for the control and surveillance of tuberculosis, as well as the profile of the affected population, which shows important aspects to be considered in terms of management and organization of health care services targeting effectiveness in primary health care.

In Brazil, leprosy has been listed among the health priorities since 2006, in a plan known as the "Pact for life" (Pacto pela Vida). It is the sole country on the American continent that has not reached the global goal of disease elimination. Local health systems face many challenges to achieve this global goal. The study aimed to investigate how patients perceive the local health system's performance to eliminate leprosy and whether these perceptions differ in terms of the patients' income.A cross-sectional study was conducted in Londrina, State of Paraná, Brazil. Interviews were performed with the leprosy patients. The local health system was assessed through a structured and adapted tool, considering the domains judged as good quality of health care. The authors used univariate, bivariate and multivariate analyses. One hundred and nineteen patients were recruited for the study, 50.4% (60) of them were male, 54.0% (64) were between 42 and 65 years old and 66.3% (79) had finished elementary school. The results showed that patients used the Primary Health Care service near their place of residence but did not receive the leprosy diagnosis there. Important advances of this health system were verified for the elimination of leprosy, verifying protocols for good care delivery to the leprosy patients, but these services did not develop collective health actions and did not engage the patients' family members and community.The patients' difficulty was observed to have access to the diagnosis and treatment at health services near their homes. Leprosy care is provided at the specialized level, where the patients strongly bond with the teams. The care process is individual, with limited perspectives of integration among the health services for the purpose of case management and social mobilization of the community to the leprosy problem.

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Tuberculosis (TB) is the most common infectious disease in the world. We aimed to analyze the spatial risk of tuberculosis mortality and to verify associations in high-risk areas with social vulnerability. METHODS: This was an ecological study. The scan statistic was used to detect areas at risk, and the Bivariate Moran Index was used to verify relationships between variables. RESULTS: High-risk areas of tuberculosis mortality were statistically significantly associated with domain 2 of the Social Vulnerability Index (I=0.010; p=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence regarding areas with high risk and that vulnerability is a determinant of TB mortality.

Resumo OBJETIVO: identificar aglomerados espaciais e espaço-temporais de risco para tuberculose e caracterizá-los segundo a vulnerabilidade social. MÉTODOS: estudo ecológico que considerou os casos de tuberculose no município de São Carlos-SP, no período de 2008 a 2013; aplicou-se a técnica de scan espacial, computando-se o risco relativo (RR) e intervalo de confiança de 95% (IC95%:); utilizou-se o Índice Paulista de Vulnerabilidade Social (IPVS) para caracterização dos aglomerados. RESULTADOS: foram identificados três clusters, dois de alto risco (RR=7,44; IC95%: 4,73;11,65 / RR=6,94; IC95%: 3,82;12,57) e um de baixo risco (RR=0,3; IC95%: 0,35;0,96), todos com vulnerabilidade muito baixa e média; na análise espaço-temporal, foram dois clusters de alto risco (RR=12,6; IC95%: 7,07;19,58 / RR=11,78; IC95%: 6,00;21,47), com os mesmos setores da análise espacial e classificação de vulnerabilidade social. CONCLUSÃO: os resultados permitem o direcionamento de ações específicas de controle a partir da detecção precoce dos casos em locais com maior transmissibilidade da tuberculose.

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE to analyze the temporal trend, identify the factors related and elaborate a predictive model for unfavorable treatment outcomes for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). METHODS Retrospective cohort study with all cases diagnosed with MDR-TB between the years 2006 and 2015 in the state of São Paulo. The data were collected from the state system of TB cases notifications (TB-WEB). The temporal trend analyzes of treatment outcomes was performed through the Prais-Winsten analysis. In order to verify the factors related to the unfavorable outcomes, abandonment, death with basic cause TB and treatment failure, the binary logistic regression was used. Pictorial representations of the factors related to treatment outcome and their prognostic capacity through the nomogram were elaborated. RESULTS Both abandonment and death have a constant temporal tendency, whereas the failure showed it as decreasing. Regarding the risk factors for such outcomes, using illicit drugs doubled the odds for abandonment and death. Besides that, being diagnosed in emergency units or during hospitalizations was a risk factor for death. On the contrary, having previous multidrug-resistant treatments reduced the odds for the analyzed outcomes by 33%. The nomogram presented a predictive model with 65% accuracy for dropouts, 70% for deaths and 80% for failure. CONCLUSIONS The modification of the current model of care is an essential factor for the prevention of unfavorable outcomes. Through predictive models, as presented in this study, it is possible to develop patient-centered actions, considering their risk factors and increasing the chances for cure.

Objetivo. Identificar os fatores correlacionados à incidência e mortalidade por COVID-19 e verificar situações de sindemia em escala global. Métodos. Realizou-se um estudo ecológico de casos e óbitos confirmados de COVID-19 a partir de informações coletadas do European Center for Disease Prevention and Control em 2019 e 2020. Para a caracterização dos países, utilizaram-se indicadores do Banco Mundial e Worldometer Coronavirus. Foram realizadas análises descritivas e de correlação entre as variáveis independentes para posteriormente realizar o modelo de regressão linear múltipla, com o objetivo de identificar os fatores correlacionados à incidência e mortalidade por COVID-19. Resultados. Obtiveram-se dados de 185 países. A média da incidência dos casos foi de 16 482/mil habitantes, enquanto a média para mortalidade por COVID-19 foi de 291/mil habitantes, sendo América do Norte e Leste Asiático e Pacífico as regiões que apresentaram maiores e menores índices, respectivamente. Identificouse correlação positiva da taxa de incidência com proporção da população com idade de 15 a 64 anos, população urbana, desigualdade conforme Índice de Gini e com seis das sete regiões analisadas (exceto Leste Asiático e Pacífico). A taxa de mortalidade apresentou correlação negativa com a população de 0 a 14 anos e positiva com população urbana, desigualdade conforme índice de Gini e todas as regiões analisadas, exceto Leste Asiático e Pacífico. Conclusões. A morbimortalidade da COVID-19 esteve correlacionada à carga de condições crônicas, ao envelhecimento da população e à baixa capacidade dos serviços de saúde para testagem e oferta de leitos hospitalares, quadro agravado em países ou regiões com elevada desigualdade social, caracterizando uma situação de sindemia.