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JET experiments using the fuel mixture envisaged for fusion power plants, deuterium and tritium (D–T), provide a unique opportunity to validate existing D–T fusion power prediction capabilities in support of future device design and operation preparation. The 2021 JET D–T experimental campaign has achieved D–T fusion powers sustained over 5 s in ITER-relevant conditions i.e. operation with the baseline or hybrid scenario in the full metallic wall. In preparation of the 2021 JET D–T experimental campaign, extensive D–T predictive modelling was carried out with several assumptions based on D discharges. To improve the validity of ITER D–T predictive modelling in the future, it is important to use the input data measured from 2021 JET D–T discharges in the present core predictive modelling, and to specify the accuracy of the D–T fusion power prediction in comparison with the experiments. This paper reports on the validation of the core integrated modelling with TRANSP, JINTRAC, and ETS coupled with a quasilinear turbulent transport model (Trapped Gyro Landau Fluid or QualLiKiz) against the measured data in 2021 JET D–T discharges. Detailed simulation settings and the heating and transport models used are described. The D–T fusion power calculated with the interpretive TRANSP runs for 38 D–T discharges (12 baseline and 26 hybrid discharges) reproduced the measured values within 20 $\%$ . This indicates the additional uncertainties, that could result from the measurement error bars in kinetic profiles, impurity contents and neutron rates, and also from the beam-thermal fusion reaction modelling, are less than $20\%$ in total. The good statistical agreement confirms that we have the capability to accurately calculate the D–T fusion power if correct kinetic profiles are predicted, and indicates that any larger deviation of the D–T fusion power prediction from the measured fusion power could be attributed to the deviation of the predicted kinetic profiles from the measured kinetic profiles in these plasma scenarios. Without any posterior adjustment of the simulation settings, the ratio of predicted D–T fusion power to the measured fusion power was found as 65%–96% for the D–T baseline and 81%–97% for D–T hybrid discharge. Possible reasons for the lower D–T prediction are discussed and future works to improve the fusion power prediction capability are suggested. The D–T predictive modelling results have also been compared to the predictive modelling of the counterpart D discharges, where the key engineering parameters are similar. Features in the predicted kinetic profiles of D–T discharges such as underprediction of n _e are also found in the prediction results of the counterpart D discharges, and it leads to similar levels of the normalized neutron rate prediction between the modelling results of D–T and the counterpart D discharges. This implies that the credibility of D–T fusion power prediction could be a priori estimated by the prediction quality of the preparatory D discharges, which will be attempted before actual D–T experiments.

Understanding the details of the correlation between time series is an essential step on the route to assessing the causal relation between systems. Traditional statistical indicators, such as the Pearson correlation coefficient and the mutual information, have some significant limitations. More recently, transfer entropy has been proposed as a powerful tool to understand the flow of information between signals. In this paper, the comparative advantages of transfer entropy, for determining the time horizon of causal influence, are illustrated with the help of synthetic data. The technique has been specifically revised for the analysis of synchronization experiments. The investigation of experimental data from thermonuclear plasma diagnostics proves the potential and limitations of the developed approach.

The present paper is dedicated to the study of the discrepancies encountered in electron temperature (Te) measurements carried out with electron cyclotron emission (ECE) and Thomson scattering (TS) diagnostics in the core of the JET tokamak. A large database of discharges has been collected, including high-performance scenarios performed with deuterium only and deuterium–tritium mixtures. Discrepancies have been found between core Te measurements taken with an X-mode ECE interferometer (TECE) and a LIDAR TS system (TLID) for T e > 5 keV. Depending on the plasma scenario, TECE has been found to be systematically higher or lower than TLID. Discrepancies have also been observed between the peaks of the ECE spectrum in the second (X2) and third (X3) harmonic domains, even in high optical thickness conditions. These discrepancies can be interpreted as evidence of the presence of non-Maxwellian features in the electron energy distribution function (EEDF). In order to investigate the relation between the shape of the EEDF and the measured discrepancies, a model for bipolar perturbations of Maxwellian EEDF has been developed. The model allows analytical calculations of ECE absorption and emission coefficients; hence, the comparison of modeled ECE spectra with experimental data. The different experimental results observed for the various JET scenarios have been found to be qualitatively reproducible by adapting the model parameters, suggesting that bipolar distortions of the bulk EEDF could play a role in giving rise to the reported discrepancies between ECE and TS measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

JET experiments using the fuel mixture envisaged for fusion power plants, deuterium and tritium (D–T), provide a unique opportunity to validate existing D–T fusion power prediction capabilities in support of future device design and operation preparation. The 2021 JET D–T experimental campaign has achieved D–T fusion powers sustained over 5 s in ITER-relevant conditions i.e. operation with the baseline or hybrid scenario in the full metallic wall. In preparation of the 2021 JET D–T experimental campaign, extensive D–T predictive modelling was carried out with several assumptions based on D discharges. To improve the validity of ITER D–T predictive modelling in the future, it is important to use the input data measured from 2021 JET D–T discharges in the present core predictive modelling, and to specify the accuracy of the D–T fusion power prediction in comparison with the experiments. This paper reports on the validation of the core integrated modelling with TRANSP, JINTRAC, and ETS coupled with a quasilinear turbulent transport model (Trapped Gyro Landau Fluid or QualLiKiz) against the measured data in 2021 JET D–T discharges. Detailed simulation settings and the heating and transport models used are described. The D–T fusion power calculated with the interpretive TRANSP runs for 38 D–T discharges (12 baseline and 26 hybrid discharges) reproduced the measured values within 20 %. This indicates the additional uncertainties, that could result from the measurement error bars in kinetic profiles, impurity contents and neutron rates, and also from the beam-thermal fusion reaction modelling, are less than 20 % in total. The good statistical agreement confirms that we have the capability to accurately calculate the D–T fusion power if correct kinetic profiles are predicted, and indicates that any larger deviation of the D–T fusion power prediction from the measured fusion power could be attributed to the deviation of the predicted kinetic profiles from the measured kinetic profiles in these plasma scenarios. Without any posterior adjustment of the simulation settings, the ratio of predicted D–T fusion power to the measured fusion power was found as 65%–96% for the D–T baseline and 81%–97% for D–T hybrid discharge. Possible reasons for the lower D–T prediction are discussed and future works to improve the fusion power prediction capability are suggested. The D–T predictive modelling results have also been compared to the predictive modelling of the counterpart D discharges, where the key engineering parameters are similar. Features in the predicted kinetic profiles of D–T discharges such as underprediction of ne are also found in the prediction results of the counterpart D discharges, and it leads to similar levels of the normalized neutron rate prediction between the modelling results of D–T and the counterpart D discharges. This implies that the credibility of D–T fusion power prediction could be a priori estimated by the prediction quality of the preparatory D discharges, which will be attempted before actual D–T experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Experimental analysis of two couples of pulses in the range of input power of 26–32 MW, shows that addition of pellet throughput to high gas dosing pulses does not modify the plasma energy, but leads to better conditions as far as the tungsten concentration and core radiation are concerned. Significantly decreasing the gas dosing with addition of high pellet throughput causes the increase of plasma energy, but the W concentration increases from 5.2 × 10−5 to 6.9 × 10−5 and the core radiation from 7.5 to 11 MW. From the numerical results of the self‐consistent core‐SOL COREDIV code two mechanisms appear to be responsible for the observed different W concentrations: the core residence time of W, which is related to the energy and particle confinement time, and the divertor impurity screening efficiency, dependent on the electron density and on the perpendicular transport coefficient in the SOL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The high confinement mode (H-mode) is considered the optimal regime for the production of energy through nuclear fusion for industrial purposes since it allows to increase the energy confinement time of the plasma roughly by a factor of two. Consequently, it has been selected at the moment as the standard scenario for the next generation of devices, such as ITER. However, pressure-driven edge instabilities, known as edge localized modes (ELMs), are a distinct feature of this plasma regime. Their extrapolated thermal and particle peak loads on the plasma-facing components (PFC) of the next generation of devices are expected to be so high as to damage such structures, compromising the normal operations of the reactors themselves. Consequently, the induced loads have to be controlled; this can be achieved by mitigating ELMs. A possibility then lays in increasing the ELMs frequency to lower the loads on the PFCs. As already demonstrated at JET, the pellet pacing of ELMs is considered one of the most promising techniques for such scope, and its optimization is therefore of great interest for present and future operations of nuclear fusion facilities. In this work, we suggest a method to access primary pieces of information to perform statistics, assess and characterize the pacing efficiency. The method, tested on JET data, is based on the clustering (k-means) of convoluted signals, using so-called spectrogram cross-correlation, between the measured pellets and ELMs time traces. Results have also been obtained by taking advantage of a new type of diagnostic for measuring the ELMs dynamic, based on synthetic diamond sensors, faster than the standard spectroscopic cameras used at JET. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reactor grade plasmas are likely to be fuelled by pellet injection. This technique transiently perturbs the profiles, driving the density profile hollow and flattening the edge temperature profile. After the pellet perturbation, the density and temperature profiles relax towards their quasi-steady-state shape. Microinstabilities influence plasma confinement and will play a role in determining the evolution of the profiles in pellet fuelled plasmas. In this paper we present the microstability analysis of pellet fuelled H-mode MAST plasmas. Taking advantage of the unique capabilities of the MAST Thomson scattering system and the possibility of synchronizing the eight lasers with the pellet injection, we were able to measure the evolution of the post-pellet electron density and temperature profiles with high temporal and spatial resolution. These profiles, together with ion temperature profiles measured using a charge exchange diagnostic, were used to produce equilibria suitable for microstability analysis of the equilibrium changes induced by pellet injection. This analysis, carried out using the local gyrokinetic code GS2, reveals that the microstability properties are extremely sensitive to the rapid and large transient excursions of the density and temperature profiles, which also change collisionality and βe significantly in the region most strongly affected by the pellet ablation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The JET exploitation plan foresees D–T operations in 2020 (DTE2). With respect to the first D–T campaign in 1997 (DTE1), when JET was equipped with a carbon wall, the experiments will be conducted in presence of a beryllium–tungsten ITER-like wall and will benefit from an extended and improved set of diagnostics and higher additional heating power (32 MW neutral beam injection  +  8 MW ion cyclotron resonance heating). There are several challenges presented by operations with the new wall: a general deterioration of the pedestal confinement; the risk of heavy impurity accumulation in the core, which, if not controlled, can cause the radiative collapse of the discharge; the requirement to protect the divertor from excessive heat loads, which may damage it permanently. Therefore, an intense activity of scenario development has been undertaken at JET during the last three years to overcome these difficulties and prepare the plasmas needed to demonstrate stationary high fusion performance and clear alpha particle effects. The paper describes the status and main achievements of this scenario development activity, both from an operational and plasma physics point of view. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The operation of a tokamak designed to test the sustainability of a thermonuclear grade plasma like the international tokamak experimental reactor (ITER) presents several challenges. Among them is the necessity of fuelling the plasma to reach the density required to generate enough fusion power to achieve and, at the same time, to avoid excessive power loads at the divertor targets (beyond 10 MW m). Whether this goal is achievable or not depends on the details of the fuelling scheme, of the atomic species that are injected into the plasma, of the power radiation pattern in the scrape-off layer and in the divertor, of the additional heating schemes and of the transport mechanisms at work in the core and near the edge of the plasma. In this study we present, for different operational scenarios, the results of an integrated modelling approach to the problem taking into account all the different aspects of it, albeit with some limitations and simplifications discussed in the paper. The tool adopted for our simulations is the JINTRAC suite of codes, which can simulate in an integrated fashion the transport of particles and heat in different regions of the plasma. Within the limitation of our modelling our assessment is that, by carefully tuning the gas fuelling and impurity seeding, it is indeed possible for ITER to achieve and at the same time maintain acceptable divertor power loads. We also investigate the sensitivity of this result to some of the uncertainties in the modelling assumptions underlying the simulations presented in the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the details of the correlation between time series is an essential step on the route to assessing the causal relation between systems. Traditional statistical indicators, such as the Pearson correlation coefficient and the mutual information, have some significant limitations. More recently, transfer entropy has been proposed as a powerful tool to understand the flow of information between signals. In this paper, the comparative advantages of transfer entropy, for determining the time horizon of causal influence, are illustrated with the help of synthetic data. The technique has been specifically revised for the analysis of synchronization experiments. The investigation of experimental data from thermonuclear plasma diagnostics proves the potential and limitations of the developed approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Magnetic reconnection occurred during merging-compression plasma start-up in the Mega Amp Spherical Tokamak (MAST), resulting in the prompt acceleration of substantial numbers of ions and electrons to highly suprathermal energies. Accelerated field-aligned ions (deuterons and protons) were detected using a neutral particle analyser at energies up to about 20 keV during merging in early MAST pulses, while nonthermal electrons have been detected indirectly in more recent pulses through microwave bursts. However no increase in soft x-ray emission was observed until later in the merging phase, by which time strong electron heating had been detected through Thomson scattering measurements. A test-particle code CUEBIT is used to model ion acceleration in the presence of an inductive toroidal electric field with a prescribed spatial profile and temporal evolution based on Hall-MHD simulations of the merging process. The simulations yield particle distributions with properties similar to those observed experimentally, including strong field alignment of the fast ions and the acceleration of protons to higher energies than deuterons. Particle-in-cell modelling of a plasma containing a dilute field-aligned suprathermal electron component suggests that at least some of the microwave bursts can be attributed to the anomalous Doppler instability driven by anisotropic fast electrons, which do not produce measurable enhancements in soft x-ray emission either because they are insufficiently energetic or because the nonthermal bremsstrahlung emissivity during this phase of the pulse is below the detection threshold. There is no evidence of runaway electron acceleration during merging, possibly due to the presence of three-dimensional field perturbations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The empirical Bohm–gyro-Bohm (BgB) transport model implemented in the JETTO code is used to predictively simulate the purely Ohmic (OH), L-mode current-ramp-down phase of three JET hybrid pulses, which combine two different ramp rates with two different electron densities (at the beginning of the ramp). The modelling is discussed, namely the strategy to reduce as much as possible the number of free parameters used to benchmark the model predictions against the experimental results. Hence, keeping the gas puffing rate as measured whilst controlling the line-averaged electron density via the recycling coefficient (which in the modelling is taken at the separatrix instead of the wall), one of the many possible ways to fix the total particle source, it is shown that the BgB model reproduces well the experimental data, as far as both average quantities (plasma internal inductance and volume-averaged electron temperature) and profiles (electron density and temperature) are concerned, with relative errors remaining mostly below . The sensitivenesses with respect to the recycling coefficient, the ion effective charge, the energy of neutrals entering the plasma through the separatrix and the need to introduce a particle pinch are assessed; the necessity for a proper sawtooth model if experimental results are to be reproduced is also shown. The strong non-linear coupling in a OH plasma between density, temperature and current (essentially via interplay between the power-balance equation, Joule’s heating with a temperature-dependent resistivity and the dependence of BgB transport coefficients on profile gradients) is put in evidence and analyzed in light of modelling results. It is still inferred from the modelling that the real value of the recycling coefficient at the separatrix (basically, the so-called fuelling efficiency times the actual recycling coefficient at the wall) must become close to one in the final stages of the discharges, when the gas puffing is switched off and so recycling comes to be the only source of particles. If the wall recycling remains close to one (as standard for tokamaks), this may indicate that the fuelling efficiency also approaches unity, apparently consistent with the observed fact that the plasma is pushed towards the machine wall at the end of the current ramps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fast visible imaging of Mega-Ampere Spherical Tokamak plasmas during injection of refueling pellets of frozen deuterium can sometimes vividly reveal their internal magnetic structure. Concentrated deposition of particles around the flux surface with unit value of field-line helicity results in locally increased bremsstrahlung emission which illuminates this whole surface or, occasionally, a single flux tube within it. Analysis of such images could be exploited to check equilibrium reconstruction models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]