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Using the registration-based samples and disposition codes of state-level pre-election telephone polls conducted by the National Election Pool as part of the National Exit Poll in 12 states, we test whether likely Democrats were more likely to cooperate with the National Exit Poll than likely Republicans and independents. Using information about both respondents and nonrespondents, we find that Democrats are more likely to cooperate with telephone interviewers than Republicans and independents by 3 and 6 percentage points, respectively, even after controlling for individual and geographic features plausibly related to nonresponse (e.g. age, gender, race, urban/rural, community support for President Trump, and effects of COVID-19). Equalizing the partisan cooperation rate when post-stratifying to account for the partisan differences in cooperation decreases the average polling error on the margin of victory by 4 percentage points in the polls we examine, but sizable errors remain in critical swing states because of within-party differences in who responds and/or errors in the available partisanship measures in the voter file. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the end of the Second World War there have been profound changes in economic growth and employment in western industrialized countries. Labor forces have grown, including increases in the [...]

The marked growth in the number of immigrants annually in the US since the 1980s was accompanied by a sharp growth in anti-immigrant feelings of Americans. The negative attitudes are partly due to reductions in social budgets. Some immigration trends in California are discussed.

The U.S. has experienced a steady increase in immigration since the end of World War II, with dramatic growth after the 1965 passage of the Hart-Celler Amendments to the Immigration and Nationality Act, resulting in a change from 380,000 legal immigrants per year in the 1960s to 950,000 a year in the 1980s. The sharp increase in the number of immigrants during the last decade was accompanied by a distinct increase in negative attitudes toward immigration levels. Although public opinion has been split on legal immigration, the vast majority of Americans are concerned about illegal immigrants and wish to stop their entry into the U.S. While public opinion has not treated all foreigners, there are noticeable differences in opinion toward the level of European immigration as contrasted with immigration from Asia and Latin American countries. Americans, would therefore, hold various nationalities in unequal esteem. As other have observed, Americans seem to distinguish between immigration at the national level and immigrants at the personal level. Another observation is the fact that public opinion toward immigration seems to be related to the general economic climate. Americans have shown strong strong economic concerns over immigration, but cultural issues also loom large. Debates over immigrants' impact on American culture focuses on the use of language. Cultural issues combined with economic concerns described above, appear to have depressed Americans' approval of the way federal government addresses immigration.

Presents information on the theory of Cognitive Madisonianism as it is accountable for voters decisions in the ticket-splitting and for the existence of divided government of 1992. Definition of Cognitive Madisonianism; Methodology used from the 1992 American National Election Study; Description of the results.

Although polling is not irredeemably broken, changes in technology and society create challenges that, if not addressed well, can threaten the quality of election polls and other important surveys on topics such as the economy. This essay describes some of these challenges and recommends remediations to protect the integrity of all kinds of survey research, including election polls. These 12 recommendations specify ways that survey researchers, and those who use polls and other public-oriented surveys, can increase the accuracy and trustworthiness of their data and analyses. Many of these recommendations align practice with the scientific norms of transparency, clarity, and self-correction. The transparency recommendations focus on improving disclosure of factors that affect the nature and quality of survey data. The clarity recommendations call for more precise use of terms such as "representative sample" and clear description of survey attributes that can affect accuracy. The recommendation about correcting the record urges the creation of a publicly available, professionally curated archive of identified technical problems and their remedies. The paper also calls for development of better benchmarks and for additional research on the effects of panel conditioning. Finally, the authors suggest ways to help people who want to use or learn from survey research understand the strengths and limitations of surveys and distinguish legitimate and problematic uses of these methods., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences.)