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Introduction Sciatica is a common condition and is associated with higher levels of pain, disability, poorer quality of life, and increased use of health resources compared with low back pain alone. Although many patients recover, a third develop persistent sciatica symptoms. It remains unclear, why some patients develop persistent sciatica as none of the traditionally considered clinical parameters (eg, symptom severity, routine MRI) are consistent prognostic factors.The FORECAST study (factors predicting the transition from acute to persistent pain in people with ‘sciatica’) will take a different approach by exploring mechanism-based subgroups in patients with sciatica and investigate whether a mechanism-based approach can identify factors that predict pain persistence in patients with sciatica.Methods and analysis We will perform a prospective longitudinal cohort study including 180 people with acute/subacute sciatica. N=168 healthy participants will provide normative data. A detailed set of variables will be assessed within 3 months after sciatica onset. This will include self-reported sensory and psychosocial profiles, quantitative sensory testing, blood inflammatory markers and advanced neuroimaging. We will determine outcome with the Sciatica Bothersomeness Index and a Numerical Pain Rating Scale for leg pain severity at 3 and 12 months.We will use principal component analysis followed by clustering methods to identify subgroups. Univariate associations and machine learning methods optimised for high dimensional small data sets will be used to identify the most powerful predictors and model selection/accuracy.The results will provide crucial information about the pathophysiological drivers of sciatica symptoms and may identify prognostic factors of pain persistence.Ethics and dissemination The FORECAST study has received ethical approval (South Central Oxford C, 18/SC/0263). The dissemination strategy will be guided by our patient and public engagement activities and will include peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations, social media and podcasts.Trial registration number ISRCTN18170726; Pre-results.

This study investigated associations between measures of adiposity from age 36 and spine shape at 60-64 years. Thoracolumbar spine shape was characterised using statistical shape modelling on lateral dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry images of the spine from 1529 participants of the MRC National Survey of Health and Development, acquired at age 60-64. Associations of spine shape modes with: 1) contemporaneous measures of total and central adiposity (body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC)) and body composition (android:gynoid fat mass ratio and lean and fat mass indices, calculated as whole body (excluding the head) lean or fat mass (kg) divided by height2 (m)2); 2) changes in total and central adiposity between age 36 and 60-64 and 3) age at onset of overweight, were tested using linear regression models. Four modes described 79% of the total variance in spine shape. In men, greater lean mass index was associated with a larger lordosis whereas greater fat mass index was associated with straighter spines. Greater current BMI was associated with a more uneven curvature in men and with larger anterior-posterior (a-p) vertebral diameters in both sexes. Greater WC and fat mass index were also associated with a-p diameter in both sexes. There was no clear evidence that gains in BMI and WC during earlier stages of adulthood were associated with spine shape but younger onset of overweight was associated with a more uneven spine and greater a-p diameter. In conclusion, sagittal spine shapes had different associations with total and central adiposity; earlier onset of overweight and prior measures of WC were particularly important.

Using data from a nationally representative British birth cohort we characterized the type and diversity of leisure-time physical activity that 2,188 participants (age 60-64 years) engaged in throughout the year by gender and obesity. Participants most commonly reported walking (71%), swimming (33%), floor exercises (24%) and cycling (15%). Sixty-two percent of participants reported ≥ 2 activities in the past year and 40% reported diversity on a regular basis. Regular engagement in different types of activity (cardio-respiratory, balance/flexibility and strength) was reported by 67%, 19% and 11% of participants, respectively. We found gender differences, as well as differences by obesity status, in the activities reported, the levels of activity diversity and activity type. Non-obese participants had greater activity diversity, and more often reported activities beneficial for cardio-respiratory health and balance/flexibility than obese participants. These findings may be used to inform the development of trials of physical activity interventions targeting older adults, and those older adults with high body mass index.

To compare physical activity (PA) subcomponents from EPIC Physical Activity Questionnaire (EPAQ2) and combined heart rate and movement sensing in older adults.Participants aged 60-64y from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development in Great Britain completed EPAQ2, which assesses self-report PA in 4 domains (leisure time, occupation, transportation and domestic life) during the past year and wore a combined sensor for 5 consecutive days. Estimates of PA energy expenditure (PAEE), sedentary behaviour, light (LPA) and moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) were obtained from EPAQ2 and combined sensing and compared. Complete data were available in 1689 participants (52% women).EPAQ2 estimates of PAEE and MVPA were higher than objective estimates and sedentary time and LPA estimates were lower [bias (95% limits of agreement) in men and women were 32.3 (-61.5 to 122.6) and 29.0 (-39.2 to 94.6) kJ/kg/day for PAEE; -4.6 (-10.6 to 1.3) and -6.0 (-10.9 to -1.0) h/day for sedentary time; -171.8 (-454.5 to 110.8) and -60.4 (-367.5 to 246.6) min/day for LPA; 91.1 (-159.5 to 341.8) and 55.4 (-117.2 to 228.0) min/day for MVPA]. There were significant positive correlations between all self-reported and objectively assessed PA subcomponents (rho= 0.12 to 0.36); the strongest were observed for MVPA (rho = 0.30 men; rho = 0.36 women) and PAEE (rho = 0.26 men; rho = 0.25 women).EPAQ2 produces higher estimates of PAEE and MVPA and lower estimates of sedentary and LPA than objective assessment. However, both methodologies rank individuals similarly, suggesting that EPAQ2 may be used in etiological studies in this population.

Abstract We aimed to examine whether back pain across adulthood was associated with spine shape at age 60–64 years. Data were from 1405 participants in the MRC National Survey of Health and Development, a nationally representative British birth cohort. Back pain was ascertained during nurse interviews at ages 36, 43, 53 and 60–64 years. Cumulative exposure to back pain was then derived by counting the number of ages at which back pain was reported. Statistical shape modelling was used to characterise thoracolumbar spine shape using lateral dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry images which were ascertained at age 60–64 years. Linear regression models were used to test associations of spine shape modes (SM) with: (1) cumulative exposure to back pain; (2) back pain reports during different periods of adulthood. After adjusting for sex, higher cumulative exposure to back pain across adulthood was associated with wedge-shaped L4-5 disc (lower SM4 scores) and smaller disc spaces (higher SM8 scores) in both sexes. In addition, reporting of back pain at ages 53 and/or 60–64 years was associated with smaller L4-5 disc space (lower SM6 scores) in men but not women. These findings suggest that back pain across adulthood may be associated with specific variations in spine shapes in early old age.

Abstract Background Around 1 in 8 patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) also meet criteria for fibromyalgia and such patients have considerable unmet need. Identifying effective therapy is important but to what extent fibromyalgia-like symptoms relate to axSpA disease severity has not been established. The aim of the current analysis was to determine whether distinct clusters of axSpA patients exist and if so to determine a) whether they differ in terms of prevalence of fibromyalgia and b) the features of patients in clusters with high prevalence. Methods The British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register (BSRBR-AS) recruited axSpA patients from 83 centres 2012–2017. Clinical data, and information from patients was collected (including research criteria for fibromyalgia). Cluster analysis was undertaken using split samples for development and validation both in the whole population and the sub-group which met fibromyalgia criteria. Results One thousand three hundred thirty-eight participants were included of whom 23% met research criteria for fibromyalgia. Four clusters were identified. Two exhibited very high disease activity, one which was primarily axial (n = 347) and a smaller cluster (n = 32) with axial and peripheral disease, and in both groups more than half of members met criteria for fibromyalgia. The remaining two clusters (n = 437, n = 462) had overall less severe disease however the one which showed greater disease activity and poorer quality of life had a higher proportion meeting fibromyalgia criteria (16% v. 4%). Within those meeting fibromyalgia criteria there were three clusters. The two main groups were defined by level of symptom severity with a smaller third cluster noted to have high average swollen and tender joint counts and high levels of comorbidity. Conclusions The major feature defining clusters with a high proportion of persons meeting criteria for fibromyalgia is high axSpA disease activity although clusters with features of fibromyalgia in the absence of high disease activity also show moderately high prevalence. Management may be most successful with pharmacologic therapy to target inflammation but enhanced by the concurrent use of non-pharmacologic therapy in such patients.