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Procapra picticaudata is an ungulate endemic to the Tibetan Plateau and is widely distributed in the Three-River-Source region. Predicting the seasonal variations in habitat suitability and understanding the effects of environmental variables on habitat use by this species will help formulate effective conservation strategies and clarify its niche characteristics. Based on point records of the occurrence collected during repeated field surveys in winter (January 2019) and summer (August 2019), we used MaxEnt model to predict the differences in habitat suitability and the distribution pattern of the P. picticaudata in the Three-River-Source region using eight preselected environmental variables. We further explored the influence of those variables on the P. picticaudata' distribution pattern using environmental response curves. The results showed that the average area under the receiving operator curve values in winter and summer was 0.901 ±0.023 and 0.882±0.024, respectively, with a good accuracy of fitness. The total area of suitable habitat for P. picticaudata in winter and summer was 6. 83 X 104 and 9. 78 X 104 km2, respectively. The area of suitable habitats in summer increased significantly compared with winter. There was a tendency for P. picticaudata to spread to the south of the Yangtze River Source Park and the Yellow River Source Park in summer. The spatial patterns of habitat suitability in both winter and summer took Three-River-Source National Park as the high-value center and decreased around it. The seasonal average temperature, altitude, population density, and slope were the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of P. picticaudata both in winter and summer. The higher temperatures in summer allowed the suitable P. picticaudata habitats to extend into areas above 5000 m in altitude, and to areas with slopes of less than 25°, compared with winter. The expansion of human activities in summer encroached on the suitable habitat of P. picticaudata. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Freshwater ecosystems are embedded in terrestrial ecosystems to form an integral whole. In the context of global climate change, freshwater ecosystems may be irreversibly negatively affected; thus, aquatic organisms dependent on freshwater ecosystems are severely affected. However, terrestrial life may also experience unexpected crises due to the collapse of freshwater ecosystems, and we know very little about the relationship between terrestrial life and freshwater ecosystems. Therefore, we conducted our research on the Tibetan Plateau, an area with a dense distribution of lakes. We analyzed the relationship between the number of Tibetan antelopes (an ungulate mammal distributed in the region) and the number of lakes, and the distribution of the terrain and vegetation around the lake. Our results indicated that a greater abundance of Tibetan antelopes was associated with larger lakes, flatter terrain, and proximity to lakes, which may all be factors that affect the survival of this species. Our study suggests that lakes may provide a better habitat for ungulates in such a fragile ecosystem, including a different predation risk and more food resources, and this also provides a new research idea for the study of multi-species coexistence on the Tibetan Plateau. The influence of freshwater ecosystems on terrestrial taxa in high-altitude regions with challenging access, such as the Tibetan Plateau, remains inadequately understood. This knowledge gap is particularly significant due to the fragility of these ecosystems, characterized by low primary productivity. Ungulates, in particular, may exhibit high sensitivity to even minor alterations in plant availability, potentially stemming from global climate change. Consequently, the investigation of these ecosystems may offer valuable insights into addressing future challenges posed by climate change. Here, to fill this knowledge gap, we explore the relationship between lakes and Tibetan antelopes in an even more vulnerable region, the Tibetan Plateau. We found that the Tibetan antelope population was higher in areas with larger lakes, and where the terrain near the lakes was flatter. At the same time, vegetation cover and plant diversity were higher near the lake compared to areas farther away from the lake. This phenomenon can be elucidated by the fact that lakes offer Tibetan antelopes a richer food supply and reduced predation risk. Our study provides new perspectives for researchers to explore the cross-ecosystem impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the protected area (PA) covers >15% of the planet's terrestrial land area and continues to expand, factors determining its effectiveness in conserving endangered species are being debated. We investigated the links between direct anthropogenic pressures, socioeconomic settings, and the coverage of vertebrate taxa by China's PA network, and indicated that high socioeconomic status and low levels of human pressure correlate with high species coverage, with threatened mammals more effectively conserved than reptiles or amphibians. Positive links between conservation outcomes and socioeconomic progress appear linked to local livelihood improvements triggering positive perceptions of local PAs—aided further by ecological compensation and tourism schemes introduced in wealthy areas and reinforced by continued positive conservation outcomes. Socioeconomic development of China's less developed regions might assist regional PA efficiency and achievement of the Kunming‐Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, while also addressing potential shortcomings from an insufficient past focus on socioeconomic impacts for biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A fundamental goal of scientific research is to identify the underlying variables that govern crucial processes of a system. This is especially difficult in ecology, which is intrinsically rich in candidate predictors. An efficient statistical procedure to evaluate the relative importance of predictors in regression models is highly desirable. However, previous studies criticised the most universally applicable method, by pointing out the low discriminating power of the importance index in simulated datasets. Here we proposed a new index, WiBB, which integrates the merits of several existing methods. WiBB combines a model‐weighting method from information theory (Wi), a standardised regression coefficient method measured by β* (B), and bootstrap resampling technique (B). We applied the WiBB in simulated datasets with known correlation structures, for both linear models (LM) and generalized linear models (GLM), to evaluate its performance. We also applied it to an empirical dataset of a plant genus Mimulus to select bioclimatic predictors of species' presence across the landscape. Results in the simulated datasets showed that the bootstrap resampling technique significantly improved the discriminant ability by correctly sorting the orders of relative importance of predictors. The WiBB method outperformed the β* and the relative sum of weights (SWi, a standardised version of sum of weights) methods in scenarios with small and large sample sizes, respectively. When testing WiBB in the empirical dataset with GLM, it sensibly identified four important predictors with high credibility out of six candidates in modelling geographical distributions of 71 Mimulus species. This integrated index has great advantages in evaluating predictor importance and hence reducing the dimensionality of data, without losing interpretive power. The simplicity of calculation of the new metric over more sophisticated statistical procedures makes it a handy method in the statistical toolbox. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nonanalogous climates (NACs), climates without modern analogs on Earth, challenge our understanding of eco-evolutionary processes that shape global biodiversity, particularly because of their propensity to promote novel ecosystems. However, NAC studies are generally inadequate and partial. Specifically, systematic comparisons between the future and the past are generally lacking, and hydraulic NACs tend to be underemphasized. In the present study, by adopting a frequency distributionbased method that facilitates the procedures of contributions parsing and conducting multiple comparisons, we provide a global overview of multidimensional NACs for both the past and the future within a unified framework. We show that NACs are globally prevalent, covering roughly half of the land area across the time-periods under investigation, and have a high degree of spatial structure. Patterns of NACs differ dramatically between the past and the future. Hydraulic NACs are more complex both in spatial patterns and in major contributions of variables than are thermal NACs. However, hydraulic NACs are more predictable than originally thought. Generally, hydraulic NACs in the future (2100 AD) exhibit comparable predictability to thermal NACs in the last glacial maximum (LGM) (21k BP). Identifying these NAC patterns has potential implications on climate-adaptive managements and preparing in advance to possibly frequent novel ecosystems. However, a learning-fromthe- past strategy might be of limited utility for management under present circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: The Amur tiger and leopard, once roaming over the Eurasian continent, are now endangered and confined to the Sikhote-Alin Mountains, Russia-a landscape that has been increasingly fragmented due to human activities. The ultimate fate of these big cats depends on whether they can resettle in their previous main historical range in NE China. Recent sightings of these animals along the China-Russia border have aroused new hope, but direct evidence is lacking. Objectives: The main objectives of our study were (1) to determine the abundance and spatiotemporal patterns of tigers, leopards, and primary prey; (2) to investigate factors influencing the resettlement of the two big cats; and (3) to propose a landscape-scale conservation plan to secure the long-term sustainability of the Amur tiger and leopard. Methods: We monitored the two felids, their prey, and human activities, with 380 camera-trap stations, for a total of 175,127 trap days and over an area of 6000 km in NE China. We used the constraint line method to characterize cattle grazing and human influences on tigers, leopards, and their prey species. Results: Our results show that, unexpectedly, at least 26 tigers and 42 leopards are present within China, which are confined primarily to a narrow area along the border with Russia. We have further identified that cattle grazing and human disturbances are the key hurdles to the dispersal of the tigers and leopards farther into China where suitable habitat is potentially available. Conclusions: Amur tigers and leopards are returning to China, indeed, but their long-term resettlement is not likely without active and timely conservation efforts on landscape and regional scales. To overcome the hurdles to the resettlement of tigers and leopards in China, we propose a 'Tiger and Leopard Resettlement Program' that will engage the government, local communities, and researchers, so that the long-term sustainability of the Amur tigers and leopards can be ensured. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I), overlapping (O), and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz), based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index). A graphical tool (PRS_Chart) was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement) than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS's for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between vegetation and precipitation has been studied extensively, but little is known about its mechanistic linkage to agro-ecosystem sustainability. In this study, we used 250 m MODIS NDVI 16-day composite data and precipitation data for the period 2001-2005 to evaluate the connection between vegetation and precipitation in the Jinghe River watershed of the central Loess Plateau, China. A principal component analysis (PCA) was employed to determine the primary feature of vegetation cover. The results indicated that the first two principal components (PC1 and PC2) explained around 89% of total NDVI variances. The spatial distribution of PC1 followed an increasing trend from northwest to southeast, a similar dynamics to the spatial pattern of NDVI, which was determined by the variation of mean annual precipitation in the Jinghe River watershed. Furthermore, PC2 was associated with the spring/summer modes of the annual cycle while their intra-annual variations were largely modified by the regular phonological cycle of the winter wheat-summer fallow cropping practices, a dominant farming practice in severely degraded regions of the Loess Plateau. Winter wheat-summer fallow practice was a dominant factor affecting the precipitation-vegetation relationship. A sharp decrease in vegetation cover after wheat harvesting during the rainy seasons from July to September may be a major cause of extensive soil erosion in this region. Our findings provide new insight into the relationship between vegetation and precipitation which is critical in the restoration of degraded ecosystems and developing appropriate crop rotation systems to achieve a certain amount of agricultural sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) is a flagship species of the boreal forest ecosystem in northeastern China and Russia Far East. During the past century, the tiger population has declined sharply from more than 3000 to fewer than 600 individuals, and its habitat has become much smaller and greatly fragmented. Poaching, habitat degradation, habitat loss, and habitat fragmentation have been widely recognized as the primary causes for the observed population decline. Using a population viability analysis tool (RAMAS/GIS), we simulated the effects of poaching, habitat degradation, habitat loss, and habitat fragmentation on the population dynamics and extinction risk of the Amur tiger, and then explored the relative effectiveness of three conservation strategies involving improving habitat quality and establishing movement corridors in China and Russia. A series of controlled simulation experiments were performed based on the current spatial distribution of habitat and field-observed vital rates. Our results showed that the Amur tiger population could be viable for the next 100 years if the current habitat area and quality were well-maintained, with poaching strictly prohibited of the tigers and their main prey species. Poaching and habitat degradation (mainly prey scarcity) had the largest negative impacts on the tiger population persistence. While the effect of habitat loss was also substantial, habitat fragmentation per se had less influence on the long-term fate of the tiger population. However, to sustain the subpopulations in both Russia and China would take much greater conservation efforts. The viability of the Chinese population of tigers would rely heavily on its connectivity with the largest patch on the other side of the border. Improving the habitat quality of small patches only or increasing habitat connectivity through movement corridors alone would not be enough to guarantee the long-term population persistence of the Amur tiger in both Russia and China. The only conservation strategy that allowed for long-term persistence of tigers in both countries required both the improvement of habitat quality and the establishment of a transnational reserve network. Our study provides new insights into the metapopulation dynamics and persistence of the Amur tiger, which should be useful in landscape and conservation planning for protecting the biggest cat species in the world. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The influence of freshwater ecosystems on terrestrial taxa in high-altitude regions with challenging access, such as the Tibetan Plateau, remains inadequately understood. This knowledge gap is particularly significant due to the fragility of these ecosystems, characterized by low primary productivity. Ungulates, in particular, may exhibit high sensitivity to even minor alterations in plant availability, potentially stemming from global climate change. Consequently, the investigation of these ecosystems may offer valuable insights into addressing future challenges posed by climate change. Here, to fill this knowledge gap, we explore the relationship between lakes and Tibetan antelopes in an even more vulnerable region, the Tibetan Plateau. We found that the Tibetan antelope population was higher in areas with larger lakes, and where the terrain near the lakes was flatter. At the same time, vegetation cover and plant diversity were higher near the lake compared to areas farther away from the lake. This phenomenon can be elucidated by the fact that lakes offer Tibetan antelopes a richer food supply and reduced predation risk. Our study provides new perspectives for researchers to explore the cross-ecosystem impacts of climate change.

Predicting species range shifts in response to climatic change is a central aspect of global change studies. An ever growing number of species have been modeled using a variety of species distribution models (SDMs). However, quantitative studies of the characteristics of range shifts are rare, predictions of range changes are hard to interpret, analyze and summarize, and comparisons between the various models are difficult to make when the number of species modeled is large. Maxent was used to model the distribution of 12 Abies spp. in China under current and possible future climate conditions. Two fuzzy set defined indices, range increment index (I) and range overlapping index (O), were used to quantify range shifts of the chosen species. Correlation analyses were used to test the relationships between these indices and species distribution characteristics. Our results show that Abies spp. range increments (I) were highly correlated with longitude, latitude, and mean roughness of their current distributions. Species overlapping (O) was moderately, or not, correlated with these parameters. Neither range increments nor overlapping showed any correlation with species prevalence. These fuzzy sets defined indices provide ideal measures of species range shifts because they are stable and threshold-free. They are reliable indices that allow large numbers of species to be described, modeled, and compared on a variety of taxonomic levels.