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Our objective was to determine whether the Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) World Cup in 1998 had a short-term impact on the number of suicides in France. Exhaustive individual daily data on suicides from 1979 to 2006 were obtained from the French epidemiological center on the medical causes of death (CepiDC-INSERM; France). These data were analyzed using the seasonal ARIMA model. The overall effect of the World Cup was tested together with potential specific impact on days following the French team games. Between 11th June and 11th July, a significant decline of 95 suicides was observed -10.3%), this effect being the strongest among men and people aged between 30 and 44. A significant decrease was also observed for the days following French team games (-19.9%). Our results are in favor of an effect of nationwide sport events on suicidal behaviors and are consistent with other studies. Many of the theories explaining the relationship between sports and suicide are related to sense of belongingness and social integration, highlighting the importance of social link reinforcement in suicide prevention.

Abstract Background Monitoring the time course of mortality by cause is a key public health issue. However, several mortality data production changes may affect cause-specific time trends, thus altering the interpretation. This paper proposes a statistical method that detects abrupt changes ("jumps") and estimates correction factors that may be used for further analysis. Methods The method was applied to a subset of the AMIEHS (Avoidable Mortality in the European Union, toward better Indicators for the Effectiveness of Health Systems) project mortality database and considered for six European countries and 13 selected causes of deaths. For each country and cause of death, an automated jump detection method called Polydect was applied to the log mortality rate time series. The plausibility of a data production change associated with each detected jump was evaluated through literature search or feedback obtained from the national data producers. For each plausible jump position, the statistical significance of the between-age and between-gender jump amplitude heterogeneity was evaluated by means of a generalized additive regression model, and correction factors were deduced from the results. Results Forty-nine jumps were detected by the Polydect method from 1970 to 2005. Most of the detected jumps were found to be plausible. The age- and gender-specific amplitudes of the jumps were estimated when they were statistically heterogeneous, and they showed greater by-age heterogeneity than by-gender heterogeneity. Conclusion The method presented in this paper was successfully applied to a large set of causes of death and countries. The method appears to be an alternative to bridge coding methods when the latter are not systematically implemented because they are time- and resource-consuming.

Abstract Background We developed a methodology using vital statistics to estimate the impact of osteoporotic fractures on the mortality of an entire population, and applied it to France for the period 2000-2004. Methods Current definitions of osteoporotic fractures were reviewed and their components identified. We used the International Classification of Diseases with national vital statistics data for the French adult population and performed cross-classifications between various components: age, sex, I-code (site) and E-code (mechanism of fracture). This methodology allowed identification of appropriate thresholds and categorization for each pertinent component. Results 2,625,743 death certificates were analyzed, 2.2% of which carried a mention of fracture. Hip fractures represented 55% of all deaths from fracture. Both sexes showed a similar pattern of mortality rates for all fracture sites, the rate increased with age from the age of 70 years. The E-high-energy code (present in 12% of death certificates with fractures) was found to be useful to rule-out non-osteoporotic fractures, and to correct the overestimation of mortality rates. Using this methodology, the crude number of deaths associated with fractures was estimated to be 57,753 and the number associated with osteoporotic fractures 46,849 (1.85% and 1.78% of all deaths, respectively). Conclusion Osteoporotic fractures have a significant impact on overall population mortality.

Abstract Background Spatial health inequalities have often been analysed in terms of deprivation. The aim of this study was to create an ecological deprivation index and evaluate its association with mortality over the entire mainland France territory. More specifically, the variations with the degree of urbanicity, spatial scale, age, gender and cause of death, which influence the association between mortality and deprivation, have been described. Methods The deprivation index, 'FDep99', was developed at the 'commune'(smallest administrative unit in France) level as the first component of a principal component analysis of four socioeconomic variables. Proxies of the Carstairs and Townsend indices were calculated for comparison. The spatial association between FDep99 and mortality was studied using five different spatial scales, and by degree of urbanicity (five urban unit categories), age, gender and cause of death, over the period 1997–2001. 'Avoidable' causes of death were also considered for subjects aged less than 65 years. They were defined as causes related to risk behaviour and primary prevention (alcohol, smoking, accidents). Results The association between the FDep99 index and mortality was positive and quasi-log-linear, for all geographic scales. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was 24% higher for the communes of the most deprived quintile than for those of the least deprived quintile. The between-urban unit category and between-région heterogeneities of the log-linear associations were not statistically significant. The association was positive for all the categories studied and was significantly greater for subjects aged less than 65 years, for men, and for 'avoidable' mortality. The amplitude and regularity of the associations between mortality and the Townsend and Carstairs indices were lower. Conclusion The deprivation index proposed reflects a major part of spatial socioeconomic heterogeneity, in a homogeneous manner over the whole country. The index may be routinely used by healthcare authorities to observe, analyse, and manage spatial health inequalities.

Abstract Background In the context of climate change, an efficient alert system to prevent the risk associated with summer heat is necessary. The authors' objective was to describe the temperature-mortality relationship in France over a 29-year period and to define and validate a combination of temperature factors enabling optimum prediction of the daily fluctuations in summer mortality. Methods The study addressed the daily mortality rates of subjects aged over 55 years, in France as a whole, from 1975 to 2003. The daily minimum and maximum temperatures consisted in the average values recorded by 97 meteorological stations. For each day, a cumulative variable for the maximum temperature over the preceding 10 days was defined. The mortality rate was modelled using a Poisson regression with over-dispersion and a first-order autoregressive structure and with control for long-term and within-summer seasonal trends. The lag effects of temperature were accounted for by including the preceding 5 days. A "backward" method was used to select the most significant climatic variables. The predictive performance of the model was assessed by comparing the observed and predicted daily mortality rates on a validation period (summer 2003), which was distinct from the calibration period (1975–2002) used to estimate the model. Results The temperature indicators explained 76% of the total over-dispersion. The greater part of the daily fluctuations in mortality was explained by the interaction between minimum and maximum temperatures, for a day t and the day preceding it. The prediction of mortality during extreme events was greatly improved by including the cumulative variables for maximum temperature, in interaction with the maximum temperatures. The correlation between the observed and estimated mortality ratios was 0.88 in the final model. Conclusion Although France is a large country with geographic heterogeneity in both mortality and temperatures, a strong correlation between the daily fluctuations in mortality and the temperatures in summer on a national scale was observed. The model provided a satisfactory quantitative prediction of the daily mortality both for the days with usual temperatures and for the days during intense heat episodes. The results may contribute to enhancing the alert system for intense heat waves.

Background: The homeless population of France has increased by 50% over the last 10 years. Studies have shown that homelessness is associated with a high risk of premature death. The aim of this study was to estimate the number of homeless deaths in France between 2008 and 2010, using a reproducible method. Methods: We used the capture-recapture method to estimate the number of homeless deaths in France using two independent sources. An associative register of homeless deaths was matched with the national exhaustive database of the medical causes of death, using several matching approaches based on various combinations of the following variables: gender, age, place of death, date of death. Results: The estimated number of homeless deaths between 2008 and 2010 was 6730 (95% CI: [4381–9079]), a number greatly underestimated by the two sources considered separately (less than 20%). Conclusions: In the absence of a register of the homeless deaths, the capture-recapture method provides an order of magnitude for evaluation of the resources that may be allocated by policy makers to manage the issue. Based on common and routinely produced databases, this estimate may therefore be used to monitor the mortality of the homeless population. Further studies about homeless mortality, particularly on the lead causes of deaths, are needed to manage this issue and to implement strategy to decrease the number of homeless deaths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background In the age of big data in healthcare, automated comparison of medical diagnoses in large scale databases is a key issue. Our objectives were: 1) to formally define and identify cases of independence between last hospitalization main diagnosis (MD) and death registry underlying cause of death (UCD) for deceased subjects hospitalized in their last year of life; 2) to study their distribution according to socio-demographic and medico-administrative variables; 3) to discuss the interest of this method in the specific context of hospital quality of care assessment. Methods 1) Elaboration of an algorithm comparing MD and UCD, relying on Iris, a coding system based on international standards. 2) Application to 421,460 beneficiaries of the general health insurance regime (which covers 70% of French population) hospitalized and deceased in 2008-2009. Results 1) Independence, was defined as MD and UCD belonging to different trains of events leading to death 2) Among the deaths analyzed automatically (91.7%), 8.5% of in-hospital deaths and 19.5% of out-of-hospital deaths were classified as independent. Independence was more frequent in elder patients, as well as when the discharge-death time interval grew (14.3% when death occurred within 30 days after discharge and 27.7% within 6 to 12 months) and for UCDs other than neoplasms. Conclusion Our algorithm can identify cases where death can be considered independent from the pathology treated in hospital. Excluding these deaths from the ones allocated to the hospitalization process could contribute to improve post-hospital mortality indicators. More generally, this method has the potential of being developed and used for other diagnoses comparisons across time periods or databases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Looking for associations among multiple variables is a topical issue in statistics due to the increasing amount of data encountered in biology, medicine, and many other domains involving statistical applications. Graphical models have recently gained popularity for this purpose in the statistical literature. In the binary case, however, exact inference is generally very slow or even intractable because of the form of the so-called log-partition function. In this paper, we review various approximate methods for structure selection in binary graphical models that have recently been proposed in the literature and compare them through an extensive simulation study. We also propose a modification of one existing method, that is shown to achieve good performance and to be generally very fast. We conclude with an application in which we search for associations among causes of death recorded on French death certificates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Electronic death certification was established in France in 2007. A methodology based on intrinsic characteristics of death certificates was designed to compare the quality of electronic versus paper death certificates. Methods: All death certificates from the 2010 French mortality database were included. Three specific quality indicators were considered: (i) amount of information, measured by the number of causes of death coded on the death certificate; (ii) intrinsic consistency, explored by application of the International Classification of Disease (ICD) General Principle, using an international automatic coding system (Iris); (iii) imprecision, measured by proportion of death certificates where the selected underlying cause of death was imprecise. Multivariate models were considered: a truncated Poisson model for indicator (i) and binomial models for indicators (ii) and (iii). Adjustment variables were age, gender, and cause, place, and region of death. Results: 533,977death certificates were analyzed. After adjustment, electronic death certificates contained 19% [17%-20%] more codes than paper death certificates for people deceased under 65 years, and 12% [11%-13%] more codes for people deceased over 65 years. Regarding deceased under and over 65 respectively, the ICD General Principle could be applied 2% [0%-4%] and 6% [5%-7%] more to electronic than to paper death certificates. The proportion of imprecise death certificates was 51% [46%-56%] lower for electronic than for paper death certificates. Conclusion: The method proposed to evaluate the quality of death certificates is easily reproducible in countries using an automatic coding system. According to our criteria, electronic death certificates are better completed than paper death certificates. The transition to electronic death certificates is positive in many aspects and should be promoted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality have been observed in different European countries and the US until the end of the 1990s, with changes over time in the magnitude of these inequalities and contrasted situations between countries. The aim of this study is to estimate relative and absolute educational differences in cancer mortality in France between 1999 and 2007, and to compare these inequalities with those reported during the 1990s. Methods: Data from a representative sample including 1% of the French population were analysed. Educational differences among people aged 30-74 were quantified with hazard ratios and relative indices of inequality (RII) computed using Cox regression models as well as mortality rate difference and population attributable fraction. Results: In the period 1999-2007, large relative inequalities were found among men for total cancer and smoking and/or alcohol related cancers mortality (lung, head and neck, oesophagus). Among women, educational differences were reported for total cancer, head and neck and uterus cancer mortality. No association was found between education and breast cancer mortality. Slight educational differences in colorectal cancer mortality were observed in men and women. For most frequent cancers, no change was observed in the magnitude of relative inequalities in mortality between the 1990s and the 2000s, although the RII for lung cancer increased both in men and women. Among women, a large increase in absolute inequalities in mortality was observed for all cancers combined, lung, head and neck and colorectal cancer. In contrast, among men, absolute inequalities in mortality decreased for all smoking and/or alcohol related cancers. Conclusion: Although social inequalities in cancer mortality are still high among men, an encouraging trend is observed. Among women though, the situation regarding social inequalities is less favourable, mainly due to a health improvement limited to higher educated women. These inequalities may be expected to further increase in future years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After a brief presentation of the components and evolution of the French statistical health information system, this article goes on to describe the main sources of data from which public health indicators are derived. Among sources that cover the whole country, or those based on data collection that can be extrapolated to the whole French population, the article focuses on exhaustive health databases essentially those run by the administration: mortality data provided by death certificates, morbidity data collected from administrative patient management files, particularly from hospitals and health insurance organizations and other health data from compulsory reporting. It also presents other sources of data such as large national general population surveys, national surveys involving health professionals or structures, and health surveillance networks and registries. The article mentions two important problems faced by the French health statistics system, namely the linkage of different sources, while respecting legislation on personal privacy and the organisation of access to data for research, surveillance and public health purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mortality from asthma has decreased in many countries since the 1990s. Mortality statistics are usually based only on the underlying cause of death. The objectives of this study were to describe the characteristics of deaths and the trends in asthma-related mortality using multiple-cause analysis. Data were obtained from the French Centre of Epidemiology on Medical Causes of Death. Because ICD-10 was implemented in 2000, the analysis covers the period 2000-2005. In 2004-2005, asthma was the underlying cause of 42% of deaths with certificates mentioning asthma. The age-standardised rates of death from asthma decreased from 2000 through 2005 (-12% and -11%/year in the 1-44 and 45-64 age groups, respectively). The decline for all deaths with asthma was less pronounced (-9%/year in the 1-44 age group and -8%/year in the 45-64). Among adults aged 65 or older, the decrease in asthma-related mortality was higher in men (-12%/year for underlying cause, -9% for multiple-cause) than women (-5% and -3%, respectively). Since 2002, age-standardised rates of asthma-related mortality have been higher in women than men. In people aged 1-44 years, in-hospital deaths have declined between 2000 and 2005 while the proportion of non-hospital deaths increased from 53% to 67%. Regardless of the definition used, the age-standardised rate of asthma-related deaths decreased from 2000 to 2005, and the faster decline for underlying cause than for multiple-cause mortality argues for a real decline in mortality attributable to asthma. Using multiple cause-of-death analysis provides additional information for asthma mortality surveillance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Spatial health inequalities have often been analysed in terms of deprivation. The aim of this study was to create an ecological deprivation index and evaluate its association with mortality over the entire mainland France territory. More specifically, the variations with the degree of urbanicity, spatial scale, age, gender and cause of death, which influence the association between mortality and deprivation, have been described. Methods: The deprivation index, "FDep99", was developed at the "commune"(smallest administrative unit in France) level as the first component of a principal component analysis of four socioeconomic variables. Proxies of the Carstairs and Townsend indices were calculated for comparison. The spatial association between FDep99 and mortality was studied using five different spatial scales, and by degree of urbanicity (five urban unit categories), age, gender and cause of death, over the period 1997-2001. "Avoidable" causes of death were also considered for subjects aged less than 65 years. They were defined as causes related to risk behaviour and primary prevention (alcohol, smoking, accidents). Results: The association between the FDep99 index and mortality was positive and quasi-log-linear, for all geographic scales. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was 24% higher for the communes of the most deprived quintile than for those of the least deprived quintile. The between-urban unit category and between-région heterogeneities of the log-linear associations were not statistically significant. The association was positive for all the categories studied and was significantly greater for subjects aged less than 65 years, for men, and for "avoidable" mortality. The amplitude and regularity of the associations between mortality and the Townsend and Carstairs indices were lower. Conclusion: The deprivation index proposed reflects a major part of spatial socioeconomic heterogeneity, in a homogeneous manner over the whole country. The index may be routinely used by healthcare authorities to observe, analyse, and manage spatial health inequalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We developed a methodology using vital statistics to estimate the impact of osteoporotic fractures on the mortality of an entire population, and applied it to France for the period 2000-2004. Methods: Current definitions of osteoporotic fractures were reviewed and their components identified. We used the International Classification of Diseases with national vital statistics data for the French adult population and performed cross-classifications between various components: age, sex, I-code (site) and E-code (mechanism of fracture). This methodology allowed identification of appropriate thresholds and categorization for each pertinent component. Results: 2,625,743 death certificates were analyzed, 2.2% of which carried a mention of fracture. Hip fractures represented 55% of all deaths from fracture. Both sexes showed a similar pattern of mortality rates for all fracture sites, the rate increased with age from the age of 70 years. The E-high-energy code (present in 12% of death certificates with fractures) was found to be useful to rule-out non-osteoporotic fractures, and to correct the overestimation of mortality rates. Using this methodology, the crude number of deaths associated with fractures was estimated to be 57,753 and the number associated with osteoporotic fractures 46,849 (1.85% and 1.78% of all deaths, respectively). Conclusion: Osteoporotic fractures have a significant impact on overall population mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]