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The changing climate makes it more difficult to manage water resources and food production sustainably. Various adaptation measures have been proposed to moderate the negative impacts of climate change; however, implementation of these measures may be hampered by other factors even if the benefits are acknowledged—a situation termed "soft adaptation limits" by the IPCC. We hypothesized that societal rules can be a potential barrier to adaptive action if they are too fixed, because such rules have coevolved with the interactions between the past climate and human activities. To test this hypothesis, we present a framework based on the assumption that associated societal rules of Japan's matured irrigation systems are potential barriers to adaptation. The framework consisted of two process‐based models, one to evaluate the water deficit risk and one to evaluate the benefits of optimizing rice yield and quality. We applied each model to an experiment in which we shifted the current transplantation date by 1 week for up to 5 weeks before and after the current date under the historical (1981–2000) and RCP 2.6 and 8.5 (2011–2030 and 2031–2050) scenarios. We revealed two contrasting development pathways in the study watershed. Soft adaptation limits imposed by water availability will occur by 2030 if farmers optimize for quality, whereas mutual benefits to farmers and river administrators will be achieved if farmers seek yield. We argue that more participatory research with stakeholder engagement, as well as policy discussions about these possible developments, is needed to ensure successful adaptation. Key Points: We present a framework for examining whether societal rules of Japan's matured irrigation systems are potential barriers to adaptationWe show that potential barriers to adaptation imposed by water availability will occur if farmers optimize for rice qualityWe argue that more participatory research with stakeholder engagement is needed to ensure successful adaptation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paddy soil temperatures (Ts) are required to evaluate the mineralization patterns of organic fertilizers in rice paddies. We have developed an estimation method for Ts based on the heat balance model using Agro-Meteorological Grid Square Data (AMD) with a horizontal resolution of 1 km × 1 km. The paddy water temperature (Tw) (daily mean, assuming leaf area index LAI = 0) was first calculated from the AMD using the heat balance equation. Next, the daily mean Ts was evaluated using the empirical relationship between Ts and Tw. The value of Ts can be expressed as a linear function of a time series for Tw for up to 3 days prior. At five test sites in Niigata prefecture, Japan, the mean difference and root mean square errors between the estimated and measured Ts ranged from −0.54°C to 0.77°C (mean: 0.00°C) and from 0.53°C to 1.21°C (mean: 0.86°C), respectively. Overall, the results using the estimated Ts were found to agree with the observations for each field. Using the developed Ts estimation method and the nitrogen (N) mineralization parameters of organic fertilizers, we estimated the N mineralization patterns of four fertilizers at five test sites. The results show a good agreement with the measured values. This suggests that the proposed Ts estimation method in conjunction with the AMD can be utilized to estimate the N mineralization of organic fertilizers applied in paddy fields in Niigata prefecture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mirid bugs Stenotus rubrovittatus and Trigonotylus caelestialium, which cause pecky rice, have become a threat to rice cultivation in Asia. Damage caused by these pests has rapidly become frequent since around 2000 in Japan. Their expansion pattern is not simple, and predicting their future spread remains challenging. Some insects with wide ranges have locally adapted variations in life‐history traits. We performed laboratory rearing experiments to assess the geographical scale of intraspecific variations in life‐history traits of S. rubrovittatus and T. caelestialium. The experiments were aimed at increasing the accuracy of occurrence estimates and the number of generations per year. These results were compared with previous research, and differences in development rates were observed between populations of different latitudes, but not of the same latitude. Finally, plotting the timing of adult emergence and the potential number of generations per year on maps with a 5‐km grid revealed that they differed greatly locally at the same latitude. These maps can be used for developing more efficient methods of managing mirid bugs in integrated pest management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental fluctuations can influence invertebrate population dynamics over large spatial scales, and effects of climate change are of particular importance in understanding phenology. In this study, we tested whether changing climate patterns could increase voltinism and emergence synchrony in Stenotus rubrovittatus and drive the mirid bug’s expansion into currently uninhabited areas of Japan. This expansion could have potentially serious economic consequences for the rice industry. We modelled development of S. rubrovittatus in the field applying the effective accumulated temperature model to calculate the theoretical number of generations and the egg hatching dates from 2003 to 2012 based on a high-resolution, daily weather database. We then performed a regional analysis to assess the relationship between population dynamics and range expansion across the study region and also included a local analysis to evaluate how population parameters affect the presence of S. rubrovittatus at local sites in each year. Results showed that distribution expanded with a relative increase in voltinism and with synchrony of egg hatching date. Moreover, we showed that increased voltinism in the previous year positively influenced local population occurrence. This positive effect suggests that the species’ distribution range expands through increased reproduction at both the regional and local scale. Climate-mediated population dynamics play a significant role in range expansion of the mirid bug. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable regional-scale representation of crop growth and yields has been increasingly important in earth system modeling for the simulation of atmosphere-vegetation-soil interactions in managed ecosystems. While the parameter values in many crop models are location specific or cultivar specific, the validity of such values for regional simulation is in question. We present the scale dependency of likely parameter values that are related to the responses of growth rate and yield to temperature, using the paddy rice model applied to Japan as an example. For all regions, values of the two parameters that determine the degree of yield response to low temperature (the base temperature for calculating cooling degree days and the curvature factor of spikelet sterility caused by low temperature) appeared to change relative to the grid interval. Two additional parameters (the air temperature at which the developmental rate is half of the maximum rate at the optimum temperature and the value of developmental index at which point the crop becomes sensitive to the photoperiod) showed scale dependency in a limited region, whereas the remaining three parameters that determine the phenological characteristics of a rice cultivar and the technological level show no clear scale dependency. These results indicate the importance of using appropriate parameter values for the spatial scale at which a crop model operates. We recommend avoiding the use of location-specific or cultivar-specific parameter values for regional crop simulation, unless a rationale is presented suggesting these values are insensitive to spatial scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is concern about positive feedbacks between climate change and methane (CH 4 ) emission from rice paddies. However, appropriate water management may mitigate the problem. We tested this hypothesis at six field sites in central Thailand, where the irrigated area is rapidly increasing. We used DNDC-Rice, a process-based biogeochemistry model adjusted based on rice growth data at each site to simulate CH 4 emission from a rice-rice double cropping system from 2001 to 2060. Future climate change scenarios consisting of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and seven global climate models were generated by statistical downscaling. We then simulated CH 4 emission in three water management practices: continuous flooding (CF), single aeration (SA), and multiple aeration (MA). The adjusted model reproduced the observed rice yield and CH 4 emission well at each site. The simulated CH 4 emissions in CF from 2051 to 2060 were 5.3 to 7.8%, 9.6 to 16.0%, 7.3 to 18.0%, and 13.6 to 19.0% higher than those from 2001 to 2010 in RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, at the six sites. Regionally, SA and MA mitigated CH 4 emission by 21.9 to 22.9% and 53.5 to 55.2%, respectively, relative to CF among the four RCPs. These mitigation potentials by SA and MA were comparable to those from 2001 to 2010. Our results indicate that climate change in the next several decades will not attenuate the quantitative effect of water management practices on mitigating CH 4 emission from irrigated rice paddies in central Thailand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Methane (CH 4 ) is a greenhouse gas, and paddy fields are one of its main anthropogenic emission sources. To mitigate this emission based on effective management measures, CH 4 emission from paddy fields must be quantified at a national scale. In Japan, country-specific emission factors have been applied since 2003 to estimate national CH 4 emission from paddy fields. However, this method cannot account for the effects of weather conditions and temporal variability of nitrogen fertilizer and organic matter application rates; thus, the estimated emission is highly uncertain. To improve the accuracy of national-scale estimates, we calculated country-specific emission factors using the DeNitrification–DeComposition-Rice (DNDC-Rice) model. First, we calculated CH 4 emission from 1981 to 2010 using 986 datasets that included soil properties, meteorological data, and field management data. Using the simulated site-specific emission, we calculated annual mean emission for each of Japan's seven administrative regions, two water management regimes (continuous flooding and conventional mid-season drainage), and three soil drainage rates (slow, moderate, and fast). The mean emission was positively correlated with organic carbon input to the field, and we developed linear regressions for the relationships among the regions, water management regimes, and drainage rates. The regression results were within the range of published observation values for site-specific relationships between CH 4 emission and organic carbon input rates. This suggests that the regressions provide a simplified method for estimating CH 4 emission from Japanese paddy fields, though some modifications can further improve the estimation accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has a significant impact on rice grain appearance quality; in particular, high temperatures during the grain filling period increase the rate of chalky immature grains, reducing the marketability of rice. Heat-tolerant cultivars have been bred and released to reduce the rate of chalky grain and improve rice quality under high temperatures, but the ability of these cultivars to actually reduce chalky grain content has never been demonstrated due to the lack of integrated datasets. Here, we present a dataset collected through a systematic literature search from publicly available data sources, for the quantitative analysis of the impact of meteorological factors on grain appearance quality of various rice cultivars with contrasted heat tolerance levels. The dataset contains 1302 field observations of chalky grain rates (%) - a critical trait affecting grain appearance sensitive to temperature shocks - for 48 cultivars covering five different heat-tolerant ranks (HTRs) collected at 44 sites across Japan. The dataset also includes the values of key meteorological variables during the grain filling period, such as the cumulative mean air temperature above the threshold temperature (TaHD), mean solar radiation, and mean relative humidity over 20 days after heading, obtained from a gridded daily meteorological dataset with a 1-km resolution developed by the National Agriculture and Food Research Organization. The dataset covers major commercial rice cultivars cultivated in Japan in different environmental conditions. It is a useful resource for analyzing the climate change impact on crop quality and assess the effectiveness of genetic improvements in heat tolerance. Its value has been illustrated in the research article entitled "Effectiveness of heat tolerance rice cultivars in preserving grain appearance quality under high temperatures - A meta-analysis", where the dataset was used to develop a statistical model quantifying the effects of high temperature on grain quality as a function of cultivar heat tolerance., (© 2024 The Author(s).)

We developed a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan (called ELPIS-JP) using the stochastic weather generators (WGs) LARS-WG and, in part, WXGEN. The ELPIS-JP dataset is based on the observed (or estimated) daily weather data for seven climatic variables (daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures; precipitation; solar radiation; relative humidity; and wind speed) at 938 sites in Japan and climate projections from the multi-model ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) used in the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP3) and multi-model ensemble of regional climate models form the Japanese downscaling project (called S-5-3). The capability of the WGs to reproduce the statistical features of the observed data for the period 1981-2000 is assessed using several statistical tests and quantile-quantile plots. Overall performance of the WGs was good. The ELPIS-JP dataset consists of two types of daily data: (i) the transient scenarios throughout the twenty-first century using projections from 10 CMIP3 GCMs under three emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) and (ii) the time-slice scenarios for the period 2081-2100 using projections from three S-5-3 regional climate models. The ELPIS-JP dataset is designed to be used in conjunction with process-based impact models (e.g. crop models) for assessment, not only the impacts of mean climate change but also the impacts of changes in climate variability, wet/dry spells and extreme events, as well as the uncertainty of future impacts associated with climate models and emission scenarios. The ELPIS-JP offers an excellent platform for probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts and potential adaptation at a local scale in Japan.