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Previous research in security studies contends that information warfare (IW) is becoming a critical element in states' overall security strategies. Additionally, many researchers posit that artificial intelligence (AI) is quickly emerging as an important component of digital communications and states' military applications worldwide. However, less is known regarding how states are incorporating AI in their information warfare and influence operations (IWIO). Thus, given the growing importance of AI and IW in global security, this paper examines how the United States, China, and Russia are incorporating AI in their IWIO strategies and tactics. We find that the US, China, and Russia are utilizing AI in their IWIO approaches in significant ways depending on each state's overall IW strategy, with important implications for international security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conflict research has recently found that increased inequality weakens institutional conditions, opening the door for terrorism. While this research often accounts for endogeneity, or the possibility of a reverse causal relationship, there has yet to be an empirical investigation of the impact of terrorism on income inequality. Using a sample of 139 countries between 1994 and 2018, we show that both domestic and transnational terrorism result in higher levels of income inequality. Our results are consistent for both pre- and post-tax and transfer inequality as well as multiple model specifications. Additionally, we explore multiple potential causal mechanisms that link terrorism and income inequality finding that the effect is, in part, due to terrorism's negative effects on institutional stability, increased military expenditure, possibly to fund counterterrorism operations, and reduced foreign capital, especially for greenfield investment. Our analysis indicates a positive relationship between terrorism and inequality and the mechanisms that produce the effect, contributing to the terrorism and inequality literatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on domestic terrorism. Using a cross-national, time-series analysis of 114 countries from 1991–2017, and employing structural equation modeling to test a number of mediating factors, we find that the impact of FDI on domestic terrorism depends on the host state's level of economic development. For host countries at higher-income levels, FDI boosts economic development and global integration promoting prosperity, increasing counterterrorism resources, and reducing the economic grievances that foster terrorism. Conversely, for lower-income host countries, increased FDI fuels higher domestic terrorism, as it intensifies clashes between traditional and modern elements within society, raises economic discrimination, heightens perceptions of economic insecurity, and subsequently leads to grievances directed against the state. Our results indicate a curvilinear relationship between FDI inflows and domestic terrorism, suggesting that FDI produces a double-edged sword between promoting economic development and increasing domestic terrorism in host states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much speculation exists regarding how social media impacts the health of democracies. However, minimal scholarly research empirically examines the effect social media has on democracy across multiple states and regions. Thus, this article analyses the effect social media and disinformation transmitted over social media have on democracy. The findings from a cross-national, time-series analysis of 158 states from 2000–2019 indicate that different types of social media usage have varying effects on democracy. General social media consumption, the presence of diverse political viewpoints on social media, and the use of social media in political campaigns bolster democracy. However, social media disinformation, online political polarization, and the use of social media to organize offline violence reduce overall levels of democracy. In addition, a mediation analysis is conducted to identify the precise linkages between social media disinformation and democracy and indicates that government and political party disinformation impact democracy by weakening key democratic norms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An emerging field of scholarship in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and computing posits that AI has the potential to significantly alter political and economic landscapes within states by reconfiguring labor markets, economies, and political alliances, leading to possible societal disruptions. Thus, this study examines the potential destabilizing economic and political effects AI technology can have on societies and the resulting implications for domestic conflict based on research within the fields of political science, sociology, economics, and artificial intelligence. In addition, we conduct interviews with 10 international AI experts from think tanks, academia, multinational technology companies, the military, and cyber to assess the possible disruptive effects of AI and how they can affect domestic conflict. Lastly, the study offers steps governments can take to mitigate the potentially destabilizing effects of AI technology to reduce the likelihood of civil conflict and domestic terrorism within states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of studies have considered the theoretical role that Artificial Intelligence (AI) may play in shaping the global balance of power in the future. While these studies are informative, we currently lack an understanding regarding the precise manner AI technologies are being applied and incorporated in militaries in major power states. Thus, in this study, we examine how AI technology is being applied in the militaries in the US, China, and Russia and analyse the implications for the future of AI, global military competition, and international security. We examine current research on the military application of AI technology in the US, China, and Russia and conduct expert interviews with leading AI experts in academia, think tanks, multinational technology companies, and the military to better understand how AI technology is being applied in the three major powers states and the implications for global security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 1990s, credit rating agencies have played a prominent financial role in developing countries, rating their sovereign bonds and determining capital costs. Over much the same years, domestic terrorism has expanded, increasing market disruptions in countries. Despite the heightened costs related to rebel attacks, few studies investigate the impact of domestic terrorism on bond ratings. Using a sample of seventy-one developing countries between 1996 and 2018, we find that domestic terrorist incidents result in sovereign bond downgrades for countries that receive ratings. Further, when we disaggregate terrorist events by target type, we observe that attacks directed at the government, military and police, business, non-governmental organizations, and private citizens/property have a larger effect than other terrorist incidents. We argue that specific domestic terrorist attacks increase economic instability, leading to capital flight, and a shifting of resources from productive economic sectors to counterterrorism. The resulting economic changes weaken a country's economy and increase debt nonpayment risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Although prior research has investigated how social, economic, and political factors affect civil conflict, empirical scholarship has yet to consider how social media impacts civil conflict. Using cross-national research for up to 157 states from 2000–2019, this study examines the effect social media has on civil conflict. We find that more time spent on social media, greater social media penetration (i.e. the number of users), and the specific manner elites use social media are associated with an increased number and severity of civil conflicts. We also carry out mediation analysis and see that elite use of social media to organize offline political activities, government elites’ dissemination of false information, and political party elites’ dissemination of disinformation are all correlated with an increase in political polarization, and polarization raises the likelihood of civil conflict. Our results indicate the ways social media affects political violence, showing how different communication technologies can serve to exacerbate civil conflict under certain conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The past three decades have seen an increase in both domestic terrorist attacks and loans issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In this study, we investigate the connection between IMF loan arrangements and domestic terrorism. We find that countries under IMF loans tend to observe fewer domestic terrorist incidents, especially when the borrowers are democracies. We contend that, while the IMF pressures borrower countries to prevent money laundering and combat the financing of terrorism, this effect is most pronounced in democracies, whose large selectorates incentivize the provision of public goods in a manner that works to reduce domestic terrorism. Our research shows how domestic and international institutions together can possibly help lower incidents of domestic terrorism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large body of research in international relations has focused on the relationship between regime type (i.e., the degree a nation is democratic or authoritarian) and traditional military conflict between states. However, to date, no research has examined how regime type affects conflict in the cyber domain. Thus, we attempt to analyze the effect regime type has on the initiation of state-sponsored cyberattacks. We examine 143 states from 2005 - 2013 utilizing cyber data on known state-sponsored cyberattacks taken from the Council on Foreign Relations Cyber Operations Tracker dataset (CFR-COTD) and economic, political, military, and social data collected by the authors. In conducting a cross-sectional, time series analysis we find that democratic institutions have a pacifying effect on the initiation of state-sponsored cyberattacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scholars and policymakers often make noticeable distinctions between acts of terrorism and mass shooting incidents. In order to assess if these distinctions are generally accurate, we identity four key criteria from standard international and domestic definitions of terrorism. The criteria include: a political, religious, ideological, or social motivation; intent to reach a larger audience; the motivation not involving personal monetary gain; and the manifestation of an 'enemy/other'. We analyze 105 mass shooting events in the United States from 1982 through October 2018 to assess whether they meet these criteria and find that 41 (39%) incidents meet all four criteria and another 45 (43%) incidents meet three of the criteria to be classified as acts of terrorism. Thus, we contend that mass shooting incidents fit the standard definitions of terrorism to a greater degree than is often reported by government officials, academics, and media outlets. We contend that researchers must be more persistent in investigating the motivations behind mass shooting events in order to accurately label and counter them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A small number of studies have investigated how terrorism influences government policies such as military spending through individual case-study analyses. However, scholars have yet to investigate how terrorism influences defense funding across multiple states and regions. This is surprising since prior research has found that terrorism influences political outcomes a number ways by affecting citizens' emotions such as anxiety and fear. Therefore, this study examines the effect domestic and international terrorism has on military expenditures in 119 states from 1989 to 2012. A cross-sectional time series analysis indicates that terrorism positively affects military spending. However, democratic states are more likely to increase defense funding following terrorist attacks than authoritarian states. Furthermore, international terrorist attacks have the largest effect on defense funding in democracies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large body of research has examined the factors that influence military coups in authoritarian and democratic states. While this research is informative, we contend that three factors are central in assessing the likelihood of military coups in developing democracies: the perception of corruption within regimes, levels of popular support, and the incentives segments of the military have to initiate coups. In utilizing a historical case‐study analysis with six states in Africa, Asia, and Latin America (from 1970‐2010) we find that successful military coups are more likely to occur when the ruling administration is increasingly viewed by the public as being corrupt, is unpopular with large portions of society and key factions within the state, and when segments of the military perceive their position within the state as being threatened by the current regime. These findings have important implications for democratic governance in developing democracies. Related Articles: Hiroi, Taeko, and Sawa Omori. 2013. "Causes and Triggers of Coups d'état: An Event History Analysis." Politics & Policy 41 (1): 39‐64. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12001 Kim, Hae S. 2009. "The Complexities of Internal Conflict in the Third World: Beyond Ethnic and Religious Conflict." Politics & Policy 37 (2): 395‐414. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2009.00177.x/abstract McCarthy‐Jones, Anthea, and Mark Turner. 2015. "Policy Transfer through Time and the Search for Legitimacy in Developing Nations." Politics & Policy 43 (2): 215‐238. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12113 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Through case study analyses a small body of research has focused on the role the internet plays in radicalizing potential lone wolf terrorists. However, scholars have yet to examine how internet connectivity influences terrorism cross-nationally. Thus, this project attempts to address that limitation. This paper examines the effect internet connectivity has on domestic terrorism in 80 democracies from 1992–2012. Using standard controls and multiple connectivity indicators, we find that greater connectivity is associated with increased domestic terrorism. However, the effects of internet connectivity on domestic terrorism are conditioned by levels of state wealth and domestic turmoil within democracies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While numerous studies have examined how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected health care systems, supply chains, and economies, we do not understand how the pandemic has impacted the security of democratic and authoritarian states from a global standpoint. Thus, this study examines how COVID-19 has affected the security of democratic and authoritarian regimes. In conducting a historical, qualitative review of the security effects of the pandemic, we find that COVID-19 significantly affected domestic and international security for democratic and authoritarian states in both similar and varied ways. Additionally, the manner in which states responded to the pandemic was often conditioned by their regime type and by the nature of the governing leadership during the pandemic. These findings have important implications in considering how COVID-19 affected the security of democratic and authoritarian states, how regime type shapes government responses to infectious disease outbreaks, and how democratic and authoritarian states may respond to future pandemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A small number of studies have examined the effect terrorism has on political ideology and vote choice cross-nationally. However, scholars yet to understand how terrorist attack type influences vote choice based on the political ideology of incumbent governments. Thus, we examine the effect domestic and transnational terrorist attacks have on vote choice in legislative elections while accounting for the ideology of the incumbent government. In examining 56 democracies from 1975 – 2014 from various regions and levels of development, we find that domestic attacks, and not transnational, significantly effect both right and left party votes shares when the incumbent party in government is of a similar ideology. We attribute these results to the perception of instability that accompanies domestic attacks and the effects it has on voters’ evaluations of political parties. These findings have important implications for understanding how terrorism influences electoral behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scholars have found that terrorism can influence political behavior in democracies by affecting citizens' emotions such as anxiety and fear. However, researchers have yet to examine how terrorism affects vote choice cross‐nationally. The few studies that have investigated terrorism's effect on vote choice have only examined single states through case study analysis. While informative, researchers lack an understanding regarding how terrorism influences vote choice cross‐nationally based on the nature of terrorist attacks and the ideology of political parties. Thus, using a unique dataset that incorporates political party ideology, this study examines the effect the number and severity of terrorist attacks have on vote choice in legislative elections in 56 democracies from multiple regions and levels of development from 1975 to 2014. Preliminary results indicate that terrorist attacks are critical events that significantly affect vote choice in the democratic states included in this analysis. Our analysis indicates that center parties are more likely to increase their vote shares following terrorist attacks compared with right and leftist parties. In addition, contrary to the assumption that terrorism benefits rightist parties, rightist parties appear to suffer the most electorally following both international and domestic attacks whereas leftist parties lose support following domestic attacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In democracies with stable party systems, voters can more easily trace policy decisions from parties and representatives within the government to specific policy outcomes. Consequently, party system stability (PSS) has been reportedly linked to a variety of factors including economic conditions, democratic performance, political institutions, and socioeconomic cleavages. While informative, these lessons offer precious little insight into other factors that can destabilize a party system. In this work, we surmise that terrorist attacks have important implications for two commonly used measures of PSS. The results of a pooled, cross-sectional time series analysis confirm our hypothesis: deadly attacks proximate to elections destabilize party systems, even when controlling for multiple standard controls. In addition, the level of democratic consolidation within states also influences the degree that fatal terrorist attacks affect party system stability. These findings are based on terrorism data collected from the Global Terrorism Database and from PSS data compiled by the authors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of interstate conflict has yielded a voluminous literature to date, yet much of the recent work has only just begun to underscore the importance of domestic factors in predicting conflict initiation in democracies. In short, some of these studies find that when electoral accountability is greater—measured in a variety of ways—interstate conflict becomes less likely. Despite this burgeoning literature, scholars have spent far less time analysing the role linkage institutions, such as stable party systems, have played in foreign policy discussions. To address this gap, we argue that in more stable party systems conflict initiation becomes less likely due to the greater accountability present in these systems. This conjecture is supported by the results of a time-series cross-sectional analysis of 48 democracies from 1978 to 2000 that uses multiple measures of conflict initiation and party system stability. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Recent work on conflict suggests that electoral systems impact foreign policy-making in important ways; however, the discipline has reached different conclusions regarding how different types of electoral systems affect conflict initiation. In this study we contend that legislators are more accountable individually in candidate-centred electoral systems which impacts a state’s decision to initiate interstate conflict. We test our argument using a time-series cross-sectional analysis of 54 democracies from 1975 to 2001. The results provide strong support for the hypothesis that candidate-centred electoral systems result in less conflict initiation than party-centric systems due to higher levels of individual accountability for legislative members. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This article examines the effect terrorism has on civil liberties and political rights across a wide range of democracies and regions. This study includes an analysis of the influence domestic and international terrorist attacks have on civil liberties and political rights in 48 democratic states from 1971–2007. The results from a time series cross-national analysis reveal that terrorism weakens civil liberties and political rights. However, certain types of democracies are more affected by terrorism than others. These findings have important implications for democracy and counterterrorism strategies in democratic states. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

While elections are viewed as the lynchpin of modern democracies, few works have adequately assessed the role played by political parties in mobilizing voters. Much of the extant work has relied on the number of parties in a party system to estimate the impact on voter turnout; not surprisingly, the voluminous literature on voter turnout has arrived at a theoretical impasse regarding the relationship between party systems and voter turnout. We argue that in order to better understand the relationship between party systems and voter turnout, researchers should consider other relevant party system measures. In particular, several scholars have surmised that party system stability holds numerous implications for democracies, but there has yet to be an empirical analysis of this claim. In this study, we anticipate that lower volatility and replacement rates – both indicating more stable party systems – should have a positive impact on aggregate turnout. Even when including several control variables, the results of our cross-sectional time-series analyses confirm our hypotheses. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]