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This study presents the validation process of the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ) adapted for the IT sector, focusing on its reliability and validity within a German-speaking context (IT professionals in Austria). The COPSOQ is an established instrument for assessing psychosocial work environment factors. While previous research has highlighted its applicability across various cultural settings, this paper delves into its psychometric properties through exploratory factor analysis (EFA) using a sample of 200 IT professionals. The survey, conducted online, adapted the German COPSOQ including additional items relevant to the IT work environment, with some items being removed for greater efficiency and specificity. The analysis yielded seven factors, explaining 52.2% of the variance and reflecting key psychosocial dimensions: job identification, influencing factors, life satisfaction, self-determination, social support, life-dominant balance, and job concerns. The paper argues for the removal of certain items with loadings below.40 to enhance the questionnaire's economy and efficiency. Furthermore, it suggests that the refined COPSOQ could be a more effective tool for assessing work stress among IT workers, potentially leading to better-informed workplace interventions and improved prognosis for employee well-being. This research underscores the importance of adapting psychosocial assessment tools to specific industry contexts, providing a robust foundation for future studies on the work environment and its impact on quality of life and job satisfaction among IT professionals, and addressing global risks associated with workplace stress. Additionally, the paper ties these findings with broader global risks, such as technology-induced stress and the future of work, which are critical for developing resilient organizational frameworks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Our world is characterized by a dynamic landscape of variations, complexities, uncertainties, and ambiguities (VUCA). These elements manifest in various domains, including politics, economics, communication, information, science, and research, all of which significantly impact our lives. It is crucial for policymakers and managers to adopt a forward-thinking approach to comprehend these VUCA elements and their implications for the future. The future will undoubtedly differ from the present and the past. However, humans possess an inherent desire to understand and anticipate the future, particularly in the face of uncertainty. Therefore, exploring and understanding the future is not just a curiosity, but a necessity. Futures Studies can serve as a valuable tool in this context, enabling us to efficiently leverage opportunities and resources to navigate the chaotic environment. Review studies play a pivotal role in this process by reviewing existing work and synthesizing knowledge in a specific field. This study aims to collate findings related to the key concepts of Futures Research, thereby contributing to our collective understanding and preparation for the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Science, technology, and innovation policy-making laboratories, by providing policymakers with educational, research, and consulting services, before the introduction of policy recommendations to the regulatory and legal structures, make it possible to test the policies on a small scale. Thus, the waste of huge resources allocated to the development of political solutions and additional damages may be prevented. On the other hand, future research as a process gives a more complete understanding of the forces of the long-term future, which should be taken into account in developing policy-making, planning, and decision-making. Therefore, future research of science, technology, and innovation policy-making laboratories to synchronize with today's world and for optimal policies is a necessity addressed in the present study. This study was applied in terms of objective and mixed in terms of method (literature review). In this survey, experts' opinions, interaction analysis, and scenarios have been used. The approach of the present study was future research. For data analysis, the SPSS, MicMac, and ScenarioWizard were used. The statistical population included a group of experts in the field of science, technology, and innovation policy-making. The analysis of data related to different states using ScenarioWizard showed that the probability of occurrence of 9 scenarios was more than other scenarios and the probability of occurrence of other 297 scenarios was very small and weak. The initial review of the scenarios showed the relative dominance of static state over desired and critical states. Out of 9 scenarios, 4 scenarios were strong and more probable. Scenario 1 with an impact score of 221 was the strongest, most desired, and most probable scenario facing science, technology, and innovation policy-making laboratories. Scenario 2 with an impact score of 181 was one of the most desired and probable scenarios facing science, technology, and innovation policy-making laboratories. Scenario 3 had an impact score of 102. Under this scenario, 4 key influencing driving forces were desired and 8 key influencing driving forces were static. Scenario 4 had an impact score of 65. Under this scenario, 8 key influencing driving forces were static and 4 key influencing driving forces were undesired. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This study presents the validation process of the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ) adapted for the IT sector, focusing on its reliability and validity within a German-speaking context (IT professionals in Austria). The COPSOQ is an established instrument for assessing psychosocial work environment factors. While previous research has highlighted its applicability across various cultural settings, this paper delves into its psychometric properties through exploratory factor analysis (EFA) using a sample of 200 IT professionals. The survey, conducted online, adapted the German COPSOQ including additional items relevant to the IT work environment, with some items being removed for greater efficiency and specificity. The analysis yielded seven factors, explaining 52.2% of the variance and reflecting key psychosocial dimensions: job identification, influencing factors, life satisfaction, self-determination, social support, life-dominant balance, and job concerns. The paper argues for the removal of certain items with loadings below .40 to enhance the questionnaire's economy and efficiency. Furthermore, it suggests that the refined COPSOQ could be a more effective tool for assessing work stress among IT workers, potentially leading to better-informed workplace interventions and improved prognosis for employee well-being. This research underscores the importance of adapting psychosocial assessment tools to specific industry contexts, providing a robust foundation for future studies on the work environment and its impact on quality of life and job satisfaction among IT professionals, and addressing global risks associated with workplace stress. Additionally, the paper ties these findings with broader global risks, such as technology-induced stress and the future of work, which are critical for developing resilient organizational frameworks.

Science, technology, and innovation policy-making laboratories, by providing policymakers with educational, research, and consulting services, before the introduction of policy recommendations to the regulatory and legal structures, make it possible to test the policies on a small scale. Thus, the waste of huge resources allocated to the development of political solutions and additional damages may be prevented. On the other hand, future research as a process gives a more complete understanding of the forces of the long-term future, which should be taken into account in developing policy-making, planning, and decision-making. Therefore, future research of science, technology, and innovation policy-making laboratories to synchronize with today's world and for optimal policies is a necessity addressed in the present study. This study was applied in terms of objective and mixed in terms of method (literature review). In this survey, experts' opinions, interaction analysis, and scenarios have been used. The approach of the present study was future research. For data analysis, the SPSS, MicMac, and ScenarioWizard were used. The statistical population included a group of experts in the field of science, technology, and innovation policy-making. The analysis of data related to different states using ScenarioWizard showed that the probability of occurrence of 9 scenarios was more than other scenarios and the probability of occurrence of other 297 scenarios was very small and weak. The initial review of the scenarios showed the relative dominance of static state over desired and critical states. Out of 9 scenarios, 4 scenarios were strong and more probable. Scenario 1 with an impact score of 221 was the strongest, most desired, and most probable scenario facing science, technology, and innovation policy-making laboratories. Scenario 2 with an impact score of 181 was one of the most desired and probable scenarios facing science, technology, and innovation policy-making laboratories. Scenario 3 had an impact score of 102. Under this scenario, 4 key influencing driving forces were desired and 8 key influencing driving forces were static. Scenario 4 had an impact score of 65. Under this scenario, 8 key influencing driving forces were static and 4 key influencing driving forces were undesired.

This concept paper explores possible collective identities for a future wildland fire workforce. Taking inspiration from the work of futurists who foresee an end to the dominant fire exclusion/suppression paradigm, and assuming that an emerging fire restoration/resilience paradigm shift replaces it, this paper engages in speculative explorations of the process and product of this paradigm shift with respect to the future collective identities of a workforce conducting ecological fire management. Social constructionist assumptions from symbolic interactionist sociological theory, Gramscian political theory's concept of hegemony, and new social movement theory's concept of collective identity all provide the intellectual foundations for the discussion. This concept paper argues that in order to actualize a paradigm shift, more than advances in scientific research or reforms of government policies will be required—the wildland fire community will need to become (or join) a social movement engaged in collective actions. An imaginary social movement, the "Greenfire revolution," is invented to help illustrate how the selected theories and concepts might apply in the social construction of ecological fire management and the collective identities of its future workforce. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Our world is characterized by a dynamic landscape of variations, complexities, uncertainties, and ambiguities (VUCA). These elements manifest in various domains, including politics, economics, communication, information, science, and research, all of which significantly impact our lives. It is crucial for policymakers and managers to adopt a forward-thinking approach to comprehend these VUCA elements and their implications for the future. The future will undoubtedly differ from the present and the past. However, humans possess an inherent desire to understand and anticipate the future, particularly in the face of uncertainty. Therefore, exploring and understanding the future is not just a curiosity, but a necessity. Futures Studies can serve as a valuable tool in this context, enabling us to efficiently leverage opportunities and resources to navigate the chaotic environment. Review studies play a pivotal role in this process by reviewing existing work and synthesizing knowledge in a specific field. This study aims to collate findings related to the key concepts of Futures Research, thereby contributing to our collective understanding and preparation for the future.

Abstract Re-reading the risk literature, I sketch a novel nomenclature for 36 dyadic risk interactions that constitute the prototypes of what eventually become cascading effects. This analysis demonstrates where cascading risk effects originate and also hints at how they get their enormous power. Risk dyads derive from basic first-order interactions across six disruptive forces: sci-tech, governance, economics, social dynamics, ecological impact, and health adversity. I give brief examples of each and provide a short case description of six of the most prominent dyads. Very few of these dyads have an existing shorthand. The exception is NaTech, which denotes natural disasters being amplified by, or amplifying industrial risk, or now more broadly, sci-tech-derived risk. By generalizing the NaTech-style nomenclature across domains, I aim to provide the basic building blocks for a precise understanding of contemporary risk mechanics. This step is often skipped by avid complexity scholars intent on first describing system-wide features. Yet, dyadic analysis is an important prerequisite for systemic understanding of complex cascading effects that depend on triadic or tetradic risk relationships. In reality, even if systemic, and existential risks, as they emerge in the twenty-first century, depend on a myriad of cascading effects, they cannot be fully understood simply by looking at the whole system and attempting to analytically ignore its constituent parts claiming to gain a better overview.

Design Futures is herewith proposed and discussed as a conceptualization of existing methodological streams in corporate design history, in the analysis of Italian Design Districts, and in other creative industry fields, inspiring a fundamental tension to anticipate what will come next, which artists, architects and designers naturally embody. Purpose of this paper is to identify some examples of anticipatory movements, to then contextualize them in their historical background, thereby scoping the domain of Design Futures at least at the level of a first draft, in progress. In the rich history of art, architecture, and design, the selection herewith presented is purely exemplificatory and not intended yet as a systematic, complete, critical review on universal terms.

Introduction: Environmental disasters, stakeholder pressure, and global trends have caused the discussion of new energies and businesses in this field to be the focus of researchers. In Iran, the issue of sanctions, dependence of industries on fossil fuels and the traditional mentality of managers has restricted growth and development of clean energy. Development in this field requires a correct understanding of the future and fundamental planning. Without paying attention to financing, which is one of the most important challenges for the development of any business, it will not be possible to continue the activity. Therefore, the current research identified drivers and investment scenarios in the field of clean energy.Materials and Methods: The current research is pragmatic in terms of philosophy and applied in terms of orientation. Also, this study is exploratory in terms of objective and mixed in terms of methodology. The statistical population of the research were experts in the field of clean energy and financing. Using judgmental sampling, 15 managers working in Iran Renewable Energy Association, Iran Energy Association, Environmental Protection Organization and university professors in the relevant fields have been used. The research has been done in five steps. In the first step, key drivers were identified through background review and interviews with experts. In the second step, the drivers were screened through an expert questionnaire and using the fuzzy Delphi method. In the third step, the screened propellants were analyzed through the effect measurement questionnaire and using the fuzzy Dimetal method, and the final propellants were identified based on the degree of effectiveness. In the fourth step, believable scenarios were developed using CATWOE. The probable scenario was identified with CODAS technique.Results: By reviewing the background and interviewing experts, 24 drivers were extracted. Using the fuzzy Delphi method, 12 drivers whose diphasis number was higher than the threshold (0.7) were selected. Then, with the Fuzzy Dimetal technique, the two drivers of the laws related to the energy field and the government's view on the need to enter the field of clean energy were identified and evaluated as suitable for the development of scenarios. Based on these two drivers, four scenarios of soul prison, auspicious, Anti-innovation culture, and poisonous structure were developed. The soul prison scenario depicts the pessimistic future and the auspicious scenario shows the best scenario. Then, using CODAS technique, the soul prison scenario was selected as the most probable scenario.Discussion: Policy makers should try to make Karmiar's ideal scenario happen instead of realizing the soul prison scenario, which happens to be the worst scenario. For this purpose, laws and policies should be established to improve the business environment in the field of clean energy. Such laws should remove obstacles to attract foreign capital while increasing domestic capital. These laws should enable the transfer of advanced technologies through fiscal and financial support. The view of government officials on the need to enter into clean energy as the second most important driver has cultural roots and originates from managers' ignorance of clean energy and its advantages in the business environment. For this reason, universities, research centers, social media, non-governmental organizations supporting the environment, global and regional developments and environmental disasters play an important role in changing this attitude. In Iran, because managers are forced to accept change at the last moment, change is sudden and has increasing costs. It is hard to expect change without doing inclusive and spontaneous cultural work. Cultivation plays an important role in favoring green products. In addition, changing the attitude of managers can lead to the facilitation of financing as a key challenge in the field of clean energy.

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Abstract During a Futures Study, researchers analyze a significant quantity of information dispersed across multiple document databases to gather conjectures about future events, making it challenging for researchers to retrieve all predicted events described in publications quickly. Generating a timeline of future events is time-consuming and prone to errors, requiring a group of experts to execute appropriately. This work introduces NERMAP, a system capable of semi-automating the process of discovering future events, organizing them in a timeline through Named Entity Recognition supported by machine learning, and gathering up to 83% of future events found in documents when compared to humans. The system identified future events that we failed to detect during the tests. Using the system allows researchers to perform the analysis in significantly less time, thus reducing costs. Therefore, the proposed approach enables a small group of researchers to efficiently process and analyze a large volume of documents, enhancing their capability to identify and comprehend information in a timeline while minimizing costs.

This concept paper explores possible collective identities for a future wildland fire workforce. Taking inspiration from the work of futurists who foresee an end to the dominant fire exclusion/suppression paradigm, and assuming that an emerging fire restoration/resilience paradigm shift replaces it, this paper engages in speculative explorations of the process and product of this paradigm shift with respect to the future collective identities of a workforce conducting ecological fire management. Social constructionist assumptions from symbolic interactionist sociological theory, Gramscian political theory’s concept of hegemony, and new social movement theory’s concept of collective identity all provide the intellectual foundations for the discussion. This concept paper argues that in order to actualize a paradigm shift, more than advances in scientific research or reforms of government policies will be required—the wildland fire community will need to become (or join) a social movement engaged in collective actions. An imaginary social movement, the “Greenfire revolution,” is invented to help illustrate how the selected theories and concepts might apply in the social construction of ecological fire management and the collective identities of its future workforce.

Today the financial technology industry(FinTech)is developing more and more than in the past and has attracted the attention of users.In this regard, FinTech startups have tried to expand their activities by attracting users and diversifying the services they can provide.Undoubtedly they will play a more colorful role in the financial system of Iran in the coming years.Therefore, the decision makers in the banking and financial industry of the country need to know the possible future of these startups.The purpose of this research is to investigate the position of fintech start-ups in Iran's financial system in2031and it is of a qualitative and practical type, its statistical population includes experts in the financial field,bank managers, managers of fintech start-ups and politics.The snowball method was used for sampling and15people were selected purposefully and using the analysis of cross effects,influential factors and key components were extracted, then using Scenario Wizard software for structural analysis and checking how these factors affect Also,the extraction of scenario spaces has been used, and finally,4compatible and probable scenarios related to the future of startups in the fintech industry include conquering the territory(complete dominance of startups)competition in conquering the industry(competition of banks and startups)remaining(the lack of acceptance by users and the banking industry of start-ups)and the gradual death of a dream(failure of start-ups)have been extracted and described.After narrating the scenarios and through the findings of the expert panel and summarizing them, an attempt was made to provide strategic recommendations for the managers and policymakers regarding the future of fintech startups.

The current text pursues an argument in favor of unorthodox and unrestrained futures thinking defying what is usually considered to constitute a sound political judgement. Accordingly, the efforts in this paper are directed at finding a way to establish the reasonableness and coherence of alternative images of the future that are usually deemed implausible remote possibilities by the political realm. The problem that this endeavor represents will be approached from two conceptual vantage points that would eventually converge – the first one concentrating on the issue of plausibility, and the other – on the utility of counterfactuality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During a Futures Study, researchers analyze a significant quantity of information dispersed across multiple document databases to gather conjectures about future events, making it challenging for researchers to retrieve all predicted events described in publications quickly. Generating a timeline of future events is time-consuming and prone to errors, requiring a group of experts to execute appropriately. This work introduces NERMAP, a system capable of semi-automating the process of discovering future events, organizing them in a timeline through Named Entity Recognition supported by machine learning, and gathering up to 83% of future events found in documents when compared to humans. The system identified future events that we failed to detect during the tests. Using the system allows researchers to perform the analysis in significantly less time, thus reducing costs. Therefore, the proposed approach enables a small group of researchers to efficiently process and analyze a large volume of documents, enhancing their capability to identify and comprehend information in a timeline while minimizing costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I argue that analyzing pursuitworthiness in science requires that we study possible futures of science. The merits of different criteria of pursuitworthiness need to be assessed against scenarios of the future of science. Different criteria recognize and ignore different scenarios. As a consequence, different criteria enable us to manage different future possibilities. While it might be impossible to predict the future of science, there are still many interesting things we can say about the possible futures of science. We can construct scenarios of the future of science on the basis of philosophical accounts of science. I point out that the topic of pursuitworthiness is not the only topic that can be approached by connecting philosophy of science with the construction of scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foresight science is a systematic approach to generate future predictions for planning and management by drawing upon analytical and predictive tools to understand the past and present, while providing insights about the future. To illustrate the application of foresight science in conservation, we present three case studies: identification of emerging risks to conservation, conservation of at-risk species, and aid in the development of management strategies for multiple stressors. We highlight barriers to mainstreaming foresight science in conservation including knowledge accessibility/organization, communication across diverse stakeholders/decision makers, and organizational capacity. Finally, we investigate opportunities for mainstreaming foresight science including continued advocacy to showcase its application, incorporating emerging technologies (i.e., artificial intelligence) to increase capacity/decrease costs, and increasing education/training in foresight science via specialized courses and curricula for trainees and practicing professionals. We argue that failure to mainstream foresight science will hinder the ability to achieve future conservation objectives in the Anthropocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite physical education teacher education/physical education sport pedagogy's (PETE/PESP's) significant strides in the past century, there are concerns about its future. Grounded in participatory research, and through an interview-Delphi method, this study purposefully sampled five male PETE/PESP scholars' expert critiques of current threats, projections of probable and preferable futures, and recommendations for transformation. Data were analyzed through an interpretive approach. Findings included: (a) limitations in physical education policy, teacher preparation, and status as key threats; (b) more of the same conflicts in the probable future and increased cooperation regarding conflicts in the preferable future; and (c) proactively revising the subdisciplinary framework and doctoral studies as transformative recommendations. We interpret issues critiqued as threatening PETE/PESP's future, and projections of the probable future, as reflective of neoliberal rationality that has renormalized academic work in de-democratizing ways. We interpret that projections of preferable futures and transformative recommendations call for a re-emphasis on ethical academic attitudes to resist neoliberalization and reclaim democracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The World Future Day is a 24-h round-the-world global conversation about the futures and represents a new kind of futures method. Launched for the first time by the Millennium Project in 2014, it is an open large-scale global participatory discussion among self-selected future-oriented people from around the world. The work introduces the main characteristics of the WFD method, the protocol of analysis, first considerations about its strengths and weaknesses, and the main results of the 2021 application on March 1. The results are reported in form of suggestions and solutions aggregated in clusters and macro-clusters related to some of the global challenges facing humanity and set a common agenda for further discussion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sporting events are one of the most notable phenomena in the world that are related to the international status of countries and show the level of development of countries and indicate the status of many indicators in countries, so ensuring the security of these events is a very important concern. With the change of interests and tastes of the audience and the development of technologies, the future of the security of sporting events are faced with many uncertainties. The intuitive logic approach (Peter Schwartz's eight-step method) has been used for screenwriting. Data collection tools included a systematic review of resources, interviews with experts, holding an expert panel and Delphi Online, and MigMac software and script wizard, as well as expert analysis, were used to analyze the data. In the first step, seven Propulsion include: disciplinary-security management of sporting events, human resource management, and preparedness of executive agents of events, infrastructure and security standards, new security technologies, monitoring and regulation of sporting events, coordination, and communication of responsible organizations, the establishment of command and control center operations and the appointment of club security officers were identified. Using Mick Mac software, structural analysis was performed and with the help of the Delphi process, after determining the uncertainties, the scenarios were identified and extracted as follows: a) Spontaneous security scenario b) Rifle security scenario C) Cemetery security scenario. These scenarios show that the police, as an important part of the armed forces, are responsible for the order and security of society.

Background: Nowadays, educational management deals with many issues such as the future and its prospects, organizational changes and emerging businesses that require serious attention from management scholars and experts. Paying attention to the element of futures and futurism in educational management studies, in today's business world and its rapid changes, will greatly contribute to the dynamics and development of educational management that has been overlooked so far. Aims: The future of educational management studies was modeled by scenario modeling and global business networking model. Method: The research was qualitative. The statistical population of the study consisted of educational management thinkers and experts who simultaneously had expertise and experience in future research studies and scenario modeling. The research tool in this study was semi-structured interviews to prioritize effective proponents of future educational management studies. Data analysis was performed using Friedman test and hierarchical analysis. Results: The future of educational management studies were influenced by two main proponents of "mass media" and "cultural identity" (p= 0/027). Conclusions: Interaction of mass media and cultural identity constituted the four "evolutionary", "media", "cultural" and "alienation" scenarios, each of which represented a specific situation of the future of educational management studies.

The contemporary world is full of unexpected events and uncertainties. Futures research is an approach that can eliminate ambiguities and allow for greater understanding of the future. In recent years, researchers have proposed a variety of methods for future research that the selection of the appropriate method with regard to the field of application and influential indicators will be a challenging and complex decision. Especially in the field of defense; because of: dynamics and agility of the environment, ambiguous and uncertain conditions, wide range of influencing variables and the variety of assignment missions; the choice of futures method will be more important and complex. Identification and prioritization of influential criteria can help experts in this field to make the best decision and improve organizational performance. For this purpose, in this study two methods of fuzzy Delphi and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) have been used. Applying fuzzy logic in addition to expert-based approaches (Delphi and hierarchical analysis) along with the consensus of experts also takes into account the uncertainties in human judgments. In the purpose dimension, present study is in the applied research group and in the method dimension, in the descriptive survey research group that has been analyzed by a mixed (qualitative and quantitative) approach. Finally, 12 criteria for evaluating defense research futures were identified, weighed and prioritized.

Ethnographic futures research (EFR) is a participatory research method that allows the researcher(s) and Indigenous people to explore sustainability together. The method is in alliance with Indigenous methodologies and provides a space for storytelling and trust-building between all participants. EFR develops a proactive attitude toward the future and helps people find their place in the future, exploring what they can do to achieve the future they want. The method helps participants clarify their values and goals in order to be an active participant in the future. In this paper, the author explains how EFR may be a particularly productive method to explore sustainability with Indigenous people as it utilizes a three-scenario methodology of the optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely futures. A case study, using information from the author's dissertation, will show the utility of EFR by exploring how the three scenarios lead to more insight about sustainability for the community. The article goal is to demonstrate that EFR is in alliance with Indigenous methodologies, provides benefits for the participants, and allows a community to explore how to live sustainably, creating indicators for sustainability which can lead to strategic planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research context for this article is a specific lighting industry professional event, focusing on the possible future of light across the dimensions of body, object (both human-scale and building), and metropolis. Light becomes the theme to generate visions and insights about longer term developments from personal, social, and business viewpoints. The event was designed as a location-specific format for the multi-awarded Silo 486, Helsinki, by Lighting Design Collective. The format is inspired by Brian Eno's 1970s "Oblique Strategies," therefore an approach derived from fine arts and popular culture, within the constructivist episteme. The specific target of this event is thought leaders and/or the next generation of architectural, design, and creative industry leaders, with an invitation list of 15–20, selected according to the "Elite Club" open innovation principle (Verganti et al., 2008). The event was held three times, from 2014 through 2016, during the Helsinki Design Week, as integral part of its program. The authors were main initiator and moderator of the event, as they designed the format in 2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The gender gap in futures research, rooted in male dominance, results in limited visibility of female futurists and neglect of women's issues. This study focuses on the gender data gap as an indicator of the existing gender gap in futures research and analyze the literature employing the Delphi technique—a widely employed research method in this field. When societal gender gaps influence data collection and utilization, a gender data gap arises, leading to underrepresentation of women's perspectives and experiences. The Delphi method, operates on the principle of expertise, may inadvertently exclude women experts whose expertise tends to be underrecognized. Our analysis, based on Temin and Roca (2016)'s definition of gender data, shows the gender data gap in the futures research literature. The gender gap in futures research, demonstrated by gender data gap, not only colonizes women's futures, but also impedes the potential for planning, social decision-making, and policies aimed at fostering a gender-equitable future. Futures research holds the potential to serve as a tool for decolonization. To achieve a future free of gender disparities, it's imperative to address issues directly relevant to women but also crucial for humanity as the main challenges of futures research and ensure women's participation. • When societal gender gaps influence data collection and utilization, a gender data gap arises. • This study focuses on a gender data gap as a measure of the gender gap that exist in futures research. • The analysis of the futures research literature employing a Delphi survey revealed several significant gender data gaps. • The gender gap in futures research, demonstrated by gender data gap, contributes to colonizes women's futures. • Additionally, it impedes the potential for planning and social decision-making aimed at fostering a gender-equitable future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The aim of this study is to present the future approach of marketing research of water pools according to the health status in the post-corona period. Material and Methods: This study was conducted with an integrated approach. In the first step, by examining the thematic literature and using futuristic research technique, the initial conceptual model was extracted with a deductive (quantitative) approach and then inductively (qualitatively) the model was obtained and completed. Finally, the designed model was tested using Mick Mac analysis. In the qualitative section, based on the content analysis of the studies, 23 drivers were finally identified for the future of Tehran pool water marketing research. In order to identify and classify the identified indicators, Mick Mac analysis in MICMAC software was used. The study population was sports management experts and managers of Tehran water pools. 20 people were identified as a sample by snowball technique. Results: A set of drivers (23 drivers) in the dimensions of personnel, customer, children, elderly, physical services, planning services, special services, location, environment, shower and locker room, health, direct advertising, strategy, ticket, political, economic, social, Culture, construction and rent, competitors, laws, championships and subsidies were recognized as effective studies. Conclusion: Based on Mick Mac analysis or in other words, Mick Mac analysis, economic drivers-economic-laws-subsidies-construction and rent)environmental-health were identified as influential variables. Based on this, the scenario of financing and policy-making in order to increase the quality of existing pools, attracting financial support was proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the challenge posed by social media and the participatory turn concerns culture and values at the very heart of journalism, journalists have been reluctant to adopt participatory values and practices. To encourage audience participation and to offer journalism that is both trustworthy and engaging, journalists of the future may embrace a hybrid practice of journalistic objectivity and audience-centred dialogue. As innovative and experimental actors, entrepreneurial journalism outlets can perform as forerunners of such a culture. By analysing discourses in the “About Us” pages of 41 entrepreneurial journalism outlets, the article examines the emerging journalistic ethos of entrepreneurial journalism and its participatory tendencies. The results show a conception of journalism that is a hybrid of the journalistic ideals of dialogue and objectivity. This kind of hybrid journalism and adjacent “hybrid engagement” can offer an answer to the dual challenge of how to make journalism more participation-friendly while at the same time hold on to the defining values and criteria of journalism. Drawing from futures research, the article concludes by sketching four scenarios of how entrepreneurial journalism and participatory hybrid engagement may develop in the future.

Many African countries have developed policies to reform their education system in order to widen participation in higher education. To achieve this, open, online and distance education based models have been advocated as the most viable delivery tools in expanding access to higher education. However, the policy analysis of Kenya, Rwanda and Zambia revealed that the integration of open, online and distance education in these countries’ education systems is inadequate. The purpose of this study is to analyse policies in order to determine why policy goals are not achieved and how the present reality and the past knowledge impacts on the desired outcome. The future research methods of forecasting is used because it looks at policy interventions with the aim of assisting us to understand probable development in education that may have led to the weak implementation of the policies.

Critically re-imagining our energy systems is a major task for addressing climate change. Technological change or market signals do not automatically create new energy futures. Rather, political priorities and action shape the ambitions behind energy transitions. In response, this special issue is dedicated to re-thinking energy futures related to climate change, with attention to the social values and norms, hierarchical structures, and social imaginaries underlying decision-making in a carbon-constrained world. Three cross-cutting themes run across this special issue. First, the papers identify new ways of envisioning and creating low-carbon energy futures that engage a range of social actors. Second, the papers highlight the need for analyses that bridge the global and local scales. Third, this issue emphasizes the importance of dialogue across disciplinary perspectives to strengthen the role of environmental social science in decision-making and community responses to climate change and energy futures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The key question behind this article is, How is AI impacting futures research, with particular focus on foresight and design futures? To address such question, this article reports on selected epistemological and methodological traits of design futures research, on the nature of Artificial Intelligence (AI), and the potential impact of AI on the design futures domain, offering a conceptual model as theoretical junction between the domains of foresight and design. Key topics and themes addressed were selectively focused on foresight, design, design futures, weak signals, and their role in relationship with visioning and the image, AI, and a multidisciplinary discussion of how these fields relate to each other. This article is based on desk research and dialogue among the two authors, both profiled professional experts in their respective fields of design futures and AI, with a track of experience both in academic and applied research. Therefore, sources include a rich texture of bibliographic information, combined with selected input from ongoing research activities on AI and related trends, as performed in the professional field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Artificial intelligence (AI) has surpassed the level of science fiction; it is increasingly being used as an analysis tool in modern scientific research. AI is able to classify and cluster large amounts of data in a short time, which could potentially save a lot of time and money. Algorithms can also recognize patterns that scientists might overlook. These advantages are currently hardly exploited in futures studies. This article will focus on the impact of AI on the activities of a futurist. A distinction is made between predicting, exploring, and creating the future. The aim of this article is to discuss the possibilities and challenges of using AI in futures studies. One of the biggest challenges of using AI in futures studies is the dependence of AI on large amounts of data which are not available about the future. We therefore have to work with historical data. I emphasize that it is crucial for futurists to take advantage of the opportunities that AI offers in futures studies, but to be well aware of its disadvantages and limitations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article argues that futures studies practice must have relevance and meaning for society and organizations—that is, it should be affective—and that it should be evaluated as such. Evaluation should be process-based, specifically by observing the way futures studies as a profession is managed and interacts with society. Within this context, "evaluation" is defined as merit determination through process review, using as central norm the raison d'être for futures studies, namely, it must enhance better long-term decision making in organizations and in society. Affectiveness is an emergent quality. Emergence is a property that a whole (such as the subject area of futures studies) displays which is not apparent in its parts. In other words, it is a property that emerges from the interactions between the parts of the whole. With this in mind, futures studies can be visualized as an "application system" comprising of various specialized subsystems such as conceptual development, methodological development, scanning and trend research, scenario development, and idealized planning. The article defends and proposes a process-based approach to the evaluation of affectiveness: one that is based on a heuristic learning and dialogue design in the practice of futures studies. The quest for affectiveness is a journey toward an ideal, perhaps never to be reached but forever a guide toward improving the relevance and meaning of an important profession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Futures research is a transdisciplinary field of inquiry that uses a variety of methods to explore possible, plausible, and preferable futures. The goal is to develop foresight—insight into how and why the future could be different than today—to improve policy, planning, and decision making. Scores of futures research methods have been developed or adapted from other disciplines, beginning with pioneering work in the US military and RAND Corporation in the 1950s and 1960s. But many social scientists and natural resource professionals are unaware of these methods and most have never heard of futures research as a distinct field of study. This paper presents a framework for categorizing futures research methods, reviews selected methods, and provides examples of their application to natural resource and environmental issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper analyzes the images of the future of Russia, which exist in the conscience of representatives of the modern Russian society. We have developed a comprehensive humanitarian analysis (CHA), which allows us to find a common denominator of social expectations in sources of different types. We introduce into scientific research such groups of sources as scientific forecasts, government and political programs, opinion polls and works of modern Russian literature. The results of our study include a description of the image of the future, which we have designated as "its own way" and two options of this way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current design approaches are not focused on yielding computer-based information systems which are robust to rapidly changing environments. The 1990s are bringing with them an increasing inter-organizational locus of information systems, a tighter coupling of information systems to strategic management, and an increasing turbulence of operational environments. In combination, these factors are making robustness under dynamic conditions a key effectiveness requirement of many large computer-based information systems. Coming from a strategic planning perspective, this paper explores the challenge of designing robust information systems and suggests some prescriptive guidelines for improving the process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spectrum scarcity forces mobile network operators (MNOs) providing mobile broadband services to develop new business models that address spectrum sharing. It engages MNOs into coopetitive relationship with incumbents. Licensed Shared Access (LSA) concept complements traditional licensing and helps MNOs to access new spectrum bands on a shared basis. This paper discusses spectrum sharing with LSA from business perspective. It describes how coopetition and business model are linked conceptually, and identifies the influence of coopetition on future business models in LSA. We develop business models for dominant and challenger MNOs in traditional licensing and future with LSA. The results indicate that coopetition and business model concepts are linked via value co-creation and value co-capture. LSA offers different business opportunities to dominant and challenger MNOs. Offering, value proposition, customer segments and differentiation in business models become critical in mobile broadband.

The goal of this paper is to show how the methodology and approach of futures studies could be useful in the research of social futuring. First of all, I define futures studies and social futuring and analyse the evolution of futures studies to show how methods have changed and how they could prove useful in the fi eld of social futuring. Furthermore, I examine individual and organizational future orientation and the related "foresight maturity model" that is linked to the idea of social futuring. I compare future orientation indices (e.g. SOFI, JKB) and point out the pros and cons of each. In addition, I also show what kinds of measurement and indices of future orientation could be used in the analysis of individual, organizational and national social futuring. The findings provide support for the argument that foresight methodology provides an appropriate toolkit for social futuring research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within the field of climate change adaptation research, "stories" are usually simply mined for data, developed as communication and engagement technologies, and used to envision different futures. But there are other ways of understanding people's narratives. This article explores how we can move away from understanding stories as cultural constructs that represent a reality and toward understanding them as the way in which adaptation is lived. The article investigates questions such as the following: As climate adaptation researchers, what can and should we do when we are told unsolicited stories? How can storytelling, as a way of life rather than as a source of data, inform and elaborate scientific approaches to adaptation research and planning? In this article, I move away from the literature that seeks to develop narrative methods in adaptation science. Instead, I focus on stories that we do not elicit and the world-making practice of storytelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the challenge posed by social media and the participatory turn concerns culture and values at the very heart of journalism, journalists have been reluctant to adopt participatory values and practices. To encourage audience participation and to offer journalism that is both trustworthy and engaging, journalists of the future may embrace a hybrid practice of journalistic objectivity and audience-centred dialogue. As innovative and experimental actors, entrepreneurial journalism outlets can perform as forerunners of such a culture. By analysing discourses in the "About Us" pages of 41 entrepreneurial journalism outlets, the article examines the emerging journalistic ethos of entrepreneurial journalism and its participatory tendencies. The results show a conception of journalism that is a hybrid of the journalistic ideals of dialogue and objectivity. This kind of hybrid journalism and adjacent "hybrid engagement" can offer an answer to the dual challenge of how to make journalism more participation-friendly while at the same time hold on to the defining values and criteria of journalism. Drawing from futures research, the article concludes by sketching four scenarios of how entrepreneurial journalism and participatory hybrid engagement may develop in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article advocates that business schools include a formalized foresight educational experience more widely in their curriculums. As a group charged with educating business leaders of tomorrow, the cultivation of the skill-set and mind-set necessary for anticipating change and positioning organizations for future success and survival should no longer be left to chance. For the past decade, the Mendoza College of Business at the University of Notre Dame has required all undergraduate students to take a course titled Foresight in Business and Society. During this time, the Mendoza foresight faculty team has gained perspective on the design and value of a futures research learning experience for our students. Five underlying design principles are presented that have shaped the delivery and execution of the course these revolve around: developing great leaders, confronting ambiguous questions, experiential understanding, rigorous exploration, and anticipation as a force for good. As with any design-based perspective, the article concludes with challenges and pitfalls in recognition that the process is not always linear or smooth. But to other educators on this journey, the challenges are manageable and the promise and prospects for students makes it worthwhile. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public policies address societal problems. The problems chased by the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union (EU) have been persistent. The institutional and political economy reasons for this setting have been discussed widely, but the role of the problems lack robust analysis. This study contributes to an explicit understanding of the CAP problems as a system of wicked problems. Wicked problems escape simple and final solutions and form an interconnected ‘jam’, where each resolution generates a cascade of new problems and collateral damages. The CAP problematics are analysed with the systems dynamics methodology, causal loop diagrams. A system of CAP problems was reconstructed based on the content analysis of survey data for 52 Finnish experts, representing various dimensions of the CAP in a balanced manner. Abstraction and categorisation of the 303 listed problems to be addressed by the CAP in the future resulted in 22 key problems under five domains (socio-environmental, spatial, policy, market, farming). The problems formed three agglomerations with reinforcing causal loops: the subsystems of competitiveness, sustainability, and heterogeneity. The full system of CAP problems comprised 114 causal links across all five domains. The problems also had varying positions in the network regarding connectivity and causation. For example, multidimensional sustainable development qualified as the most networked problem, free trade with divergent farming regulations was the most extensively wired driver problem, and competitiveness and incomes in agriculture was the most extensively connected dependent problem. Extending the time horizon from 2020 to 2040 indicates that the negative impact of climate change on food production capacity and food security would accentuate; otherwise, the CAP policy makers would be stuck with, more or less, path-dependent problematics. The results confirm that CAP problems exhibit all ten properties of wicked problems and constitute a tightly wired and evolving complex adaptive system. Solutions to these types of problems should not be chased with a domain-specific approach, as spatial, farming, market, or environmental problems, but rather as networked, driver, dependent, and punctuated problems observing systems dynamics. This problem network status strongly affects the possibilities and feasible means to find better trade-offs between the problems; notably, complete solutions should not be expected due to the systemic and wicked properties of the CAP problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although education policies in many African countries refer to the need for distance education to widen participation in universities, they have not articulated guidelines on how they plan to develop systems and structures that will support it. The purpose of this study was to develop a policy framework specific for distance education provision in conventional universities. A two-step approach was utilised to guide the process of the development of the framework. The first step was to analyse national education policies, which provide the educational vision of the country. The second step was to analyse distance education policy frameworks in order to provide specific criteria that need to be met when providing distance education. Futures research methodology was employed to look at policy interventions with the aim of identifying probable development in education that may influence distance education practices within the conventional university context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this article is to review the futures studies activities performed in Finland, focusing especially on Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC). The activities include research, education as well as societal interaction and networking. The FFRC has proceeded from a small unit of three devoted persons in 1992 to one of the key futures research institutes in Europe with about fifty staff members, hundreds of research and developmental projects, and more than a thousand publications. Although acknowledging the variety of futures studies topics and approaches nourished by the researchers, we conclude that facilitating expert-based and stakeholder-based futures studies processes is the key competence of the FFRC. Hybrid methods are continuously developed, meaning combinations of more specific techniques. A proper mix of tools and approaches to gather, analyze, organize, and interpret data is always searched for. At the end of the article, we present four scenarios of the future of the FFRC jointly made by the staff. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The practice of conservation occurs within complex socioecological systems fraught with challenges that require transparent, defensible, and often socially engaged project planning and management. Planning and decision support frameworks are designed to help conservation practitioners increase planning rigor, project accountability, stakeholder participation, transparency in decisions, and learning. We describe and contrast five common frameworks within the context of six fundamental questions (why, who, what, where, when, how) at each of three planning stages of adaptive management (project scoping, operational planning, learning). We demonstrate that decision support frameworks provide varied and extensive tools for conservation planning and management. However, using any framework in isolation risks diminishing potential benefits since no one framework covers the full spectrum of potential conservation planning and decision challenges. We describe two case studies that have effectively deployed tools from across conservation frameworks to improve conservation actions and outcomes. Attention to the critical questions for conservation project planning should allow practitioners to operate within any framework and adapt tools to suit their specific management context. We call on conservation researchers and practitioners to regularly use decision support tools as standard practice for framing both practice and research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many African countries have developed policies to reform their education system in order to widen participation in higher education. To achieve this, open, online and distance education based models have been advocated as the most viable delivery tools in expanding access to higher education. However, the policy analysis of Kenya, Rwanda and Zambia revealed that the integration of open, online and distance education in these countries' education systems is inadequate. The purpose of this study is to analyse policies in order to determine why policy goals are not achieved and how the present reality and the past knowledge impacts on the desired outcome. The future research methods of forecasting is used because it looks at policy interventions with the aim of assisting us to understand probable development in education that may have led to the weak implementation of the policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Objective: One of the tasks of university is the empowerment of students in various areas such as recognizing the future that be affected by the quality of their learning experiences Thus the aim of present study was considering the association between qualities of learning experiences and development of students futures research ability Methods: This was a crosssectional descriptive–analytical study The sample size included 223 student of social welfare and rehabilitation sciences in University of Tehran who were selected by nonprobability quota sampling Research instruments included quality of learning experiences questionnaires (Newman 1999) and ability of future research questionnaire (Parsa et al 2011) Both questionnaires have desirable reliability and validity Results: The results showed that that the qualities of learning experience and the ability of future research of most students is moderate In addition from dimensions of the quality of learning experiences flexibility of learning content and student teacher relationships have the significant positive correlation with the ability of futures research students Conclusion: Based on the results the quality of learning experiences has correlation with students futures research Thus improve the quality of student learning experience and develop capabilities future studies should be considered by the university