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IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic triggered global health crises, affecting population health directly through infections and fatalities, and indirectly by increasing the burden of chronic diseases due to disrupted healthcare access and altered lifestyle behaviors. Amidst these challenges, concerns regarding reproductive health and fertility rates have emerged, necessitating an understanding of their implications for policymaking and healthcare planning. Furthermore, Kazakhstan’s healthcare landscape underwent significant changes with the reintroduction of compulsory social health insurance system in January 2020, coinciding with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and compulsory social health insurance system on fertility rates in Kazakhstan by examining live birth data from 2019 to 2024.MethodsUsing Interrupted Time Series analysis, we evaluated the effect of the COVID-19 lockdown announcement and compulsory social health insurance system implementation on monthly birth rates, adjusted for the number of women of reproductive age from January 2019 to December 2023.ResultsIn the final model, the coefficients were as follows: the effect of the COVID-19 lockdown was estimated at 469 (SE = 2600, p = 0.8576); the centering variable was estimated at 318 (SE = 222, p = 0.1573), suggesting no significant trend in monthly birth rates over time; the insurance effect was estimated at 7,050 (SE = 2,530, p < 0.01); and the effect of the number of women of reproductive age was estimated at -0.204 (SE = 0.0831, p = 0.01).DiscussionThe implementation of the compulsory social health insurance system, rather than the announcement of the COVID-19 lockdown, has had a significant positive impact on live birth rates in Kazakhstan. However, despite governmental efforts, live birth rates are declining, potentially due to unaddressed health needs of fertile women and economic challenges. Urgent policy-level actions are needed to address gaps in healthcare services and promote reproductive health.

Multiple episodes in US history demonstrate that birth rates fall in response to recessions. However, the 2020 COVID-19 recession differed from earlier periods in that employment and access to contraception and abortion fell, as reproductive health centers across the country temporarily closed or reduced their capacity. This paper exploits novel survey and administrative data to examine how reductions in access to reproductive health care during 2020 affected contraceptive efficacy among low-income women. Accounting for 2020's reductions in access to contraception and the economic slowdown, our results predict a modest decline in births of 1.1 percent in 2021 for low-income women. Further accounting for reductions in access to abortion implies that birth rates may even rise for low-income women. These results also suggest that already economically disadvantaged families disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 economy will experience a large increase in unplanned births.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-022-09703-9.

China's growing prominence as a trade superpower has placed competitive pressure on manufacturing industries in Brazil, while simultaneously bolstering demand for its commodities. I investigate the effects of this so-called manufactures-for-commodities boom on Brazilian birth outcomes from 2000 to 2010. Exploiting exogenous variation in patterns of trade growth with China across different regions within Brazil, I find that both import and export growth led to higher birth weights for babies, and lower infant mortality rates. I also find that negative import shocks reduced fertility rates across all age groups for women, suggesting that selectivity in births induced by negative income shocks, combined with concentration of household resources on the children that are born led to better infant health outcomes. Additional evidence is consistent with income effects playing a role in explaining the results, while ruling out better provision of healthcare and changes to household composition as mechanisms. I also explore changes in trade-induced pollution levels and social assistance programs as a potential mechanism. The findings indicate that increased import and export growth can improve infant health, highlighting another potential benefit from trade liberalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among the EU's challenges, demography is probably the least conspicuous. This does not, however, mean that it is unimportant—quite the contrary. While in the past, it was visible only in population statistics, in the 2020s the lack of a labour force has become obvious to anyone with an interest in the European welfare state and the EU's competitiveness. Population ageing, caused by increasing longevity and persistently low birth rates, cannot be addressed by encouraging women to have more children or by bringing in non-EU migrants. These methods are ineffective, and often resented. Instead, the key to improving the state of the EU's demographic and economic prospects lies in increasing labour participation rates. This can be done by pushing up the statutory retirement age and creating the right conditions for older people, women, minority groups and diasporas to enter the world of work. While the latter measures are also not easy to implement, they are still more politically and socially viable than boosting immigration and birth rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on data from the International Social Survey Program (ISSP), this study examines the extent to which cognitive dissonance regarding egalitarian attitudes toward the gender division of labour are associated with fertility rates in sixteen societies, representing Anglo American, Northern European, Western European and East Asian regimes. The findings show that although levels of support for gender equality in the realms of the family and the market are positively associated with fertility rates, an even stronger relationship to fertility emerges when weighing the differences between the levels of support for gender equality in each realm. The findings lend some corroboration to McDonald's hypothesis, which suggests that declining fertility rates are influenced by contradictory expectations between gender equality for women in the home and market.

In a previous study, we showed that various low-molecular-weight compounds in follicular fluid (FF) samples of control fertile females (CFF) have different concentrations compared to those found in FF of infertile females (IF), before and after their categorization into different subgroups, according to their clinical diagnosis of infertility. Using the same FF samples of this previous study, we here analyzed the FF concentrations of free and bound bilirubin and compared the results obtained in CFF, IF and the different subgroups of IF (endometriosis, EM, polycystic ovary syndrome, PCOS, age-related reduced ovarian reserve, AR-ROR, reduced ovarian reserve, ROR, genetic infertility, GI and unexplained infertility, UI). The results clearly indicated that CFF had lower values of free, bound and total bilirubin compared to the respective values measured in pooled IF. These differences were observed even when IF were categorized into EM, PCOS, AR-ROR, ROR, GI and UI, with EM and PCOS showing the highest values of free, bound and total bilirubin among the six subgroups. Using previous results of ascorbic acid, GSH and nitrite + nitrate measured in the same FF samples of the same FF donors, we found that total bilirubin in FF increased as a function of decreased values of ascorbic acid and GSH, and increased concentrations of nitrite + nitrate. The values of total bilirubin negatively correlated with the clinical parameters of fertilization procedures (number of retrieved oocytes, mature oocytes, fertilized oocytes, blastocysts, high-quality blastocysts) and with clinical pregnancies and birth rates. Bilirubin concentrations in FF were not linked to those found in serum samples of FF donors, thereby strongly suggesting that its over production was due to higher activity of heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1), the key enzyme responsible for bilirubin formation, in granulosa cells, or cumulus cells or oocytes of IF and ultimately leading to bilirubin accumulation in FF. Since increased activity of HO-1 is one of the main enzymatic intracellular mechanisms of defense towards external insults (oxidative/nitrosative stress, inflammation), and since we found correlations among bilirubin and oxidative/nitrosative stress in these FF samples, it may reasonably be supposed that bilirubin increase in FF of IF is the result of protracted exposures to the aforementioned insults evidently playing relevant roles in female infertility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The population density in Indonesia which is increasing every year without being followed by an increase in better human resources (Human Resources) will affect economic growth and the welfare of the Indonesian population itself. To reduce the rate of population growth and increase fertility rates, the government can make budget expenditures in the health sector and establish policies, namely the use of KB (Family Planning), as well as increasing women's education so that many women prefer to work and can reduce the number of existing fertility. This study aims to determine the effect of government spending on the health sector, use of family planning (KB), women's education, and women's labor force participation rate (TPAK) on fertility in Indonesia in 1980-2020. The type of this research is quantitative research with analytical techniques using multiple linear regression analysis with software eviews. The results of this study indicate that government budget expenditures for the health sector, use of family planning, women's education and women's TPAK (Labor Force Participation Rate) partially negative affect the decline in fertility in Indonesia in 1980-2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Notwithstanding the great improvement of ART, the overall rate of successful pregnancies from implanted human embryos is definitely low. The current routine embryo quality assessment is performed only through morphological criteria, which has poor predictive capacity since only a minor percentage of those in the highest class give rise to successful pregnancy. Previous studies highlighted the potentiality of the analysis of metabolites in human embryo culture media, useful for the selection of embryos for implantation. In the present study, we analyzed in blind 66 human embryo culture media at 5 days after in vitro fertilization with the aim of quantifying compounds released by cell metabolism that were not present as normal constituents of the human embryo growth media, including purines, pyrimidines, nitrite, and nitrate. Only some purines were detectable (hypoxanthine and uric acid) in the majority of samples, while nitrite and nitrate were always detectable. When matching biochemical results with morphological evaluation, it was found that low grade embryos (n = 12) had significantly higher levels of all the compounds of interest. Moreover, when matching biochemical results according to successful (n = 17) or unsuccessful (n = 25) pregnancy, it was found that human embryos from the latter group released higher concentrations of hypoxanthine, uric acid, nitrite, and nitrate in the culture media. Additionally, those embryos that developed into successful pregnancies were all associated with the birth of healthy newborns. These results, although carried out on a relatively low number of samples, indicate that the analysis of the aforementioned compounds in the culture media of human embryos is a potentially useful tool for the selection of embryos for implantation, possibly leading to an increase in the overall rate of ART. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a previous study, we showed that various low-molecular-weight compounds in follicular fluid (FF) samples of control fertile females (CFF) have different concentrations compared to those found in FF of infertile females (IF), before and after their categorization into different subgroups, according to their clinical diagnosis of infertility. Using the same FF samples of this previous study, we here analyzed the FF concentrations of free and bound bilirubin and compared the results obtained in CFF, IF and the different subgroups of IF (endometriosis, EM, polycystic ovary syndrome, PCOS, age-related reduced ovarian reserve, AR-ROR, reduced ovarian reserve, ROR, genetic infertility, GI and unexplained infertility, UI). The results clearly indicated that CFF had lower values of free, bound and total bilirubin compared to the respective values measured in pooled IF. These differences were observed even when IF were categorized into EM, PCOS, AR-ROR, ROR, GI and UI, with EM and PCOS showing the highest values of free, bound and total bilirubin among the six subgroups. Using previous results of ascorbic acid, GSH and nitrite + nitrate measured in the same FF samples of the same FF donors, we found that total bilirubin in FF increased as a function of decreased values of ascorbic acid and GSH, and increased concentrations of nitrite + nitrate. The values of total bilirubin negatively correlated with the clinical parameters of fertilization procedures (number of retrieved oocytes, mature oocytes, fertilized oocytes, blastocysts, high-quality blastocysts) and with clinical pregnancies and birth rates. Bilirubin concentrations in FF were not linked to those found in serum samples of FF donors, thereby strongly suggesting that its over production was due to higher activity of heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1), the key enzyme responsible for bilirubin formation, in granulosa cells, or cumulus cells or oocytes of IF and ultimately leading to bilirubin accumulation in FF. Since increased activity of HO-1 is one of the main enzymatic intracellular mechanisms of defense towards external insults (oxidative/nitrosative stress, inflammation), and since we found correlations among bilirubin and oxidative/nitrosative stress in these FF samples, it may reasonably be supposed that bilirubin increase in FF of IF is the result of protracted exposures to the aforementioned insults evidently playing relevant roles in female infertility.

During the last few decades, the shape of Europe's population pyramid has transformed substantially, due to a considerably older population structure, with fewer working-age people and more pensioners. This paper examines the EU's demographic problem which involves an increasing ageing population as a result of low birth rates and longer life expectancies, leading to the so called "greying of Europe". Therefore, certain recommendations are suggested in order to mitigate the negative economic, social and geopolitical effects of this demographic phenomenon. It is concluded that the EU's ageing population should not be regarded solely as a threat, as it has also the potential to provide opportunities for societies through intergenerational solidarity and the rapidly emerging silver economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work is intended as an attempt to illustrate and compare the pattern of fertility in European countries: Belarus, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland. It deals with the analysis of fertility trends, with an emphasis on birth by parity. Using data from the Human Fertility Database (HFD) from the year 2016, it has considered the parameters of parity progression ratios (PPR), projected parity progression ratios (PPPR), age‑specific fertility rates (ASFR), age‑order specific fertility rates (AOSFR), and cumulated order‑specific fertility rates accordingly analysed. We have applied indicators known as the projected parity progression ratios to estimate trends of fertility. These offer a more detailed view of the family formation process than the traditional total fertility rate (TFR).

In this paper, polynomial models have been formulated to describe the distribution pattern of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and forward-cumulative ASFRs of Nepali mothers. The former follows the bi-quadratic polynomial and the latter follows the quadratic one. Velocity and elasticity equations of the fitted models have been formulated. The areas covered by the curves of the fitted models have been evaluated, and the area covered by the curve of ASFRs is equivalent to the total fertility rate (TFR). The elasticity curve of ASFRs helps to measure the sensitivity of ASFRs to the age of women at the birth of a child. Furthermore, the mode of the fitted ASFRs has been estimated. To test the stability and validity of fitted models, cross-validation prediction power, shrinkage of the model, F-test statistics, and the coefficient of determination have been applied. All the test statistics suggest that the proposed models are significantly fit the ASFRs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Over the past half-century, the world has witnessed a steep decline in fertility rates in virtually every country on Earth. This universal decline in fertility is being driven by increasing prosperity largely through the mediation of social factors, the most powerful of which are the education of women and an accompanying shift in life's purpose away from procreation. In addition, it is clear that environmental and lifestyle factors are also having a profound impact on our reproductive competence particularly in the male where increasing prosperity is associated with a significant rise in the incidence of testicular cancer and a secular decline in semen quality and testosterone levels. On a different timescale, we should also recognize that the increased prosperity associated with the demographic transition greatly reduces the selection pressure on high fertility genes by lowering the rates of infant and childhood mortality. The retention of poor fertility genes within the human population is also being exacerbated by the increased uptake of ART. It is arguable that all of these elements are colluding to drive our species into an infertility trap. If we are to avoid the latter, it will be important to recognize the factors contributing to this phenomenon and adopt the social, political, environmental and lifestyle changes needed to bring this situation under control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Folia Pomeranae Universitatis Technologiae Stetinensis Agricultura Alimentaria Piscaria et Zootechnica is the property of West Pomeranian University of Technology in Szczecin and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Espacio, Tiempo y Forma: Serie VI, Geografía is the property of Editorial UNED and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

By exploring the professional trajectory of sociologist Gheorghe (George) Retegan (1916–1998), this article addresses the epistemological and personal reconfigurations of the field of social sciences in post-war Romania, highlighting the complex relations and professional rivalries in the field after the Second World War, and their consequences for social knowledge. My study explores Retegan’s published and unpublished works, archival documents, and an interview that Z. Rostás conducted with Retegan in the 1990s. I analyse three research ventures relevant for understanding Retegan’s professional trajectory and methodological choices: the 1948–1950 family budget research that Retegan coordinated at the Central Institute for Statistics; the 1957–1959 monographic research he coordinated at the Institute for Economic Research; and his “farewell” to sociology and specialization in demography beginning in the 1960s. My article documents Retegan’s remarkable capacity to develop research by way of formulating new questions, methodologies, and techniques, on the basis of the main elements of empirical research he learned during his training in sociology under the supervision of Anton Golopenția. Retegan’s contributions to the field of empirical social research suggest how a context that was generally unfavourable for the development of social sciences (1948–1965) could be used in a creative way for the study of the social world. Epistemologically, the survival and even innovation of empirical research under unfavourable ideological and political conditions made possible the rehabilitation of sociology as a discipline in the much more favourable context of the second half of the 1960s.

Notwithstanding the great improvement of ART, the overall rate of successful pregnancies from implanted human embryos is definitely low. The current routine embryo quality assessment is performed only through morphological criteria, which has poor predictive capacity since only a minor percentage of those in the highest class give rise to successful pregnancy. Previous studies highlighted the potentiality of the analysis of metabolites in human embryo culture media, useful for the selection of embryos for implantation. In the present study, we analyzed in blind 66 human embryo culture media at 5 days after in vitro fertilization with the aim of quantifying compounds released by cell metabolism that were not present as normal constituents of the human embryo growth media, including purines, pyrimidines, nitrite, and nitrate. Only some purines were detectable (hypoxanthine and uric acid) in the majority of samples, while nitrite and nitrate were always detectable. When matching biochemical results with morphological evaluation, it was found that low grade embryos (n = 12) had significantly higher levels of all the compounds of interest. Moreover, when matching biochemical results according to successful (n = 17) or unsuccessful (n = 25) pregnancy, it was found that human embryos from the latter group released higher concentrations of hypoxanthine, uric acid, nitrite, and nitrate in the culture media. Additionally, those embryos that developed into successful pregnancies were all associated with the birth of healthy newborns. These results, although carried out on a relatively low number of samples, indicate that the analysis of the aforementioned compounds in the culture media of human embryos is a potentially useful tool for the selection of embryos for implantation, possibly leading to an increase in the overall rate of ART.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic triggered global health crises, affecting population health directly through infections and fatalities, and indirectly by increasing the burden of chronic diseases due to disrupted healthcare access and altered lifestyle behaviors. Amidst these challenges, concerns regarding reproductive health and fertility rates have emerged, necessitating an understanding of their implications for policymaking and healthcare planning. Furthermore, Kazakhstan's healthcare landscape underwent significant changes with the reintroduction of compulsory social health insurance system in January 2020, coinciding with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and compulsory social health insurance system on fertility rates in Kazakhstan by examining live birth data from 2019 to 2024., Methods: Using Interrupted Time Series analysis, we evaluated the effect of the COVID-19 lockdown announcement and compulsory social health insurance system implementation on monthly birth rates, adjusted for the number of women of reproductive age from January 2019 to December 2023., Results: In the final model, the coefficients were as follows: the effect of the COVID-19 lockdown was estimated at 469 (SE = 2600, p = 0.8576); the centering variable was estimated at 318 (SE = 222, p = 0.1573), suggesting no significant trend in monthly birth rates over time; the insurance effect was estimated at 7,050 (SE = 2,530, p < 0.01); and the effect of the number of women of reproductive age was estimated at -0.204 (SE = 0.0831, p = 0.01)., Discussion: The implementation of the compulsory social health insurance system, rather than the announcement of the COVID-19 lockdown, has had a significant positive impact on live birth rates in Kazakhstan. However, despite governmental efforts, live birth rates are declining, potentially due to unaddressed health needs of fertile women and economic challenges. Urgent policy-level actions are needed to address gaps in healthcare services and promote reproductive health., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Karibayeva, Moiynbayeva, Akhmetov, Yerkenova, Shaikova, Moshkalova, Mussayeva and Tarakova.)

In recent years, Japan has faced a significant demographic crisis, which was further exacerbated by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. By 2022, the country experienced a 1.5% decrease in population, which is in contrast to other G7 nations, and had the highest rate of excess mortality among Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. This crisis is mainly attributed to aging population, with Japan's aging rate reaching 29.9%, the highest among its peer countries. The Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, has proposed policies aimed at addressing these challenges, focusing on increasing fertility rates. Despite these efforts, an evidence-based policymaking (EBPM) analysis reveals that the anticipated impact on fertility rates is marginal, with financial interventions estimated to yield only a slight population increase by 2060. Furthermore, the analysis highlighted the need for a more comprehensive approach, indicating that addressing societal issues such as gender norms and workplace culture might be crucial for a sustainable solution to Japan's demographic challenges. This emphasizes the need for Japan to consider broader societal changes alongside fiscal policies to effectively combat its demographic decline., Competing Interests: Dr Ozaki reported personal fees from Medical Network Systems Inc. and Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd., outside the submitted work. Dr Tanimoto reported personal fees from Medical Network Systems Inc., and Bionics Co., Ltd., outside the submitted work. No other disclosures were reported., (Copyright © Japan Medical Association.)

This paper examines the family policy reforms of 2007 in Russia that were aimed explicitly at encouraging second and higher-order births, and analyses their impact on fertility. The existing empirical findings about population policy interventions in transition economies are inconclusive, while the most common argument states that policies based on material incentives are insufficient to significantly raise the real fertility in a population. The study aims to offer a better insight to the following research question: was Russian demographic policy effective in terms of raising the fertility level in the country or did it merely change the timing of births? The objective of the paper is to measure two effects of the pronatalist policy in Russia: tempo effect and quantum effect. Using data from the Human Fertility Database, I employ the decomposition method to separate tempo and quantum effects in the observed total fertility rate, and I estimate their relative weight in observed fertility changes. The analysis of period fertility indicators confirmed the prevalence of a tempo effect in observed total fertility rate change, but also revealed a quantum effect of the policy measures, although this was much smaller. Policy impact varied by birth order. For second parity, the tempo effect played a more critical role, while for third parity the quantum effect was more important. Another decomposition approach employed to measure the contributions of various factors in the increase of the number of births during the post-reform period showed the quantum effect which was driven by second and third order births. The study provides empirical evidence of the impact of policies on fertility behaviour, expands the existing analysis of pronatalist measures taken in Russia, and contributes to our understanding of the role of tempo and quantum effects in the recent fertility change in Russia.

Many studies have been conducted on the relationship between education as an indicator of human capital and economic growth in our country. However, there have been a few studies regarding the simultaneous impact of health capital and education indicators on the economic growth of the provinces up to now. In this regard, the present study examined the impact of human health indicators and educational expenditures on the economic growth of the provinces of Iran. In this study, the dynamic effect of health capital indicators and educational expenditure along with the performance of the capital assets ownership on the growth of the economies was examined using the panel data obtained from the provinces during the years 2005-2015 by employing the generalized method of moments. The study results indicate that the fertility rate with a coefficient of 0.39, life expectancy with a coefficient of 0.202, and growth of household health expenditures with a coefficient of 0.045 had a positive effect on the economic growth of the provinces. However, the mortality rate with a coefficient of 0.203 had a significant negative effect on the provinces economic growth during the years under study. It was also found that educational expenditures growth and performance of capital assets ownership had a significant positive effect on the economic growth of the provinces. The health capital and its indicators are a long-term investment that should be considered as an important priority by the policymakers of the country and provinces.

This introduction to fictional "fertility dystopias" presents literary examples of the rapid expansion or collapse of populations through the manipulation of fertility or the fraught inability or decision not to. Additionally, these fictions are periodized with their extraliterary social contexts, revealing roughly three intervals: pronatalism dominant before the 1950s, antinatalism ascendant from the 1950s to the early 1970s, and, beginning in the middle 1970s to the present, contestation between pronatalism and antinatalism. Despite the ascendance of antinatalism, fertility dystopias in the middle interval reveal antinatalist assumptions but with accompanying anxiety rather than complete endorsement. Today, tracking with global variations in local fertility rates and development levels, both antinatalist and pronatalist messages are expressed with equal vigor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three broad categories of transformative changes have been recommended in The Economics of Biodiversity: The Dasgupta Review (henceforth Review): (i) The need to address the imbalance between our demands on Nature and its supply. (ii) The need to change our measures of economic success. (iii) The need for institutional change. However, what the private citizen would like to find in the Review differs from what someone in a government department or an international agency or a private company seeks. These notes have been prompted by the many virtual meetings I have had since the Review 's launch and they further explore aspects of the Review 's recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica is the property of Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Lodzkiego and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The development of semen cryopreservation strategies is necessary to improve the semen storage technologies of species of great commercial interest for aquaculture. Recent studies demonstrate that lipids play an important role in the fertility and cryotolerance of fish gametes. This study investigated the effect of exogenous lipids in the freezing medium on the post-thaw functional parameters of Salmo salar spermatozoa. Semen samples (n = 12) were incubated in standard extender supplemented with different concentrations of oleic acid (OA, C18:1n9), linoleic acid (LA, C18:2n6), arachidonic acid (ARA, C20:4n6) and cholesterol-loaded cyclodextrin (CLC). Post-thaw motility, membrane integrity, mitochondrial membrane potential (ΔΨm), superoxide anion (O 2 •-) and fertility rates were analyzed. The results revealed that the semen incubated with 0.003 mmol/L OA increased the motility (~7%) and ΔΨm (~2%) (P < 0.05), but membrane integrity and fertility were not increased. The addition of 0.003 mmol/L LA increased the motility (~4%) and all LA extenders increased the ΔΨm (P < 0.05); however, LA increased the O 2 •- levels and decreased the membrane integrity and fertility (P < 0.05). Semen incubated with ARA improved sperm motility (~5%), membrane integrity (~10.5%) and fertility rates (~11%) (P < 0.05). The maximum improvement in post-thaw sperm functionality was observed by adding 0.003 mmol/L ARA. In contrast, sperm quality parameters and fertility were decreased by the CLC addition (P < 0.05). This study showed that ARA could be considered as an additive for semen cryopreservation and could be relevant in the reproductive process and reproductive management of Salmo salar. • Fatty acids modulate the functionality and cryoresistance of S. salar spermatozoa. • Oleic acid and linoleic acid increase the mitochondrial membrane potential and motility of S. salar spermatozoa. • Linoleic acid induces an increase of O 2.•- production in S. salar spermatozoa • Arachidonic acid enhancement post-thaw motility, membrane integrity and fertility of S. salar spermatozoa. • Cholesterol addition has a negative impact on S. salar sperm cryopreservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the family policy reforms of 2007 in Russia that were aimed explicitly at encouraging second and higher-order births, and analyses their impact on fertility. The existing empirical findings about population policy interventions in transition economies are inconclusive, while the most common argument states that policies based on material incentives are insufficient to significantly raise the real fertility in a population. The study aims to offer a better insight to the following research question: was Russian demographic policy effective in terms of raising the fertility level in the country or did it merely change the timing of births? The objective of the paper is to measure two effects of the pronatalist policy in Russia: tempo effect and quantum effect. Using data from the Human Fertility Database, I employ the decomposition method to separate tempo and quantum effects in the observed total fertility rate, and I estimate their relative weight in observed fertility changes. The analysis of period fertility indicators confirmed the prevalence of a tempo effect in observed total fertility rate change, but also revealed a quantum effect of the policy measures, although this was much smaller. Policy impact varied by birth order. For second parity, the tempo effect played a more critical role, while for third parity the quantum effect was more important. Another decomposition approach employed to measure the contributions of various factors in the increase of the number of births during the post-reform period showed the quantum effect which was driven by second and third order births. The study provides empirical evidence of the impact of policies on fertility behaviour, expands the existing analysis of pronatalist measures taken in Russia, and contributes to our understanding of the role of tempo and quantum effects in the recent fertility change in Russia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aim: In the past studies, few researchers have addressed the simultaneous effects of human capital in health and education indicators on the economic growth of the country, and especially, provinces of the country. Therefore, the current study examined the simultaneous effects of human capital in health and education indicators on the economic growth in Iran s’ Provinces Materials and Methods: This was an applied, analytical, descriptive study, and the research community consisted of the countrychr('39')s provinces. The data were collected through documentary-library research and from the databases of Iran Office for National Statistics, and Central Bank; afterwards, they were analyzed via unit-root and chow tests, using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and Eviews 9. Results: The results showed that each percent of rise in family health expenditure, fertility rate, and life expectancy increased the provincial economic growth by 0.033%, 0.71%, and 1.83% respectively. In addition, 1% rise in mortality rate decreased the provincial economic growth by 0.43%. Educational expenditure influenced the provincial economic growth by a coefficient of 0.08, and credit capital asset acquisition, by a coefficient of 0.048. Conclusion: Human capital is considered a long-term investment in health and education sectors which should be an important priority on the agenda of provincial policymakers.

Objective: This study aims to explore how equitable paternity leave policy may combine with other family policy to impact fertility levels. Background: The decision to start a family is personal but takes place in the context of policies that vary in level of support. Although policies offering fathers paid leave from work are expected to promote gender equity and make family formation easier, these policies have been implemented with little evidence of effectiveness. Method: This study uses fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis to study data from the International Labour Organization, the World Bank, and the International Leave Network to compare policies systematically across 43 countries. Results: Employing the paternity leave equity typology, evidence suggests that high increases in fertility are found in countries where paternity leave policies promote equity in combination with other factors, or in less affluent countries where women tend to start families later and experience less paid labor market participation. Conclusion: This research suggests that a one‐size‐fits‐all approach may not promote fertility. Implications: In addition to equity in parental leave, policymakers should consider a range of factors that affect parents, especially women's participation in the workforce and age at first birth. Further research is needed to identify conditions in which equitable paternity leaves are most effective so policymakers can develop evidence‐based policies best suited to meeting their goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The University of Houston Institute for Research on Women, Gender & Sexuality (UH IRWGS) documents and analyzes gender and sexuality dynamics in Harris County, as they intersect with race, ethnicity, class, age, and other identify factors, exploring their effects on individual lives and the wider economy and society. This report provides initial data to spur dialogue, especially with regard to issues of current and future workforce, health, civic participation, and in/equity. Findings documented here include new analyses of select local gender and sexuality data, derived from the annual US Census and other sources, as well as some national and other comparison data, and some relevant preexistent analyses by others. These baseline data and data on other relevant topics not covered here will be expanded upon in IRWGS research and reports going forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is the first econometric study of the impact of housing property rights on family fertility in China. It is important policy-wise because China's government wants to raise China's birth rate. This analysis is based on relevant samples drawn from the 2016 China Family Survey and utilizes linear probability, Probit and two-stage least square models. Having housing property rights is found to have a statistically significant positive influence on fertility in China. This result is consistent with most research results for other countries. Other significant influences on fertility include income levels, the sex of respondents, age, whether they are employed, their health and level of education. Furthermore, it is found (in China) that if the first-born child is a boy, parents are less likely to have a second child; and that rural families have substantially more children than urban ones. These features (as observed in the literature) are common in patriarchal societies and in developing ones. It is argued that China's economic reforms and structural economic change (especially rapid urbanization) have led to a substantial reduction in its birth rate. Given our research results, it is unlikely that the cessation of China's 'One Child' policy will in itself result in a sizeable rise in its fertility rate. Nevertheless, given our findings, public policies facilitating the purchase of housing by first-home buyers should contribute positively to China's fertility rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nigeria has a plural legal system in which various sources of law govern simultaneously. Inconsistent and conflicting legal frameworks can reinforce pre–existing health disparities in sexual and reproductive health (SRH). While previous studies indicate poor SRH outcomes for Nigerian women and girls, particularly in Northern states, the relationship between customary and religious law (CRL) and SRH has not been explored. We conducted a state-level ecological study to examine the relationship between CRL and SRH outcomes among women in 36 Nigerian states and the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja (n = 37), using publicly available Demographic and Health Survey data from 2013. Indicators were guided by published research and included contraception use among married women, total fertility rate, median age at first birth, receipt of antenatal care, delivery location, and comprehensive knowledge of HIV. To account for economic differences between states, crude linear regression models were compared to a multivariable model, adjusting for per capita GDP. All SRH outcomes, except comprehensive knowledge of HIV, were statistically significantly more negative in CRL states compared to non–CRL states, even after accounting for state–level GDP. In CRL states in 2013, compared to non–CRL states, the proportion of married women who used any method of contraception was 22.7 percentage points lower ([95% CI: −15.78 –−29.64], p<0.001), a difference that persisted in a model adjusting for per capita GDP (b[adj] = −16.15, 95% CI: [−8.64 –−23.66], p<0.001.). While this analysis of retrospective state-level data found robust associations between CRL and poor SRH outcomes, future research should incorporate prospective individual-level data to further elucidate these findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The modelling of HIV trends in Tanzania uses surveillance data from antenatal clinics after adjusting for the reduction in fertility of women living with HIV (WLWH). The rollout of HIV care and treatment services has enabled many WLWH to start on antiretroviral treatment (ART) earlier and are counselled on the options to prevent HIV transmission to their children. The assumption that being HIV positive leads to lower fertility needs to be revisited. This study aims to quantify the effect of ART program expansion on the fertility rate of WLWH in Tanzania. We used Cox regression model to estimate fertility rate and associated factors among WLWH of reproductive age (15–49 years) who enrolled in HIV care and treatment at 57 centers in Tabora from 2008 to 2014. A decomposition of Poisson regression was used to explore the reasons for fertility rate differences observed among WLWH. A total of 6,397 WLWH aged 15–49 years were followed for a median time of 2.0 years. The total fertility rate of 48.8/1,000 person years (95%CI: 44.6 to 52.9/1,000) was inversely proportional to age and WHO clinical staging. WLWH on ART had higher fertility compared to those not started on ART (aHR = 1.5, 95%CI: 1.2–1.9). Being married or cohabiting, having higher CD4 cell count and not using contraceptives were associated with higher fertility rate. The fertility rate after post-ART initiation was 54.95/1,000 and among pre-ART users was 40.52/1,000, a difference of 14.43/1,000 in fertility rate between the groups. In the decomposition analysis, proximate determinants of fertility rate among WLWH on ART accounted for a 93.8% smaller increase than expected. In an era of ART expansion in Tabora region, fertility rates of WLWH increased. Higher fertility rates in women on ART may alter the estimation of HIV prevalence and incidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China relaxed its family planning policy and adopted a universal two-child policy on January 1, 2016 to actively address the country’s aging trend. However, the policy has failed to have any significant effect on the fertility rate of many provinces. In light of the country having the highest sex ratio at birth in the world and the huge burden of the aging population, improving the fertility rate is an urgent priority in China. This facility-based cross-sectional survey aimed to study determinants of fertility decision-making among couples based on the Theory of Planned Behavior. The study was conducted in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China. A structured self-administered questionnaire was completed by 1,399 couples, consisting of wives aged 20–49 years and their husbands. Based on the structural equation modeling method of analysis, determinants of fertility decision-making were perceived behavior control (perceived importance of having a stable income and cost of raising a child), subjective norms (perceived social pressure about “sex preference of the newborn by themselves and their partner”) and attitudes (only healthy parents can have a child). Other significant factors influencing fertility decision were ethnicity and education level, with ethnic minority couples having less perception of social norm towards fertility and those with higher education having higher perceived control toward having a (further) child. The study reveals the importance of the China’s infrastructure and public facilities to support child-rearing to increase the fertility rate among couples of child-bearing age, which in turn will reduce the burden associated with an aging society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Demographic and Health Surveys, widely used for estimation of fertility and reproductive health indicators in developing countries, remain underutilized for the study of pregnancy termination. This is partly due to most surveys not reporting the type of pregnancy termination, whether spontaneous or induced. Reproductive calendar data makes it possible to examine termination patterns according to contraceptive use at the time of pregnancy. Contraceptive failure is expected to increase the likelihood of induced abortion helping in the interpretation of reported termination patterns. Materials and methods: We use individual-level calendar data regarding 623,966 pregnancies to analyze levels and differentials in reported patterns of pregnancy termination by age, union status, and contraceptive use in 107 DHS surveys from 50 countries. From the estimates of the probability of pregnancy termination, we compute derived reproductive health indicators providing an assessment of what is driving the differences by comparison to the few surveys reporting the type of pregnancy termination. Results: From our estimates, 10.9% of pregnancies do not end in live-birth and 63.7% of them are spontaneous terminations. Reported pregnancy termination is higher among women using contraceptives, consistent with expectations. Very low levels of reported PT in some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, suggests possible underreporting. Differential patterns emerging from cluster analysis and regional rates indicate high rates of pregnancy termination driven by induced abortion in countries from the Former Soviet Union and Asian countries with liberal laws. Most countries with restrictive abortion laws have low levels of reported termination. While the probabilities of pregnancy termination are higher at older ages, termination rates generally peak at younger ages due to higher conception rates. Discussion: This is the first large comparative study of the patterns of reported pregnancy termination in DHS surveys. While we have explored the extent to which differences arise from spontaneous terminations or induced abortion, more research is needed regarding the determinants of reported pregnancy termination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Unmet need for contraception is defined as the proportion of fertile individuals who do not use contraceptives despite wanting to space or limit their childbearing. Studies show that immigrant women in Europe, have higher rates of unintended pregnancies and abortion than native born women. Somali women, have the highest fertility rate in Norway which is much higher than the total fertility rate in Norway (4.0 vs. 1.7). This study investigates the unmet need for contraception among Somali immigrant women in Oslo, Norway, compared to their original population in Mogadishu, Somalia. Methods: A community based, cross sectional study was carried out among Somali women in Oslo (N = 228) and Mogadishu (N = 229) from May to December 2018. Pre-structured questionnaires were given to women who were recruited through snow-ball sampling. Data was analyzed using SPSS version 25. We performed a chi-square test for the analyses of categorical variables, a t-test for continuous variables and multivariate logistic analysis to determine the association between exposure and outcome variable. Results: The unmet needs for contraception among Somali women in Oslo was 20.2%, which is similar to unmet needs for contraception of women in many sub-Saharan African countries. The unmet needs for Somali immigrant women in Oslo (20.2) is two times lower than that of their original population in Somalia (48.5). The odds of having unmet needs for contraception was nearly, three times higher among Somali women in Mogadishu compared to those in Oslo (OR: 2.6, CI: 2.56–7.68). The mean intended fertility was 4 among the women in Oslo and 10.8 in Mogadishu. About 13.4% of study participants in Oslo and 86.6% of those in Mogadishu consider modern contraception irrelevant for women’s health. Nearly 50% of women in both places had unintended childbirth on one or more occasion. Conclusion: The study results show the prevalence of unmet needs for contraception among Somali immigrant women Oslo, is 4 fold higher than that of Norway (20.2 vs 5.5). Information Education Communication to both men and women, may reduce the high unmet need for contraception and also improve partner communication on family planning among Somali immigrants in Oslo. Training primary health providers for provision of tailored information about the modern contraception to immigrant women, which includes an individualized counselling may improve partners’ knowledge, demand and uptake of modern contraception. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The causes of disappearance of the Neanderthals, the only human population living in Europe before the arrival of Homo sapiens, have been debated for decades by the scientific community. Different hypotheses have been advanced to explain this demise, such as cognitive, adaptive and cultural inferiority of Neanderthals. Here, we investigate the disappearance of Neanderthals by examining the extent of demographic changes needed over a period of 10,000 years (yrs) to lead to their extinction. In regard to such fossil populations, we inferred demographic parameters from present day and past hunter-gatherer populations, and from bio-anthropological rules. We used demographic modeling and simulations to identify the set of plausible demographic parameters of the Neanderthal population compatible with the observed dynamics, and to explore the circumstances under which they might have led to the disappearance of Neanderthals. A slight (<4%) but continuous decrease in the fertility rate of younger Neanderthal women could have had a significant impact on these dynamics, and could have precipitated their demise. Our results open the way to non-catastrophic events as plausible explanations for Neanderthal extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) are a major source for many demographic and health indicators in developing countries. Although these indicators are well defined in the literature, using survey data to calculate some of these indicators has never been an easy task for data users. This paper presents the software, a user-friendly R package developed to calculate fertility indicators, such as the total fertility rate, general fertility rate, and age-specific fertility rates, and childhood mortality indicators, such as the neonatal mortality rate, post-neonatal mortality rate, infant mortality rate, child mortality rate, and under-5 mortality rate, from the DHS data. The package allows for national and subnational indicators. In addition, the package calculates sampling error indicators such as standard error, design effect, relative standard error, and confidence interval for each demographic indicator. The package can also be used to calculate the same indicators from other population surveys such as the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior research has examined the quinceañera's role in Hispanic female adolescents' identity development processes, but few have examined the quinceañera as a site of group-level continuity and change whose relevance persists in a post–Great Recession economy. This gap in the family science literature reflects a larger epistemic shortcoming stemming from the field's use of White mainstream family processes as the reference from which to operationalize normative family values, attitudes, and behaviors. Using historical and demographic data in tandem with contemporary literature on the consumptive behaviors of Hispanic families, we conceptualize the quinceañera as a consistently symbolic, yet flexibly enacted ritual performed by diverse U.S. Hispanic families as they co-construct family identity against the backdrop of changing immigration patterns, fertility rates, and financial practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The changing population age structure has a significant influence on the economy, society, and numerous other aspects of a country. This paper has innovatively applied the method of compositional data forecasting for the prediction of population age changes of the young (aged 0–14), the middle-aged (aged 15–64), and the elderly (aged older than 65) in China, India, and Vietnam by 2030 based on data from 1960 to 2016. To select the best-suited forecasting model, an array of data transformation approaches and forecasting models have been extensively employed, and a large number of comparisons have been made between the aforementioned methods. The best-suited model for each country is identified considering the root mean squared error and mean absolute percent error values from the compositional data. As noted in this study, first and foremost, it is predicted that by the year 2030, China will witness the disappearance of population dividend and get mired in an aging problem far more severe than that of India or Vietnam. Second, Vietnam’s trend of change in population age structure resembles that of China, but the country will sustain its good health as a whole. Finally, the working population of India demonstrates a strong rising trend, indicating that the age structure of the Indian population still remains relatively “young”. Meanwhile, the continuous rise in the proportion of elderly population and the gradual leveling off growth of the young population have nevertheless become serious problems in the world. The present paper attempts to offer crucial insights into the Asian population size, labor market and urbanization, and, moreover, provides suggestions for a sustainable global demographic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The invasive dermestid khapra beetle, Trogoderma granarium, is an important pest of stored products that is subject to strict phytosanitary measures. In this study, we conducted a demographic analysis of this species at 30, 35 and 40°C, combining deterministic and stochastic approaches. The net reproductive rate, the intrinsic rate of increase, the finite rate of increase and the doubling time did not differ significantly between 30 and 35°C, while at 40°C we detected negative values of the intrinsic rate of increase and the doubling time. The Briere model fit the data well with respect to the intrinsic rate of increase. Females of roughly 63, 42 and 21 days old reached their maximum reproductive potential at 30, 35 and 40°C, respectively. The stochastic models of this study allowed for checking model fit and the characterization of the most suitable distribution for each component of the process. We expect these results to have bearing on the management of T. granarium since they could be combined with models related to international trade and climatic change, alerting specialists towards early detection strategies against this species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The strategy of the “Belt and Road” initiative aims not only to promote the cooperation and the development of economic trade, but also to boost the integration and development in multiple fields—especially in the field of health. This paper explores the health levels of member-states in the Belt and Road initiative from the perspective of regional differences and spatial patterns. Data from the 68 member-states in the Belt and Road initiative were selected from the statistical data on disease and socioeconomics in all countries from the 2015 publication by the World Bank and the World Health Organization. Health indicators that can reflect health levels of member states were selected. Moran’s I and Getis-Ord Gi* were used to analyze the spatial clustering and hot/cold spots of the health status. After that a novel spatial statistical method “geographical detector” was used to analysis the spatial stratified heterogeneity of the selected health indicators. The result showed that the health level of the member states fluctuated around the world average and varied greatly within the member states. The health status of the member states showed spatial clustering, and the q-statistics of the geographical detector confirmed that the health status demonstrated statistically significant spatial heterogeneity for different continent the member states reside. In general, member states in Europe and Oceania demonstrated higher health status, while those in South Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa and part of Middle East have lower health status. In particular, special attention should be paid to control communicable diseases in African member states. Different regions and member states face different kinds of health threats in various degrees. Member states should strengthen health cooperation between themselves and work closely with other countries to make the “belt and road” a healthy road. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Fertility desires of female and male partners in current relationships are often correlated. We examined the influence of HIV seropositive status of female and male partners on short-term fertility desires in Rakai, Uganda, a setting with high fertility and HIV infection rates. Methods: Participants were couples (15–49 years old) enrolled in the Rakai Community Cohort Study, from 2011 to 2013 (n = 2,291). Cohen’s kappa coefficient was used to measure the correlation of female and male partners’ short-term fertility desires (measured as ‘wanting a child in the next 12 months’), in both total sample and stratified serostatus groups. HIV serostatus and additional characteristics of female and male partners were included in Poisson regression models to estimate the rate ratios (RR) for each partner’s short-term fertility desires. Individual and partner characteristics included HIV status, partner HIV status, age in years, partner age in years, educational attainment, number of living children, community of residence, and socioeconomic status (SES). Results: Short-term fertility desires among female and male partners were moderately associated (Kappa = 0.37, p-value<0.001). The association was weakest among female sero-positive and male sero-negative couples (Kappa = 0.29, p-value<0.001). When adjusting for parity and other covariates in the model, women’s short-term fertility desires were significantly associated with their positive sero-status regardless of male partners’ sero-status (adjRR = 1.58, p<0.001 for F+M-; adjRR = 1.33, p = 0.001 for F+M+; in comparison with F-M-). Men’s short-term fertility desires were significantly associated with their positive sero-status, in addition to their female partners’ positive sero-status (adjRR = 1.23 with p-value = 0.022 for F-M+; adjRR = 1.42 with p-value<0.001 for F+M-; adjRR = 1.26 with p-value<0.001 for F+M+; in comparison with F-M-). When the differential effect of parity was included in the model, similar associations remained for both female and male partners when the number of living children was small, but largely reduced when the number of living children was large (3 or more). Conclusion: Female and male partners in couple dyads demonstrated moderate agreements about short-term fertility desires. The HIV seropositive status of female partners was most strongly associated with short-term fertility desires of both genders, and this association was even stronger for women who had few or no living children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies have been conducted on the relationship between education as an indicator of human capital and economic growth in our country. However, there have been a few studies regarding the simultaneous impact of health capital and education indicators on the economic growth of the provinces up to now. In this regard, the present study examined the impact of human health indicators and educational expenditures on the economic growth of the provinces of Iran. In this study, the dynamic effect of health capital indicators and educational expenditure along with the performance of the capital assets ownership on the growth of the economies was examined using the panel data obtained from the provinces during the years 2005-2015 by employing the generalized method of moments. The study results indicate that the fertility rate with a coefficient of 0.39, life expectancy with a coefficient of 0.202, and growth of household health expenditures with a coefficient of 0.045 had a positive effect on the economic growth of the provinces. However, the mortality rate with a coefficient of 0.203 had a significant negative effect on the provinces economic growth during the years under study. It was also found that educational expenditures growth and performance of capital assets ownership had a significant positive effect on the economic growth of the provinces. The health capital and its indicators are a long-term investment that should be considered as an important priority by the policymakers of the country and provinces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Japan’s ongoing struggle with rapid ageing is well known. Fertility and migration policies have both been proposed as solutions to Japan’s ageing population. We used stock flow population models to estimate the impact of hypothetical fertility and migration policy interventions on measures of aging in Japan from 2015 to 2050. We evaluated policy models based on the Old Age Dependency Ratio (OADR) they produced at the specified end date. Start dates ranged from 2020 to 2030 to assess the time horizons of individual policies. Fertility policies were found to be highly time dependent and only slowed the rate of increase of OADR. It would require a Total Fertility Rate far above replacement levels to compensate for Japan’s already aged demography. Migration policy was less time dependent. However, such measures would require unprecedented, and ultimately unrealistic, volumes of migration over coming decades in order to reduce Japan’s OADR. Our results suggest that fertility and migration based policy responses will be unable to significantly reduce Japan’s OADR or reverse Japan’s ageing population within the next few decades. Japan should focus on activating its human capital through the prolongation of working lives, increasing participation, and improving productivity within the Japanese labour force to mitigate and adapt to the inevitable effects of ageing populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the practice of self-control in an organizational social dilemma when the stakes are large, using 47 years of vital census data from 18th century Sweden. From 1750 to 1800, eighty percent of Sweden lived in a simple-structure organization called a bytvång or village commons. The amount of resources a village family received was a function of their size. During this period, crop failures left the population facing starvation. Using autoregressive time-series modeling, we test whether the people of Sweden continued to take steps toward increasing the stress on the commons by marrying and birthing children or practiced self-control. We find evidence that the peasantry–with little education, archaic agricultural practices, strong barriers to abortion and infanticide, and pressures by the Church and State to procreate–were less likely to marry and birth children (in or outside of wedlock) when the quality of the previous year’s harvest was poor compared to when it was bounteous. Post hoc analyses support the idea that the reason behind declining fertility after a famine was human decision rather than human physiology. Our findings are consistent with the idea that human population growth is not a social dilemma called a collective trap–which has been the assumption for 50 years. Rather, human population growth may be an individual dilemma–suggesting that members of simple-structured organizations can unilaterally exercise self-control and manage resources through self-organizing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By considering the difference in both the fertility rate and the ratio of skilled to unskilled workers for natives and immigrants, this study analyzes the impact of an inflow of immigrants in the Bismarckian system and compares its findings with the Beveridgian system analyzed by Krieger (2004). We show that the inflow of migrants can improve the welfare of both the young and the old generations in the host country under the looser conditions that characterize the Bismarckian system compared with the Beveridgian system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aim: In the past studies, few researchers have addressed the simultaneous effects of human capital in health and education indicators on the economic growth of the country, and especially, provinces of the country. Therefore, the current study examined the simultaneous effects of human capital in health and education indicators on the economic growth in Irans’ Provinces Materials and Methods: This was an applied, analytical, descriptive study, and the research community consisted of the country's provinces. The data were collected through documentary-library research and from the databases of Iran Office for National Statistics, and Central Bank; afterwards, they were analyzed via unit-root and chow tests, using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and Eviews 9. Results: The results showed that each percent of rise in family health expenditure, fertility rate, and life expectancy increased the provincial economic growth by 0.033%, 0.71%, and 1.83% respectively. In addition, 1% rise in mortality rate decreased the provincial economic growth by 0.43%. Educational expenditure influenced the provincial economic growth by a coefficient of 0.08, and credit capital asset acquisition, by a coefficient of 0.048. Conclusion: Human capital is considered a long-term investment in health and education sectors which should be an important priority on the agenda of provincial policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Low birth rates and infertility are growing concerns for many countries. The Artificial Reproduction Act (ARA) was implemented in 2007 to better support the use of assisted reproductive technology (ART) in Taiwan. This study aims to examine trends in the use of ART and to determine impacts of the ARA on ART use. Method: This study used data from the Health Promotion Administration in Taiwan. We used auto-regression models to examine the recent trends (1998–2017) in fertility related indicators and the use of ART. An interrupted time series design and segmented linear regression models were applied to analyze the changes in number of ART treatment cycles and birth rates by ART following the ARA. Results: The number of births by ART has gradually increased, with an annual growth rate of 21.55%. The rate of births by ART increased from 0.86% in 1998 to 1.44% in 2007, and to 4.33% in 2016 (annual growth rate: 41.23%). We estimated a relative increase of 78.51% (95%CI: 46.13%, 110.90%) in the number of births by ART and a relative increase of 35.67% (95%CI: 18.87%, 52.47%) in rate of births by ART 5 years following the ARA was implemented. Conclusion: ART has been seen as an approach to improve fertility. Our analysis suggests that the ART use and births associated from ART use both increased in Taiwan following the implementation of ARA. This experience in Taiwan may offer important lessons for other countries that are facing low fertility challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Projections of fertility of HIV positive women as ART scales up are needed to plan prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) services. We describe differences in exposure to pregnancy between HIV positive and HIV negative women by age, region and national ART coverage to evaluate the extent to which behavioural differences explain lower fertility among HIV positive women and assess whether exposure to pregnancy has changed with antiretroviral treatment (ART) scale-up. Methods: We analysed 46 nationally representative household surveys in sub-Saharan Africa conducted between 2003 and 2015 to estimate risk of exposure to recent sex and pregnancy of HIV positive and HIV negative women by age using a log binomial model. We tested for regional and urban/rural differences and associations with national ART coverage. We estimated an adjusted fertility rate ratio of HIV positive to HIV negative women adjusting for differences in exposure to pregnancy. Results: Exposure to pregnancy differs significantly between HIV positive and negative women by age, modified by region. Younger HIV positive women have a higher exposure to pregnancy than HIV negative women and the opposite is true at older ages. The switch occurs at 25–29 for rural women and 30–34 for urban women. There was no evidence that exposure to pregnancy of HIV positive women have changed as national ART coverage increased. The inferred rate of fecundity of HIV positive women when adjusted for differences in exposure to pregnancy were lower than unadjusted fertility rate ratios in women aged 20–29 and 20–24 in urban and rural areas respectively varying between 0.6 and 0.9 over regions. Discussion: The direct effects of HIV on fertility are broadly similar across ages, while the dramatic age gradient that has frequently been observed is largely attributable to variation in relative sexual exposure by age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]