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BackgroundUnderstanding the sources of HIV transmission provides a basis for prioritizing HIV prevention resources in specific geographic regions and populations. This study estimated the number, proportion, and rate of HIV transmissions attributable to individuals along the HIV care continuum within different HIV transmission risk groups in 6 US cities.MethodsWe used a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model that draws on racial behavior-specific or ethnic behavior-specific and risk behavior-specific linkage to HIV care and use of HIV prevention services from local, state, and national surveillance sources. We estimated the rate and number of HIV transmissions attributable to individuals in the stage of acute undiagnosed HIV, nonacute undiagnosed HIV, HIV diagnosed but antiretroviral therapy (ART) naïve, off ART, and on ART, stratified by HIV transmission group for the 2019 calendar year.ResultsIndividuals with undiagnosed nonacute HIV infection accounted for the highest proportion of total transmissions in every city, ranging from 36.8% (26.7%-44.9%) in New York City to 64.9% (47.0%-71.6%) in Baltimore. Individuals who had discontinued ART contributed to the second highest percentage of total infections in 4 of 6 cities. Individuals with acute HIV had the highest transmission rate per 100 person-years, ranging from 76.4 (58.9-135.9) in Miami to 160.2 (85.7-302.8) in Baltimore.ConclusionThese findings underline the importance of both early diagnosis and improved ART retention for ending the HIV epidemic in the United States. Differences in the sources of transmission across cities indicate that localized priority setting to effectively address diverse microepidemics at different stages of epidemic control is necessary.

BackgroundIn the USA, Black and Hispanic or Latinx individuals continue to be disproportionately affected by HIV. Applying a distributional cost-effectiveness framework, we estimated the cost-effectiveness and epidemiological impact of two combination implementation approaches to identify the approach that best meets the dual objectives of improving population health and reducing racial or ethnic health disparities.MethodsWe adapted a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model to characterise HIV micro-epidemics in six US cities: Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, and Seattle. We considered combinations of 16 evidence-based interventions to diagnose, treat, and prevent HIV transmission according to previously documented levels of scale-up. We then identified optimal combination strategies for each city, with the distribution of each intervention implemented according to existing service levels (proportional services approach) and the racial or ethnic distribution of new diagnoses (between Black, Hispanic or Latinx, and White or other ethnicity individuals; equity approach). We estimated total costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of strategies implemented from 2020 to 2030 (health-care perspective; 20-year time horizon; 3% annual discount rate). We estimated three measures of health inequality (between-group variance, index of disparity, Theil index), incidence rate ratios, and rate differences for the selected strategies under each approach.FindingsIn all cities, optimal combination strategies under the equity approach generated more QALYs than those with proportional services, ranging from a 3·1% increase (95% credible interval [CrI] 1·4-5·3) in New York to more than double (101·9% [75·4-134·6]) in Atlanta. Compared with proportional services, the equity approach delivered lower costs over 20 years in all cities except Los Angeles; cost reductions ranged from $22·9 million (95% CrI 5·3-55·7 million) in Seattle to $579·8 million (255·4-940·5 million) in Atlanta. The equity approach also reduced incidence disparities and health inequality measures in all cities except Los Angeles.InterpretationEquity-focused HIV combination implementation strategies that reduce disparities for Black and Hispanic or Latinx individuals can significantly improve population health, reduce costs, and drive progress towards Ending the HIV Epidemic goals in the USA.FundingNational Institute on Drug Abuse.

BackgroundWidespread viral and serological testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may present a unique opportunity to also test for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. We estimated the potential impact of adding linked, opt-out HIV testing alongside SARS-CoV-2 testing on the HIV incidence and the cost-effectiveness of this strategy in 6 US cities.MethodsUsing a previously calibrated dynamic HIV transmission model, we constructed 3 sets of scenarios for each city: (1) sustained current levels of HIV-related treatment and prevention services (status quo); (2) temporary disruptions in health services and changes in sexual and injection risk behaviors at discrete levels between 0%-50%; and (3) linked HIV and SARS-CoV-2 testing offered to 10%-90% of the adult population in addition to Scenario 2. We estimated the cumulative number of HIV infections between 2020-2025 and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of linked HIV testing over 20 years.ResultsIn the absence of linked, opt-out HIV testing, we estimated a total of a 16.5% decrease in HIV infections between 2020-2025 in the best-case scenario (50% reduction in risk behaviors and no service disruptions), and a 9.0% increase in the worst-case scenario (no behavioral change and 50% reduction in service access). We estimated that HIV testing (offered at 10%-90% levels) could avert a total of 576-7225 (1.6%-17.2%) new infections. The intervention would require an initial investment of $20.6M-$220.7M across cities; however, the intervention would ultimately result in savings in health-care costs in each city.ConclusionsA campaign in which HIV testing is linked with SARS-CoV-2 testing could substantially reduce the HIV incidence and reduce direct and indirect health care costs attributable to HIV.

We estimated human immunodeficiency virus incidence and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for black and Hispanic vs white populations in 6 cities in the United States (2020-2030). Large reductions in incidence are possible, but without elimination of disparities in healthcare access, we found that wide disparities persisted for black compared with white populations in particular (lowest IRR, 1.69 [95% credible interval, 1.19-2.30]).

ObjectivesIn high-income countries, hazardous alcohol use is associated with reduced receipt of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and viral suppression among people living with HIV (PLHIV) who inject drugs. These associations are less understood in lower middle-income countries (LMIC) and upper middle-income countries.DesignWe examined associations between hazardous alcohol use, ART receipt, and viral suppression among PLHIV who reported current or former injection drug use. Participants were from nine studies in the United States (high-income country), India (LMIC), Russia (upper middle-income country), and Vietnam (LMIC).MethodsHazardous alcohol use was measured via Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test. Outcomes were HIV viral suppression (viral load of

: Using a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated for six USA cities, we projected HIV incidence from 2020 to 2040 and estimated whether an established UNAIDS HIV epidemic control target could be met under ideal implementation of optimal combination strategies previously defined for each city. Four of six cities (Atlanta, Baltimore, New York City and Seattle) were projected to achieve epidemic control by 2040 and we identified differences in reaching epidemic control across racial/ethnic groups.

BackgroundPersons who inject drugs (PWID) are at a disproportionately high risk of HIV infection. We aimed to determine the highest-valued combination implementation strategies to reduce the burden of HIV among PWID in 6 US cities.MethodsUsing a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated for Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, and Seattle, we assessed the value of implementing combinations of evidence-based interventions at optimistic (drawn from best available evidence) or ideal (90% coverage) scale-up. We estimated reduction in HIV incidence among PWID, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for each city (10-year implementation; 20-year horizon; 2018 $ US).ResultsCombinations that maximized health benefits contained between 6 (Atlanta and Seattle) and 12 (Miami) interventions with ICER values ranging from $94 069/QALY in Los Angeles to $146 256/QALY in Miami. These strategies reduced HIV incidence by 8.1% (credible interval [CI], 2.8%-13.2%) in Seattle and 54.4% (CI, 37.6%-73.9%) in Miami. Incidence reduction reached 16.1%-75.5% at ideal scale.ConclusionsEvidence-based interventions targeted to PWID can deliver considerable value; however, ending the HIV epidemic among PWID will require innovative implementation strategies and supporting programs to reduce social and structural barriers to care.

BackgroundThe HIV epidemic in the USA is a collection of diverse local microepidemics. We aimed to identify optimal combination implementation strategies of evidence-based interventions to reach 90% reduction of incidence in 10 years, in six US cities that comprise 24·1% of people living with HIV in the USA.MethodsIn this economic modelling study, we used a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated with the best available evidence on epidemiological and structural conditions for six US cities: Atlanta (GA), Baltimore (MD), Los Angeles (CA), Miami (FL), New York City (NY), and Seattle (WA). We assessed 23 040 combinations of 16 evidence-based interventions (ie, HIV prevention, testing, treatment, engagement, and re-engagement) to identify combination strategies providing the greatest health benefit while remaining cost-effective. Main outcomes included averted HIV infections, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), total cost (in 2018 US$), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER; from the health-care sector perspective, 3% annual discount rate). Interventions were implemented at previously documented and ideal (90% coverage or adoption) scale-up, and sustained from 2020 to 2030, with outcomes evaluated until 2040.FindingsOptimal combination strategies providing health benefit and cost-effectiveness contained between nine (Seattle) and 13 (Miami) individual interventions. If implemented at previously documented scale-up, these strategies could reduce incidence by between 30·7% (95% credible interval 19·1-43·7; Seattle) and 50·1% (41·5-58·0; New York City) by 2030, at ICERs ranging from cost-saving in Atlanta, Baltimore, and Miami, to $95 416 per QALY in Seattle. Incidence reductions reached between 39·5% (26·3-53·8) in Seattle and 83·6% (70·8-87·0) in Baltimore at ideal implementation. Total costs of implementing strategies across the cities at previously documented scale-up reached $559 million per year in 2024; however, costs were offset by long-term reductions in new infections and delayed disease progression, with Atlanta, Baltimore, and Miami projecting cost savings over the 20 year study period.InterpretationEvidence-based interventions can deliver substantial public health and economic value; however, complementary strategies to overcome social and structural barriers to HIV care will be required to reach national targets of the ending the HIV epidemic initiative by 2030.FundingNational Institutes of Health.

ObjectiveEffective interventions to reduce the public health burden of HIV/AIDS can vary in their ability to deliver value at different levels of scale and in different epidemiological contexts. Our objective was to determine the cost-effectiveness of HIV treatment and prevention interventions implemented at previously documented scales of delivery in six US cities with diverse HIV microepidemics.DesignDynamic HIV transmission model-based cost-effectiveness analysis.MethodsWe identified and estimated previously documented scale of delivery and costs for 16 evidence-based interventions from the US CDC's Compendium of Evidence-Based Interventions and Best Practices for HIV Prevention. Using a model calibrated for Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City and Seattle, we estimated averted HIV infections, quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (healthcare perspective; 3% discount rate, 2018$US), for each intervention and city (10-year implementation) compared with the status quo over a 20-year time horizon.ResultsIncreased HIV testing was cost-saving or cost-effective across cities. Targeted preexposure prophylaxis for high-risk MSM was cost-saving in Miami and cost-effective in Atlanta ($6123/QALY), Baltimore ($18 333/QALY) and Los Angeles ($86 117/QALY). Interventions designed to improve antiretroviral therapy initiation provided greater value than other treatment engagement interventions. No single intervention was projected to reduce HIV incidence by more than 10.1% in any city.ConclusionCombination implementation strategies should be tailored to local epidemiological contexts to provide the most value. Complementary strategies addressing factors hindering access to HIV care will be necessary to meet targets for HIV elimination in the United States.

Background. Heterogeneity in HIV microepidemics across US cities necessitates locally oriented, combination implementation strategies to prioritize resources. We calibrated and validated a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model to establish a status quo treatment scenario, holding constant current levels of care for 6 US cities. Methods. Built off a comprehensive evidence synthesis, we adapted and extended a previously published model to replicate the transmission, progression, and clinical care for each microepidemic. We identified a common set of 17 calibration targets between 2012 and 2015 and used the Morris method to select the most influential parameters for calibration. We then applied the Nelder-Mead algorithm to iteratively calibrate the model to generate 2000 best-fitting parameter sets. Finally, model projections were internally validated with a series of robustness checks and externally validated against published estimates of HIV incidence, while the face validity of 25-year projections was assessed by a Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC). Results. We documented our process for model development, calibration, and validation to maximize its transparency and reproducibility. The projected outcomes demonstrated a good fit to calibration targets, with a mean goodness-of-fit ranging from 0.0174 (New York City [NYC]) to 0.0861 (Atlanta). Most of the incidence predictions were within the uncertainty range for 5 of the 6 cities (ranging from 21% [Miami] to 100% [NYC]), demonstrating good external validity. The face validity of the long-term projections was confirmed by our SAC, showing that the incidence would decrease or remain stable in Atlanta, Los Angeles, NYC, and Seattle while increasing in Baltimore and Miami. Discussion. This exercise provides a basis for assessing the incremental value of further investments in HIV combination implementation strategies tailored to urban HIV microepidemics.

IntroductionIn the era of HIV treatment as prevention (TasP), evidence-based interventions that optimize viral suppression among people who use stimulants such as methamphetamine are needed to improve health outcomes and reduce onward transmission risk. We tested the efficacy of positive affect intervention delivered during community-based contingency management (CM) for reducing viral load in sexual minority men living with HIV who use methamphetamine.MethodsConducted in San Francisco, this Phase II randomized controlled trial tested the efficacy of a positive affect intervention for boosting and extending the effectiveness of community-based CM for stimulant abstinence to achieve more durable reductions in HIV viral load. From 2013 to 2017, 110 sexual minority men living with HIV who had biologically confirmed, recent methamphetamine use were randomized to receive a positive affect intervention (n = 55) or attention-control condition (n = 55). All individual positive affect intervention and attention-control sessions were delivered during three months of community-based CM where participants received financial incentives for stimulant abstinence. The 5-session positive affect intervention was designed to provide skills for managing stimulant withdrawal symptoms as well as sensitize individuals to natural sources of reward. The attention-control condition consisted of neutral writing exercises and self-report measures.ResultsMen randomized to the positive affect intervention displayed significantly lower log10 HIV viral load at six, twelve and fifteen months compared to those in the attention-control condition. Men in the positive affect intervention also had significantly lower risk of at least one unsuppressed HIV RNA (≥200 copies/mL) over the 15-month follow-up. There were concurrent, statistically significant intervention-related increases in positive affect as well as decreases in the self-reported frequency of stimulant use at six and twelve months.ConclusionsDelivering a positive affect intervention during community-based CM with sexual minority men who use methamphetamine achieved durable and clinically meaningful reductions in HIV viral load that were paralleled by increases in positive affect and decreases in stimulant use. Further clinical research is needed to determine the effectiveness of integrative, behavioural interventions for optimizing the clinical and public health benefits of TasP in sexual minority men who use stimulants such as methamphetamine.

We estimated 10-year (2020-2030) trajectories for human immunodeficiency virus incidence in 6 US cities. Estimated incidence will only decrease in 2 of 6 cities, with the overall population-weighted incidence decreasing 3.1% (95% credible interval [CrI], -1.0% to 8.5%) by 2025, and 4.3% (95% CrI, -2.6% to 12.7%) by 2030 across cities. Targeted, context-specific combination implementation strategies will be necessary to meet the newly established national targets.

BackgroundCurrent evidence suggests that periodontal disease (PD) is associated with a significant increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) independent of known confounders. PD is a chronic oral disease with significant variation in prevalence demonstrated among Hispanic/Latino subgroups. The purpose of this study was to investigate the associations between PD and CVD risk and variations with sex, age, and Hispanic/Latino background.MethodsThe sample included 7379 participants aged 30 to 74 years, from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (2008 to 2011). We assessed CVD risk by the Framingham 10-year general CVD risk score (FGRS). PD severity classification was based on calibrated measurements of gingival recession and probing depth. Multivariable sequential linear models for complex sample design assessed FGRS by PD severity, Hispanic/Latino background, and covariates.ResultsThe prevalence of moderate and severe PD combined was 46%. For women and men with severe PD, the combined prevalence of moderate and high CVD risk was 44% and 85%, respectively. The FGRS observed for women (5.1% [95% CI: 4.1%, 6.0%], p

Individuals living with HIV report disproportionately high levels of trauma exposure and PTSD symptoms, both which have been associated with suboptimal ART adherence. Often conflated, the question arises as to which construct is driving subsequent HIV self-care behavior. Given the HIV disparities among Black and Hispanic/Latinx individuals, and that Miami is a geographic region with a high racial/ethnic minority make up and a unique socioeconomic environment, it is important to explore factors related to HIV outcomes in Miami to mitigate its uncontrolled epidemic. This study aimed to examine the association of trauma exposure, PTSD symptoms, and relevant additional key factors with adherence to ART among a sample of majority Black and Hispanic/Latinx individuals who are economically marginalized receiving public HIV care in Miami, FL (N = 1237) via a cross-sectional survey. Sequential linear regression was used to examine the study aim in four blocks: (1) trauma, (2) PTSD symptoms, and key covariates of ART adherence including (3) depression and substance use (potential psychological covariates), and (4) indicators of socioeconomic status (potential structural covariates). In the first block, trauma exposure was associated with worse adherence. However, in the second block, the association with trauma dropped and PTSD was significantly associated with worse adherence. Of note, for those experiencing high levels of trauma exposure, adherence was negatively impacted regardless of PTSD. When other key factors associated with adherence were entered in the third and fourth blocks, neither trauma exposure nor PTSD were uniquely significant. In this final model, depression, substance use, and unstable housing were uniquely associated with worse adherence. Trauma-informed models of HIV care that holistically address co-occurring factors are warranted to cater to communities with HIV health disparities and keep them from falling off the HIV care continuum., Author(s): Tiffany R. Glynn [sup.1] , Noelle A. Mendez [sup.1] , Deborah L. Jones [sup.3] , Sannisha K. Dale [sup.1] , Adam W. Carrico [sup.2] , Daniel J. Feaster [sup.2] [...]

Introduction: Improving the delivery of existing evidence‐based interventions to prevent and diagnose HIV is key to Ending the HIV Epidemic in the United States. Structural barriers in the access and delivery of related health services require municipal or state‐level policy changes; however, suboptimal implementation can be addressed directly through interventions designed to improve the reach, effectiveness, adoption or maintenance of available interventions. Our objective was to estimate the cost‐effectiveness and potential epidemiological impact of six real‐world implementation interventions designed to address these barriers and increase the scale of delivery of interventions for HIV testing and pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in three US metropolitan areas. Methods: We used a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated to replicate HIV microepidemics in Atlanta, Los Angeles (LA) and Miami. We identified six implementation interventions designed to improve HIV testing uptake ("Academic detailing for HIV testing," "CyBER/testing," "All About Me") and PrEP uptake/persistence ("Project SLIP," "PrEPmate," "PrEP patient navigation"). Our comparator scenario reflected a scale‐up of interventions with no additional efforts to mitigate implementation and structural barriers. We accounted for potential heterogeneity in population‐level effectiveness across jurisdictions. We sustained implementation interventions over a 10‐year period and evaluated HIV acquisitions averted, costs, quality‐adjusted life years and incremental cost‐effectiveness ratios over a 20‐year time horizon (2023–2042). Results: Across jurisdictions, implementation interventions to improve the scale of HIV testing were most cost‐effective in Atlanta and LA (CyBER/testing cost‐saving and All About Me cost‐effective), while interventions for PrEP were most cost‐effective in Miami (two of three were cost‐saving). We estimated that the most impactful HIV testing intervention, CyBER/testing, was projected to avert 111 (95% credible interval: 110–111), 230 (228–233) and 101 (101–103) acquisitions over 20 years in Atlanta, LA and Miami, respectively. The most impactful implementation intervention to improve PrEP engagement, PrEPmate, averted an estimated 936 (929–943), 860 (853–867) and 2152 (2127–2178) acquisitions over 20 years, in Atlanta, LA and Miami, respectively. Conclusions: Our results highlight the potential impact of interventions to enhance the implementation of existing evidence‐based interventions for the prevention and diagnosis of HIV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]