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Abstract Background Research consistently finds poorer health and educational outcomes for children who have experienced out-of-home care relative to the general population. Few studies have explored differences between those in care and those in receipt of intervention from social services but not in care. Children receiving social services interventions often experience Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs), and deprivation, which are known to negatively impact outcomes. We aimed to estimate the association of different social services interventions with educational outcomes and hospital admissions, while adjusting for ACEs and deprivation. Methods We linked retrospective, routinely collected administrative records from health, education, and social care to create a cohort via the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) databank in Wales, UK. We analysed data for children and household members (N = 30,439) across four different groups: (1) no social care intervention; (2) children in need but not in care (CIN); (3) children on the Child Protection Register but not in care (CPR); (4) children in care - i.e. removed from the family home and looked after by the local authority (CLA). Our primary outcome was education outcomes at age 16 years. Secondary outcomes were all cause emergency hospital admissions, and emergency admissions for external causes/injuries. Results Children in receipt of social services intervention were more likely to not attain the expected level upon leaving statutory education at age 16 after adjusting for ACEs and other characteristics (for children who had been in out-of-home care (conditional OR: 1·76, (95%CI) 1·25 − 2·48), in need (2·51, 2·00–3·15) and those at risk (i.e., on the child protection register) (4·04, 2·44 − 6·68). For all-cause emergency admissions, all social care groups were at greater risk compared to children in the general population (children in care (conditional HR: 1·31, 1·01–1·68), children in need (1·62, 1·38 − 1·90), and children at risk (1·51, 1·11 − 2·04). Conclusions All groups receiving social service intervention experience poorer educational and health outcomes than peers in the general population. Children who remain with their home parents or caregivers but are identified as ‘in need’ or ‘at risk’ by social care practitioners require further research. Integrated support is needed from multiple sectors, including health, educational and social care.

Background and Objectives SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and young people (CYP) can lead to life threatening conditions including COVID-19, transmission to more vulnerable individuals, or even long COVID. Vaccination against COVID-19 reduces the chance of infection and transmission of the virus, but vaccine uptake in the UK has been shown to decrease with age. Approach We undertook a multistate-model approach to estimate hazard ratios on national cohorts constructed from linked health and administrative data, adjusting for several demographic factors. The models were applied to 3,433,483 CYP aged 5-17 years between 4th August 2021 and 31st May 2022. The results were combined in a random effects meta-analysis. Results Uptake of the first COVID-19 vaccine in CYP was lower compared to older age groups in the UK, and diminished further with subsequent doses (34%, 20% and 2% for 1st, 2nd, and booster dose respectively). Age of the CYP and vaccination status of the adults in the household were identified as important risk factors. For example, 5-11-year-olds were less likely to receive their first vaccine compared to 16-17-year-olds (adjusted Hazard Ratio [aHR]: 0.10 (95%CI: 0.06-0.19), and CYP in unvaccinated households were less likely to receive their first vaccine compared to partially vaccinated households (aHR: 0.19, 95%CI 0.13-0.29). Conclusions and Implications Our work highlights the need for targeted strategies to increase COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and uptake among CYP, especially considering the influence of parental consent and household factors. Further research could help identify risk factors in household types to investigate more direct associations, which may be influenced by factors such as living with vulnerable people, familial structure, or deprivation.

Objective This study aims to create a national ethnicity spine based on all available ethnicity records in linkable anonymised electronic health record and administrative data sources.Design A longitudinal study using anonymised individual-level population-scale ethnicity data from 26 data sources available within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank.Setting The national ethnicity spine is created based on longitudinal national data for the population of Wales-UK over 22 years (between 2000 and 2021).Procedure and participants A total of 46 million ethnicity records for 4 297 694 individuals have been extracted, harmonised, deduplicated and made available within a longitudinal research ready data asset.Outcome measures (1) Comparing the distribution of ethnicity records over time for four different selection approaches (latest, mode, weighted mode and composite) across age bands, sex, deprivation quintiles, health board and residential location and (2) distribution and completeness of records against the ONS census 2011.Results The distribution of the dominant group (white) is minimally affected based on the four different selection approaches. Across all other ethnic group categorisations, the mixed group was most susceptible to variation in distribution depending on the selection approach used and varied from a 0.6% prevalence across the latest and mode approach to a 1.1% prevalence for the weighted mode, compared with the 3.1% prevalence for the composite approach. Substantial alignment was observed with ONS 2011 census with the Latest group method (kappa=0.68, 95% CI (0.67 to 0.71)) across all subgroups. The record completeness rate was over 95% in 2021.Conclusion In conclusion, our development of the population-scale ethnicity spine provides robust ethnicity measures for healthcare research in Wales and a template which can easily be deployed in other trusted research environments in the UK and beyond.

Abstract SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and young people (CYP) can lead to life-threatening COVID-19, transmission within households and schools, and the development of long COVID. Using linked health and administrative data, we investigated vaccine uptake among 3,433,483 CYP aged 5–17 years across all UK nations between 4th August 2021 and 31st May 2022. We constructed national cohorts and undertook multi-state modelling and meta-analysis to identify associations between demographic variables and vaccine uptake. We found that uptake of the first COVID-19 vaccine among CYP was low across all four nations compared to other age groups and diminished with subsequent doses. Age and vaccination status of adults living in the same household were identified as important risk factors associated with vaccine uptake in CYP. For example, 5–11 year-olds were less likely to receive their first vaccine compared to 16–17 year-olds (adjusted Hazard Ratio [aHR]: 0.10 (95%CI: 0.06–0.19)), and CYP in unvaccinated households were less likely to receive their first vaccine compared to CYP in partially vaccinated households (aHR: 0.19, 95%CI 0.13–0.29).

Abstract Background Socioeconomic differences in the impact of alcohol consumption on health have been consistently reported in the so-called “alcohol harm paradox” (i.e., individuals from higher socioeconomic backgrounds (SES) drink more alcohol than individuals from lower SES, but the latter accrue more alcohol-related harm). Despite the severe health risks of smoking however, there is a scarcity of studies examining a possible “smoking harm paradox” (SHP). We aim to fill this gap. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study with adolescents from the Norwegian Longitudinal Health Behaviour Study (NLHB). Our study used data from ages 13 to 30 years. To analyse our data, we used the random-intercept cross-lagged panel model (RI-CLPM) with smoking and self-reported health as mutual lagged predictors and outcomes as well as parental income and education as grouping variables. Parental income and education were used as proxies for adolescent socioeconomic status (SES). Smoking was examined through frequency of smoking (every day, every week, less than once a week, not at all). General health compared to others was measured by self-report. Results Overall, we found inconclusive evidence of the smoking harm paradox, as not all effects from smoking to self-reported health were moderated by SES. Nevertheless, the findings do suggest that smoking predicted worse subjective health over time among individuals in the lower parental education group compared with those in the higher parental education group. This pattern was not found for parental income. Conclusions While our results suggest limited evidence for a smoking harm paradox (SHP), they also suggest that the impact of adolescent smoking on later subjective health is significant for individuals with low parental education but not individuals with high parental education. This effect was not found for parental income, highlighting the potential influence of parental education over income as a determinant of subjective health outcomes in relation to smoking.

Abstract Background The CVD-COVID-UK consortium was formed to understand the relationship between COVID-19 and cardiovascular diseases through analyses of harmonised electronic health records (EHRs) across the four UK nations. Beyond COVID-19, data harmonisation and common approaches enable analysis within and across independent Trusted Research Environments. Here we describe the reproducible harmonisation method developed using large-scale EHRs in Wales to accommodate the fast and efficient implementation of cross-nation analysis in England and Wales as part of the CVD-COVID-UK programme. We characterise current challenges and share lessons learnt. Methods Serving the scope and scalability of multiple study protocols, we used linked, anonymised individual-level EHR, demographic and administrative data held within the SAIL Databank for the population of Wales. The harmonisation method was implemented as a four-layer reproducible process, starting from raw data in the first layer. Then each of the layers two to four is framed by, but not limited to, the characterised challenges and lessons learnt. We achieved curated data as part of our second layer, followed by extracting phenotyped data in the third layer. We captured any project-specific requirements in the fourth layer. Results Using the implemented four-layer harmonisation method, we retrieved approximately 100 health-related variables for the 3.2 million individuals in Wales, which are harmonised with corresponding variables for > 56 million individuals in England. We processed 13 data sources into the first layer of our harmonisation method: five of these are updated daily or weekly, and the rest at various frequencies providing sufficient data flow updates for frequent capturing of up-to-date demographic, administrative and clinical information. Conclusions We implemented an efficient, transparent, scalable, and reproducible harmonisation method that enables multi-nation collaborative research. With a current focus on COVID-19 and its relationship with cardiovascular outcomes, the harmonised data has supported a wide range of research activities across the UK.

Abstract There is a need for better understanding of the risk of thrombocytopenic, haemorrhagic, thromboembolic disorders following first, second and booster vaccination doses and testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. Self-controlled cases series analysis of 2.1 million linked patient records in Wales between 7th December 2020 and 31st December 2021. Outcomes were the first diagnosis of thrombocytopenic, haemorrhagic and thromboembolic events in primary or secondary care datasets, exposure was defined as 0–28 days post-vaccination or a positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test for SARS-CoV-2. 36,136 individuals experienced either a thrombocytopenic, haemorrhagic or thromboembolic event during the study period. Relative to baseline, our observations show greater risk of outcomes in the periods post-first dose of BNT162b2 for haemorrhagic (IRR 1.47, 95%CI: 1.04–2.08) and idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura (IRR 2.80, 95%CI: 1.21–6.49) events; post-second dose of ChAdOx1 for arterial thrombosis (IRR 1.14, 95%CI: 1.01–1.29); post-booster greater risk of venous thromboembolic (VTE) (IRR-Moderna 3.62, 95%CI: 0.99–13.17) (IRR-BNT162b2 1.39, 95%CI: 1.04–1.87) and arterial thrombosis (IRR-Moderna 3.14, 95%CI: 1.14–8.64) (IRR-BNT162b2 1.34, 95%CI: 1.15–1.58). Similarly, post SARS-CoV-2 infection the risk was increased for haemorrhagic (IRR 1.49, 95%CI: 1.15–1.92), VTE (IRR 5.63, 95%CI: 4.91, 6.4), arterial thrombosis (IRR 2.46, 95%CI: 2.22–2.71). We found that there was a measurable risk of thrombocytopenic, haemorrhagic, thromboembolic events after COVID-19 vaccination and infection.

Abstract Background Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are negatively associated with a range of child health outcomes. In this study, we explored associations between five individual ACEs and child mental health diagnoses or symptoms. ACEs included living with someone who had an alcohol-related problem, common mental health disorder or serious mental illness, or experienced victimisation or death of a household member. Methods We analysed data from a population-level electronic cohort of children in Wales, UK, (N = 191,035) between the years of 1998 and 2012. We used Cox regression with discrete time-varying exposure variables to model time to child mental health diagnosis during the first 15 years of life. Child mental health diagnoses include five categories: (i) externalising symptoms (anti-social behaviour), (ii) internalising symptoms (stress, anxiety, depression), (iii) developmental delay (e.g. learning disability), (iv) other (e.g. eating disorder, personality disorders), and (v) any mental health diagnosis, which was created by combining externalising symptoms, internalising symptoms and other. Our analyses were adjusted for social deprivation and perinatal risk factors. Results There were strong univariable associations between the five individual ACEs, sociodemographic and perinatal factors (e.g. gestational weight at birth) and an increased risk of child mental health diagnoses. After adjusting for sociodemographic and perinatal aspects, there was a remaining conditional increased risk of any child mental health diagnosis, associated with victimisation (conditional hazard ratio (cHR) 1.90, CI 95% 1.34–2.69), and living with an adult with a common mental health diagnosis (cHR 1.63, CI 95% 1.52–1.75). Coefficients of product terms between ACEs and deprivation were not statistically significant. Conclusion The increased risk of child mental health diagnosis associated with victimisation, or exposure to common mental health diagnoses, and alcohol problems in the household supports the need for policy measures and intervention strategies for children and their families.

Objectives Examine if pre-COVID-19 pandemic (prior March 2020) health-related behaviours during primary school are associated with (1) being tested for SARS-CoV-2 and (2) testing positive between 1 March 2020 and 31 August 2021.Design Retrospective cohort study using an online cohort survey (January 2018 to February 2020) linked with routine PCR SARS-CoV-2 test results.Setting Children attending primary schools in Wales (2018–2020), UK, who were part of the Health and Attainment of Pupils in a Primary Education Network (HAPPEN)_school network.Participants Complete linked records of eligible participants were obtained for n=7062 individuals. 39.1% (n=2764) were tested (age 10.6±0.9; 48.9% girls) and 8.1% (n=569) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (age 10.6±1.0; 54.5% girls).Main outcome measures Logistic regression of health-related behaviours and demographics were used to determine the ORs of factors associated with (1) being tested for SARS-CoV-2 and (2) testing positive for SARS-CoV-2.Results Consuming sugary snacks (1–2 days/week OR=1.24, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.49; 5–6 days/week OR=1.31, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.61; reference 0 days), can swim 25 m (OR=1.21, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.39) and age (OR=1.25, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.35) were associated with an increased likelihood of being tested for SARS-CoV-2. Eating breakfast (OR=1.52, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.27), weekly physical activity ≥60 min (1–2 days OR=1.69, 95% CI 1.04 to 2.74; 3–4 days OR=1.76, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.82; reference 0 days), out-of-school club participation (OR=1.06, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.10), can ride a bike (OR=1.39, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.93), age (OR=1.16, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.28) and girls (OR=1.21, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.46) were associated with an increased likelihood of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. Living in least deprived areas (quintile 4 OR=0.64, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.90; quintile 5 OR=0.64, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.89) compared with the most deprived (quintile 1) was associated with a decreased likelihood.Conclusions Associations may be related to parental health literacy and monitoring behaviours. Physically active behaviours may include coparticipation with others and exposure to SARS-CoV-2. A risk-versus-benefit approach must be considered in relation to promoting these health behaviours, given the importance of health-related behaviours such as childhood physical activity for development.

Objectives Mental wellbeing can deteriorate throughout adolescence; females and children from low-income families more likely to experience mental health conditions. Views of greenspace from home positively impact cognition, but links with wellbeing has not been explored in children. We linked environment and survey data for 14 year olds in Wales, UK. Approach Our cross-sectional study examined the relationship between views of greenspace and wellbeing for >1000 children aged 14 years living in Wales between 2015-2016. We linked data on views of greenspace from the home location with individual-level wellbeing and socio-demographic data in the SAIL Databank; a secure research environment. Our health outcome was derived from self-reported wellbeing measures in the Millennium Cohort Study. Views of greenspace were derived from LiDAR data and quantified on a continuous scale (0-1). We used Generalised Additive Models to investigate associations between views of greenspace and wellbeing; adjusting for factors such as parent wellbeing and deprivation. Results Homes in coastal areas had larger views of greenspace than non-coastal residences. Individuals living in the most deprived areas had smaller views of greenspace (mean = 0.03) than least deprived (mean = 0.12). Overall, individuals living in detached homes had the greatest views of greenspace (0.4) and flats had the poorest views of greenspace (mean = 0.02). We will report our final regression analyses at the conference investigating the association between views of greenspace and adolescent wellbeing. Our models will be fully adjusted and sub-analyses will be stratified by gender and urban/rural status. We will also report findings on whether deprivation mediates for any relationships. Conclusion Our study is the first to link objectively measured views of greenspace with wellbeing data for a national cohort. Our results can be used to develop interventions to support good wellbeing in adolescents. Further longitudinal research is required to investigate the causal pathways between views of greenspace and adolescent wellbeing.

The COVID-19 pandemic has placed a spotlight on existing and enduring health inequalities experienced by different ethnic groups. There has been a longstanding call to generate and improve the use of ethnicity data available across different data sources, in order to improve our understanding of health risks, behaviours and outcomes. We used multiple anonymised individual-level population-scale data sources available within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank to develop a harmonised ethnicity spine for the population of Wales. We documented ethnicity information in multiple longitudinal records from January 2000 onwards. Data sources included: health and social care, birth and mortality records, national census records, specialist clinical audits and registers, surveys and other routine electronic data. To enable multi-source harmonisation, we explored the ethnicity categorisation as well as temporal changes in recording and classifications by obtaining distribution of records for population, which informed our harmonisation algorithm for standardisation of ethnicity records. We used over 20-data sources on ~5-million individuals, spanning varying time-periods starting from January 2000 upto a maximum of 22-years. We harmonised available recorded ethnicity values into standardised ethnic classification groups within a national ethnicity-spine. Furthermore, we investigated the impact of different harmonisation methods, including composite, latest date of recording, modal and weighted modal results. With the main focus of the methodological development being in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, when linked to the ~3.1 million individuals alive and resident in Wales from January 2020, we generated harmonised ethnic groups towards ~95% completeness in data coverage for the whole population of Wales. The predominant ethnic group in Wales observed was White, accounting for 89% of the population when using the latest date of recording method. This research highlights challenges in using longitudinal ethnicity data across different sources. Further work is needed to understand the basis on which individuals / organisations record ethnicity overtime. We recommend improvements recognising differences between ethnicity and other social constructs (e.g. ancestry, nationality, country of origin) are better documented / understood.

Objectives Research on bi-directional associations between self-reported caregiver mental health and child development is mixed. Through linkage of a cohort study and primary care data, we examine whether maternal mental health diagnoses, treatment and symptoms are bi-directionally associated with child development, namely emotional and conduct problems, hyperactivity and peer problems. Approach We accessed 14 years of data by linking the Millennium Cohort Study (in Wales) to anonymised individual-level population-scale health and administrative data within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. We identified maternal mental health problems using John et al’s (2016) existing algorithm for anxiety and depression diagnoses, symptoms and treatment. We measured child development using parent-reports of the Strengths and Difficulties questionnaire. Outcomes were tested when the child was 3, 5, 7, 11 and 14 years of age. We used Bayesian Structural Equation Modelling, specifically Random-Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Models, to analyse within and between-person associations. Results We found that mother’s mental health was strongly associated over time, as were children’s development difficulties. Cross-lagged associations from mother to child were weakly positively associated at age 3 to 5 for child total scores, and at age 11 to 14 for child emotional problems. In contrast, child development associations with maternal mental health were significant from age 7 to 11 for total scores, emotional and peer problems, but weakly associated at age 3 to 5, and 11 to 14 for conduct problems. Hyperactivity had few associations. Few associations at the same-time point were found, but emotional problems at age 11 and 14 were positively associated, as were hyperactivity at age 14, and peer problems at age 11. Between-person effects were consistently strongly associated. Conclusion We find mixed evidence for bi-directional associations, but strong between-person associations. Overall development and emotional problem models showed more bi-directional relationships; child development was positively associated with mother’s mental health event at age 7 for all models except hyperactivity, conduct problems were weakly associated at age 5 and 11.

BackgroundSeveral countries restricted the administration of ChAdOx1 to older age groups in 2021 over safety concerns following case reports and observed versus expected analyses suggesting a possible association with cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST). Large datasets are required to precisely estimate the association between Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination and CVST due to the extreme rarity of this event. We aimed to accomplish this by combining national data from England, Scotland, and Wales.Methods and findingsWe created data platforms consisting of linked primary care, secondary care, mortality, and virological testing data in each of England, Scotland, and Wales, with a combined cohort of 11,637,157 people and 6,808,293 person years of follow-up. The cohort start date was December 8, 2020, and the end date was June 30, 2021. The outcome measure we examined was incident CVST events recorded in either primary or secondary care records. We carried out a self-controlled case series (SCCS) analysis of this outcome following first dose vaccination with ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2. The observation period consisted of an initial 90-day reference period, followed by a 2-week prerisk period directly prior to vaccination, and a 4-week risk period following vaccination. Counts of CVST cases from each country were tallied, then expanded into a full dataset with 1 row for each individual and observation time period. There was a combined total of 201 incident CVST events in the cohorts (29.5 per million person years). There were 81 CVST events in the observation period among those who a received first dose of ChAdOx1 (approximately 16.34 per million doses) and 40 for those who received a first dose of BNT162b2 (approximately 12.60 per million doses). We fitted conditional Poisson models to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Vaccination with ChAdOx1 was associated with an elevated risk of incident CVST events in the 28 days following vaccination, IRR = 1.93 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20 to 3.11). We did not find an association between BNT162b2 and CVST in the 28 days following vaccination, IRR = 0.78 (95% CI 0.34 to 1.77). Our study had some limitations. The SCCS study design implicitly controls for variables that are constant over the observation period, but also assumes that outcome events are independent of exposure. This assumption may not be satisfied in the case of CVST, firstly because it is a serious adverse event, and secondly because the vaccination programme in the United Kingdom prioritised the clinically extremely vulnerable and those with underlying health conditions, which may have caused a selection effect for individuals more prone to CVST. Although we pooled data from several large datasets, there was still a low number of events, which may have caused imprecision in our estimates.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed a small elevated risk of CVST events following vaccination with ChAdOx1, but not BNT162b2. Our analysis pooled information from large datasets from England, Scotland, and Wales. This evidence may be useful in risk-benefit analyses of vaccine policies and in providing quantification of risks associated with vaccination to the general public.

To date no study has examined time trends in adolescent consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages and energy drinks, or modelled change in inequalities over time. The present study aimed to fill this gap by identifying historical trends among secondary school students in Wales, United Kingdom. The present study includes 11-16 year olds who completed the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) survey and the Welsh School Health Research Network (SHRN) survey between 1998 to 2017. Multinomial regression models were employed alongside tests for interaction effects. A total of 176,094 student responses were assessed. From 1998 to 2017, the prevalence of daily sugar-sweetened beverage consumption decreased (57% to 18%) while weekly consumption has remained constant since 2006 (49% to 52%). From 2013 to 2017, daily consumption of energy drinks remained stable (6%) while weekly consumption reports steadily decreased (23% to 15%). Boys, older children and those from a low socioeconomic group reported higher consumption rates of sugar-sweetened beverages and energy drinks. Consumption according to socioeconomic group was the only characteristic to show a statistically significant change over time, revealing a widening disparity between sugar-sweetened beverage consumption rates of those from low and high socioeconomic groups. Findings indicate a positive shift in overall consumption rates of both sugar-sweetened beverages and energy drinks. Adolescents from a low socioeconomic group however were consistently shown to report unfavourable sugar-sweetened beverages consumption when compared to peers from high socioeconomic group. Given the established longer term impacts of sugar-sweetened beverage and energy drink consumption on adolescent health outcomes, urgent policy action is required to reduce overall consumption rates, with close attention to equity of impact throughout policy design and evaluation plans.