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We have reconstructed baseline δ15N and δ13C of export production at Kingman Reef in the Central Equatorial Pacific (CEP) at sub-decadal resolution, nearly continuously over the last 2000 years. The changes in δ15N reflects the strength of the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) relative to the South Equatorial Current (SEC), and to a lesser extent, the North Equatorial Current (NEC). Seasonal to multi-decadal variation in the strength of these currents, through the redistribution of heat, have global climate impacts and influence marine and terrestrial ecosystems. We use modern El Niño-La Nina dynamics and the Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability (TPDV) pattern, which is defined in the CEP, as a framework for analyzing the isotopic data. The CEP δ15N and δ13C records exhibit multi-decadal (50-60 year) variability consistent with TPDV. A large multi-centennial feature in the CEP δ15N data, within age-model uncertainties, is consistent with one of the prolonged dry-pluvial sequences in the American west at the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, where low TPDV is correlated with drier conditions. This unique record shows that the strength of the NECC, as reflected in baseline δ15N and δ13C, has at quasi-predictable intervals throughout the late Holocene, toggled the phytoplankton community between prokaryotes and picoplankton versus eukaryotes.

ABSTRACT Flash drought events can be characterised by the quick depletion of crop root zone soil moisture (rapid intensification) and hence can be termed as agricultural flash droughts. These events can have devastating impacts, such as increasing the risk of agricultural yield loss, heatwaves and increased wildfire risk, which further have cascading impacts on the socio‐economic conditions. The regional hotspots of flash droughts are analysed for winter, pre‐monsoon, monsoon and post‐monsoon seasons over India from 1981 to 2020. We assess the impact of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the flash drought frequency (FDF: number of flash drought events). The causal connection of the FDF with the ENSO and IOD is analysed using the PCMCI (Peter and Clark's algorithm combined with the Momentary Conditional Independence) algorithm. The monsoon season (June–September) is found to be more prone to flash droughts with higher spatial/regional average values of total per pixel FDF during the 40‐year period over the Central Northeast (~54) and West Central (~41) regions. It is observed that the fraction of the total number of flash droughts during the El Niño years (38.8%) is higher as compared with that in La Niña years (25.7%). It is also found that the co‐occurrence of positive/negative IOD with the El Niño phase can alter the seasonal fraction of FDF over India, highlighting the high complexity in the ENSO–IOD interactions. The causal analysis shows that only the Southern Peninsula and West Central regions have significant direct and lagged causal links of average per pixel FDF with IOD. Whereas, similar (direct and lagged) causal connections are observed between the ENSO and IOD. This study reveals that flash droughts and their teleconnections vary greatly among the seasons and regions in India, limiting its accurate predictions and increasing the risk to agricultural communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modules precipitation variability at seasonal and monthly scale over Southeastern South America (SESA), but also has incidence on how daily precipitation is distributed throughout the month. While most of the studies addressed the precipitation response at seasonal scale, the community research is advancing on the understanding of teleconnections at a finer scale. The objective of this study is to assess ENSO signal on the intensity and length of individual precipitation events at sub-seasonal scale during October-February for the period 1979–2015 over SESA. The distribution of precipitation was characterized through wet spells (WS): number and intensity for each month (NWS and IntWS, respectively). In the study region, short WS (1 day length) are more frequent over Uruguay and the southern part of Argentina whereas medium WS (2–6 days length) dominates in the center of the region. Both short and medium WS present higher intensity over central SESA. The ENSO signal is stronger during November over the center of the study region and during December over Uruguay, and weakens the following months. Both hot spots during these months consist on higher monthly precipitation characterized by longer and more intense WS under El Niño phase, at the expense of lower occurrence of individual (1 day) rainfall events. Regarding inter-event variability, El Niño composite is more representative of strong events whereas mostly La Niña events presented negative anomalies with variable spatial pattern. This research is a contribution to answer to user demands for action planning to reduce climatic risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal upwelling plays a vital role in the support and maintenance of productive marine ecosystems throughout the California Current System (CCS). Here, we evaluate upwelling forecast skill using ∼30 years of seasonal reforecasts from four global climate models contributing to the North American Mulitmodel Ensemble (NMME). The models skillfully predict upwelling intensity throughout much of the CCS in boreal winter, and in the South‐Central CCS in spring/summer. The models also skillfully predict various aspects of upwelling phenology, including the timing of the spring transition, as well as the total vertical transport integrated over the course of the upwelling season. Climatic sources of forecast skill vary with season, with contributions from the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation in winter‐spring, and the North Pacific Oscillation and the North Pacific Meridional Mode in the winter‐summer. Our results highlight the potential of seasonal climate forecasts to inform management of upwelling‐sensitive marine resources. Plain Language Summary: Upwelling—the process of drawing cold, nutrient rich ocean waters toward the surface—plays a vital role in supporting vibrant and diverse biological populations throughout the California Current System (CCS). Here, we assess whether four global climate models can forecast seasonal upwelling 1–12 months in advance. We show that for much of the year (winter through summer), models can predict anomalous upwelling intensity several months in advance. We also show that the models can predict the timing of the "spring transition" (i.e., the start of the upwelling season) for much of the CCS. The model skill is related to large‐scale climate modes, including the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, the North Pacific Oscillation, and the Pacific Meridional Mode. These climate modes alter the strength of the surface winds along the U.S. west coast from winter‐summer, giving rise to predictable patterns of upwelling. Our results highlight the potential of seasonal climate forecasts to inform management of upwelling‐sensitive marine resources. Key Points: Global climate models skillfully predict upwelling in the California Current System in winter‐summerModels also skillfully predict timing of spring transitionWinter skill is linked to the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and North Pacific Oscillation, summer skill with the Pacific Meridional Mode [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate how seasonal flow variations and a climatic regime that is dominated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence Sb flux dynamics in an Australian river impacted by mining. Sampling (n = 496) spans a hydrologically complex 7‐year period of drought, bushfires and floods from 2016 to 2023, during which 17% of samples exceeded the Sb drinking water guideline concentration (3 μg L−1). Aqueous Sb (SbAq) concentration–discharge (C–Q) relationships are non‐continuous/non‐linear across the flow range, with chemodynamic behaviour at moderate flows reflecting hydrological connection to the primary Sb‐source area combined with variable dilution. In contrast chemostatic behaviour occurred at extreme low and high flows, reflecting hydrological disconnection from the source area and persistent dilution, respectively. SbAq was significantly positively correlated (p < 0.01, Spearman's ρ = 0.58) with a Q index representing the proportional contribution of sub‐catchment flow from the mineral‐field area, suggesting sufficient localised rainfall in the Sb mining‐impacted sub‐catchment contributes to downstream peaks in SbAq concentrations. Aqueous and particulate Sb (SbP) annual loads (La) during the study period spanned 24–5174 and 1.2–2820 kg, respectively and were strongly flow dependant with extreme interannual variability reflecting dry and wet years. We extrapolate daily load‐daily discharge (Ld–Qd) relationships for SbAq and SbP to estimate Ld over a 53‐year period (1970–2023) of continuous Q data (mean total Sb La = 1865 kg ± [SE] 247). Positive correlations between the annual Southern Oscillation Index and both Sb La (p < 0.05) and proportional SbPLa over 53 years suggests ENSO fluctuations influence annual Sb transport dynamics. Upstream SbP load estimates correspond with downstream estimates of coastal floodplain sedimentary Sb mass, with approximately 10%–45% of the estimated SbP exported downstream since approximately 1880 accumulated on the Macleay coastal floodplain. Data suggest at current rates of export, complete flushing‐leaching of mine tailings‐derived Sb from the upper Macleay catchment may take in the order approximately 600–1000 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractSevere thunderstorms cause substantial economic and human losses in the United States. Simultaneous high values of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm relative helicity (SRH) are favorable to severe weather, and both they and the composite variable PROD=CAPE×SRH can be used as indicators of severe thunderstorm activity. Their extremal spatial dependence exhibits temporal non-stationarity due to seasonality and large-scale atmospheric signals such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In order to investigate this, we introduce a space-time model based on a max-stable, Brown–Resnick, field whose range depends on ENSO and on time through a tensor product spline. We also propose a max-stability test based on empirical likelihood and the bootstrap. The marginal and dependence parameters must be estimated separately owing to the complexity of the model, and we develop a bootstrap-based model selection criterion that accounts for the marginal uncertainty when choosing the dependence model. In the case study, the out-sample performance of our model is good. We find that extremes of PROD, CAPE and SRH are generally more localized in summer and, in some regions, less localized during El Niño and La Niña events, and give meteorological interpretations of these phenomena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Acknowledging the prolonged duration of the rainy season in Northeast India (NEI) compared to Central India, the official onset of the Indian summer monsoon over NEI is traditionally marked around 5 June, with May rainfall categorized as 'pre‐monsoon'. However, our study reveals that May rainfall in NEI occurs in active/break spells driven by persistent synoptic‐scale systems, contributing to a significant monsoon heat source during this period. Through an objective analysis, we determine that the climatological 'onset' in NEI actually occurs around 18 May, with withdrawal around 14 October, resulting in an extended rainy season of approximately 150 days. The enigma of the May onset, while the Intertropical Convergence Zone remains proximate to the equator, is addressed by identifying a conducive climate in May. This climate is characterized by low‐level cyclonic vorticity over the region, influenced by the interannual strengthening (weakening) by the Atlantic Niño (El Niño). The introduction of potential vorticity from extratropical transient Rossby waves in May significantly amplifies low‐level cyclonic vorticity by 3–4 times, acting as a catalyst for the monsoon onset in NEI. Furthermore, a 5–6 times intensification of northward moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal sustains the monsoon heat source post onset. The May onset is made feasible by the uplifting of low‐level cyclonic winds, facilitated by the horseshoe‐shaped orography around the Brahmaputra valley. This process is complemented by an increased local moisture content resulting from evapotranspiration. Our findings challenge conventional notions by demonstrating that a component of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in NEI is not directly related to the Intertropical Convergence Zone. This challenges the fundamental definition of the South Asian Monsoon and calls for a reassessment of the prevalent belief that the Indian monsoon season is confined to June–September in NEI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major challenge for climate system models in simulating the impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variations of East Asian rainfall anomalies is the wide inter-model spread of outputs, which causes considerable uncertainty in physical mechanism understanding and short-term climate prediction. This study investigates the fidelity of 40 models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in representing the impacts of ENSO on South China Spring Rainfall (SCSR) during the ENSO decaying spring. The response of SCSR to ENSO, as well as the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), is quite different among the models; some models even simulate opposite SCSR anomalies compared to the observations. However, the models capturing the ENSO-related warm SSTAs over TIO tend to simulate a better SCSR-ENSO relationship, which is much closer to observation. Therefore, models are grouped based on the simulated TIO SSTAs to explore the modulating processes of the TIO SSTAs in ENSO affecting SCSR anomalies. Comparing analysis suggests that the warm TIO SSTA can force the equatorial north–south antisymmetric circulation in the lower troposphere, which is conducive to the westward extension and maintenance of the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC). In addition, the TIO SSTA enhances the upper tropospheric East Asian subtropical westerly jet, leading to anomalous divergence over South China. Thus, the westward extension and strengthening of WNPAC can transport sufficient water vapor for South China, which is associated with the ascending motion caused by the upper tropospheric divergence, leading to the abnormal SCSR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) is an important intrinsic atmospheric pattern over the North Pacific. Observations have shown that the boreal winter NPO is a crucial precursor to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with many ENSO events being preceded by the NPO. It is therefore imperative to assess the ability of current coupled climate models to reproduce the relationship between winter NPO and the subsequent winter ENSO. Previous studies have shown that most coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) underestimate the influence of winter NPO on the subsequent winter ENSO. Simulations from CMIP6, representing the latest generation of climate models, are now available. This study shows a remarkable improvement of the CMIP6 models in simulating the influence of winter NPO on the subsequent ENSO development compared to the CMIP5 models. This improvement is due to the improved air-sea interaction over the subtropical North Pacific in CMIP6. The enhanced air-sea interaction over the subtropical North Pacific promotes the equatorward propagation of the NPO-induced wind and SST anomalies, resulting in enhanced surface zonal wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific, which further exert a stronger influence on the subsequent winter ENSO development by triggering the tropical Bjerknes positive air-sea interaction. The enhanced subtropical air-sea interaction is thought to be related to a southward shift of the North Pacific intertropical convergence zone in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric variability associated with the winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), preceding El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events by about 1 year, is driven mainly by the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies but may also affect the subsequent ENSO. To isolate the latter, we conduct an idealized hindcast experiment using a climate model MIROC6, in which the NPO‐related surface heat flux and wind stress anomalies are overridden over the North Pacific. The ENSO evolution can be overall reproduced without the NPO forcing, confirming the predominant intrinsic predictability arising from the tropical coupled dynamics. However, the extratropical atmospheric forcing associated with the NPO, when it reaches three standard deviations, can enhance the ENSO development by about 29.6%, contrasting with limited effects of the moderate NPO forcing. La Niña events exhibit much less sensitivity to the NPO forcing compared to El Niño events, possibly due to asymmetric patterns of the simulated NPO. Plain Language Summary: The winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), manifesting as a meridional dipole structure in sea level pressure over the North Pacific, is suggested to play a role in the subsequent El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) development. Recent studies demonstrate that the preceding winter NPO signal mainly originates from the tropical Pacific SST forcing, making it challenging to isolate its specific impact on ENSO. In this study, we design a series of "overriding" experiments to decouple the tropical and extratropical Pacific processes based on the MIROC6 model. It is found that the ENSO evolution can be reproduced when excluding the NPO forcing, suggesting that the ENSO events is primarily driven by internal dynamics within the tropics. While the moderate NPO forcing has minor effects on the ENSO events, the exceptionally strong NPO forcing can further amplify the ENSO development. This study underscores that while NPO‐related extratropical variabilities do affect ENSO, their impact, especially under moderate conditions, should not overshadow the intrinsic predictability from the tropics. Key Points: The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) development is primarily driven by internal dynamics within tropicsThe NPO forcing of the extreme rather than moderate amplitude can significantly amplify the ENSO developmentDevelopment of El Niño events are more sensitive to the NPO forcing compared to La Niña events [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies related to monitoring changes in frequency, intensity and duration of precipitation extremes are key to creating efficient climate change measures and forest conservation policies. This study describes new insights into rainfall precipitation extremes over the Amazon basin (AB) during the last four decades (1981–2021) from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPSv2). Here we analysed the trends of daily extreme precipitation indices proposed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) at the seasonal scale, using the trend‐empirical orthogonal function (TEOF). Our results indicate that the frequency of precipitation extremes increased over Peruvian Amazonia and northeastern Brazilian Amazonia, and reduced in the centre of AB, mainly during the first seasons of the year: December–January–February (DJF) and March–April–May (MAM). The cooling trend over the eastern and central tropical Pacific and the warming trend over the tropical and western subtropical Pacific could associate with the increase in frequency of precipitation extremes in DJF. Furthermore, during June–July–August (JJA) and September–October–November (SON), rainfall intensity indices showed a decrease in Colombia and the Bolivian Amazon; in contrast, northern and southern Peru delivered an increased pattern. The trend pattern in the JJA and SON seasons could be associated with a warming trend over most of the North Atlantic and a cooling in the 40°–60° S band. Our results demonstrate that the precipitation extremes over the AB have spatially varying trends. These heterogeneous trends over the space might be take into account for robust adaptation policies over the countries that are parts of the AB, such as Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Perú, Surinam and Venezuela. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research investigates the origins of high-salinity water in the southern Bay of Bengal (SBHSW) in summer (June to August) and its interannual variabilities associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The two distinctive sources of the SBHSW, including the eastern Arabian Sea (AS) origin and the western equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) origin mentioned in the previous studies are identified. The eastern AS origin has much higher salinity (35.5 PSU vs. 35.2 PSU), shallower isopycnal layers (1023.0–1023.5 kg m-3 vs. 1024.0–1024.5 kg m-3), and intrudes into the Bay of Bengal (BOB) approximately one month later compared to the western EIO origin, while accounting for 53% of the total salinity variability compared to 47% contribution from the western EIO origin. The interannual variabilities of SBHSW are closely linked with ENSO and IOD events, with contributions of approximately 47% and 41%, respectively. During El Niño decaying years, high-salinity water export from the western EIO origin into the southern bay (< 7°N) is enhanced due to the anomalous strong spring Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) associated with El Niño; while in the north of 7°N, the SBHSW was freshened both by the increased rainfall and by the downwelling associate with the anomalous anticyclonic wind. Similar processes operate but in an opposite direction during La Niña decaying years. In contrast, IOD exerts its influence on the SBHSW primarily through modulating the strength of SMC. Positive (negative) IOD caused the anomalous freshening (salty) SBHSW by weakening (enhancing) SMC and consequently advecting less (more) saline water into the BOB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The super long La Niña phenomenon, which has an extremely long duration, like the recent 2020–2023 La Niña event, is less concerned than the super El Niño. In this study, we identify five super long La Niña events after 1950 and investigate roles of the 2–3-year quasi-biennial (QB) and 3–7-year low-frequency (LF) ocean–atmosphere coupled processes of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the interdecadal background in forming the large-scale prolonged negative sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific during these events. We group the five events into the thermocline-driven type (the 1983–1986 and 1998–2002 events) and the wind-driven type (the 1954–1957, 1973–1976, and 2020–2023 events). The former inherited a sufficiently discharged state of equatorial upper-ocean heat content from the preceding super El Niño and dominated by the thermocline feedback, leading to a LF oceanic dynamical adjustment to support the maintenance of negative ENSO SSTAs. The latter were promoted by the relatively more important zonal advective feedback and Ekman pumping feedback and deeply affected by a strongly negative equatorial zonal wind stress background state that sourced from the strong negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Besides, the QB ENSO variability with casual contributions during these events is less important. Results show that both the LF ENSO variability and the interdecadal Pacific background could assist in generating prolonged La Niñas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigating the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on subtropical Indian Ocean dipole (SIOD) facilitates understanding their combined effects on African and Australian climate. We found the correlation between ENSO in austral summer and SIOD in following autumn is enhanced after the early 1990s. Before the early 1990s, ENSO only changes the southeastern Indian Ocean (SEIO) temperature by modulating the Walker circulation. In contrast, after the early 1990s, El Niño induces positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the SEIO and negative SST anomalies in the southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO), causing the enhanced ENSO-SIOD correlation. This increasing influence of ENSO on the SWIO closely links to the ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnection in the midlatitude Southern Hemisphere (SH). Before the early 1990s, the El Niño-related teleconnection coincides with a low-pressure anomaly to the south of southern Africa. Anomalous westerlies on the northern flank of this low-pressure warm the SWIO SST by increasing the solar radiation and reducing the mixed-layer thickness but cool the SWIO SST by changing the oceanic heat advection. These opposite effects cause a weak ENSO-SWIO connection. After the early 1990s, the low-pressure related to El Niño shifts to the SWIO in January–February–March, causing anomalous local moisture divergence. The increased air–sea humidity difference enhances the latent heat release and then deepens the mixed-layer thickness, cooling the SWIO SST. The interdecadal differences in the ENSO-related SH teleconnection are probably attributed to the westward-shifted ENSO pattern and the reduced response of the Tasman Sea SST to ENSO after the early 1990s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Johnson, M.E.; Lin, T.-Y., and Su, S.-J., 2024. Comparison of coastal geology and subtropical storms impacting Taiwan and Mexico's Baja California Sur around the Tropic of Cancer in the Pacific basin. Journal of Coastal Research, 40(5), 972–993. Charlotte (North Carolina), ISSN 0749-0208. The Tropic of Cancer at 23°26′22″ arcs across the open Pacific Ocean over nearly 13,000 km between the tip of Mexico's Baja California peninsula and the island of Taiwan off mainland China's coast. Major storms that affect Taiwan's east coast and Gulf of California shores on Mexico's Baja California peninsula are tropical depressions called typhoons in Asia and hurricanes in the Americas. Taiwan is in the path of typhoons that form over the equatorial Pacific to strike east Asia annually. In 2019, Super Typhoon Lekima became the third costliest storm in east Asia, affecting not only Taiwan but also east China and the Ryukyu Islands. Late in the storm season in October 2023, Hurricane Otis became the strongest disturbance on record to strike western Mexico, with winds up to 265 km/h during a Category 5 event. Despite the enormous distance separating them, the tectonically active shores of Taiwan and the Baja California peninsula share foundational bedrock geology dominated by andesite and feature similar patterns of ongoing coastal uplift. This review covers a range of analogous aspects expressed by coastal marine geology, including fossil and modern coral reefs, fossil and modern rhodolith banks, thermal activity in the form of hot springs, and progradation of fossil and modern deltas that emerge from high-elevation drainages. The population density of the Baja California peninsula and the narrow coastal plain of eastern Taiwan is low, but people and infrastructure are affected by storms of increasing intensity under global warming. The two regions represent instructive case studies related by similar geology under comparable factors of oceanic and atmospheric circulation concentrated around the Tropic of Cancer. The two regions also show enormous potential in the development of national parks and geoparks dedicated to the promotion of geoheritage for the benefit of residents and visitors alike. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is the leading mode of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific. It dominantly varies on decadal-to-multidecadal timescales, but also fluctuates on interannual timescales. We refer to the latter variability as PDO_IAV in this study. Although it is known that PDO_IAV can be forced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), whether it can feed back to ENSO remains unclear. To address this issue and the resultant possible interaction between PDO_IAV and ENSO, we employ a North Pacific SST pacemaker experiment together with observational data and show that there exists an interaction between PDO_IAV and ENSO, but only for their negative polarity (i.e., –PDO_IAV and La Niña events). Such asymmetry is possibly attributed to winter La Niña-driven Aleutian Low (AL) anomaly, which is displaced more westward relative to that excited by El Niño. As a result, the AL-associated northerly wind anomalies are more prominent over the subtropical northeastern Pacific (SNEP) region, generating marked cold SST anomalies there, which then persist to the following fall. During summer and fall when the climatological Intertropical Convergence Zone is displaced northward, the SST anomalies induce anomalous deep convection, driving a Gill-type response over the tropical Pacific, which produces easterly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific. The easterly wind anomalies together with equatorial dynamics further influence central-eastern equatorial Pacific variability, producing a second-year La Niña. Consequently, a –PDO_IAV-La Niña positive feedback is established, which may be an alternative mechanism responsible for the multi-year La Niña phenomenon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a new, annually resolved coccolithophore relative abundance record (1889–1993 CE) from a laminated marine sediment core obtained from the northeastern Arabian Sea to document assemblage variations during the last century. Our analysis revealed that ∼80% of the assemblage is composed of the coccolithophore species Gephyrocapsa oceanica, Emiliania huxleyi, and Florisphaera profunda. Hierarchical clustering of the coccolithophore data delineates time intervals (1889–1909 CE, 1910–1959 CE, 1960–1993 CE) comparable to previously reported interdecadal changes of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–Indian monsoon variance. We find that F. profunda (Fp%) is positively correlated with central Pacific ENSO (Niño 4 and Niño 3.4). Frequency analyses of Fp% match ENSO quasiperiodicity reported from instrumental data and proxy records and support the existence of previously described ENSO–Indian monsoon teleconnections. Furthermore, the increased variance of Fp% and associated decrease in marine primary productivity starting ∼1960 CE appears to be driven by decreased upward nutrient transport linked to increased surface water stratification due to surface ocean warming. With the predicted increases in frequency and strength of central Pacific El Niño as well as surface ocean warming and upper ocean stratification in the Indian Ocean over the coming century, our results imply further impacts on coccolithophores in the northeastern Arabian Sea that may have cascading effects on the marine food web and global biogeochemical cycles. Plain Language Summary: Coccolithophores are photosynthetic marine plankton with calcium carbonate coverings and form the base of the marine food web. Therefore, documenting the response of coccolithophores to environmental variables over the instrumental period may improve understanding of how they will react to anthropogenic climate change—with important implications for the marine ecosystem. Here, we analyzed coccolithophores preserved in yearly deposited sediments from the Arabian Sea and identified potential drivers of their variations over the last century, a time period highly relevant in societal time frames. Our results show that the coccolithophore assemblage responds in relation to previously described interdecadal changes in the Indian monsoon system and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We also find a 4–5‐year cycle in the coccolithophore assemblage that matches the ENSO cycle. Atmospheric processes in India related to ENSO may have weakened the Indian monsoon winds, decreased the intensity of surface ocean water mixing and lessened the availability of nutrients. Therefore, nutrient availability is likely the main driver of the changes in the coccolithophore assemblage in our record. Predicted future warming of the oceans might result in further decrease in surface nutrients that may impact coccolithophores and the marine ecosystem. Key Points: A yearly coccolithophore assemblage record from the Arabian Sea documents changes linked to climatic variability in the last centuryChanges in the coccolithophore assemblage composition independently delineate El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian monsoon variationsDecreased land–ocean thermal gradients weakened the monsoon and increased water stratification [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Western Ghats (WG) of India are basically north-to-south oriented mountains with three distinct meteorological divisions. These mountains exhibit the characteristic features of precipitation and distribution during the summer monsoon season and possess latitudinal variations. It is a well-known fact that sea surface temperature (SST) combined with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) enacts a predominant role in the precipitation over the entire Western Ghats during the summer monsoon season. Whereas the Niño regions affect the variability of the Western Ghats' precipitation in an asymmetric relationship. Nevertheless, the simulation of precipitation has been evidenced to be difficult. The current study attempts to predict the seasonal precipitation over the coastal region and the Western Ghats of Karnataka. The relationship between summer monsoon precipitation (SMP) and SST is examined up to eight seasons by conducting the correlation analysis with three seasons that lag before the onset of the monsoon season. The significant and positively correlated lagged Niño indices with the SMP index are identified as the predictors. The selected predictors are used for predicting the SMP by using statistical models, the multiple linear regression model and the artificial neural network (ANN) model. The statistical models are based on the combined lagged indices and the principle component as the predictor. The results of the statistical models on comparison suggest that neural network models have a better predictive skill than the linear regression models. Neural network models with combined lagged indices being used as predictors are slightly better, but a few more climatic parameters must be verified and the usage of this method on other meteorological divisions of the West Coast of India needs to be further investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate why the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME) upper‐level height forecast for December–February (DJF) 2023/24 differs from the expected El Niño response. These atypical height anomalies emerged despite the fact a strong El Niño was forecast. The analysis focuses on diagnosing the NMME forecasts of DJF 2023/24 for SSTs and 200‐hPa heights initialized at the beginning of November 2023 relative to other ensemble mean NMME DJF forecasts dating back to 1982. The results demonstrate that forecasts of the 200‐hPa height anomalies had a large contribution from warming trends in global SSTs. It is the combination of trends and the expected El Niño teleconnection that results in the forecast height anomalies. Increasingly, for forecasts of geopotential height anomalies during the recent El Niño winters, the amplitude of trends is nearly equal to the signal from El Niño and has implications for the climatological base period selection for seasonal forecasts. Plain Language Summary: Seasonal forecasts are cast as anomalies as users want to know what can be expected beyond the typical seasonal swings of the climate. This necessitates a choice for the climatological base period relative to which forecast anomalies are computed. It, however, poses a challenge under rapid climate change. In this scenario, climate trends become part of the real‐time forecast anomalies, and if the climatological base period is sufficiently different, may even start to dominate. This was the case for the NMME DJF 2023/24 forecast of 200‐hPa heights which was forecast to be a strong El Niño, and yet, forecast for 200‐hPa heights differed from typical El Niño signal. The analysis implies that seasonal forecasts for some variables, consideration of trends is important and reliance on expected signal from El Niño—Southern Oscillation alone may not be sufficient. Key Points: The North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecasts for December–February (DJF) 2023/24 upper‐level height differ from the expected El Niño signalIt is the combination of trends in heights and the expected El Niño signal that results in the forecast NMME ensemble mean heights anomaliesThe forecast of trends is increasingly important to account for NMME forecast anomaly and their amplitude in recent years can be of same magnitude as the signal from El Niño [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observed El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) varies between decades with high ENSO amplitude and more extreme Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events and decades with low ENSO amplitude and mainly weak El Niño events. Based on experiments with the CESM1 model, ENSO may lock‐in into an extreme EP El Niño‐dominated state in a +3.7 K warmer climate, while in a −4.0 K cooler climate ENSO may lock‐in into a weak El Niño‐dominated state. The state shift of ENSO with global warming can be explained by the location and amplitude of the strongest warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific, which amplifies the Bjerknes feedback and allows a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone onto the equator, a prerequisite of extreme EP El Niños. In light of these results, we discuss to what extent the state of ENSO may be a tipping element in the climate system. Plain Language Summary: El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability with far‐reaching impacts. El Niños, the warm events, occur in different flavors. In particular extreme Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events are associated with heavy precipitation events and extreme droughts, thus cause large socio‐economic impacts in the Pacific region and beyond. In the observational record, they are quite rare so far. Here we present experiments of one climate model, which suggests that in a warmer climate ENSO may lock‐in in a different state, in which nearly each El Niño is an extreme EP El Niño. On the other hand in a colder climate ENSO may lock‐in in a state with nearly no extreme EP El Niños. In both climates this would have huge consequences for the socio‐economic impacts of ENSO. Against this background we raise the discussion if ENSO may be a tipping element in the climate system. Key Points: El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may be a tipping element in the climate system as its characteristics can be very different under colder or warmer mean climatesIn a warmer climate, ENSO can lock‐in into a state with high variability and nearly each El Niño is an extreme Eastern Pacific (EP) El NiñoMore extreme EP El Niño events would strongly increase the socio‐economic impacts of ENSO [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous reconstructions suggest a possible correlation between solar and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the centennial‒millennial time scales, but the mechanism remains controversial. This study conducts Holocene transient simulations and finds a significant 350‒500-year cycle of ENSO-like variability during the mid‒late Holocene under solar activity forcing, supported by multiple reconstructions. This multi-centennial ENSO-like variability is caused by the solar-forced low-latitude process, not the high-latitude process or internal variability. When solar radiation increases, the subtropical Asian continent-Indian Ocean thermal contrast is enhanced, increasing precipitation over the India and Bay of Bengal, which generates easterly anomaly over the Indo-Pacific warm pool. Increased solar radiation also enhances the evaporation in the cloud-free regions of western North and South Pacific, and the moisture is transported to the Maritime Continent by easterly. This increases precipitation there and strengthens the easterly anomaly over the equatorial western Pacific, which triggers the La Niña-like state. The leading coupling process for the development of La Niña-like state is zonal advective and upwelling feedback, and poleward heat advection further amplifies the equatorial eastern Pacific cooling. Findings from this study suggests that a centennial-scale El Niño-like condition might occur under solar forcings if the forecast predicts a solar minimum at the end of the 21st century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models are vital for understanding and projecting global climate change and its associated impacts. However, these models suffer from biases that limit their accuracy in historical simulations and the trustworthiness of future projections. Addressing these challenges requires addressing internal variability, hindering the direct alignment between model simulations and observations, and thwarting conventional supervised learning methods. Here, we employ an unsupervised Cycle-consistent Generative Adversarial Network (CycleGAN), to correct daily Sea Surface Temperature (SST) simulations from the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2). Our results reveal that the CycleGAN not only corrects climatological biases but also improves the simulation of major dynamic modes including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole mode, as well as SST extremes. Notably, it substantially corrects climatological SST biases, decreasing the globally averaged Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE) by 58%. Intriguingly, the CycleGAN effectively addresses the well-known excessive westward bias in ENSO SST anomalies, a common issue in climate models that traditional methods, like quantile mapping, struggle to rectify. Additionally, it substantially improves the simulation of SST extremes, raising the pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) from 0.56 to 0.88 and lowering the RMSE from 0.5 to 0.32. This enhancement is attributed to better representations of interannual, intraseasonal, and synoptic scales variabilities. Our study offers a novel approach to correct global SST simulations and underscores its effectiveness across different time scales and primary dynamical modes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study demonstrates asymmetric relationships between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting the Philippines during October–December. In El Niño or La Niña years, the number of TCs impacting the Philippines may increase or decrease. These variations result in four ENSO–TC variability types all of which exhibit strong sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the equatorial eastern Pacific. The major difference between the active and inactive types in terms of El Niño or La Niña years is related to the magnitude of SST anomalies in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) over the 120°–150°E region. During El Niño years, moderate cold SST anomalies in this TWP region cause an anomalous divergent centre around the 120°–130°E zone to evoke an anomalous cyclone east of the Philippines. In the western North Pacific (WNP), this anomalous cyclone causes more TCs to form and move toward the Philippines, resulting in active TC activity. For the inactive TC type during El Niño years, very weak cold SST anomalies in the aforementioned TWP region correspond with a northeastward‐extended anomalous divergent centre over the 120°–140°E, 10°S–20°N zone and an anomalous anticyclone across the Philippines and its eastern side. Decreases in the formation of the WNP TC and movement toward the Philippines lead to inactive TC activity. The large‐scale anomalies and regulating processes are mainly opposite between the active TC type during El Niño years and the inactive TC type during La Niña years. These two types are influenced by interdecadal variability of the Pacific decadal oscillation. Opposite anomalies and regulating processes also occur between the inactive TC type during El Niño years and the active TC type during La Niña years. The former type is jointly modulated by the positive Indian Ocean Dipole mode and central‐Pacific El Niño. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated relationships between year‐to‐year variability in precipitation in the rainy season in Mozambique and major modes of climate variability in the Tropics and subtropics. The Niño3.4 index was strongly negatively correlated with precipitation in Mozambique's southern and central regions. We suggest that Rossby wave propagation reaching Southern Africa from the tropical Pacific is key to the relationship between precipitation in Mozambique and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole did not lead rainy‐season precipitation, but showed a simultaneous correlation with precipitation in southern, central and northeastern regions. Benguela Niño was found to have a significant positive lead correlation by 6 months with precipitation in the southern, central and northwestern regions. In contrast, Indian Ocean Dipole led precipitation in the southern, central and northeastern regions by 3 months. Overall, the modes of climate variability exerted stronger control over precipitation variability in southern and central Mozambique, and weaker control in northern Mozambique, particularly in the northwestern region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Study regions: The Guizhou Province (GZP) in southwestern China, where mainly comprises Karst regions. Study focus: The rainfall records were collected from 45 rain gauges within GZP during 1960–2019 to calculate the Rainfall Erosivity (RE). In addition, the spatio-temporal characteristics of RE were analyzed using statistical analysis methods, and the effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on RE under different rainfall intensities was also explored for the first time. New hydrological insights for the region: The annual average RE was 4774 MJ·mm·hm−2·h−1, exhibiting a persistent increasing trend. RE demonstrated an increasing trend in most months, except for April and May, and the trend would continue in the future. The southern region of the GZP exhibited higher RE values, while the northern region displayed lower values. The spatial distribution varied across different seasons and months. On an annual scale, RE was significantly (P < 0.01) negatively correlated with elevation, indicating a decrease in erosive precipitation with increasing elevation. On a monthly scale, except for June to September, RE showed a significant (P < 0.001) negative correlation with elevation. Additionally, the study revealed a significant positive correlation (P < 0.05) with a lag time of 1 year between the total RE and RE under rainfall intensities exceeding 40 mm/day and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). This finding provides a possibility for predicting high-intensity RE with one year ahead.

Understanding the lagged correlations between regional precipitation and large scale climate indicators (LCI) is crucial for water management and drought risk assessment. Copula functions are commonly used to quantify the relationship between precipitation and these factors. However, existing studies often neglect monsoon inland areas and lack quantification of the lagged correlations of precipitation at the monthly scale. To address these limitations, this study constructed a 3-dimensional vine copula-based model to assess the impact of large scale climatic change on regional precipitation. The analysis focused on the Hengshao Drought Corridor (HDC), the driest region in Hunan Province, China. The results indicate that precipitation in this region is influenced primarily by the Pacific Ocean’s circulation pattern, particularly the Niño1 + 2 and Niño3 indices, with a 2 ∼ 3 month lag. The R-Vine Copula provided the best fit when identifying lagged correlations, but due to its fitting center, it did not perform as well as the C-Vine Copula in generating stochastic simulated precipitation. The study revealed that the HDC receives more precipitation when the Niño1 + 2 and Niño3 are asynchronous, but less precipitation when they are synchronous, making the area more susceptible to drought events. These findings have implications for the HDC and other monsoon inland regions worldwide, providing insights to cope with climate extremes and develop appropriate strategies.

Terrestrial ecosystems have taken up about 32% of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the past six decades1. Large uncertainties in terrestrial carbon-climate feedbacks, however, make it difficult to predict how the land carbon sink will respond to future climate change2. Interannual variations in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) are dominated by land-atmosphere carbon fluxes in the tropics, providing an opportunity to explore land carbon-climate interactions3-6. It is thought that variations in CGR are largely controlled by temperature7-10 but there is also evidence for a tight coupling between water availability and CGR11. Here, we use a record of global atmospheric CO2, terrestrial water storage and precipitation data to investigate changes in the interannual relationship between tropical land climate conditions and CGR under a changing climate. We find that the interannual relationship between tropical water availability and CGR became increasingly negative during 1989-2018 compared to 1960-1989. This could be related to spatiotemporal changes in tropical water availability anomalies driven by shifts in El Niño/Southern Oscillation teleconnections, including declining spatial compensatory water effects9. We also demonstrate that most state-of-the-art coupled Earth System and Land Surface models do not reproduce the intensifying water-carbon coupling. Our results indicate that tropical water availability is increasingly controlling the interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle and modulating tropical terrestrial carbon-climate feedbacks.

Salinity can influence microbial communities and related functional groups in lacustrine sediments, but few studies have examined temporal variability in salinity and associated changes in lacustrine microbial communities and functional groups. To better understand how microbial communities and functional groups respond to salinity, we examined geochemistry and functional gene amplicon sequence data collected from 13 lakes located in Kiritimati, Republic of Kiribati (2° N, 157° W) in July 2014 and June 2019, dates which bracket the very large El Niño event of 2015-2016 and a period of extremely high precipitation rates. Lake water salinity values in 2019 were significantly reduced and covaried with ecological distances between microbial samples. Specifically, phylum- and family-level results indicate that more halophilic microorganisms occurred in 2014 samples, whereas more mesohaline, marine, or halotolerant microorganisms were detected in 2019 samples. Functional Annotation of Prokaryotic Taxa (FAPROTAX) and functional gene results (nifH, nrfA, aprA) suggest that salinity influences the relative abundance of key functional groups (chemoheterotrophs, phototrophs, nitrogen fixers, denitrifiers, sulfate reducers), as well as the microbial diversity within functional groups. Accordingly, we conclude that microbial community and functional gene groups in the lacustrine sediments of Kiritimati show dynamic changes and adaptations to the fluctuations in salinity driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

The dependence of ozone content in the polar stratosphere upon different phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the zonal wind and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during winter was studied. The monthly (from November to January) mean residual meridional circulation (RMC) was calculated for four different combinations of the main phases of ENSO and QBO using MERRA2 reanalysis data. It has been demonstrated that the QBO phase manifests itself in different vertical distributions of ozone in the equatorial stratosphere, as well as in strengthening/weakening of the secondary meridional circulation in the tropics. The enhancement of the RMC from the tropical to the polar stratosphere is stronger at altitudes where ozone is higher in the tropics under El Niño conditions. The RMC modification and intensification are observed from ozone-depleted areas under La Niña conditions. A "cumulative" effect is observed by February under La Niña conditions and the easterly QBO, which is expressed in the lowest ozone content in the polar stratosphere. The numerical experiments carried out using the Middle and Upper Atmosphere Model (MUAM) confirmed tendencies in changes in the meridional transport detected from the reanalysis data for different combinations of QBO and ENSO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how models represent sub-seasonal rainfall variations and what influences model skill is essential for improving sub-seasonal forecasts and their applications. Here, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is employed to investigate weekly Eastern Africa short rains variability from October to December. The observed leading EOF modes are identified as (i) a monopole-like rainfall pattern with anomalies impacting southern Ethiopia, Kenya, and northern Tanzania; and (ii) a dipole-like rainfall pattern with contrasting anomalies between Tanzania and the northeastern sector of Eastern Africa. An examination of the links between the leading modes and specific climate drivers, namely, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), shows that the MJO and IOD have the highest correlations with the two rainfall modes and indicates that the monopole (dipole)-like rainfall pattern is associated with MJO convective anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific (Maritime Continent and Western Hemisphere). Assessments of model ability to capture and predict the leading modes show that the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models outperform the National Centers for Environmental Prediction model at forecast horizons from one to four weeks ahead. Amongst the drivers examined, the MJO has the largest impact on the forecast skill of rainfall modes within the ECMWF model. If MJO-related variability is reliably represented, the ECMWF model is more skilful at predicting the main modes of weekly rainfall variability over the region. Our findings can support model developments and enhance anticipatory planning efforts in several sectors, such as agriculture, food security, and energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) has a profound climatic influence. The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly impacts the North Pacific SST; however, the influence of the distinct phases of ENSO on SST predictability remains unclear. To overcome the model limitations, this study assessed SST predictability under diverse ENSO phases using reanalysis. The predictability limit of the North Pacific SST under La Niña (8.4 months) is longer than that under Neutral (5.9 months) and El Niño (5.5 months) conditions, which unveils asymmetry. This asymmetry mirrors contemporary multimodal prediction skills. Error growth dynamics reveal La Niña's robust signal strength with a slow error growth rate, in contrast to El Niño's weaker signal and faster error growth. There exhibits intermediate signal strength and elevated error growth in Neutral condition. Physically, predictability signal strength aligns with SST variability, whereas the error growth rate correlates with atmospheric‐ocean heating anomalies. La Niña, which induces positive heating anomalies, minimizes the impact of atmospheric noise, resulting in lower error growth. The result is beneficial for improving North Pacific SST predictions. Plain Language Summary: The North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) significantly impacts global climate, particularly in East Asia and the United States. Accurate prediction of North Pacific SST, which is crucial for seasonal and interannual forecasting, remains a focal point in atmospheric and oceanic research. This study investigates how the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences SST predictability in the North Pacific during different phases (El Niño, La Niña, Neutral). Using reanalysis data, this research introduces the concept of predictability limit (PL), revealing an asymmetry in the PL response: La Niña extends the PL to 8.4 months, El Niño shortens it to 5.5 months, and Neutral falls in 5.9 months. This asymmetry aligns with the existing prediction skills. Examining the error growth dynamics, La Niña exhibits a robust SST signal with slower error growth, whereas El Niño displays a weaker signal with faster error growth. Neutral, meanwhile, shows a high signal strength but large error growth. This study sheds light on these differences in SST predictability and provides valuable insights for refining North Pacific SST predictions through model advancements. Key Points: El Niño‐Southern Oscillation phases asymmetrically impact North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) predictability: El Niño (5.5 months), La Niña (8.4 months), Neutral (5.9 months)Error growth dynamics vary: La Niña displays strong signals with slow growth, El Niño exhibits weak signals and rapid growthA positive heating anomaly from La Niña reduces atmospheric noise impact, resulting in a smaller error growth rate of the North Pacific SST [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent observations suggest that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts basal melting of West Antarctic ice shelves, yet sparse ocean observations limit our understanding of the associated processes. Here we investigate how ENSO events modulate subsurface West Antarctic shelf temperatures using high‐resolution global ocean‐sea ice model simulations. During El Niño, the subsurface shelf warming between 150 m and the shelf bottom can be up to 0.5°C in front of ice shelves. This warming arises from a weaker Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) and weaker coastal easterlies that reduce on‐shelf Ekman transport of cold surface waters, enabling enhanced transport of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) onto the shelf. A largely opposite response occurs during La Niña, with a stronger ASL and stronger Ekman transport that results in less cross‐shelf CDW transport and cooling in the subsurface. These findings have implications for interpreting basal melting on interannual to decadal time‐scales in West Antarctica. Plain Language Summary: El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's dominant year‐to‐year climate variation. The impacts of its two phases, El Niño and La Niña, extend from the tropics to Antarctica through atmospheric waves. Past studies have suggested that West Antarctic ice shelves melt more during El Niño because of warmer ocean waters at the ice shelf bases. However, oceanic changes during El Niño lead to warming on the shelf near the ice which is difficult to isolate. That is because ENSO is only one of many drivers that impact shelf water temperatures. In this work, we simulate isolated ENSO events using an ocean circulation model. We show that during El Niño, the on‐shelf flow of cold surface waters in West Antarctica, driven by coastal easterly winds, is reduced because the winds weaken. To balance out this mass deficit at the surface, more warm CDW flows onto the continental shelf below. During La Niña, we see a largely opposite response. Stronger coastal easterlies increase the on‐shelf flow of cold surface waters and less CDW is flowing onto the shelf. Our results show the link between ENSO and mass loss of the West Antarctic ice shelves and ice sheet. Key Points: Ocean‐sea ice model simulations of El Niño and La Niña events illustrate how they modulate West Antarctic shelf temperaturesEl Niño weakens coastal easterlies, reduces on‐shelf Ekman flow of cold waters, increasing cross‐shelf flow of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW)The La Niña shelf circulation response is largely opposite and reduces cross‐shelf transport of warm CDW [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The results of a piControl experiment investigating general circulation models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) were examined. The global interannual variability in the monthly surface temperature (ST) and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies was considered. The amplitudes of the fluctuations in the anomalies of these meteorological fields between opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were calculated. It was shown that most CMIP6 models reproduced fluctuations in the ST and SLP anomalies between El Niño and La Niña not only in the equatorial Pacific, but also throughout the tropics, as well as in the middle and high latitudes. Some of the CMIP6 models reproduced the global structures of the ST and SLP anomaly oscillations quite accurately between opposite phases of ENSO, as previously determined from observational data and reanalyses. It was found that the models AS-RCEC TaiESM1, CAMS CAMS-CSM1-0, CAS FGOALS-f3-L, CMCC CMCC-ESM2, KIOST KIOST-ESM, NASA GISS-E2-1-G, NCAR CESM2-WACCM-FV2, and NCC NorCPM1 reproduced strong ENSO teleconnections in regions beyond the tropical Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

(1) Background: Global climate change is expected to significantly alter growing conditions along mountain gradients. Landscape ecological patterns are likely to shift significantly as species attempt to adapt to these changes. We evaluated the extent to which spatial (elevation and canopy cover) and temporal (decadal trend and El Niño–Southern Oscillation/Pacific Decadal Oscillation) factors impact seasonal snowmelt and forest community dynamics in the Western Hemlock–True Fir ecotone region of the Oregon Western Cascades, USA. (2) Methods: Tsuga heterophylla and Abies amabilis seedling locations were mapped three times over 20 years (2002–2022) on five sample transects strategically placed to cross the ecotone. Additionally, daily ground temperature readings were collected over 10 years for the five transects using 123 data loggers to estimate below-canopy snow metrics. (3) Results: Based on validation using time-lapse cameras, the data loggers proved highly reliable for estimating snow cover. The method reported fewer days of snow cover as compared to meteorological station-based snow products for the region, emphasizing the importance of direct under-canopy field observations of snow. Snow season variability was most significantly impacted temporally by cyclical ENSO/PDO climate patterns and spatially by differences in canopy cover within the ecotone. The associated seedling analysis identified clear sorting of species by elevation within the ecotone but reflected a lack of a long-term trend, as species dominance in the seedling strata did not significantly shift along the elevation gradient over the 20-year study. (4) Conclusions: The data logger-based approach provided estimates of snow cover at ecologically significant locations and fine enough spatial resolutions to allow for the study of forest regeneration dynamics. The results highlight the importance of long-term, understory snow measurements and the influence of climatic oscillations in understanding the vulnerability of mountain areas to the changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract We investigate why the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME) upper‐level height forecast for December–February (DJF) 2023/24 differs from the expected El Niño response. These atypical height anomalies emerged despite the fact a strong El Niño was forecast. The analysis focuses on diagnosing the NMME forecasts of DJF 2023/24 for SSTs and 200‐hPa heights initialized at the beginning of November 2023 relative to other ensemble mean NMME DJF forecasts dating back to 1982. The results demonstrate that forecasts of the 200‐hPa height anomalies had a large contribution from warming trends in global SSTs. It is the combination of trends and the expected El Niño teleconnection that results in the forecast height anomalies. Increasingly, for forecasts of geopotential height anomalies during the recent El Niño winters, the amplitude of trends is nearly equal to the signal from El Niño and has implications for the climatological base period selection for seasonal forecasts.

Abstract Observed El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) varies between decades with high ENSO amplitude and more extreme Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events and decades with low ENSO amplitude and mainly weak El Niño events. Based on experiments with the CESM1 model, ENSO may lock‐in into an extreme EP El Niño‐dominated state in a +3.7 K warmer climate, while in a −4.0 K cooler climate ENSO may lock‐in into a weak El Niño‐dominated state. The state shift of ENSO with global warming can be explained by the location and amplitude of the strongest warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific, which amplifies the Bjerknes feedback and allows a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone onto the equator, a prerequisite of extreme EP El Niños. In light of these results, we discuss to what extent the state of ENSO may be a tipping element in the climate system.

A major challenge for climate system models in simulating the impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variations of East Asian rainfall anomalies is the wide inter-model spread of outputs, which causes considerable uncertainty in physical mechanism understanding and short-term climate prediction. This study investigates the fidelity of 40 models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in representing the impacts of ENSO on South China Spring Rainfall (SCSR) during the ENSO decaying spring. The response of SCSR to ENSO, as well as the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), is quite different among the models; some models even simulate opposite SCSR anomalies compared to the observations. However, the models capturing the ENSO-related warm SSTAs over TIO tend to simulate a better SCSR-ENSO relationship, which is much closer to observation. Therefore, models are grouped based on the simulated TIO SSTAs to explore the modulating processes of the TIO SSTAs in ENSO affecting SCSR anomalies. Comparing analysis suggests that the warm TIO SSTA can force the equatorial north–south antisymmetric circulation in the lower troposphere, which is conducive to the westward extension and maintenance of the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC). In addition, the TIO SSTA enhances the upper tropospheric East Asian subtropical westerly jet, leading to anomalous divergence over South China. Thus, the westward extension and strengthening of WNPAC can transport sufficient water vapor for South China, which is associated with the ascending motion caused by the upper tropospheric divergence, leading to the abnormal SCSR.

Arctic sea ice has decreased substantially and is projected to reach a seasonally ice-free state in the coming decades. Little is known about whether dwindling Arctic sea ice is capable of influencing the occurrence of strong El Niño, a prominent mode of climate variability with global impacts. Based on time slice coupled model experiments, here we show that no significant change in the occurrence of strong El Niño is found in response to moderate Arctic sea-ice loss that is consistent with satellite observations to date. However, as the ice loss continues and the Arctic becomes seasonally ice-free, the frequency of strong El Niño events increases by more than one third, as defined by gradient-based indices that remove mean tropical Pacific warming induced by the seasonally ice-free Arctic. By comparing our time slice experiments with greenhouse warming experiments, we conclude that at least 37-48% of the increase of strong El Niño near the end of the 21st century is associated specifically with Arctic sea-ice loss. Further separation of Arctic sea-ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing only experiments implies that the seasonally ice-free Arctic might play a key role in driving significantly more frequent strong El Niño events.

Enterovirus infection and enterovirus infection with severe complications (EVSC) are critical issues in several aspects. However, there is no suitable predictive tool for these infections. A climate factor complex (CFC) containing several climate factors could provide more effective predictions. The ping-year factor (PYF) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are possible CFCs. This study aimed to determine the relationship between these two CFCs and the incidence of enterovirus infection. Children aged 15 years and younger with enterovirus infection and/or EVSC were enrolled between 2007 and 2022. Each year was categorized into a ping-year or non-ping-year according to the PYF. Poisson regression was used to evaluate the associations between the PYF, ENSO, and the incidence of enterovirus infection. Compared to the ping-year group, the incidence rate of enterovirus infection, the incidence rate of EVSC, and the ratio of EVSC in the non-ping-year group were 1.24, 3.38, and 2.73 times higher, respectively (p < 0.001). For every one-unit increase in La Niña, the incidence rate of enterovirus infection decreased to 0.96 times (p < 0.001). Our study indicated that CFCs could be potential predictors for enterovirus infection, and the PYF was more suitable than ENSO. Further research is needed to improve the predictive model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Featured Application: Various studies have reported a teleconnection between the El Niño phenomenon in the southern Pacific Ocean and the North-Atlantic Oscillation, which governs the weather in the eastern side of the American continent and most parts of Europe, including the Mediterranean. Though such a relationship has been established to a large degree, it is still unknown whether the El Niño phenomenon can affect atmospheric processes in the mentioned regions. Therefore, the present study investigates the existence of any effect of El Niño on atmospheric radiation and atmospheric aerosols over the Mediterranean region. The Mediterranean area is considered a hot spot on our planet because it represents the crossroads of various aerosols. Several studies have shown that the weather in the region is affected by the North-Atlantic Oscillation, which, in turn, is well connected with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Nevertheless, no study has investigated the ENSO effect on the solar radiation and atmospheric aerosols in this region. The present study considers a greater area around the Mediterranean Sea over the period 1980–2022. The results show that there exists a loose but significant dependence, in some cases, of the optical properties of aerosols (aerosol optical depth, Ångström exponent, cloud optical depth) and solar radiation (net short-wave and net long-wave radiation, direct aerosol radiative forcing) on ENSO events. The results of this study provide motivation for further investigations, since such results can increase the accuracy of general circulation models that deal with climate change. Besides the ENSO effect, the enrichment of the Mediterranean atmosphere in suspended particles from great volcanic eruptions is shown. The inter-annual variation of the examined parameters is presented. A classification of the existing aerosols over the area is also provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate of the Pacific Ocean varies on interannual, decadal, and longer timescales. This variability is dominated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), both of which have profound impacts on countries within and well beyond the Pacific. To date, previous studies have only examined a small subset of the possible links between ENSO, its diversity, and the IPO. Here we focus on the statistical relationship between decadal variability in ENSO properties and the IPO, testing the null hypothesis that the IPO arises from random decadal changes in ENSO activity, including ENSO diversity. We use observed sea surface temperature (SST) records since 1920 to investigate how the timing, structure, frequency, duration, and magnitude of El Niño and La Niña events differ between IPO phases. We find that using the relative frequency of El Niño and La Niña events and either the mean event duration or SST magnitude can reproduce up to 60% of the IPO Tripole Index timeseries. While the spatial SST patterns that represent the IPO and ENSO are similar, the IPO is meridionally broader in the central to eastern Pacific, which may be caused by a lagged relationship with low-frequency SST variability in the equatorial Pacific. In addition, North Pacific SST anomalies of opposite sign to the tropical Pacific SST anomalies is a unique feature of the IPO that cannot be explained by decadal ENSO variability. This suggests a clear IPO and ENSO relationship, but also independence in some of the IPO's characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The formation mechanisms of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) have been studied extensively. However, few studies have considered the influence of the South Pacific atmosphere and sea surface temperature (SST) variability on IOD formation. In this study, reanalysis data, CMIP6 model outputs, and linear baroclinic model experiments were used to investigate this influence. The results revealed a close connection between the preceding boreal winter–spring Southwest Pacific Dipole (SWPD) SST anomaly (SSTA) pattern and the subsequent IOD and associated physical mechanisms. Facilitated by the local air–sea positive feedback, the positive SWPD, coupled with low-level cyclonic circulations, persists from the preceding winter to early summer. During early summer, the below-normal precipitation and diabatic heating associated with the SWPD western pole cooling strengthens and induces an anticyclonic circulation on its western side as the climatological southeasterly winds encroach northward. This anticyclonic circulation extends from southern Australia into the tropical southeastern Indian Ocean, favoring enhanced southeasterly winds and cooling off Java-Sumatra. Subsequently, the IOD develops in summer–autumn with the aid of wind–evaporation–SST and wind–thermocline–SST positive feedback. The westward downwelling Rossby wave and eastward upwelling Kelvin wave associated with surface wind anomalies also contribute to the IOD western pole warming and eastern pole cooling, respectively. Furthermore, the IOD interacts with El Niño through Walker circulation and increases its amplitude. These findings are supported by the results obtained from the linear baroclinic model and CMIP6 historical simulations and can potentially improve the predictability of the IOD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmosphere clearness is the single most essential parameter determining surface solar radiation. However, few studies have investigated the interannual variations in China's atmosphere clearness and the impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on it. This study aims to fill the knowledge gap by calculating the clearness index using the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset version 1.7 and then analyzing the correlations between the interannual anomaly and the Niño-3.4 index. The results show that there is a significantly negative correlation in the southeastern coastal regions, northern Xinjiang, northeastern Xizang, and areas from northern Hebei to middle Inner Mongolia. In these areas, the higher the ENSO index, the lower the clearness index, and, coincidingly, positive precipitation anomalies are reported in previous studies. The impacts of El Niño and La Niña vary with seasons. The ENSO events have generally opposite impacts in the seasons other than summer. El Niño tends to decrease the clearness index, while La Niña tends to decrease the atmosphere clearness in most territories of China. The impacts are different in the places of statistical significance. The negative impacts of El Niño are significant in the southeastern coastal regions of China in winter and in northeast China in autumn. The positive impacts of La Niña are significant in the southwestern and northeastern China in the autumn. In these seasons, ENSO's impacts scale with the strength of the event. Stronger events amplify the magnitude of the anomalies, while the spatial patterns of the anomalies are kept almost invariant. In summer, ENSO's impacts exhibit different characteristics than in the other seasons and between the El Niño and La Niña events. For the El Niño events, the impacts are insignificant in most territories of China, even for the strong ones. La Niña has a larger influence on the summertime clearness than El Niña, and the spatial pattern of the La Niña's impacts varies with the event strength. The anomalies during strong La Niña events have a tripolar pattern with a positive anomaly in south and north China and a negative anomaly in between. The pattern suggests that the relationship between the clearness index and precipitation is different during strong La Niña events. These findings would provide valuable insights into the interannual variations of atmosphere clearness in China and could be clues to further investigation. The revealed impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation should be important for developing solar energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advanced numerical climate models are known to exhibit biases in simulating some features of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is a key mode of interannual climate variability. In this study we analyze how two fundamental features of observed ENSO – asymmetry between hot and cold states and phase-locking to the annual cycle – are reflected in two different versions of the INMCM Earth system model (state-of-the-art Earth system model participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). We identify the above ENSO features using the conventional empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analysis, which is applied to both observed and simulated upper ocean heat content (OHC) data in the tropical Pacific. We obtain that the observed tropical Pacific OHC variability is described well by two leading EOF-modes, which roughly reflect the fundamental recharge-discharge mechanism of ENSO. These modes exhibit strong seasonal cycles associated with ENSO phase locking while the revealed nonlinear dependencies between amplitudes of these cycles reflect ENSO asymmetry.We also assess and compare the predictability of observed and simulated ENSO based on linear inverse modelling. We find that the improved INMCM6 model has significant benefits in simulating described features of observed ENSO as compared with the previous INMCM5 model. The improvements of the INMCM6 model providing such benefits are discussed. We argue that proper cloud parameterization scheme is crucial for accurate simulation of ENSO dynamics with numerical climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The low-lying and densely populated Southeast Asia (SEA) region is threatened by sea-level change. To better understand the mechanism of sea-level change in this region, the sea-level trends and variability in the SEA region are investigated over the historical period 1950–2014 and during 2015–2099 under Shared Socio-economic Pathway5-8.5 scenario forcing, based on the output of the high-resolution (~ 0.1° for ocean) global climate model MPI-ESM-ER. The results confirm that the SEA sterodynamic sea level and its components (i.e., thermosteric, halosteric, and manometric sea level) are rising with accelerations, which are superimposed on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) driven variabilities. To understand changes of thermosteric and halosteric sea level, regional-mean ocean heat and freshwater contents are analysed based on physical processes of ocean transports and air-sea fluxes. We show that ENSO variability impacts the thermosteric sea level mainly through lateral ocean heat transports, while it impacts the halosteric sea level mainly through surface freshwater flux. In the projection, a decreased volume transport of the relatively cold water (with respect to the SEA average) from the Pacific warms the SEA region. At the same time, a freshening of the transported saline water (with respect to the SEA average) results in an increased ocean freshwater transport into the SEA region. Locally, the pathway of volume transport from the Pacific to the SEA region is shifting northward, which results in a weakened Indonesian throughflow and an enhanced South China Sea throughflow, both leading to changes of regional sea-level pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The upper-level jet stream is a critical element of atmospheric circulation, driving synoptic systems and extreme weather events. This study analyzes the impact of upper-level jets on South American (SA) summer temperature and precipitation under different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases. Using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset from 1979 to 2022, we perform a daily multiparametric characterization of the jet stream, considering its spatial and temporal discontinuities. Besides latitude and intensity, we find that the departure and number of branches of the subtropical jet (STJ) and the longitudinal extent of the Pacific branch of the polar front jet (PFJ) are needed for their description. An additional parameter is required to characterize the STJ due to its absence on around 40% of summer days over SA. Moreover, we observe distinct long-term changes in PFJ parameters across different ocean basins. Three synoptic weather types (WTs) of the upper-level zonal wind are identified: normal conditions, a prominent STJ pattern, and a PFJ-only pattern. The latter pattern is associated with anticyclonic anomalies at 500 hPa in the South Atlantic Ocean and an active SA Convergence Zone, which favors clear skies and warm (wet and cold) conditions in southern SA (Brazil). Consistently, the probability of experiencing warm spells in central Argentina is increased more than twofold. Finally, we detect that the temperature anomalies associated with the WTs are independent of the ENSO phase. However, ENSO modulates the frequency of the WTs: during La Niña (El Niño), the PFJ-only (prominent STJ) pattern is more common. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term temperature variations inferred from high-resolution proxies provide an important context to evaluate the intensity of current warming. However, temperature reconstructions in humid southeastern China are scarce and particularly lack long-term data, limiting us to obtain a complete picture of regional temperature evolution. In this study, we present a well-verified reconstruction of winter-spring (January–April) minimum temperatures over southeastern China based on stable carbon isotopic (δ13C) records of tree rings from Taxus wallichiana var. mairei from 1860 to 2014. This reconstruction accounted for 56.4% of the total observed variance. Cold periods occurred during the 1860s–1910s and 1960s–1970s. Although temperatures have had an upward trend since the 1920s, most of the cold extremes were in recent decades. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variance acted as a key modulator of regional winter-spring minimum temperature variability. However, teleconnections between them were a nonlinear process, i.e., a reduced or enhanced ENSO variance may result in a weakened or intensified temperature-ENSO relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Kuroshio intrusion (KI) is a northwestward‐flowing branch of the Kuroshio Current, which enters the South China Sea (SCS) and regulates its temperature, salinity, and water mass exchanges. However, limited direct observations hinder our understanding of KI's mechanisms and responses to climate change. Here, we present a 60‐year bi‐monthly resolved coral oxygen isotope (δ18Oc) record from Dongsha Atoll, the northern SCS. The dry‐season (December–March) δ18Oc record reveals interannual to decadal variabilities of the KI. The impact of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) on Dongsha δ18Oc was more pronounced during the 1970s and 1980s and after the early 2000s, while the influence of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Dongsha δ18Oc was higher between the 1980s and 1990s. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) may have a relatively minor effect on KI strength or may indirectly modulate KI strength through its influence on ENSO activities. Our Dongsha δ18Oc record highlight the importance of the EAWM, ENSO, and PDO in predicting future KI changes. Plain Language Summary: The Kuroshio intrusion is a branch of the Kuroshio Current. It flows into the South China Sea and affects its temperature, salinity, and water movement. We however know very little how the Kuroshio intrusion responds to climate changes. Here we present a study on the chemical composition of a coral core from Dongsha Atoll in the northern South China Sea. Our study shows that the intrusion varies markedly over the past 60 years and is connected to changes in sea surface salinity. Stronger intrusions align with stronger East Asian winter monsoon intensity and El Niño events. Understanding how the Kuroshio intrusion reacts to climate change is important for effectively managing the potential impacts of global warming on the marine ecosystem. Key Points: A 60‐year‐long coral oxygen isotope record from Dongsha Atoll, South China Sea reveals interannual to decadal variations in the Kuroshio intrusionStrong Kuroshio intrusion, corresponding to high sea surface salinity, is identifiable over the past 60 yearsThe Kuroshio intrusion variations are primarily driven by East Asian winter monsoon changes and also influenced by El Niño‐Southern Oscillation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The heat budget of the equatorial Pacific mixed layer during El Niño formation was studied based on reanalysis (GLORYS2V4) and model data for the modern climate. The focus of the study is on the so-called El Niño diversity, i.e., the existence of different types of events that are characterized by different locations and intensities, as well as significantly different teleconnection all around the world. The analysis of the processes that participate in the formation of different El Niño types may serve for a better understanding of the El Niño dynamic and contribute to improving its forecast. Two classifications, based on the location and intensity of the events, were considered: strong/moderate and Eastern Pacific (EP)/Central Pacific (CP). The analysis did not reveal a significant difference in the heat budget of the mixed layer between strong and EP El Niño events, as well as between moderate and CP events. The major difference in the generation mechanism of strong (EP) and moderate (CP) El Niño events consists of the magnitude of heating produced by ocean heat budget components with higher heating rates for strong (EP) events. The evolution of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) is governed primarily by oceanic advection. The vertical advection (due to the thermocline feedback) is the main contributor to SSTA growth in the eastern Pacific regardless of El Niño's type. In the Central Pacific, horizontal advection is more important than vertical one, with a stronger impact of meridional processes for both strong and moderate regimes. Furthermore, the evaluation of the CMIP5 model's skill in the simulation of the processes responsible for the formation of different El Niño types was carried out. The analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer in the CMIP5 ensemble demonstrated that the most successful models are CCSM4, CESM1-BGC, CMCC-CMS, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M, and IPSL-CM5B-LR. They are capable of reproducing the most important contribution of the advection terms in the SSTA tendency, keeping the major role of the thermocline feedback (and vertical advection) in the eastern Pacific, and do not overestimate the contribution of zonal advective feedback. These models are recommended to be used for the analysis of El Niño mechanism modification in the future climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]