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Abstract End of century projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models show a decrease in precipitation over subtropical oceans that often extends into surrounding land areas, but with substantial intermodel spread. Changes in precipitation are controlled by both thermodynamical and dynamical processes, though the importance of these processes for regional scales and for intermodel spread is not well understood. The contribution of dynamic and thermodynamic processes to the model spread in regional precipitation minus evaporation (P − E) is computed for 48 CMIP models. The intermodel spread is dominated essentially everywhere by the change of the dynamic term, including in most regions where thermodynamic changes drive the multi‐model mean response. The dominant role of dynamic changes is insensitive to zonal averaging which removes any influence of stationary wave changes, and is also evident in subtropical oceanic regions. Relatedly, intermodel spread in P − E is generally unrelated to climate sensitivity.

Abstract Heavy precipitation events (HPEs) can lead to deadly and costly natural disasters and are critical to the hydrological budget in regions where rainfall variability is high and water resources depend on individual storms. Thus, reliable projections of such events in the future are needed. To provide high‐resolution projections under the RCP8.5 scenario for HPEs at the end of the 21st century, and to understand the changes in sub‐hourly to daily rainfall patterns, weather research and forecasting (WRF) model simulations of 41 historic HPEs in the eastern Mediterranean are compared with “pseudo global warming” simulations of the same events. This paper presents the changes in rainfall patterns in future storms, decomposed into storms' mean conditional rain rate, duration, and area. A major decrease in rainfall accumulation (−30% averaged across events) is found throughout future HPEs. This decrease results from a substantial reduction of the rain area of storms (−40%) and occurs despite an increase in the mean conditional rain intensity (+15%). The duration of the HPEs decreases (−9%) in future simulations. Regionally maximal 10‐min rain rates increase (+22%), whereas over most of the region, long‐duration rain rates decrease. The consistency of results across events, driven by varying synoptic conditions, suggests that these changes have low sensitivity to the specific synoptic evolution during the events. Future HPEs in the eastern Mediterranean will therefore likely be drier and more spatiotemporally concentrated, with substantial implications on hydrological outcomes of storms.

Weather radar data contain detailed information about the spatial structures of rain fields previously unavailable from conventional rain gauge networks. This information is of major importance for enhancing our understanding of precipitation and hydrometeorological systems. This study focuses on spatial features of convective rain cells in southern Israel where the climate ranges from Mediterranean to hyper-arid. Extensive data bases from two study areas covered by radar systems were analyzed. Rain cell features were extracted such as center location, area, maximal rain intensity, spatial integral of rain intensity, major radius length, minor radius length, ellipticity, and orientation. Rain cells in the two study areas were compared in terms of feature distributions and the functional relationships between cell area and cell magnitude, represented by maximal rain intensity and spatial integral of rain intensity. Analytical distribution functions were fitted to the empirical distributions and the log-normal function was found to fit well the distributions of cell area, maximal rain intensity and major and minor radius lengths. The normal distribution fits well ellipticity empirical distribution, and orientation distribution was well-represented by the normal or uniform distribution functions. The effect of distance from the Mediterranean coastline on cell features was assessed. A maximum of cell rain intensity at the coastline and maximum cell density 15 km inland from the coastline were found. In addition, a gradual change of cell orientation was observed with a northwest-southeast orientation 30 km from the coastline at the Mediterranean Sea and to almost a west-east orientation 30 km from the coastline inland.

Accurately quantifying air-sea heat and gas exchange is crucial for comprehending thermoregulation processes and modeling ocean dynamics; these models incorporate bulk formulae for air-sea exchange derived in unstable atmospheric conditions. Therefore, their applicability in stable atmospheric conditions, such as desert-enclosed basins in the Gulf of Eilat/Aqaba (coral refugium), Red Sea, and Persian Gulf, is unclear. We present 2-year Eddy Covariance results from the Gulf of Eilat, a natural laboratory for studying air-sea interactions in stable atmospheric conditions which are directly related to ocean dynamics. The measured mean evaporation, 3.22 m year-1, approximately double than previously estimated by bulk formulae, is exceeding the heat flux provided by radiation. Notably, in arid environments wind speed seasonal trend is compelling maximum evaporation in summer, with minimum winter rate. The higher evaporation rate appears when elevated wind, particularly in the afternoon, coincide with an increase in vapor pressure difference. The bulk formulae approach inability to capture the seasonal (opposite from our measurements) and annual trend of evaporation is linked to errors in quantifying of the atmospheric boundary layer stability parameter. Most of the year, there is a net cooling effect of surface water (-79 W m-2), primarily through evaporation. The substantial heat deficit is compensated by the advection of heat via northbound currents from the Red Sea, which we indirectly quantify from energy balance considerations. Cold and dry synoptic-scale winds induce extreme heat loss through air-sea fluxes, and are correlated with destabilizing of the water column during winter and initiating vertical water column mixing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A reliable prediction of hydrologic models, among other things, requires a set of plausible parameters that correspond with physiographic properties of the basin. This study proposes a parameter estimation approach, which is based on extracting, through hydrograph diagnoses, information in the form of indices that carry intrinsic properties of a basin. This concept is demonstrated by introducing two indices that describe the shape of a streamflow hydrograph in an integrated manner. Nineteen mid-size (2234790 km2) perennial headwater basins with a long record of streamflow data were selected to evaluate the ability of these indices to capture basin response characteristics. An examination of the utility of the proposed indices in parameter estimation is conducted for a five-parameter hydrologic model using data from the Leaf River, located in Fort Collins, Mississippi. It is shown that constraining the parameter estimation by selecting only those parameters that result in model output which maintains the indices as found in the historical data can improve the reliability of model predictions. These improvements were manifested in (a) improvement of the prediction of low and high flow, (b) improvement of the overall total biases, and (c) maintenance of the hydrograph's shape for both long-term and short-term predictions. Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]