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Peter MA Calverley,1 Antonio R Anzueto,2 Daniel Dusser,3 Achim Mueller,4 Norbert Metzdorf,5 Robert A Wise6 1Clinical Science Centre, Institute of Ageing and Chronic Disease, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK; 2Pulmonary/Critical Care, University of Texas and South Texas Veterans Health Care System, San Antonio, TX, USA; 3Department of Pneumology, Hôpital Cochin, AP-HP, Université Paris Descartes, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France; 4Biostatistics and Data Sciences Europe, Boehringer Ingelheim Pharma GmbH & Co. KG, Biberach an der Riss, Germany; 5Respiratory Medicine, Boehringer Ingelheim Pharma GmbH & Co. KG, Ingelheim am Rhein, Germany; 6Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA Rationale: Exacerbations of COPD are managed differently, but whether treatment of one exacerbation predicts the likelihood of subsequent events is unknown. Objective: We examined whether the treatment given for exacerbations predicted subsequent outcomes. Methods: This was a post-hoc analysis of 17,135 patients with COPD from TIOtropium Safety and Performance In Respimat® (TIOSPIR®). Patients treated with tiotropium with one or more moderate to severe exacerbations on study were analyzed using descriptive statistics, logistic and Cox regression analysis, and Kaplan–Meier plots. Results: Of 8,061 patients with moderate to severe exacerbation(s), demographics were similar across patients with exacerbations treated with antibiotics and/or steroids or hospitalization. Exacerbations treated with systemic corticosteroids alone or in combination with antibiotics had the highest risk of subsequent exacerbation (HR: 1.21, P=0.0004 and HR: 1.33, P

Peter MA Calverley,1 Kay Tetzlaff,2 Daniel Dusser,3 Robert A Wise,4 Achim Mueller,5 Norbert Metzdorf,2 Antonio Anzueto6 1Clinical Science Centre, Institute of Ageing and Chronic Disease, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK; 2Respiratory Medicine, Boehringer Ingelheim Pharma GmbH, Ingelheim am Rhein, Germany; 3Department of Pneumology, Hôpital Cochin, Université Paris Descartes, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France; 4Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA; 5Biostatistics and Data Sciences Europe, Boehringer Ingelheim Pharma GmbH, Biberach an der Riss, Germany; 6Pulmonary Medicine and Critical Care, University of Texas Health Sciences Center and South Texas Veterans’ Health Care System, San Antonio, TX, USA Background: Exacerbation history is used to grade the risk of COPD exacerbation, but its reliability and relationship to other risk factors and prior therapy is unclear. To examine these interrelationships, we conducted a post hoc analysis of patients in the TIOSPIR trial with ≥2 years’ follow-up or who died on treatment.Patients and methods: Patients were grouped by their annual exacerbation rate on treatment into nonexacerbators, infrequent, and frequent exacerbators (annual exacerbation rates 0, ≤1, and >1, respectively), and baseline characteristics discriminating among the groups were determined. We used univariate and multivariate analyses to explore the effect of baseline characteristics on risk of exacerbation, hospitalization (severe exacerbation), and death (all causes).Results: Of 13,591 patients, 6,559 (48.3%) were nonexacerbators, 4,568 (33.6%) were infrequent exacerbators, and 2,464 (18.1%) were frequent exacerbators; 45% of patients without exacerbations in the previous year exacerbated on treatment. Multivariate analysis identified baseline pulmonary maintenance medication as a predictive factor of increased exacerbation risk, with inhaled corticosteroid treatment associated with increased exacerbation risk irrespective of exacerbation history.Conclusion: Our data confirm established risk factors for exacerbation, but highlight the limitations of exacerbation history when categorizing patients and the importance of prior treatment when identifying exacerbation risk. Keywords: COPD, exacerbation, frequent exacerbators

Daniel Dusser,1 Robert A Wise,2 Ronald Dahl,3 Antonio Anzueto,4,5 Kerstine Carter,6 Andy Fowler,7 Peter M Calverley8 1Service de Pneumologie, Hôpital Cochin, AP-HP, Université Paris Descartes, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France; 2Asthma and Allergy Center, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA; 3Allergy Centre, Odense University Hospital, Odense C, Denmark; 4Pulmonary/Critical Care, University of Texas, 5South Texas Veterans Health Care System, San Antonio, TX, USA; 6Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals Inc, Ridgefield, CT, USA; 7Boehringer Ingelheim Pharma Ltd, Bracknell, UK; 8Institute of Ageing and Chronic Disease, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK Background: The aim of this study was to evaluate whether Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) classification could predict mortality risk factors and whether baseline treatment intensity would relate to mortality within each group, using data from TIOSPIR®, the largest randomized clinical trial in COPD performed to date.Methods: A total of 17,135 patients from TIOSPIR® were pooled and grouped by GOLD grading (A–D) according to baseline Medical Research Council breathlessness score, exacerbation history, and spirometry. All-cause mortality and adjudicated cardiovascular (CV) and respiratory mortality were assessed.Results: Of the 16,326 patients classified, 1,248 died on treatment. Group B patients received proportionally more CV treatment at baseline. CV mortality risk, but not all-cause mortality risk, was significantly higher in Group B than Group C patients (CV mortality – hazard ratio [HR] =1.74, P=0.004; all-cause mortality – HR =1.18, P=0.11). Group D patients had a higher incidence of all-cause mortality than Group B patients (10.9% vs 6.6%). Similar trends were observed regardless of respiratory or CV medication at baseline. In contrast, respiratory deaths increased consistently from Groups A–D (0.3%, 0.8%, 1.6%, and 4.2% of patients, respectively).Conclusion: The data obtained from the TIOSPIR® trial, supporting earlier studies, suggest that proportionally more CV medication and CV deaths occur in GOLD Group B COPD patients, although deaths attributed to respiratory causes are more prevalent in Groups C and D. Keywords: TIOSPIR®, GOLD, cardiovascular comorbidity, mortality, respiratory death, cardiovascular death