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The outbreak of a novel coronavirus causing severe acute respiratory syndrome in December 2019 has escalated into a worldwide pandemic. In this work, we propose a compartmental model to describe the dynamics of transmission of infection and use it to obtain the optimal vaccination control. The model accounts for the various stages of the vaccination, and the optimisation is focused on minimising the infections to protect the population and relieve the healthcare system. As a case study, we selected the Republic of Ireland. We use data provided by Ireland's COVID-19 Data-Hub and simulate the evolution of the pandemic with and without the vaccination in place for two different scenarios, one representative of a national lockdown situation and the other indicating looser restrictions in place. One of the main findings of our work is that the optimal approach would involve a vaccination programme where the older population is vaccinated in larger numbers earlier while simultaneously part of the younger population also gets vaccinated to lower the risk of transmission between groups. We compare our simulated results with those of the vaccination policy taken by the Irish government to explore the advantages of our optimisation method. Our comparison suggests that a similar reduction in cases may have been possible even with a reduced set of vaccinations available for use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The question of testing for equality in distribution between two linear models, each consisting of sums of distinct discrete independent random variables with unequal numbers of observations, has emerged from the biological research. In this case, the computation of classical χ 2 statistics, which would not include all observations, results in loss of power, especially when sample sizes are small. Here, as an alternative that uses all data, the maximum likelihood estimator for the distribution of sum of discrete and independent random variables, which we call the convolution statistic, is proposed and its limiting normal covariance matrix determined. To challenge null hypotheses about the distribution of this sum, the generalized Wald's method is applied to define a testing statistic whose distribution is asymptotic to a χ 2 with as many degrees of freedom as the rank of such covariance matrix. Rank analysis also reveals a connection with the roots of the probability generating functions associated to the addend variables of the linear models. A simulation study is performed to compare the convolution test with Pearson's χ 2 , and to provide usage guidelines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While many communications media, such as wireless and certain classes of wireline channels, typically lead to bursty errors, most decoders are designed assuming memoryless channels. Consequently, communication systems generally rely on interleaving over tens of thousands of bits to match decoder assumptions. Even for short high rate codes, awaiting sufficient data in interleaving and de-interleaving is a significant source of unwanted latency. We construct an extension to the recently proposed Guessing Random Additive Noise Decoding (GRAND) algorithm, which we call GRAND-MO for GRAND Markov Order. By foregoing interleaving and instead making use of the bursty nature of noise, low-latency communication is possible with block error rates outperforming their interleaved counterparts by a substantial margin. We establish that certain well-known binary codes with structured code-word patterns are ill-suited for use in bursty channels, but Random Linear Codes (RLCs) prove robust to correlated noise. We further demonstrate that by operating directly on modulated symbols rather than de-mapped bits, GRAND-MO achieves further performance and complexity gains by exploiting information that is lost in demodulation. As a result, GRAND-MO provides one potential solution for applications that require ultra-reliable low latency communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interpreting forensic DNA signal is arduous since the total intensity is a cacophony of signal from noise, artifact, and allele from an unknown number of contributors (NOC). An alternate to traditional bulk‐processing pipelines is a single‐cell one, where the sample is collected, and each cell is sequestered resulting in n single‐source, single‐cell EPGs (scEPG) that must be interpreted using applicable strategies. As with all forensic DNA interpretation strategies, high quality electropherograms are required; thus, to enhance the credibility of single‐cell forensics, it is necessary to produce an efficient direct‐to‐PCR treatment that is compatible with prevailing downstream laboratory processes. We incorporated the semi‐automated micro‐fluidic DEPArray™ technology into the single‐cell laboratory and optimized its implementation by testing the effects of four laboratory treatments on single‐cell profiles. We focused on testing effects of phosphate buffer saline (PBS) since it is an important reagent that mitigates cell rupture but is also a PCR inhibitor. Specifically, we explored the effect of decreasing PBS concentrations on five electropherogram‐quality metrics from 241 leukocytes: profile drop‐out, allele drop‐out, allele peak heights, peak height ratios, and scEPG sloping. In an effort to improve reagent use, we also assessed two concentrations of proteinase K. The results indicate that decreasing PBS concentrations to 0.5X or 0.25X improves scEPG quality, while modest modifications to proteinase K concentrations did not significantly impact it. We, therefore, conclude that a lower than recommended proteinase K concentration coupled with a lower than recommended PBS concentration results in enhanced scEPGs within the semi‐automated single‐cell pipeline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The design and implementation of error correcting codes has long been informed by two fundamental results: Shannon’s 1948 capacity theorem, which established that long codes use noisy channels most efficiently; and Berlekamp, McEliece, and Van Tilborg’s 1978 theorem on the NP-completeness of decoding linear codes. These results shifted focus away from creating code-independent decoders, but recent low-latency communication applications necessitate relatively short codes, providing motivation to reconsider the development of universal decoders. We introduce a scheme for employing binarized symbol soft information within Guessing Random Additive Noise Decoding, a universal hard detection decoder. We incorporate codebook-independent quantization of soft information to indicate demodulated symbols to be reliable or unreliable. We introduce two decoding algorithms: one identifies a conditional Maximum Likelihood (ML) decoding; the other either reports a conditional ML decoding or an error. For random codebooks, we present error exponents and asymptotic complexity, and show benefits over hard detection. As empirical illustrations, we compare performance with majority logic decoding of Reed-Muller codes, with Berlekamp-Massey decoding of Bose-Chaudhuri-Hocquenghem codes, with CA-SCL decoding of CA-Polar codes, and establish the performance of Random Linear Codes, which require a universal decoder and offer a broader palette of code sizes and rates than traditional codes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the central problem in data privacy: how to share data with an analyst while providing both privacy and utility guarantees to the user that owns the data. In this setting, we present an estimation-theoretic analysis of the privacy-utility trade-off (PUT). Here, an analyst is allowed to reconstruct (in a mean-squared error sense) certain functions of the data (utility), while other private functions should not be reconstructed with distortion below a certain threshold (privacy). We demonstrate how chi-square information captures the fundamental PUT in this case and provide bounds for the best PUT. We propose a convex program to compute privacy-assuring mappings when the functions to be disclosed and hidden are known a priori and the data distribution is known. We derive lower bounds on the minimum mean-squared error of estimating a target function from the disclosed data and evaluate the robustness of our approach when an empirical distribution is used to compute the privacy-assuring mappings instead of the true data distribution. We illustrate the proposed approach through two numerical experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a new algorithm for realizing maximum likelihood (ML) decoding for arbitrary codebooks in discrete channels with or without memory, in which the receiver rank-orders noise sequences from most likely to least likely. Subtracting noise from the received signal in that order, the first instance that results in a member of the codebook is the ML decoding. We name this algorithm GRAND for Guessing Random Additive Noise Decoding. We establish that GRAND is capacity-achieving when used with random codebooks. For rates below capacity, we identify error exponents, and for rates beyond capacity, we identify success exponents. We determine the scheme’s complexity in terms of the number of computations that the receiver performs. For rates beyond capacity, this reveals thresholds for the number of guesses by which, if a member of the codebook is identified, that it is likely to be the transmitted code word. We introduce an approximate ML decoding scheme where the receiver abandons the search after a fixed number of queries, an approach we dub GRANDAB, for GRAND with ABandonment. While not an ML decoder, we establish that the algorithm GRANDAB is also capacity-achieving for an appropriate choice of abandonment threshold, and characterize its complexity, error, and success exponents. Worked examples are presented for Markovian noise that indicate these decoding schemes substantially outperform the brute force decoding approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given a collection of strings, each with an associated probability of occurrence, the guesswork of each of them is their position in a list ordered from most likely to least likely, breaking ties arbitrarily. The guesswork is central to several applications in information theory: average guesswork provides a lower bound on the expected computational cost of a sequential decoder to decode successfully the transmitted message; the complementary cumulative distribution function of guesswork gives the error probability in list decoding; the logarithm of guesswork is the number of bits needed in optimal lossless one-to-one source coding; and the guesswork is the number of trials required of an adversary to breach a password protected system in a brute-force attack. In this paper, we consider memoryless string sources that generate strings consisting of independent and identically distributed characters drawn from a finite alphabet, and characterize their corresponding guesswork. Our main tool is the tilt operation on a memoryless string source. We show that the tilt operation on a memoryless string source parametrizes an exponential family of memoryless string sources, which we refer to as the tilted family of the string source. We provide an operational meaning to the tilted families by proving that two memoryless string sources result in the same guesswork on all strings of all lengths if and only if their respective categorical distributions belong to the same tilted family. Establishing some general properties of the tilt operation, we generalize the notions of weakly typical set and asymptotic equipartition property to tilted weakly typical sets of different orders. We use this new definition to characterize the large deviations for all atypical strings and characterize the volume of tilted weakly typical sets of different orders. We subsequently build on this characterization to prove large deviation bounds on guesswork and provide an accurate approximation of its probability mass function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]