Search

This article presents information related to a theorem related to statistical interference developed by a minister, Thomas Bayes. Bayes theorem is an alternative to conventional statistical testing. Two types of distribution are involved in the theorem. The one containing background knowledge at disposal before examining a new data set is called a prior distribution, which is the hypothetical probabilities of particular states of the world as it is thus far revealed. The posterior distribution is a revised estimate of knowledge about the state of nature after new data have been collected and incorporated into prior knowledge. In the interactionist perspective, social interaction is seen as a process of continually interpreting meanings from others, and defining meanings to others. The Bayesian approach is likewise a continual process of refining distributions of expected outcomes in order to predict certain occurrences. The Bayesian approach seems especially suited for longitudinal, panel and experimental designs in which data are collected at two or more periods. When used in conjunction with causal regression models in such designs, emphasis could be placed on probabilities for change rather than amounts of change in succeeding variables.

The concept of self has become a stimulus for a great deal of research in recent years. However, a theory is still lacking which adequately explains the processes by which changes in the self occur. Festinger's dissonance theory seems to offer a potential explanation of self-changes, although, in its present form, dissonance theory may be thought of as dealing primarily with changes in attitudes toward social objects other than the self. The basic assumptions of dissonance theory are that individuals tend to maintain an internal consistency among cognitions and that behavior tends to be consistent with existing cognitions. The literature is replete with evidence that these assumptions are met in the phenomenon of self-attitudes. Previous studies reveal a tendency for consistency among self-attitudes and a similar tendency for consistency between self-attitudes and relevant behavior. Therefore, on this level of reasoning, it may be concluded that the hypothesis of dissonance theory regarding changes in social attitudes may be applied to changes in self-attitudes. Furthermore, Bergin reports success in an empirical test of the application of Festinger's cognitive dissonance theory to self-attitudes in a study of the effects of dissonant communications upon changes in self-referring attitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]