Search

Abstract This study aimed to analyze burden of STS and GIST in population and survival rate which represented the current situation of treatment in Thailand. The data was collected from five population-based cancer registries around the country for the period 2001 through 2015. The Segi world standard population was used to calculated age-standardized incidence rates (ASR). Standardized rate ratios (SRR) were used to compare populations. Joinpoint Trend Analysis was used to assess changes in incidence. STATA was used to examine patient survival rates. During the study period, 4080 cases of STS and 457 cases of GIST were reported. The ASR of STS and GIST was 2.14/100,000 person-years and 0.22/100,000 person-years, respectively. The most common histological types of STS were unspecified sarcoma (24.8%), leiomyosarcoma (19.0%) and liposarcoma (11.4%). The overall ASR of STS in Thailand was relatively low compared to Western countries. The five-year survival rate was 62.6% for STS and 63.4% for GIST, which was comparable to the rates reported in other countries. This is the first report of STS and GIST from PBCRs in Thailand. Based on current healthcare service, an overall survival rates of STS and GIST are comparable to those reported from others.

Abstract Radon exposure is the second leading cause of lung cancer, after smoking. In upper northern Thailand (UNT), lung cancer incidence was frequently reported by Thailand National Cancer Institute. Besides smoking, radon exposure may also influence the high lung cancer incidence in this region. Indoor radon concentrations were measured in 192 houses in eight provinces of UNT. Indoor radon concentrations ranged from 11 to 405 Bq m−3 and estimated annual effective dose ranged from 0.44 to 12.18 mSv y−1. There were significant differences in indoor radon concentrations between the houses of lung cancer cases and healthy controls (p = 0.033). We estimated that 26% of lung cancer deaths in males and 28% in females were attributable to indoor radon exposure in this region. Other factors influencing indoor radon levels included house characteristics and ventilation. The open window-to-wall ratio was negatively associated with indoor radon levels (B = −0.69, 95% CI −1.37, −0.02) while the bedroom location in the house and building material showed no association. Indoor radon hence induced the fractal proportion of lung cancer deaths in UNT.

Abstract Background The Ministry of Public Health of Thailand established universal health coverage (UHC) in 2002, which also included national-level screening for cervical cancer in 2005. This study examined the changes in mortality of cervical cancer in rural and urban areas in Chiang Mai Province of northern Thailand during the era of UHC and the immediately preceding period. Methods Data of cervical cancer patients in Chiang Mai in northern Thailand, who died from 1998 through 2012, were used to calculate the change in age-standardized rates of mortality (ASMR) using a joinpoint regression model and to calculate estimated annual percent changes (APC). The change in mortality rate by age groups along with changes by geographic area of residence were determined. Results Among the 1177 patients who died from cervical cancer, 13(1%), 713 (61%) and 451 (38%) were in the young age group (aged

BackgroundThe burden of HPV-related cancers in different regions worldwide varies according to several factors. This study aims to measure inequality in the risk of incidence of HPV-related cancers in term of geographical risk patterns in northern Thailand using a population-based cancer registry data.MethodsTrends in age-standardized HPV-related cancer incidence were calculated for the 2008-2017 time period. The Besag-York-Molli´e model was used to explore the spatial distribution of the relative risk (RR) of HPV-related cancers at the district level. A higher RR reflects a larger disparity. The geographical risk pattern of the diseases in two periods, 2008-2012 and 2013-2017 were described and compared.ResultsFrom 2008 to 2017, the incidence of oropharyngeal and anal cancers showed a slightly increased trend in males but remained stable in females, the incidence of vulvar, vaginal and penile cancers were stable while the incidence of cervical cancer decreased. The RR range was closer to 1 in the second period compared to the first period. This suggests a decrease in the disparities of incidence of cervical cancer. However, in some areas near the Thai-Myanmar border, the RR values remained high.ConclusionThe incidence rate of most HPV-related cancers remained low and stable over the study period in northern Thailand. For the most common HPV-related malignancy, cervical cancer, the incidence rate steadily decreased but with marked geographic disparities, possibly reflecting health inequity especially in the border areas.

The individualized prediction of breast cancer survival (IPBS) model was recently developed. Although the model showed acceptable performance during derivation, its external performance remained unknown. This study aimed to validate the IPBS model using the data of breast cancer patients in Northern Thailand. An external validation study was conducted based on female patients with breast cancer who underwent surgery at Maharaj Nakorn Chiang Mai hospital from 2005 to 2015. Data on IPBS predictors were collected. The endpoints were 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). The model performance was evaluated in terms of discrimination and calibration. Missing data were handled with multiple imputation. Of all 3581 eligible patients, 1868 were included. The 5-year OS and DFS were 85.2% and 81.9%. The IPBS model showed acceptable discrimination: C-statistics 0.706 to 0.728 for OS and 0.675 to 0.689 for DFS at 5 years. However, the IPBS model minimally overestimated both OS and DFS predictions. These overestimations were corrected after model recalibration. In this external validation study, the IPBS model exhibited good discriminative ability. Although it may provide minimal overestimation, recalibrating the model to the local context is a practical solution to improve the model calibration.

PURPOSE: Head and neck cancer is the sixth most common cancer in the world, and the largest burden occurs in developing countries. Although the primary risk factors have been well characterized, little is known about temporal trends in head and neck cancer across Thailand. METHODS: Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) occurrences diagnosed between 1990 and 2014 were selected by International Classification of Diseases (10th revision; ICD10) code from the Songkhla, Lampang, Chiang Mai, and Khon Kaen cancer registries and the US SEER program for oral cavity (ICD10 codes 00, 03-06), tongue (ICD10 codes 01-02), pharynx (ICD10 codes 09-10, 12-14), and larynx (ICD10 code 32). The data were analyzed using R and Joinpoint regression software to determine age-standardized incidence rates and trends of annual percent change (APC). Incidence rates were standardized using the Segi (1960) population. Stratified linear regression models were conducted to assess temporal trends in early-onset HNSCC across 20-year age groups. RESULTS: Although overall HNSCC rates are decreasing across all registries, subsite analyses demonstrate consistent decreases in both larynx and oral cavity cancers but suggest increases in tongue cancers among both sexes in the United States (APCmen, 2.36; APCwomen, 0.77) and in pharyngeal cancer in Khon Kaen and US men (APC, 2.1 and 2.23, respectively). Age-stratified APC analyses to assess young-onset (< 60 years old) trends demonstrated increased incidence in tongue cancer in Thailand and the United States as well as in pharyngeal cancers in Khon Kaen men age 40 to 59 years and US men age 50 to 59 years. CONCLUSION: Although overall trends in HNSCC are decreasing across both Thailand and the United States, there is reason to believe that the etiologic shift to oropharyngeal cancers in the United States may be occurring in Thailand.

Abstract Background Over the past decade, lung cancers have exhibited a disproportionately high mortality and increasing mortality trend in Thailand, especially in the northern region, and prevention strategies have consequently become more important in this region. Spatial analysis studies may be helpful in guiding any strategy put in place to respond to the risk of lung cancer mortality in specific areas. The aim of our study was to identify risk patterns for lung cancer mortality within the northern region of Thailand. Methods In the spatial analysis, the relative risk (RR) was used as a measure of the risk of lung cancer mortality in 81 districts of northern Thailand between 2008 and 2017. The RR was estimated according to the Besag-York-Mollié autoregressive spatial model performed using the OpenBUGS routine in the R statistical software package. We presented the overall and gender specific lung cancer mortality risk patterns of the region using the Quantum Geographic Information System. Results The overall risk of lung cancer mortality was the highest in the west of northern Thailand, especially in the Hang Dong, Doi Lo, and San Pa Tong districts. For both genders, the risk patterns of lung cancer mortality indicated a high risk in the west of northern Thailand, with females being at a higher risk than males. Conclusions There was distinct geographical variation in risk patterns of lung cancer mortality in Thailand. Differences could be related to differences in risk factors such as ground-based radon and air pollution. This study provides a starting point for estimating the spatial pattern of the risk of lung cancer mortality and for examining associations between geographic risk factors and lung mortality for further studies.

Prognostic models for breast cancer developed from Western countries performed less accurately in the Asian population. We aimed to develop a survival prediction model for overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) for Thai patients with breast cancer. We conducted a prognostic model research using a multicenter hospital-based cancer clinical registry from the Network of National Cancer Institutes of Thailand. All women diagnosed with breast cancer who underwent surgery between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2011 were included in the analysis. A flexible parametric survival model was used for developing the prognostic model for OS and DFS prediction. During the study period, 2021 patients were included. Of these, 1386 patients with 590 events were available for a complete-case analysis. The newly derived individualized prediction of breast cancer survival or the IPBS model consists of twelve routinely available predictors. The C-statistics from the OS and the DFS model were 0.72 and 0.70, respectively. The model showed good calibration for the prediction of five-year OS and DFS. The IPBS model provides good performance for the prediction of OS and PFS for breast cancer patients. A further external validation study is required before clinical implementation.

Purpose: Lung cancer is one of the most common cancers worldwide and in Thailand. We characterize and forecast region-specific patterns of lung cancer incidence by histology and sex. Methods: We analyzed lung cancer incidence trends in Thailand by histology (adenocarcinoma [AdC]; squamous cell carcinoma [SCC]; and large-cell, small-cell, and other carcinomas) from 1990 to 2014 in four cancer registries in three regions (north, Chiang Mai Province and Lampang Province; northeast: Khon Kaen Province; south: Songkhla Province). Annual percent change (APC) was calculated to quantify the incidence rate trends using joinpoint regression. Age-period-cohort models were used to examine the temporal trends of AdC and SCC by age, calendar year, and birth cohort. We projected the incidence of AdC and SCC up to 2030 using three independent approaches: joinpoint, age-period-cohort, and Nordpred models. Results: AdC incidence significantly increased from 1990 to 2012 in Chiang Mai males (APC, 1.3%), Songkhla males from 2004 to 2014 (APC, 2.5%), Songkhla females from 1990 to 2014 (APC, 5.9%), and Khon Kaen females from 2005 to 2014 (APC, 3.1%). Conversely, SCC incidence significantly decreased from 1990 to 2012 in Chiang Mai males and females (APC, −1.2% and −4.8%, respectively), Lampang males and females from 1993 to 2014 (APC, −5.4% and −5.2%, respectively), and Songkhla females from 1990 to 2014 (APC, −2.1%). In general, trends of AdC and SCC correlated more with birth cohort than with calendar year. Three projection models suggested that incidence rates of AdC in Songkhla may continue to increase until 2030. Conclusion: Temporal trends of lung cancer by histology varied among regions in Thailand. Reduction of lung cancer incidence in Thailand likely will require prevention strategies tailored to each specific region.

In Thailand, five cancer types—breast, cervical, colorectal, liver and lung cancer—contribute to over half of the cancer burden. The magnitude of these cancers must be quantified over time to assess previous health policies and highlight future trajectories for targeted prevention efforts. We provide a comprehensive assessment of these five cancers nationally and subnationally, with trend analysis, projections, and number of cases expected for the year 2025 using cancer registry data. We found that breast (average annual percent change (AAPC): 3.1%) and colorectal cancer (female AAPC: 3.3%, male AAPC: 4.1%) are increasing while cervical cancer (AAPC: −4.4%) is decreasing nationwide. However, liver and lung cancers exhibit disproportionately higher burdens in the northeast and north regions, respectively. Lung cancer increased significantly in northeastern and southern women, despite low smoking rates. Liver cancers are expected to increase in the northern males and females. Liver cancer increased in the south, despite the absence of the liver fluke, a known factor, in this region. Our findings are presented in the context of health policy, population dynamics and serve to provide evidence for future prevention strategies. Our subnational estimates provide a basis for understanding variations in region-specific risk factor profiles that contribute to incidence trends over time.

Purpose Lung cancer is one of the most common cancers worldwide and in Thailand. We characterize and forecast region-specific patterns of lung cancer incidence by histology and sex. Methods We analyzed lung cancer incidence trends in Thailand by histology (adenocarcinoma [AdC]; squamous cell carcinoma [SCC]; and large-cell, small-cell, and other carcinomas) from 1990 to 2014 in four cancer registries in three regions (north, Chiang Mai Province and Lampang Province; northeast: Khon Kaen Province; south: Songkhla Province). Annual percent change (APC) was calculated to quantify the incidence rate trends using joinpoint regression. Age-period-cohort models were used to examine the temporal trends of AdC and SCC by age, calendar year, and birth cohort. We projected the incidence of AdC and SCC up to 2030 using three independent approaches: joinpoint, age-period-cohort, and Nordpred models. Results AdC incidence significantly increased from 1990 to 2012 in Chiang Mai males (APC, 1.3%), Songkhla males from 2004 to 2014 (APC, 2.5%), Songkhla females from 1990 to 2014 (APC, 5.9%), and Khon Kaen females from 2005 to 2014 (APC, 3.1%). Conversely, SCC incidence significantly decreased from 1990 to 2012 in Chiang Mai males and females (APC, -1.2% and -4.8%, respectively), Lampang males and females from 1993 to 2014 (APC, -5.4% and -5.2%, respectively), and Songkhla females from 1990 to 2014 (APC, -2.1%). In general, trends of AdC and SCC correlated more with birth cohort than with calendar year. Three projection models suggested that incidence rates of AdC in Songkhla may continue to increase until 2030. Conclusion Temporal trends of lung cancer by histology varied among regions in Thailand. Reduction of lung cancer incidence in Thailand likely will require prevention strategies tailored to each specific region.