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Continental-to global-scale hydrologic and land surface models increasingly include representations of the groundwater system. Such large-scale models are essential for examining, communicating, and understanding the dynamic interactions between the Earth system above and below the land surface as well as the opportunities and limits of groundwater resources. We argue that both large-scale and regional-scale groundwater models have utility, strengths, and limitations, so continued modeling at both scales is essential and mutually beneficial. A crucial quest is how to evaluate the realism, capabilities, and performance of large-scale groundwater models given their modeling purpose of addressing large-scale science or sustainability questions as well as limitations in data availability and commensurability. Evaluation should identify if, when, or where large-scale models achieve their purpose or where opportunities for improvements exist so that such models better achieve their purpose. We suggest that reproducing the spatiotemporal details of regional-scale models and matching local data are not relevant goals. Instead, it is important to decide on reasonable model expectations regarding when a large-scale model is performing "well enough"in the context of its specific purpose. The decision of reasonable expectations is necessarily subjective even if the evaluation criteria are quantitative. Our objective is to provide recommendations for improving the evaluation of groundwater representation in continental-to global-scale models. We describe current modeling strategies and evaluation practices, and we subsequently discuss the value of three evaluation strategies: (1) comparing model outputs with available observations of groundwater levels or other state or flux variables (observation-based evaluation), (2) comparing several models with each other with or without reference to actual observations (model-based evaluation), and (3) comparing model behavior with expert expectations of hydrologic behaviors in particular regions or at particular times (expert-based evaluation). Based on evolving practices in model evaluation as well as innovations in observations, machine learning, and expert elicitation, we argue that combining observation-, model-, and expert-based model evaluation approaches, while accounting for commensurability issues, may significantly improve the realism of groundwater representation in large-scale models, thus advancing our ability for quantification, understanding, and prediction of crucial Earth science and sustainability problems. We encourage greater community-level communication and cooperation on this quest, including among global hydrology and land surface modelers, local to regional hydrogeologists, and hydrologists focused on model development and evaluation.

The Fertile Crescent, its hilly flanks and surrounding drylands has been a critical region for studying how climate has influenced societal change, and this review focuses on the region over the last 20,000 years. The complex social, economic, and environmental landscapes in the region today are not new phenomena and understanding their interactions requires a nuanced, multidisciplinary understanding of the past. This review builds on a history of collaboration between the social and natural palaeoscience disciplines. We provide a multidisciplinary, multiscalar perspective on the relevance of past climate, environmental, and archaeological research in assessing present day vulnerabilities and risks for the populations of southwest Asia. We discuss the complexity of palaeoclimatic data interpretation, particularly in relation to hydrology, and provide an overview of key time periods of palaeoclimatic interest. We discuss the critical role that vegetation plays in the human-climate-environment nexus and discuss the implications of the available palaeoclimate and archaeological data, and their interpretation, for palaeonarratives of the region, both climatically and socially. We also provide an overview of how modelling can improve our understanding of past climate impacts and associated change in risk to societies. We conclude by looking to future work, and identify themes of "scale" and "seasonality" as still requiring further focus. We suggest that by appreciating a given locale's place in the regional hydroscape, be it an archaeological site or palaeoenvironmental archive, more robust links to climate can be made where appropriate and interpretations drawn will demand the resolution of factors acting across multiple scales. This article is categorized under:Human Water > Water as Imagined and RepresentedScience of Water > Water and Environmental ChangeWater and Life > Nature of Freshwater Ecosystems.

Groundwater in sub-Saharan Africa supports livelihoods and poverty alleviation.sup.1,2, maintains vital ecosystems, and strongly influences terrestrial water and energy budgets.sup.3. Yet the hydrological processes that govern groundwater recharge and sustainability--and their sensitivity to climatic variability--are poorly constrained.sup.4,5. Given the absence of firm observational constraints, it remains to be seen whether model-based projections of decreased water resources in dry parts of the region.sup.4 are justified. Here we show, through analysis of multidecadal groundwater hydrographs across sub-Saharan Africa, that levels of aridity dictate the predominant recharge processes, whereas local hydrogeology influences the type and sensitivity of precipitation-recharge relationships. Recharge in some humid locations varies by as little as five per cent (by coefficient of variation) across a wide range of annual precipitation values. Other regions, by contrast, show roughly linear precipitation-recharge relationships, with precipitation thresholds (of roughly ten millimetres or less per day) governing the initiation of recharge. These thresholds tend to rise as aridity increases, and recharge in drylands is more episodic and increasingly dominated by focused recharge through losses from ephemeral overland flows. Extreme annual recharge is commonly associated with intense rainfall and flooding events, themselves often driven by large-scale climate controls. Intense precipitation, even during years of lower overall precipitation, produces some of the largest years of recharge in some dry subtropical locations. Our results therefore challenge the 'high certainty' consensus regarding decreasing water resources.sup.4 in such regions of sub-Saharan Africa. The potential resilience of groundwater to climate variability in many areas that is revealed by these precipitation-recharge relationships is essential for informing reliable predictions of climate-change impacts and adaptation strategies. Analysis of multidecadal hydrograph and precipitation data for sub-Saharan Africa shows a complex relationship between groundwater recharge and precipitation, and that a drier climate does not necessarily mean less recharge., Author(s): Mark O. Cuthbert [sup.1] [sup.2] [sup.3] [sup.4] , Richard G. Taylor [sup.1] , Guillaume Favreau [sup.5] , Martin C. Todd [sup.6] , Mohammad Shamsudduha [sup.1] [sup.7] , Karen G. [...]

For FAIR data storage and retrieval, GroMoPo is linked to the CUAHSI HydroShare repository (https://www.hydroshare.org/) via a resource submission with a "GroMoPo" tag. Approximately weekly, a HydroShare Python API script compiles all tagged GroMoPo resources as a single HydroShare resource (http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/114b76f89d1c41c38e0e235443c7544c) and uses this to populate the GroMoPo map. Groundwater systems are threatened worldwide by stressors including climate change, land-use/land cover change, contamination, and water use (Gleeson et al. [3]). [Extracted from the article]

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) represents the evaporative demand in the atmosphere for the removal of water from the land and is an essential variable for understanding and modelling land–atmosphere interactions. Weather generators are often used to generate stochastic rainfall time series; however, no such model exists for the generation of a stochastically plausible PET time series. Here we develop a stochastic PET generator, stoPET, by leveraging a recently published global dataset of hourly PET at 0.1 ∘ resolution (hPET). stoPET is designed to simulate realistic time series of PET that capture the diurnal and seasonal variability in hPET and to support the simulation of various scenarios of climate change. The parsimonious model is based on a sine function fitted to the monthly average diurnal cycle of hPET, producing parameters that are then used to generate any number of synthetic series of randomised hourly PET for a specific climate scenario at any point of the global land surface between 55 ∘ N and 55 ∘ S. In addition to supporting a stochastic analysis of historical PET, stoPET also incorporates three methods to account for potential future changes in atmospheric evaporative demand to rising global temperature. These include (1) a user-defined percentage increase in annual PET, (2) a step change in PET based on a unit increase in temperature, and (3) the extrapolation of the historical trend in hPET into the future. We evaluated stoPET at a regional scale and at 12 locations spanning arid and humid climatic regions around the globe. stoPET generates PET distributions that are statistically similar to hPET and an independent PET dataset from CRU, thereby capturing their diurnal/seasonal dynamics, indicating that stoPET produces physically plausible diurnal and seasonal PET variability. We provide examples of how stoPET can generate large ensembles of PET for future climate scenario analysis in sectors like agriculture and water resources with minimal computational demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought forecasting and early warning systems for water resource extremes are increasingly important tools in water resource management in Europe where increased population density and climate change are expected to place greater pressures on water supply. In this context, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is often used to indicate future water resource behaviours (including droughts) over Europe, given its dominant control on winter rainfall totals in the North Atlantic region. Recent hydroclimate research has focused on the role of multiannual periodicities in the NAO in driving low frequency behaviours in some water resources, suggesting that notable improvements to lead-times in forecasting may be possible by incorporating these multiannual relationships. However, the importance of multiannual NAO periodicities for driving water resource behaviour, and the feasibility of this relationship for indicating future droughts, has yet to be assessed in the context of known non-stationarities that are internal to the NAO and its influence on European meteorological processes. Here we quantify the time–frequency relationship between the NAO and a large dataset of water resources records to identify key non-stationarities that have dominated multiannual behaviour of water resource extremes over recent decades. The most dominant of these is a 7.5-year periodicity in water resource extremes since approximately 1970 but which has been diminishing since 2005. Furthermore, we show that the non-stationary relationship between the NAO and European rainfall is clearly expressed at multiannual periodicities in the water resource records assessed. These multiannual behaviours are found to have modulated historical water resource anomalies to an extent that is comparable to the projected effects of a worst-case climate change scenario. Furthermore, there is limited systematic understanding in existing atmospheric research for non-stationarities in these periodic behaviours which poses considerable implications to existing water resource forecasting and projection systems, as well as the use of these periodic behaviours as an indicator of future water resource drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) represents the evaporative demand in the atmosphere for the removal of water from the land and is an essential variable for understanding and modelling land-atmosphere interactions. Weather generators are often used to generate stochastic rainfall time series; however, no such model exists for stochastically generating plausible PET time series. Here we develop a stochastic PET generator, stoPET, by leveraging a recently published global dataset of hourly PET at 0.1° resolution (hPET). stoPET is designed to simulate realistic time series of PET that capture the diurnal and seasonal variability of hPET and to support the simulation of various scenarios of climate change. The parsimonious model is based on a sine function fitted to the monthly average diurnal cycle of hPET, producing parameters that are then used to generate synthetic series of hourly PET at any 0.1° land surface point between 55° N and 55° S. stoPET also incorporates three methods to account for potential future changes in atmospheric evaporative demand to rising global temperature. These include 1) user-defined percentage increase of annual PET; 2) a step change in PET based on a unit increase in temperature, and 3) extrapolation of the historical trend in hPET into the future. We evaluated stoPET at a regional scale and at twelve locations spanning arid and humid climatic regions around the globe. stoPET generates PET distributions that are statistically similar to hPET, capturing its diurnal/seasonal dynamics, indicating that stoPET produces physically plausible diurnal and seasonal PET variability. We provide examples of how stoPET can generate large ensembles of PET for future climate scenario analysis in sectors like agriculture and water resources, with minimal computational demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought forecasting and early warning systems for water resource extremes are increasingly important tools in water resource management, particularly in Europe where increased population density and climate change are expected to place greater pressures on water supply. In this context, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is often used to indicate future water resource behaviours (including droughts) over Europe, given its dominant control on winter rainfall totals in the North Atlantic region. Recent hydroclimate research has focused on the role of multiannual periodicities in the NAO in driving low frequency behaviours in some water resources, suggesting that notable improvements to lead-times in forecasting may be possible by incorporating these multiannual relationships. However, the importance of multiannual NAO periodicities for driving water resource behaviour, and the feasibility of this relationship for indicating future droughts, has yet to be assessed in the context of known non-stationarities that are internal to the NAO and its influence on European meteorological processes. Here we quantify the time-frequency relationship between the NAO and a large dataset of water resources records to identify key non-stationarities that have dominated multiannual behaviour of water resource extremes over recent decades. The most dominant of these is a 7.5-year periodicity in water resource extremes since approximately 1970 but which has been diminishing since 2005. Furthermore, we show that the non-stationary relationship between the NAO and European rainfall is clearly expressed at multiannual periodicities in the water resource records assessed. These multiannual behaviours are found to have modulated historical water resource anomalies to an extent that is comparable to the projected effects of a worst-case climate change scenario. Furthermore, there is limited systematic understanding in existing atmospheric research for non-stationaries in these periodic behaviours which poses considerable implications to existing water resource forecasting and projection systems, as well as the use of these periodic behaviours as an indicator of future water resource drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dryland regions are characterised by water scarcity and are facing major challenges under climate change. One difficulty is anticipating how rainfall will be partitioned into evaporative losses, groundwater, soil moisture, and runoff (the water balance) in the future, which has important implications for water resources and dryland ecosystems. However, in order to effectively estimate the water balance, hydrological models in drylands need to capture the key processes at the appropriate spatio-temporal scales. These include spatially restricted and temporally brief rainfall, high evaporation rates, transmission losses, and focused groundwater recharge. Lack of available input and evaluation data and the high computational costs of explicit representation of ephemeral surface–groundwater interactions restrict the usefulness of most hydrological models in these environments. Therefore, here we have developed a parsimonious distributed hydrological model for DRYland Partitioning (DRYP). The DRYP model incorporates the key processes of water partitioning in dryland regions with limited data requirements, and we tested it in the data-rich Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed against measurements of streamflow, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration. Overall, DRYP showed skill in quantifying the main components of the dryland water balance including monthly observations of streamflow (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, NSE, ∼ 0.7), evapotranspiration (NSE > 0.6), and soil moisture (NSE ∼ 0.7). The model showed that evapotranspiration consumes > 90 % of the total precipitation input to the catchment and that < 1 % leaves the catchment as streamflow. Greater than 90 % of the overland flow generated in the catchment is lost through ephemeral channels as transmission losses. However, only ∼ 35 % of the total transmission losses percolate to the groundwater aquifer as focused groundwater recharge, whereas the rest is lost to the atmosphere as riparian evapotranspiration. Overall, DRYP is a modular, versatile, and parsimonious Python-based model which can be used to anticipate and plan for climatic and anthropogenic changes to water fluxes and storage in dryland regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite clear signals of regional impacts of the recent severe drought in California, e.g., within Californian Central Valley groundwater storage and Sierra Nevada forests, our understanding of how this drought affected soil moisture and vegetation responses in lowland grasslands is limited. In order to better understand the resulting vulnerability of these landscapes to fire and ecosystem degradation, we aimed to generalize drought-induced changes in subsurface soil moisture and to explore its effects within grassland ecosystems of Southern California. We used a high-resolution in situ dataset of climate and soil moisture from two grassland sites (coastal and inland), alongside greenness (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data from Landsat imagery, to explore drought dynamics in environments with similar precipitation but contrasting evaporative demand over the period 2008–2019. We show that negative impacts of prolonged precipitation deficits on vegetation at the coastal site were buffered by fog and moderate temperatures. During the drought, the Santa Barbara region experienced an early onset of the dry season in mid-March instead of April, resulting in premature senescence of grasses by mid-April. We developed a parsimonious soil moisture balance model that captures dynamic vegetation–evapotranspiration feedbacks and analyzed the links between climate, soil moisture, and vegetation greenness over several years of simulated drought conditions, exploring the impacts of plausible climate change scenarios that reflect changes to precipitation amounts, their seasonal distribution, and evaporative demand. The redistribution of precipitation over a shortened rainy season highlighted a strong coupling of evapotranspiration to incoming precipitation at the coastal site, while the lower water-holding capacity of soils at the inland site resulted in additional drainage occurring under this scenario. The loss of spring rains due to a shortening of the rainy season also revealed a greater impact on the inland site, suggesting less resilience to low moisture at a time when plant development is about to start. The results also suggest that the coastal site would suffer disproportionally from extended dry periods, effectively driving these areas into more extreme drought than previously seen. These sensitivities suggest potential future increases in the risk of wildfires under climate change, as well as increased grassland ecosystem vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An understanding of multi-annual behaviour in streamflow allows for better estimation of the risks associated with hydrological extremes. This can enable improved preparedness for streamflow-dependant services, such as freshwater ecology, drinking water supply and agriculture. Recently, efforts have focused on detecting relationships between long-term hydrological behaviour and oscillatory climate systems (such as the North Atlantic Oscillation – NAO). For instance, the approximate 7 year periodicity of the NAO has been detected in groundwater-level records in the North Atlantic region, providing potential improvements to the preparedness for future water resource extremes due to their repetitive, periodic nature. However, the extent to which these 7-year, NAO-like signals are propagated to streamflow, and the catchment processes that modulate this propagation, are currently unknown. Here, we show statistically significant evidence that these 7-year periodicities are present in streamflow (and associated catchment rainfall), by applying multi-resolution analysis to a large data set of streamflow and associated catchment rainfall across the UK. Our results provide new evidence for spatial patterns of NAO periodicities in UK rainfall, with areas of greatest NAO signal found in southwest England, south Wales, Northern Ireland and central Scotland, and show that NAO-like periodicities account for a greater proportion of streamflow variability in these areas. Furthermore, we find that catchments with greater subsurface pathway contribution, as characterised by the baseflow index (BFI), generally show increased NAO-like signal strength and that subsurface response times (as characterised by groundwater response time – GRT), of between 4 and 8 years, show a greater signal presence. Our results provide a foundation of understanding for the screening and use of streamflow teleconnections for improving the practice and policy of long-term streamflow resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the degree to which this relationship has been utilized in water resource studies, we find that such non-stationarity has direct implications for the efficacy of water resource forecasting in Western Europe. Water resource forecasting generally centres on understanding hydrological variability over coming months or years, so that water managers can prepare for extremes such as droughts or floods (Chang & Guo, 2020; Hao et al., 2018). Dotted grey lines represent the 95% CI gl DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS This paper seeks to question whether the relationship between winter NAOI and winter precipitation (NAOI-P) is sufficiently stationary for application to water resource forecasting in Western Europe. We discuss the non-stationarity of the NAOI-P relationship in Western Europe from a water resource forecasting perspective, by undertaking a rolling 10-year window correlation between the NAOI and gridded winter rainfall estimates for the period the past 125 years (1889-2016) across Western Europe. [Extracted from the article]

The groundwater response to Earth tides and atmospheric pressure changes can be used to understand subsurface processes and estimate hydraulic and hydro-mechanical properties. We develop a generalised frequency domain approach to disentangle the impacts of Earth and atmospheric tides on groundwater level responses. By considering the complex harmonic properties of the signal, we improve upon a previous method for quantifying barometric efficiency (BE), while simultaneously assessing system confinement and estimating hydraulic conductivity and specific storage. We demonstrate and validate this novel approach using an example barometric and groundwater pressure record with strong Earth tide influences. Our method enables improved and rapid assessment of subsurface processes and properties using standard pressure measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite clear signals of regional impacts of the recent severe drought in California within Central Valley groundwater storage and Sierra Nevada forests, our understanding of how this drought affected soil moisture and vegetation responses in lowland grasslands is limited. In order to better understand the resulting vulnerability of these landscapes to fire and ecosystem degradation, we aimed to generalize drought-induced changes in subsurface soil moisture and to explore its effects within grassland ecosystems of Southern California. We used a decadal in situ dataset of high-resolution climate and soil moisture from two grassland sites (coastal and inland), alongside greenness (NDVI) data from Landsat to explore drought dynamics in environments with similar precipitation but contrasting evaporative demand. Analysis of data from 2008 to 2019 showed that the negative impacts of prolonged net precipitation (netP) deficits on vegetation at the inlands site were buffered by fog and moderate temperatures at the coastal site. During the drought, the region experienced an early onset of the dry season, resulting in premature senescence of grasses by mid-April. We developed a parsimonious soil moisture balance model that captures dynamic vegetation-evapotranspiration feedbacks using netP-NDVI relationships as a leading indicator. We then analyzed the links between climate, soil moisture, and vegetation greenness over decadal timescales, exploring the impacts of plausible climate change scenarios that reflect changes to precipitation amounts, their seasonal distribution, and evaporative demand. We found that all scenarios generate early, extreme soil moisture deficits during drought below a vegetation stress threshold, further intensifying early dry season onset and vegetation die-off. These changes suggest potential increases in the risk of wildfires in this and similar regions under climate change, as well as increased grassland ecosystem vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transmission losses from the beds of ephemeral streams are thought to be a widespread mechanism of groundwater recharge in arid and semi‐arid regions and support a range of dryland hydro‐ecology. Dryland areas cover ~40% of the Earth's land surface and groundwater resources are often the main source of freshwater. It is commonly assumed that where an unsaturated zone exists beneath a stream, the interaction between surface water and groundwater is unidirectional and that groundwater does not exert a significant feedback on transmission losses. To test this assumption, we conducted a series of numerical model experiments using idealised two‐dimensional channel‐transects to assess the sensitivity and degree of interaction between surface and groundwater for typical dryland ephemeral stream geometries, hydraulic properties and flow regimes. We broaden the use of the term 'stream–aquifer interactions' to refer not just to fluxes and water exchange but also to include the ways in which the stream and aquifer have a hydraulic effect on one another. Our results indicate that deep water tables, less frequent streamflow events and/or highly permeable sediments tend to result in limited bi‐directional hydraulic interaction between the stream and the underlying groundwater which, in turn, results in high amounts of infiltration. With shallower initial depth to the water table, higher streamflow frequency and/or lower bed permeability, greater 'negative' hydraulic feedback from the groundwater occurs which in turn results in lower amounts of infiltration. Streambed losses eventually reach a constant rate as initial water table depths increase, but only at depths of 10s of metres in some of the cases studied. Our results highlight that bi‐directional stream–aquifer hydraulic interactions in ephemeral streams may be more widespread than is commonly assumed. We conclude that groundwater and surface water should be considered as connected systems for water resource management unless there is clear evidence to the contrary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An understanding of multi-annual behaviour in streamflow allows for better estimation of the risks associated with hydrological extremes. This is can enable improved preparedness for streamflow-dependant services such as freshwater ecology, drinking water supply and agriculture. Recently, efforts have focused on detecting relationships between long-term hydrological behaviour and oscillatory climate systems (such as the NAO). For instance, the approximate 7-year periodicity of the NAO has been detected in groundwater level records in the North Atlantic region, providing a degree of forecasting for future water resource extremes due to their repeating, periodic nature. However, the extent to which these 7-year NAO-like signals are propagated to streamflow, and the catchment processes that modulate this propagation, are currently unknown. Here, we show statistically significant evidence that these 7-year periodicities are present in streamflow (and associated catchment rainfall), by applying multi-resolution analysis to a large dataset of streamflow and associated catchment rainfall across the UK. Our results provide new evidence for spatial patterns of NAO periodicities in UK rainfall with areas of greatest NAO signal found in south west England, South Wales, Northern Ireland and central Scotland, and that NAO-like periodicities account for a greater proportion of streamflow variability in these areas. Furthermore, we show that subsurface pathway contribution, as characterised by the Baseflow Index (BFI), and the response times of subsurface pathways, as characterised by Groundwater response Time (GRT), are influential factors for streamflow sensitivity to these NAO-like cycles. Our results provide critical process understanding for the screening and use of streamflow teleconnections for the improving the practice and policy of long-term streamflow resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Groundwater is the largest store of freshwater on Earth after the cryosphere and provides a substantial proportion of the water used for domestic, irrigation and industrial purposes. Knowledge of this essential resource remains incomplete, in part, because of observational challenges of scale and accessibility. Here we examine a 14-year period (2002–2016) of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observations to investigate climate–groundwater dynamics of 14 tropical and sub-tropical aquifers selected from WHYMAP's (Worldwide Hydrogeological Mapping and Assessment Programme) 37 large aquifer systems of the world. GRACE-derived changes in groundwater storage resolved using GRACE Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) mascons and the Community Land Model's land surface model are related to precipitation time series and regional-scale hydrogeology. We show that aquifers in dryland environments exhibit long-term hydraulic memory through a strong correlation between groundwater storage changes and annual precipitation anomalies integrated over the time series; aquifers in humid environments show short-term memory through strong correlation with monthly precipitation. This classification is consistent with estimates of groundwater response times calculated from the hydrogeological properties of each system, with long (short) hydraulic memory associated with slow (rapid) response times. The results suggest that groundwater systems in dryland environments may be less sensitive to seasonal climate variability but vulnerable to long-term trends from which they will be slow to recover. In contrast, aquifers in humid regions may be more sensitive to climate disturbances such as drought related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation but may also be relatively quick to recover. Exceptions to this general pattern are traced to human interventions through groundwater abstraction. Hydraulic memory is an important factor in the management of groundwater resources, particularly under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Groundwater is a crucial resource for current and future generations, but it is not being sustainably used in many parts of the world. The objective of this review is to provide a clear portrait of global-scale groundwater sustainability, systems, and resources in the Anthropocene to inspire a pivot toward more sustainable pathways of groundwater use. We examine groundwater from three different but related perspectives of sustainability science, natural resource governance and management, and Earth System science. An Earth System approach highlights the connections between groundwater and the other parts of the system and how these connections are impacting, or are impacted by, groundwater pumping. Groundwater is the largest store of unfrozen freshwater on Earth and is heterogeneously connected to many Earth System processes on different timescales. We propose a definition of groundwater sustainability that has a direct link with observable data, governance, and management as well as the crucial functions and services of groundwater. ▪ Groundwater is depleted or contaminated in some regions; it is ubiquitously distributed, which, importantly, makes it broadly accessible but also slow and invisible and therefore challenging to govern and manage. ▪ Regional differences in priorities, hydrology, politics, culture, and economic contexts mean that different governance and management tools are important, but a global perspective can support higher level international policies in an increasingly globalized world that require broader analysis of interconnections and knowledge transfer between regions. ▪ A coherent, overarching framework of groundwater sustainability is more important for groundwater governance and management than the concepts of safe yield, renewability, depletion, or stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting the next major drought is of paramount interest to water managers globally. Estimating the onset of groundwater drought is of particular importance, as groundwater resources are often assumed to be more resilient when surface water resources begin to fail. A potential source of long-term forecasting is offered by possible periodic controls on groundwater level via teleconnections with oscillatory ocean–atmosphere systems. However, relationships between large-scale climate systems and regional to local-scale rainfall, evapotranspiration (ET) and groundwater are often complex and non-linear so that the influence of long-term climate cycles on groundwater drought remains poorly understood. Furthermore, it is currently unknown whether the absolute contribution of multi-annual climate variability to total groundwater storage is significant. This study assesses the extent to which multi-annual variability in groundwater can be used to indicate the timing of groundwater droughts in the UK. Continuous wavelet transforms show how repeating teleconnection-driven 7-year and 16–32-year cycles in the majority of groundwater sites from all the UK's major aquifers can systematically control the recurrence of groundwater drought; and we provide evidence that these periodic modes are driven by teleconnections. Wavelet reconstructions demonstrate that multi-annual periodicities of the North Atlantic Oscillation, known to drive North Atlantic meteorology, comprise up to 40 % of the total groundwater storage variability. Furthermore, the majority of UK recorded droughts in recent history coincide with a minimum phase in the 7-year NAO-driven cycles in groundwater level, providing insight into drought occurrences on a multi-annual timescale. Long-range groundwater drought forecasts via climate teleconnections present transformational opportunities to drought prediction and its management across the North Atlantic region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of climate variability on groundwater storage has received limited attention despite widespread dependence on groundwater as a resource for drinking water, agriculture and industry. Here, we assess the climate anomalies that occurred over Southern Africa (SA) and East Africa, south of the Equator (EASE), during the major El Niño event of 2015–2016, and their associated impacts on groundwater storage, across scales, through analysis of in situ groundwater piezometry and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data. At the continental scale, the El Niño of 2015–2016 was associated with a pronounced dipole of opposing rainfall anomalies over EASE and Southern Africa, north–south of ∼12 ∘ S, a characteristic pattern of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Over Southern Africa the most intense drought event in the historical record occurred, based on an analysis of the cross-scale areal intensity of surface water balance anomalies (as represented by the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index – SPEI), with an estimated return period of at least 200 years and a best estimate of 260 years. Climate risks are changing, and we estimate that anthropogenic warming only (ignoring changes to other climate variables, e.g. precipitation) has approximately doubled the risk of such an extreme SPEI drought event. These surface water balance deficits suppressed groundwater recharge, leading to a substantial groundwater storage decline indicated by both GRACE satellite and piezometric data in the Limpopo basin. Conversely, over EASE during the 2015–2016 El Niño event, anomalously wet conditions were observed with an estimated return period of ∼10 years, likely moderated by the absence of a strongly positive Indian Ocean zonal mode phase. The strong but not extreme rainy season increased groundwater storage, as shown by satellite GRACE data and rising groundwater levels observed at a site in central Tanzania. We note substantial uncertainties in separating groundwater from total water storage in GRACE data and show that consistency between GRACE and piezometric estimates of groundwater storage is apparent when spatial averaging scales are comparable. These results have implications for sustainable and climate-resilient groundwater resource management, including the potential for adaptive strategies, such as managed aquifer recharge during episodic recharge events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of climate variability on groundwater storage has received limited attention despite widespread dependence on groundwater as a resource for drinking water, agriculture and industry. Here, we assess the climate anomalies that occurred over Southern Africa (SA) and East Africa, south of the equator (EASE), during the major El Niño event of 2015-16, and their associated impacts on groundwater storage, across scales, through analysis of in situ groundwater piezometry and GRACE satellite data. At the continental scale, the El Niño of 2015-16 was associated with a pronounced dipole of opposing rainfall anomalies over EASE and Southern Africa, north/south of ~12°S, a characteristic pattern of ENSO. Over Southern Africa the most intense drought event in the historical record occurred, based on an analysis of the cross-scale areal intensity of surface water balance anomalies (as represented by the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI), with an estimated return period of at least 200 years and a best estimate of 260 years. Climate risks are changing and we estimate that anthropogenic warming only (ignoring changes to other climate variables e.g. precipitation) has approximately doubled the risk of such an extreme SPEI drought event. These surface water balance deficits suppressed groundwater recharge, leading to a substantial groundwater storage decline indicated by both GRACE satellite and piezometric data in the Limpopo basin. Conversely, over EASE during the 2015-16 El Niño event, anomalously wet conditions were observed with an estimated return period of ~10 years, likely moderated by the absence of a strongly positive Indian Ocean Zonal Mode phase. The strong but not extreme rainy season increased groundwater storage as shown by satellite GRACE data and rising groundwater levels observed at a site in central Tanzania. We note substantial uncertainties in separating groundwater from total water storage in GRACE data and show that consistency between GRACE and piezometric estimates of groundwater storage is apparent when spatial averaging scales are comparable. These results have implications for sustainable and climate-resilient groundwater resource management, including the potential for adaptive strategies, such as managed aquifer recharge during episodic recharge events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Groundwater specific storage varies by orders of magnitude, is difficult to quantify, and prone to significant uncertainty. Estimating specific storage using aquifer testing is hampered by the nonuniqueness in the inversion of head data and the assumptions of the underlying conceptual model. We revisit confined poroelastic theory and reveal that the uniaxial specific storage can be calculated mainly from undrained poroelastic properties, namely, uniaxial bulk modulus, loading efficiency, and the Biot‐Willis coefficient. In addition, literature estimates of the solid grain compressibility enables quantification of subsurface poroelastic parameters using field techniques such as cross‐hole seismic surveys and loading efficiency from the groundwater responses to atmospheric tides. We quantify and compare specific storage depth profiles for two field sites, one with deep aeolian sands and another with smectitic clays. Our new results require bulk density and agree well when compared to previous approaches that rely on porosity estimates. While water in clays responds to stress, detailed sediment characterization from a core illustrates that the majority of water is adsorbed onto minerals leaving only a small fraction free to drain. This, in conjunction with a thorough analysis using our new method, demonstrates that specific storage has a physical upper limit of ≾ 1 . 3 · 1 0 − 5 m−1. Consequently, if larger values are derived using aquifer hydraulic testing, then the conceptual model that has been used needs reappraisal. Our method can be used to improve confined groundwater storage estimates and refine the conceptual models used to interpret hydraulic aquifer tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clay-rich deposits are commonly assumed to be aquitards which act as natural hydraulic barriers due to their low hydraulic connectivity. Postdepositional weathering processes are known to increase the permeability of aquitards in the near surface but not impact on deeper parts of relatively thick formations. However, syndepositional processes affecting the hydraulic properties of aquitards have previously received little attention in the literature. Here, we analyze a 31 m deep sediment core recovered from an inland clay-rich sedimentary sequence using a combination of techniques including particle size distribution and microscopy, centrifuge dye tracer testing and micro X-ray CT imaging. Subaerial deposition of soils within these fine grained alluvial deposits has led to the preservation of considerable macropores (root channels or animal burrows). Connected pores and macropores thus account for vertical hydraulic conductivity (K) of 4:231029 m/s (geometric mean of 13 samples) throughout the thick aquitard, compared to a matrix K that is likely <10210 m/s, the minimum K value that was measured. Our testing demonstrates that such syndepositional features may compromise the hydraulic integrity of what otherwise appears to have the characteristics of a much lower permeability aquitard. Heterogeneity within a clay-rich matrix could also enhance vertical connectivity, as indicated by digital analysis of pore morphology in CT images. We highlight that the paleo-environment under which the sediment was deposited must be considered when aquitards are investigated as potential natural hydraulic barriers and illustrate the value of combining multiple investigation techniques for characterizing clay-rich deposits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]