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Background: Current patient selection for adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) after curative surgery for stage II colon cancer (CC) is suboptimal, causing overtreatment of high-risk patients and undertreatment of low-risk patients. Postoperative circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) could improve patient selection for ACT. Objectives: We conducted an early model-based evaluation of the (cost-)effectiveness of ctDNA-guided selection for ACT in stage II CC in the Netherlands to assess the conditions for cost-effective implementation. Methods: A validated Markov model, simulating 1000 stage II CC patients from diagnosis to death, was supplemented with ctDNA data. Five ACT selection strategies were evaluated: the current guideline (pT4, pMMR), ctDNA-only, and three strategies that combined ctDNA status with pT4 and pMMR status in different ways. For each strategy, the costs, life years, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), recurrences, and CC deaths were estimated. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the impact of the costs of ctDNA testing, strategy adherence, ctDNA as a predictive biomarker, and ctDNA test performance. Results: Model predictions showed that compared to current guidelines, the ctDNA-only strategy was less effective (+2.2% recurrences, −0.016 QALYs), while the combination strategies were more effective (−3.6% recurrences, +0.038 QALYs). The combination strategies were not cost-effective, since the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €67,413 per QALY, exceeding the willingness-to-pay threshold of €50,000 per QALY. Sensitivity analyses showed that the combination strategies would be cost-effective if the ctDNA test costs were lower than €1500, or if ctDNA status was predictive of treatment response, or if the ctDNA test performance improved substantially. Conclusion: Adding ctDNA to current high-risk clinicopathological features (pT4 and pMMR) can improve patient selection for ACT and can also potentially be cost-effective. Future studies should investigate the predictive value of post-surgery ctDNA status to accurately evaluate the cost-effectiveness of ctDNA testing for ACT decisions in stage II CC. Plain language summary: Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of circulating tumour DNA-guided selection for adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with stage II colon cancer Most patients with stage II colon cancer (CC) are cured by surgery. Therefore, guidelines recommend to only offer adjuvant chemotherapy to patients who have a tumor with high-risk features. However, current selection is suboptimal, leading to recurrence of cancer in 13% of low-risk patients and unnecessary administration of chemotherapy in some high-risk patients. Previous studies indicate that a biomarker, so-called circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA), could improve the selection of high-risk patients for adjuvant chemotherapy, as patients who have detectable ctDNA in their blood after surgery are likely to develop a recurrence. Despite its potential, implementation is still pending. Our study assessed the long-term effectiveness and costs associated with various ctDNA-guided strategies for selecting high-risk patients for adjuvant chemotherapy in stage II CC. We used an health-economic model to simulate a cohort of 1000 Dutch patients with stage II CC from diagnosis to death. Next, we compared the health outcomes and costs of the ctDNA-guided strategies to those when selection is based on the Dutch guideline. We found that a combination of the Dutch guideline and ctDNA was the most effective strategy, but not cost-effective. Additional analyses showed that ctDNA-guided selection were cost-effective if the costs of the ctDNA test were below 1500 euros, if the ctDNA test performed significantly better, or if patients with detectable ctDNA responded better to chemotherapy. Thus, while post-surgery ctDNA status is a good indicator for recurrence risk, specific criteria related to ctDNA test performance and costs, in addition to combining ctDNA with current high-risk features, should be met to achieve cost-effective implementation. Looking ahead, future studies should explore how patients with detectable ctDNA respond to chemotherapy for next assessments of the cost-effectiveness of ctDNA-guided strategies in selecting patients with stage II CC for adjuvant chemotherapy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence on the cost-effectiveness of eHealth in palliative care is scarce. Oncokompas, a fully automated behavioral intervention technology, aims to support self-management in cancer patients. This study aimed to assess the cost-utility of the eHealth application Oncokompas among incurably ill cancer patients, compared to care as usual. In this randomized controlled trial, patients were randomized into the intervention group (access to Oncokompas) or the waiting-list control group (access after three months). Healthcare costs, productivity losses, and health status were measured at baseline and three months. Intervention costs were also taken into account. Non-parametric bootstrapping with 5000 replications was used to obtain 95% confidence intervals around the incremental costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). A probabilistic approach was used because of the skewness of cost data. Altogether, 138 patients completed the baseline questionnaire and were randomly assigned to the intervention group (69) or the control group (69). In the base case analysis, mean total costs and mean total effects were non-significantly lower in the intervention group (−€806 and −0.01 QALYs). The probability that the intervention was more effective and less costly was 4%, whereas the probability of being less effective and less costly was 74%. Among patients with incurable cancer, Oncokompas does not impact incremental costs and seems slightly less effective in terms of QALYs, compared to care as usual. Future research on the costs of eHealth in palliative cancer care is warranted to assess the generalizability of the findings of this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To optimize colorectal cancer (CRC) screening and surveillance, information regarding the time-dependent risk of advanced adenomas (AA) to develop into CRC is crucial. However, since AA are removed after diagnosis, the time from AA to CRC cannot be observed in an ethically acceptable manner. We propose a statistical method to indirectly infer this time in a progressive three-state disease model using surveillance data.Methods: Sixteen models were specified, with and without covariates. Parameters of the parametric time-to-event distributions from the adenoma-free state (AF) to AA and from AA to CRC were estimated simultaneously, by maximizing the likelihood function. Model performance was assessed via simulation. The methodology was applied to a random sample of 878 individuals from a Norwegian adenoma cohort.Results: Estimates of the parameters of the time distributions are consistent and the 95% confidence intervals (CIs) have good coverage. For the Norwegian sample (AF: 78%, AA: 20%, CRC: 2%), a Weibull model for both transition times was selected as the final model based on information criteria. The mean time among those who have made the transition to CRC since AA onset within 50 years was estimated to be 4.80 years (95% CI: 0; 7.61). The 5-year and 10-year cumulative incidence of CRC from AA was 13.8% (95% CI: 7.8%;23.8%) and 15.4% (95% CI: 8.2%;34.0%), respectively.Conclusions: The time-dependent risk from AA to CRC is crucial to explain differences in the outcomes of microsimulation models used for the optimization of CRC prevention. Our method allows for improving models by the inclusion of data-driven time distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Metamodeling may substantially reduce the computational expense of individual-level state transition simulation models (IL-STM) for calibration, uncertainty quantification, and health policy evaluation. However, because of the lack of guidance and readily available computer code, metamodels are still not widely used in health economics and public health. In this study, we provide guidance on how to choose a metamodel for uncertainty quantification. Methods: We built a simulation study to evaluate the prediction accuracy and computational expense of metamodels for uncertainty quantification using life-years gained (LYG) by treatment as the IL-STM outcome. We analyzed how metamodel accuracy changes with the characteristics of the simulation model using a linear model (LM), Gaussian process regression (GP), generalized additive models (GAMs), and artificial neural networks (ANNs). Finally, we tested these metamodels in a case study consisting of a probabilistic analysis of a lung cancer IL-STM. Results: In a scenario with low uncertainty in model parameters (i.e., small confidence interval), sufficient numbers of simulated life histories, and simulation model runs, commonly used metamodels (LM, ANNs, GAMs, and GP) have similar, good accuracy, with errors smaller than 1% for predicting LYG. With a higher level of uncertainty in model parameters, the prediction accuracy of GP and ANN is superior to LM. In the case study, we found that in the worst case, the best metamodel had an error of about 2.1%. Conclusion: To obtain good prediction accuracy, in an efficient way, we recommend starting with LM, and if the resulting accuracy is insufficient, we recommend trying ANNs and eventually also GP regression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND : The European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) has developed a core curriculum for high quality optical diagnosis training for practice across Europe. The development of easy-to-measure competence standards for optical diagnosis can optimize clinical decision-making in endoscopy. This manuscript represents an official Position Statement of the ESGE aiming to define simple, safe, and easy-to-measure competence standards for endoscopists and artificial intelligence systems performing optical diagnosis of diminutive colorectal polyps (1 - 5 mm). METHODS : A panel of European experts in optical diagnosis participated in a modified Delphi process to reach consensus on Simple Optical Diagnosis Accuracy (SODA) competence standards for implementation of the optical diagnosis strategy for diminutive colorectal polyps. In order to assess the clinical benefits and harms of implementing optical diagnosis with different competence standards, a systematic literature search was performed. This was complemented with the results from a recently performed simulation study that provides guidance for setting alternative competence standards for optical diagnosis. Proposed competence standards were based on literature search and simulation study results. Competence standards were accepted if at least 80 % agreement was reached after a maximum of three voting rounds. RECOMMENDATION 1:  In order to implement the leave-in-situ strategy for diminutive colorectal lesions (1-5 mm), it is clinically acceptable if, during real-time colonoscopy, at least 90 % sensitivity and 80 % specificity is achieved for high confidence endoscopic characterization of colorectal neoplasia of 1-5 mm in the rectosigmoid. Histopathology is used as the gold standard.Level of agreement 95 %. RECOMMENDATION 2:  In order to implement the resect-and-discard strategy for diminutive colorectal lesions (1-5 mm), it is clinically acceptable if, during real-time colonoscopy, at least 80 % sensitivity and 80 % specificity is achieved for high confidence endoscopic characterization of colorectal neoplasia of 1-5 mm. Histopathology is used as the gold standard.Level of agreement 100 %. CONCLUSION : The developed SODA competence standards define diagnostic performance thresholds in relation to clinical consequences, for training and for use when auditing the optical diagnosis of diminutive colorectal polyps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To explore the potential value of consensus molecular subtypes (CMS) in stage II colon cancer treatment selection, we carried out an early cost-effectiveness assessment of a CMS-based strategy for adjuvant chemotherapy. Methods: We used a Markov cohort model to evaluate three selection strategies: (i) the Dutch guideline strategy (MSS+pT4), (ii) the mutation-based strategy (MSS plus a BRAF and/or KRAS mutation or MSS plus pT4), and (iii) the CMS-based strategy (CMS4 or pT4). Outcomes were number of colon cancer deaths per 1,000 patients, total discounted costs per patient (pp), and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) pp. The analyses were conducted from a Dutch societal perspective. The robustness of model predictions was assessed in sensitivity analyses. To evaluate the value of future research, we performed a value of information (VOI) analysis. Results: The Dutch guideline strategy resulted in 8.10 QALYs pp and total costs of €23,660 pp. The CMS-based and mutation-based strategies were more effective and more costly, with 8.12 and 8.13 QALYs pp and €24,643 and €24,542 pp, respectively. Assuming a threshold of €50,000/QALY, the mutation-based strategy was considered as the optimal strategy in an incremental analysis. However, the VOI analysis showed substantial decision uncertainty driven by the molecular markers (expected value of partial perfect information: €18M). Conclusions: On the basis of current evidence, our analyses suggest that the mutation-based selection strategy would be the best use of resources. However, the extensive decision uncertainty for the molecular markers does not allow selection of an optimal strategy at present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Patient's quality of life should be included in clinical decision making regarding the administration of adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) in stage II/III colon cancer. Therefore, quality of life, summarized as health utility (HU), was evaluated for patients treated with and without ACT. Furthermore, the role of chemotherapy–induced peripheral neuropathy (CIPN) on HU was evaluated. Patients diagnosed with stage II/III colon cancer between 2011 and 2019 and participating in the Prospective Dutch ColoRectal Cancer cohort were included (n = 914). HU scores were assessed with the EQ‐5D‐5L at baseline, 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. Patients treated with ACT received mainly capecitabine and oxaliplatin (57%) or capecitabine monotherapy (40%) (average duration: 3.5 months). HU 3 to 18 months after diagnosis (potential ACT period + 12 months follow‐up) was compared between patients treated with and without ACT using a mixed model adjusted for age, sex and education level. Subsequently, the CIPN sensory, motor and autonomy scales, measured using the EORTC QLQ‐CIPN20, were independently included in the model to evaluate the impact of neuropathy. Using a mixed model, a significant difference of −0.039 (95% confidence interval: −0.062; −0.015) in HU was found between patients treated with and without ACT. Including the CIPN sensory, motor and autonomy scales decreased the difference with 0.019, 0.015 and 0.02, respectively. HU 3 to 18 months after diagnosis is significantly lower in patients treated with ACT vs without ACT. This difference is on the boundary of clinical relevance and appears to be partly related to the sensory and motor neuropathy‐related side effects of ACT. What's new? Given its potentially serious side effects, patient quality of life should be included in clinical decision‐making regarding the administration of adjuvant chemotherapy in stage II/III colon cancer. Using a mixed model which was corrected for relevant covariates, here the authors found a statistically‐significant but small decrease in HU of −0.039 during chemotherapy and the following 12 months for patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy compared to patients without adjuvant chemotherapy. The decrease in HU, which is on the boundary of clinical relevance, appears to be partly related to sensory and motor neuropathy side effects of adjuvant chemotherapy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of risk-based strategies to improve the selection of surgically treated stage II colon cancer (CC) patients for adjuvant chemotherapy. Methods: Using the 'Personalized Adjuvant TreaTment in EaRly stage coloN cancer' (PATTERN) model, we evaluated five selection strategies: (1) no chemotherapy, (2) Dutch guideline recommendations assuming observed adherence, (3) Dutch guideline recommendations assuming perfect adherence, (4) biomarker mutation OR pT4 stage strategy in which patients with MSS status combined with a pT4 stage or a mutation in BRAF and/or KRAS receive chemotherapy assuming perfect adherence and (5) biomarker mutation AND pT4 stage strategy in which patients with MSS status combined with a pT4 stage tumor and a BRAF and/or KRAS mutation receive chemotherapy assuming perfect adherence. Outcomes were number of CC deaths per 1000 patients and total discounted costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per patient (pp). Analyses were conducted from a societal perspective. The robustness of model predictions was assessed in sensitivity analyses. Results: The reference strategy, that is, no adjuvant chemotherapy, resulted in 139 CC deaths in a cohort of 1000 patients, 8.077 QALYs pp and total costs of €22,032 pp. Strategies 2–5 were more effective (range 8.094–8.217 QALYs pp and range 118–136 CC deaths per 1000 patients) and more costly (range €22,404–€25,102 pp). Given a threshold of €50,000/QALY, the optimal use of resources would be to treat patients with either the full adherence strategy and biomarker mutation OR pT4 stage strategy. Conclusion: Selection of stage II CC patients for chemotherapy can be improved by either including biomarker status in the selection strategy or by improving adherence to the Dutch guideline recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: After curative treatment of primary non–small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), patients undergo intensive surveillance with the aim to detect recurrences from the primary tumor or metachronous second primary lung cancer as early as possible and improve overall survival. However, the benefit of surveillance is debated. Available evidence is of low quality and conflicting. Microsimulation modeling facilitates the exploration of the impact of different surveillance strategies and provides insight into the cost-effectiveness of surveillance. Methods: A microsimulation model was used to simulate a range of computed tomography (CT)–based surveillance schedules, differing in the frequency and duration of CT surveillance. The impact on survival, quality-adjusted life-years, costs, and cost-effectiveness of each schedule was assessed. Results: Ten of 108 strategies formed the cost-effectiveness frontier; that is, these were the strategies with the optimal cost-health benefit balance. Per person, the discounted QALYs of these strategies varied between 5.72 and 5.81 y, and discounted costs varied between €9892 and €19,259. Below a willingness-to-pay threshold of €50,000/QALY, no scanning is the preferred option. For a willingness-to-pay threshold of €80,000/QALY, surveillance scanning every 2 y starting 1 y after curative treatment becomes the best option, with €11,860 discounted costs and 5.76 discounted QALYs per person. The European Society for Medical Oncology guideline strategy was more expensive and less effective than several other strategies. Conclusion: Model simulations suggest that limited CT surveillance scanning after the treatment of primary NSCLC is cost-effective, but the incremental health-benefit remains marginal. However, model simulations do suggest that the guideline strategy is not cost-effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Population-based metastatic recurrence rates for patients diagnosed with nonmetastatic colorectal cancer cannot be estimated directly from population-based cancer registries because recurrence information is not reported. We derived population-based colorectal cancer recurrence rates using disease-specific survival data based on our understanding of the colorectal cancer recurrence-death process. Methods: We used a statistical continuous-time multistate survival model to derive population-based annual colorectal cancer recurrence rates from 6 months to 10 years after colorectal cancer diagnosis using relative survival data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. The model was based on the assumption that, after 6 months of diagnosis, all colorectal cancer-related deaths occur only in patients who experience a metastatic recurrence first, and that the annual colorectal cancer-specific death rate among patients with recurrence was the same as in those diagnosed with de novo metastatic disease. We allowed recurrence rates to vary by post-diagnosis time, age, stage, and location for two diagnostic time periods. Results: In patients diagnosed in 1975-1984, annual recurrence rates 6 months to 5 years after diagnosis ranged from 0.054 to 0.060 in stage II colon cancer, 0.094 to 0.105 in stage II rectal cancer, and 0.146 to 0.177 in stage III colorectal cancer, depending on age. We found a statistically significant decrease in colorectal cancer recurrence among patients diagnosed in 1994-2003 compared with those diagnosed in 1975-1984 for 6 months to 5 years after diagnosis (hazard ratios between 0.43 and 0.70). Conclusions: We derived population-based annual recurrence rates for up to 10 years after diagnosis using relative survival data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Our aim was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of 3 months' adjuvant chemotherapy versus 6 months in high-risk (T4 stage + microsatellite stable) stage II colon cancer (CC) patients. Methods: Using the validated PATTERN Markov cohort model, which simulates the disease progression of stage II CC patients from diagnosis to death, we first evaluated a reference strategy in which high-risk patients were treated with chemotherapy for 6 months. In the second strategy, treatment duration was shortened to 3 months. Both strategies were evaluated for CAPOX (capecitabine plus oxaliplatin) and FOLFOX (fluorouracil, leucovorin and oxaliplatin). Based on trial data, we assumed that shortened treatment duration compared with a 6-month regimen was equally effective for CAPOX and less effective for FOLFOX. Adverse events were highest in the 6-month strategy. Analyses were conducted from a societal perspective using a lifelong time horizon. Outcomes were number of CC deaths per 1000 patients and total discounted costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per patient (pp). Incremental net monetary benefit (iNMB) was calculated using a willingness-to-pay value of €50,000/QALY. Results: For CAPOX, the 6-month strategy resulted in 316 CC deaths per 1000 patients, 6.71 QALYs pp and total costs of €41,257 pp. The 3-month strategy resulted in an equal number of CC deaths, but higher QALYs (6.80 pp) and lower costs (€37,645 pp), leading to a iNMB of €8454 per person for 3 months versus 6 months. For FOLFOX, the 6-month strategy resulted in 316 CC deaths per 1000 patients, 6.71 QALYs pp and total costs of €47,135 pp. The 3-month strategy resulted in more CC deaths (393), lower QALYs (6.19 pp) and lower costs (€44,389 pp). An iNMB of −€23,189 was found for 3 months versus 6 months. Conclusion: Our findings indicate that 3 months' adjuvant chemotherapy should be considered as standard of care in high-risk stage II CC patients for CAPOX, but not for FOLFOX. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. This study aimed to assess the validity of 2 microsimulation models of colorectal cancer (CRC), Policy1-Bowel and ASCCA. Methods. The model-estimated CRC risk in population subgroups with different health statuses, "dwell time" (time from incident precancerous polyp to symptomatically detected CRC), and reduction in symptomatically detected CRC incidence after a one-time complete removal of polyps and/or undetected CRC were compared with published findings from 3 well-established models (MISCAN, CRC-SPIN, and SimCRC). Furthermore, 6 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that provided screening using a guaiac fecal occult blood test (Funen trial, Burgundy trial, and Minnesota Colon Cancer Control Study [MCCCS]) or flexible sigmoidoscopy (NORCCAP, SCORE, and UKFSST) with long-term follow-up were simulated. Model-estimated long-term relative reductions of CRC incidence (RR inc ) and mortality (RR mort ) were compared with the RCTs' findings. Results. The Policy1-Bowel and ASCCA estimates showed more similarities to CRC-SPIN and SimCRC. For example, overall dwell times estimated by Policy1-Bowel (24.0 years) and ASCCA (25.3) were comparable to CRC-SPIN (25.8) and SimCRC (25.2) but higher than MISCAN (10.6). In addition, ∼86% of Policy1-Bowel 's and ∼74% of ASCCA 's estimated RR inc and RR mort were consistent with the RCTs' long-term follow-up findings. For example, at 17 to 18 years of follow-up, the MCCCS reported RR mort of 0.67 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.51–0.83) and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.62–0.97) for the annual and biennial screening arm, respectively, and the UKFSST reported RR mort of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.62–0.79) for CRC at all sites and 0.54 (95% CI, 0.46–0.65) for distal CRC. The corresponding model estimates were 0.65, 0.74, 0.81, and 0.61, respectively, for Policy1-Bowel and 0.65, 0.70, 0.75, and 0.58, respectively, for ASCCA. Conclusion. Policy1-Bowel and ASCCA 's estimates are largely consistent with the data included for comparisons, which indicates good model validity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer worldwide. Accurately identifying stage II CRC patients at risk for recurrence is an unmet clinical need. KCNQ1 was previously identified as a tumour suppressor gene and loss of expression was associated with poor survival in patients with CRC liver metastases. In this study the prognostic value of KCNQ1 in stage II and stage III colon cancer patients was examined.Methods: KCNQ1 mRNA expression was assessed in 90 stage II colon cancer patients (AMC-AJCCII-90) using microarray gene expression data. Subsequently, KCNQ1 protein expression was evaluated in an independent cohort of 386 stage II and stage III colon cancer patients by immunohistochemistry of tissue microarrays.Results: Low KCNQ1 mRNA expression in stage II microsatellite stable (MSS) colon cancers was associated with poor disease-free survival (DFS) (P=0.025). Loss of KCNQ1 protein expression from epithelial cells was strongly associated with poor DFS in stage II MSS (P<0.0001), stage III MSS (P=0.0001) and stage III microsatellite instable colon cancers (P=0.041). KCNQ1 seemed an independent prognostic value in addition to other high-risk parameters like angio-invasion, nodal stage and microsatellite instability-status.Conclusions: We conclude that KCNQ1 is a promising biomarker for prediction of disease recurrence and may aid stratification of patients with stage II MSS colon cancer for adjuvant chemotherapy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) is rolling out 2-yearly immunochemical fecal occult blood test screening in people aged 50 to 74 years. This study aimed to evaluate the benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of extending the NBCSP to younger and/or older ages. Methods: A comprehensive validated microsimulation model, Policy1-Bowel, was used to simulate the fully rolled-out NBCSP and alternative strategies assuming screening starts at 40 or 45 years and/or ceases at 79 or 84 years given three scenarios: (i) perfect adherence (100%), (ii) high adherence (60%), and (ii) low adherence (40%, as currently achieved). Results: The current NBCSP will reduce colorectal cancer incidence (mortality) by 23% to 51% (36% to 74%) compared with no screening (range reflects participation); extending screening to younger or older ages would result in additional reductions of 2 to 6 (2 to 9) or 1 to 3 (3 to 7) percentage points, respectively. With an indicative willingness-to-pay threshold of A$50,000/life-year saved (LYS), only screening from 50 to 74 years [incremental cost-effective ratio (ICER): A$2,984-5,981/LYS) or from 45 to 74 years (ICER: A$17,053-29,512/LYS) remained cost-effective in all participation scenarios. The number-needed-to-colonoscope to prevent a death over the lifetime of a cohort in the current NBCSP is 35 to 49. Starting screening at 45 years would increase colonoscopy demand for program-related colonoscopies by 3% to 14% and be associated with 55 to 170 additional colonoscopies per additional death prevented. Conclusions: Starting screening at 45 years could be cost-effective, but it would increase colonoscopy demand and would be associated with a less favorable incremental benefits-to-harms trade-off than screening from 50 to 74 years. Impact: The study underpins recently updated Australian colorectal cancer management guidelines that recommend that the NBCSP continues to offer bowel screening from 50 to 74 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) will fully roll‐out 2‐yearly screening using the immunochemical Faecal Occult Blood Testing (iFOBT) in people aged 50 to 74 years by 2020. In this study, we aimed to estimate the comparative health benefits, harms, and cost‐effectiveness of screening with iFOBT, versus other potential alternative or adjunctive technologies. A comprehensive validated microsimulation model, Policy1‐Bowel, was used to simulate a total of 13 screening approaches involving use of iFOBT, colonoscopy, sigmoidoscopy, computed tomographic colonography (CTC), faecal DNA (fDNA) and plasma DNA (pDNA), in people aged 50 to 74 years. All strategies were evaluated in three scenarios: (i) perfect adherence, (ii) high (but imperfect) adherence, and (iii) low adherence. When assuming perfect adherence, the most effective strategies involved using iFOBT (annually, or biennially with/without adjunct sigmoidoscopy either at 50, or at 54, 64 and 74 years for individuals with negative iFOBT), or colonoscopy (10‐yearly, or once‐off at 50 years combined with biennial iFOBT). Colorectal cancer incidence (mortality) reductions for these strategies were 51–67(74–80)% in comparison with no screening; 2‐yearly iFOBT screening (i.e. the NBCSP) would be associated with reductions of 51(74)%. Only 2‐yearly iFOBT screening was found to be cost‐effective in all scenarios in context of an indicative willingness‐to‐pay threshold of A$50,000/life‐year saved (LYS); this strategy was associated with an incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio of A$2,984/LYS–A$5,981/LYS (depending on adherence). The fully rolled‐out NBCSP is highly cost‐effective, and is also one of the most effective approaches for bowel cancer screening in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Meaning-centered group psychotherapy for cancer survivors (MCGP-CS) improves meaning, psychological well-being, and mental adjustment to cancer and reduces psychological distress. This randomized controlled trial was conducted to investigate the cost-utility of MCGP-CS compared with supportive group psychotherapy (SGP) and care-as-usual (CAU).Methods: In total, 170 patients were randomized to MCGP-CS, SGP, or CAU. Intervention costs, direct medical and nonmedical costs, productivity losses, and health-related quality of life were measured until 6 months follow-up, using the TIC-P, PRODISQ, data from the hospital information system, and the EQ-5D. The cost-utility was calculated by comparing mean cumulative costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs).Results: Mean total costs ranged from €4492 (MCGP-CS) to €5304 (CAU). Mean QALYs ranged .507 (CAU) to .540 (MCGP-CS). MCGP-CS had a probability of 74% to be both less costly and more effective than CAU, and 49% compared with SGP. Sensitivity analyses showed these findings are robust. If society is willing to pay €0 for one gained QALY, MCGP-CS has a 78% probability of being cost-effective compared with CAU. This increases to 85% and 92% at willingness-to-pay thresholds of €10 000 and €30 000, which are commonly accepted thresholds.Conclusions: MCGP-CS is highly likely a cost-effective intervention, meaning that there is a positive balance between the costs and gains of MCGP-CS, in comparison with SGP and CAU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims/hypothesis: Glycaemic markers and fasting insulin are frequently measured outcomes of intervention studies. To extrapolate accurately the impact of interventions on the risk of diabetes incidence, we investigated the size and shape of the associations of fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2 h post-load glucose (2hPG), HbA, fasting insulin and HOMA-IR with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. Methods: The study population included 1349 participants aged 50-75 years without diabetes at baseline (1989) from a population-based cohort in Hoorn, the Netherlands. Incident type 2 diabetes was defined by the WHO 2011 criteria or known diabetes at follow-up. Logistic regression models were used to determine the associations of the glycaemic markers, fasting insulin and HOMA-IR with incident type 2 diabetes. Restricted cubic spline logistic regressions were conducted to investigate the shape of the associations. Results: After a mean follow-up duration of 6.4 (SD 0.5) years, 152 participants developed diabetes (11.3%); the majority were screen detected by high FPG. In multivariate adjusted models, ORs (95% CI) for incident type 2 diabetes for the highest quintile in comparison with the lowest quintile were 9.0 (4.4, 18.5) for FPG, 6.1 (2.9, 12.7) for 2hPG, 3.8 (2.0, 7.2) for HbA, 1.9 (0.9, 3.6) for fasting insulin and 2.8 (1.4, 5.6) for HOMA-IR. The associations of FPG and HbA with incident diabetes were non-linear, rising more steeply at higher values. Conclusions/interpretation: FPG was most strongly associated with incident diabetes, followed by 2hPG, HbA, HOMA-IR and fasting insulin. The strong association with FPG is probably because FPG is the most frequent marker for diabetes diagnosis. Non-linearity of associations between glycaemic markers and incident type 2 diabetes should be taken into account when estimating future risk of type 2 diabetes based on glycaemic markers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]