Search

Mapping volcanic flow deposits can be achieved by considering backscattering characteristics as a metric of surface roughness. In this study, we developed an approach to extract a measure of surface roughness from dual-band airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) backscattering data to characterize and map various volcanic flow deposits—namely, debris avalanches, lahars, lava flows, and pyroclastic density currents. We employed ASAR and Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) airborne SAR datasets, from a joint project (ASAR-ISRO), acquired in December 2019 at 2 m spatial resolution, to assess the role and importance of incorporating dual-band data, i.e., L-band and S-band, into surface roughness models. Additionally, we derived and analyzed surface roughness from a digital surface model (DSM) generated from unoccupied aircraft systems (UAS) acquisitions using Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry techniques. These UAS-derived surface roughness outputs served as meter-scale calibration products to validate the radar roughness data over targeted areas. Herein, we applied our method to a region in the United States over the Mount St. Helens volcano in the Cascade Range of Washington state. Our results showed that dual-band systems can be utilized to characterize different types of volcanic deposits and range of terrain roughness. Importantly, we found that a combination of radar wavelengths (i.e., 9 and 24 cm), in tandem with high-spatial-resolution backscatter measurements, yields improved surface roughness maps, compared to single-band, satellite-based approaches at coarser resolution. The L-band (24 cm) can effectively differentiate small, medium, and large-scale structures, namely, blocks/boulders from fine-grained lahar deposits and hummocks from debris avalanche deposits. Additionally, variation in the roughness estimates of lahar and debris avalanche deposits can be identified and quantified individually. In contrast, the S-band (9 cm) can distinguish different soil moisture conditions across variable terrain; for example, identify wet active channels. In principle, this dual-band approach can also be employed with time series of various other SAR data of higher coherence (such as satellite SAR), using different wavelengths and polarizations, encompassing a wider range of surface roughness, and ultimately enabling additional applications at other volcanoes worldwide and even beyond volcanology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cerro Negro volcano, Nicaragua, continued a 147-yr-long duration of cinder-cone activity with a major eruption in 1995. Small, phreatically driven eruptions began in May 1995 and continued for 79 days. Following a 95 day repose, the main eruption produced 8 x [10.sup.6] [m.sup.3] of basalt from Cerro Negro over 13 days of activity and deposited 5 mm of ash in the city of Leon. Although the damage from the 1995 eruptions was fortunately minor, previous tephra falls from Cerro Negro have produced significant crop damage and multiple deaths through building collapse. In spite of its apparent longevity for a historically active cinder cone, Cerro Negro has mass-flow rates typical of arc-related basaltic cinder cone volcanoes. Volcanic hazards beyond 3 km from Cerro Negro consist of tephra falls. Few models are available to calculate tephra-fall risks from basaltic volcanoes such as Cerro Negro, and none have been applied to dispersive cinder cone eruptions. A convective-dispersive model of Suzuki is modified and evaluated using detailed data from the 1995 Cerro Negro eruption and is found to reasonably calculate tephra-fall thickness between 8 and 30 km from the vent. This model is used with detailed data from previous Cerro Negro eruptions in a tephra-fall hazard assessment. Cerro Negro also appears to have had a steady-state eruption rate since about A.D. 1900, which is used to estimate the timing of the next eruption as before A.D. 2006. The potential tephra fall from Cerro Negro in Leon, Nicaragua, is calculated as 2.2 mm/yr until 2006, with 95% confidence that deposits will be

Variation in spatial density of Quaternary volcanic vents, and the occurrence of vent clusters, correlates with boundaries in Proterozoic crust in the Springerville volcanic field (SVF), Arizona, USA. Inverse modeling using 538 gravity measurements shows that vent clusters correlate with gradients in the gravity field due to lateral variation in crustal density. These lateral discontinuities in the crustal density can be explained by boundaries in the North American crust formed during Proterozoic accretion. Spatial density of volcanic vents is low in regions of high-density Proterozoic crust, high in areas of relatively low density Proterozoic crust, and is greatest adjacent to crustal boundaries. Vent alignments parallel these boundaries. We have developed 2-D and 3-D numerical models of magma ascent through the crust to simulate long-term, average magma migration that led to the development of vent clusters in the SVF, assuming that a viscous fluid flow through a porous media is statistically equivalent to magma migration averaged over geological time in the full field scale. The location and flux from the uniform magma source region are boundary conditions of the model. Changes in model diffusivity, associated with changes in the bulk properties of the lithosphere, can simulate preferential magma migration paths and alter estimated magma flux at the surface, implying that large-scale crustal structures, such as inherited tectonic block boundaries, influence magma ascent and clustering of volcanic vents. Probabilistic models of volcanic hazard for distributed volcanic fields can be improved by identifying crustal structures and assessing their impact on volcano distribution with the use of numerical models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The volcanic ash or 'tephra' cloud resulting from the relatively small (volume and VEI) eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 caused major air travel disruption, at substantial global economic cost. On several occasions in the past few centuries, Icelandic eruptions have created ash and/or sulphur dioxide clouds which were detected over Europe (e.g. Hekla in 1947, Askja in 1875, and Laki in 1783). However, these historical observations do not represent a complete record of events serious enough to disrupt aviation in Europe. The only feasible evidence for this is within the geological tephra record. Ash layers are preserved in bogs and lakes where tephra deposited from the atmosphere is incorporated in the peat/mud. In this article we: 1, introduce the analysis of the Northern European sedimentary tephra record; 2, discuss our findings and modelling results; 3, highlight how these were misinterpreted by the popular media; and 4, use this experience to outline several existing problems with current tephra studies and suggest agendas for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We mapped 63 conduits, ~2000 dike segments, and 12 sills in the San Rafael subvolcanic field, Utah (United States), where this Pliocene magmatic system is eroded to a depth of ~0.8 km and is exceptionally well exposed. Although the number of mapped conduits, dikes, and sills might represent minimums, depending on the level of erosion and exposure, mapped dikes are more numerous around the areally extensive sills and interact with sills and conduits in complex ways. We analyze conduit distribution using kernel density methods and compare results with dike and sill distribution. We find that the distribution of conduits matches the major features of dike distribution, including development of clusters and distribution of outliers. These statistical models are then applied to the distributions of volcanoes in several recently active volcanic fields, where intrusion distributions must be inferred from very sparse data, and compared with San Rafael conduit distribution. This comparison supports the use of statistical models in probabilistic hazard assessment for distributed volcanism. Specifically, renewed dike intrusion and potential eruptions in active basaltic systems can be assessed probabilistically from the distribution of older volcanoes in distributed volcanic systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment is to translate complex volcanological data and numerical models into practical hazard estimates for communities potentially affected by volcanic eruptions. Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment quantifies volcanic hazards and illustrates uncertainties about the magnitude and consequences of volcanic activity. Planning based on probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment has the potential of mitigating the effects of volcanic eruptions when they occur. This paper presents an approach developed to estimate volcanic hazards related to tephra fallout and illustrates this approach with a tephra fallout hazard assessment for the city of Leo´n, Nicaragua, and the surrounding area. Tephra fallout from eruptions of Cerro Negro volcano has caused damage to property and adverse health effects and has disrupted life in this area. By summarizing the geologic and historical records of past eruptions of Cerro Negro on a probability tree, it is shown that the inhabitants of Leo´n can expect >1 cm of tephra accumulation from approximately 30% of eruptions, and >4 cm of tephra accumulation from approximately 9% of eruptions of Cerro Negro volcano. This historical record is augmented with simulations of tephra dispersion that estimate the likelihood of tephra accumulation given a range of eruption magnitudes and that map the expected distribution of tephra over a broader region. An upper limit value of 0.5 m is calculated using the tephra dispersion model. Without a fundamental change in the eruptive behavior of Cerro Negro, tephra accumulation in Leo´n is not expected to exceed this value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human-induced climate change is causing rapid melting of ice in many volcanically active regions. Over glacial-interglacial time scales changes in surface loading exerted by large variations in glacier size affect the rates of volcanic activity. Numerical models suggest that smaller changes in ice volume over shorter time scales may also influence rates of mantle melt generation. However, this effect has not been verified in the geological record. Furthermore, the time lag between climatic forcing and a resultant change in the frequency of volcanic eruptions is unknown. We present empirical evidence that the frequency of volcanic eruptions in Iceland was affected by glacial extent, modulated by climate, on multicentennial time scales during the Holocene. We examine the frequency of volcanic ash deposition over northern Europe and compare this with Icelandic eruptions. We identify a period of markedly reduced volcanic activity centered on 5.5-4.5 ka that was preceded by a major change in atmospheric circulation patterns, expressed in the North Atlantic as a deepening of the Icelandic Low, favoring glacial advance on Iceland. We calculate an apparent time lag of ~600 yr between the climate event and change in eruption frequency. Given the time lag identified here, increase in volcanic eruptions due to ongoing deglaciation since the end of the Little Ice Age may not become apparent for hundreds of years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ash cloud resulting from the A.D. 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland caused severe disruption to air travel across Europe, but as a geological event it is not unprecedented. Analysis of peats and lake sediments from northern Europe has revealed the presence of microscopic layers of Icelandic volcanic ash (tephra). These sedimentary records, together with historical records of Holocene ash falls, demonstrate that Icelandic volcanoes have generated substantial ash clouds that reached northern Europe many times. Here we present the first comprehensive compilation of sedimentary and historical records of ash-fall events in northern Europe, spanning the past 7000 yr. Ash-fall events appear to have been more frequent in the past 1500 yr. It is unclear whether this reflects a true increase in eruption frequency or dispersal, or is an artifact of the records or the way in which they have been generated. In the past 1000 yr, volcanic ash clouds reached northern Europe with a mean return interval of 56 ± 9 yr (the range of return intervals is between 6 and 115 yr). Probabilistic modeling using the ash records for the last millennium indicates that for any 10 yr period there is a 16% probability of a tephra fallout event in northern Europe. These values must be considered as conservative estimates due to the nature of tephra capture and preservation in the sedimentary record. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]