1. Development of a clinical decision support tool for Primary care Management of lower Urinary tract Symptoms in men: the PriMUS study
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Adrian Edwards, Ridhi Agarwal, Janine Bates, Alison Bray, Sarah Milosevic, Emma Thomas-Jones, Michael Drinnan, Marcus Drake, Peter Michell, Bethan Pell, Haroon Ahmed, Natalie Joseph-Williams, Kerenza Hood, Yemisi Takwoingi, and Chris Harding
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primary care ,urology ,adult urology ,men ,urodynamics ,lower urinary tract symptoms ,diagnostic accuracy ,decision support tool ,qualitative research ,Medical technology ,R855-855.5 - Abstract
Background Lower urinary tract symptoms particularly affect older men and their quality of life. General practitioners currently have no easily available assessment tools to diagnose lower urinary tract symptom causes. Referrals to urology specialists are increasing. General practitioner access to simple, accurate tests and clinical decision tools could facilitate management of lower urinary tract symptoms in primary care. Objectives To determine which of several index tests in combination, best predicted three diagnoses (detrusor overactivity, bladder outlet obstruction and/or detrusor underactivity) in men presenting with lower urinary tract symptoms in primary care. To develop and validate three diagnostic prediction models, and a prototype primary care clinical decision support tool. Design Prospective diagnostic accuracy study. Two participant cohorts, for development and validation, underwent simple index tests and a reference standard (invasive urodynamics). Setting General practices in England and Wales. Participants Men (16 years and over) consulting their general practitioner with lower urinary tract symptoms. Sample size Separate calculations for model development and validation cohorts, from literature estimates of detrusor overactivity, bladder outlet obstruction and detrusor underactivity prevalences of 57%, 31% and 16%, respectively. Predictors and index tests Twelve potential predictors considered for three diagnostic models. Main outcome measures The primary outcome was diagnostic model sensitivity and specificity for detecting bladder outlet obstruction, detrusor underactivity and detrusor overactivity, with 75.0% considered minimum clinically useful performance. Statistical analysis Three separate logistic regression models generated with index test variables to predict the presence of bladder outlet obstruction, detrusor overactivity, detrusor underactivity conditions in men with lower urinary tract symptoms. Results One model each was developed and validated for bladder outlet obstruction and detrusor underactivity, two for detrusor overactivity (detrusor overactivity main, detrusor overactivity sensitivity analysis 2). Age, voiding symptoms subscore, prostate-specific antigen level, median maximum flow rate, median voided volume were predictors for bladder outlet obstruction. Median maximum flow rate and post-void residual volume were predictors for detrusor underactivity. Age, post-void residual volume and median voided volume were included in detrusor overactivity main model, while age and storage symptoms subscore predicted detrusor overactivity sensitivity analysis 2. For all four models, sensitivity of 75.0% could be achieved with a specificity of 74.2%, 47.3%, 45.6% and 46.2% for bladder outlet obstruction, detrusor underactivity, detrusor overactivity main and detrusor overactivity sensitivity analysis 2 models, respectively. Similarly, a specificity of 75.0% could be achieved with a sensitivity of 71.3%, 39.8%, 33.3% and 62.7% for bladder outlet obstruction, detrusor underactivity, detrusor overactivity main and detrusor overactivity sensitivity analysis 2 models, respectively. The prototype tool (not yet intended for use in practice) is available at Primary care Management of lower Urinary tract Symptoms decision aid for lower urinary tract symptoms (shinyapps.io). General practitioner feedback during tool development and small-scale user-testing in simulated consultation scenarios was favourable. Patients supported such management in primary care. Strengths/limitations This was a prospective, multicentre study in an appropriate primary care population. Most of the index tests are possible routinely in primary care or at home by patients. The diagnostic models were validated in a separate cohort from the same population. Limitations include that target condition prevalences may differ in other populations. Conclusion We identified sensitivities and specificities of diagnostic models for detrusor overactivity, bladder outlet obstruction and detrusor underactivity in routine United Kingdom practice and developed a prototype clinical decision support tool. Future work Economic modelling, a feasibility trial and powered randomised controlled trial are needed to evaluate the Primary care Management of lower Urinary tract Symptoms tool in practice. Study registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN10327305. Funding This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 15/40/05) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 29, No. 1. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information. Plain language summary Urinary symptoms such as a weak flow and frequent urination are common in older men and often bothersome. Men visiting their general practitioner with these symptoms are often referred to a specialist because good diagnostic tools are not available in primary care. Three common causes of symptoms are: bladder obstruction due to non-cancerous growth of the prostate, reduced power of the bladder muscle and bladder overactivity. We aimed to create a tool to help general practitioners manage men with urinary symptoms. This required first to develop mathematical models, which combined results from several simple tests that general practitioners could organise. The web-based tool then constructed would indicate the most likely diagnosis and provide recommendations for treating and managing the condition. The tests included prostate examination, prostate-specific antigen blood test, symptoms questionnaires and home-based urine flow measurements. To develop the mathematical models, 350 men with urinary symptoms underwent the simple tests and a specialist invasive test called urodynamics, which is currently regarded as providing the best diagnosis. A second group of 251 men also had the simple tests and urodynamics. Their results were used to measure the performance of the models. The model to diagnose bladder obstruction performed well (close to the invasive urodynamics ‘gold standard’ test), and those to diagnose reduced power of the bladder muscle and bladder over-activity performed moderately but less well. A prototype version of the web-based tool was developed. We consulted patients and general practitioners to assess the tool’s acceptability. General practitioners confirmed their enthusiasm because they find managing bladder symptoms challenging, and patients said they would prefer to be managed in primary care. We received good feedback about the prototype tool and gained ideas for refining it. Following this project, it would be valuable to estimate the cost, benefits and practicalities of implementing the tool, aided by data from the study, and trial its effectiveness compared with current care. Scientific summary This summary contains text reproduced with permission from Pell et al. Primary care Management of lower Urinary tract Symptoms in men: protocol for development and validation of a diagnostic and clinical decision support tool (the PriMUS study). BMJ Open 2020;10:e037634; Milosevic et al. Conducting invasive urodynamics in primary care: qualitative interview study examining experiences of patients and healthcare professionals. Diagn Progn Res 2021;5:10; and Milosevic et al. Managing lower urinary tract symptoms in primary care: qualitative study of GPs’ and patients’ experiences. Br J Gen Pract 2021;71:E685–92. These are Open Access articles distributed in accordance with the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) licence, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt and build upon this work, for commercial use, provided the original work is properly cited. See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The text below includes minor additions and formatting changes to the original text. Background Lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) particularly affect older men and can lead to poor quality of life, often referred to as the degree of ‘bother’ experienced. General practitioners (GPs) currently have no easily available assessment tools to effectively diagnose the causes of LUTS and aid discussion of treatment with patients. Men are increasingly referred to urology specialists who often recommend treatments that could have been initiated in primary care. GP access to simple, accurate tests and clinical decision tools could facilitate faster and more effective patient management of LUTS in primary care. The reference standard test for investigation of LUTS, and thus diagnosis of detrusor overactivity (DO), bladder outlet obstruction (BOO) and detrusor underactivity (DU), is invasive urodynamics, which takes place in secondary care. However, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines suggest that many men referred to specialist care with LUTS are eventually managed conservatively, and so could have remained within primary care. Further, GPs do not have access to validated clinical decision tools giving an indication of the most likely cause of symptoms to guide treatment and management. Making such a tool available should improve treatment efficacy, standardise treatment, reduce unnecessary referrals, expedite referral of those requiring specialist care, and thus improve cost-effectiveness of NHS care. A primary care-based clinical decision support tool with defined accuracy would, firstly, mean that the men could undergo the necessary simple tests straightaway, organised through the GP surgery and, secondly, would get a quicker result regarding predicted diagnosis and choice of management options that are most likely to be effective. For GPs, a clinical decision support tool could allay uncertainty around both diagnosis and best management. Objectives The primary objectives of the Primary care Management of lower Urinary tract Symptoms (PriMUS) study were to: Develop statistical models to predict the likelihood of each urological condition (BOO, DU and DO), based on a series of non-invasive index tests, with urodynamics as the reference standard. Estimate the diagnostic accuracy of the above models in an independent validation cohort. The study incorporated an internal pilot phase with ‘Stop/go’ criteria that included quantitative and qualitative assessments. The progression criteria were designed to allow for mitigating strategies to be discussed to allow for some adaptation to recruitment processes in the main study. The secondary objectives were to: Develop a series of patient management recommendations and thresholds for clinically useful diagnostic prediction by expert consensus and with reference to current clinical guidelines that map to the diagnoses predicted by the statistical model. Combine the statistical model and management recommendations into an online tool that will form the prototype clinical decision support tool. Complete a qualitative study to explore the feasibility of introducing the clinical decision support tool into primary care, including potential acceptability to primary care staff and patients. Collect NHS costs involved in delivering the new pathway and compare with cost of standard pathway calculated from NHS and other sources. Objectives 1 and 2: development of statistical models and diagnostic accuracy Methods Men presenting to their GP with LUTS were recruited prospectively from GP practices in Bristol, Newcastle upon Tyne and Wales. Participants underwent a series of simple index tests and the invasive reference standard (urodynamics). To determine which index tests used in combination best predicted three urodynamic observations (BOO, DU and DO) in men, diagnostic prediction models were developed for each target condition using logistic regression modelling. Multiple imputation by chain equations was used to handle missing data and fractional polynomial functions were used to fit continuous variables. The discriminative ability of the models was assessed using the c-index, and calibration was assessed using calibration plots and the calibration slope. Internal validation was conducted to assess optimism of the performance statistics using the bootstrapping procedure. External validation was conducted to assess model performance in another sample from a similar population as the development cohort. In both forms of validation, the models were recalibrated using the calibration slope as a shrinkage factor to re-estimate the intercept and model coefficients. Sensitivity and specificity were plotted on a receiver operating characteristic plot for each model. Risk thresholds were identified at a sensitivity and specificity of 75%, which was deemed to be the minimum clinically useful performance. Sensitivity analyses were performed by fitting two alternative models for each target condition. In sensitivity analysis 1, predictors that may be difficult to obtain in practice were excluded from the list of candidate predictors (mean urgency score and mean 24-hour fluid intake from the bladder diary) and in sensitivity analysis 2 (SA2), alternative measures or methods of measurement of candidate predictors were considered. Results Between March 2018 and June 2022, 350 and 251 men were respectively recruited into the development and validation cohorts. In the development cohort (median age 69), 163 (46.6%), 141 (40.3%) and 253 (72.3%) participants were diagnosed with BOO, DU and DO, respectively. In the validation cohort (median age 67), 112 (44.6%), 87 (34.7%) and 166 (66.1%) participants were diagnosed with BOO, DU and DO, respectively. Two models were developed and validated for DO (DO main and DO SA2), while one model each was developed and validated for BOO (BOO model 3) and DU. Age (participant demographics), voiding symptoms subscore (International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire – male LUTS questionnaire), prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test result (blood test), median maximum flow rate (uroflowmetry) and median voided volume (uroflowmetry) were predictors for BOO. Median maximum flow rate and post-void residual volume (bladder ultrasound) were predictors for DU. Age, post-void residual volume and median voided volume were included in DO main model, while age and storage symptoms subscore (International Prostate Symptom Score questionnaire) were predictors in DO SA2 model. Bladder outlet obstruction model 3 demonstrated good discriminative performance with an optimism-corrected c-index of 0.80. The models for DU, DO main and DO SA2 demonstrated moderate discriminative ability with an optimism-corrected c-index of respectively 0.64, 0.67 and 0.65. Similar estimates of c-index were observed for each model with the validation cohort. The optimism-corrected calibration slope for each model was
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- 2025
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