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Several European directives and regulations address the environmental risk assessment of chemicals. We used the protection of freshwater ecosystems against plant protection products, biocidal products, human and veterinary pharmaceuticals, and other chemicals and priority substances under the Water Framework Directive as examples to explore the potential of ecological effect models for a refined risk assessment. Our analysis of the directives, regulations, and related guidance documents lead us to distinguish the following 5 areas for the application of ecological models in chemical risk assessment: 1) Extrapolation of organism-level effects to the population level: The protection goals are formulated in general terms, e.g., avoiding “unacceptable effects” or “adverse impact” on the environment or the “viability of exposed species.” In contrast, most of the standard ecotoxicological tests provide data only on organism-level endpoints and are thus not directly linked to the protection goals which focus on populations and communities. 2) Extrapolation of effects between different exposure profiles: Especially for plant protection products, exposure profiles can be very variable and impossible to cover in toxicological tests. 3) Extrapolation of recovery processes: As a consequence of the often short-term exposures to plant protection products, the risk assessment is based on the community recovery principle. On the other hand, assessments under the other directives assume a more or less constant exposure and are based on the ecosystem threshold principle. 4) Analysis and prediction of indirect effects: Because effects on 1 or a few taxa might have consequences on other taxa that are not directly affected by the chemical, such indirect effects on communities have to be considered. 5) Prediction of bioaccumulation within food chains: All directives take the possibility of bioaccumulation, and thus secondary poisoning within the food chain, into account. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2010;6:325–337. © 2010 SETAC [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The idea that noncrop habitat enhances pest control and represents a win-win opportunity to conserve biodiversity and bolster yields has emerged as an agroecological paradigm. However, while noncrop habitat in landscapes surrounding farms sometimes benefits pest predators, natural enemy responses remain heterogeneous across studies and effects on pests are inconclusive. The observed heterogeneity in species responses to noncrop habitat may be biological in origin or could result from variation in how habitat and biocontrol are measured. Here, we use a pest-control database encompassing 132 studies and 6,759 sites worldwide to model natural enemy and pest abundances, predation rates, and crop damage as a function of landscape composition. Our results showed that although landscape composition explained significant variation within studies, pest and enemy abundances, predation rates, crop damage, and yields each exhibited different responses across studies, sometimes increasing and sometimes decreasing in landscapes with more noncrop habitat but overall showing no consistent trend. Thus, models that used landscape-composition variables to predict pest-control dynamics demonstrated little potential to explain variation across studies, though prediction did improve when comparing studies with similar crop and landscape features. Overall, our work shows that surrounding noncrop habitat does not consistently improve pest management, meaning habitat conservation may bolster production in some systems and depress yields in others. Future efforts to develop tools that inform farmers when habitat conservation truly represents a win-win would benefit from increased understanding of how landscape effects are modulated by local farm management and the biology of pests and their enemies., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Many goose species feed on agricultural land, and with growing goose numbers, conflicts with agriculture are increasing. One possible solution is to designate refuge areas where farmers are paid to leave geese undisturbed. Here, we present a generic modelling tool that can be used to designate the best locations for refuges and to gauge the area needed to accommodate the geese. With a species distribution model, locations are ranked according to goose suitability. The size of the area to be designated as refuge can be chosen by including more or less suitable locations. A resource depletion model is then used to estimate whether enough resources are available within the designated refuge to accommodate all geese, taking into account the dynamics of food resources, including depletion by geese. We illustrate this with the management scheme for pink-footed goose Anser brachyrhynchus implemented in Norway. Here, all geese can be accommodated, but damage levels appear to depend on weather, land use and refuge size.

Estimating the exposure of honeybees to pesticides on a landscape scale requires models of their spatial foraging behaviour. For this purpose, we developed a mechanistic, energetics-based model for a single day of nectar foraging in complex landscape mosaics. Net energetic efficiency determined resource patch choice. In one version of the model a single optimal patch was selected each hour. In another version, recruitment of foragers was simulated and several patches could be exploited simultaneously. Resource availability changed during the day due to depletion and/or intrinsic properties of the resource (anthesis). The model accounted for the impact of patch distance and size, resource depletion and replenishment, competition with other nectar foragers, and seasonal and diurnal patterns in availability of nectar-providing crops and wild flowers. From the model we derived simple rules for resource patch selection, e.g., for landscapes with mass-flowering crops only, net energetic efficiency would be proportional to the ratio of the energetic content of the nectar divided by distance to the hive. We also determined maximum distances at which resources like oilseed rape and clover were still energetically attractive. We used the model to assess the potential for pesticide exposure dilution in landscapes of different composition and complexity. Dilution means a lower concentration in nectar arriving at the hive compared to the concentration in nectar at a treated field and can result from foraging effort being diverted away from treated fields. Applying the model for all possible hive locations over a large area, distributions of dilution factors were obtained that were characterised by their 90-percentile value. For an area for which detailed spatial data on crops and off-field semi-natural habitats were available, we tested three landscape management scenarios that were expected to lead to exposure dilution: providing alternative resources than the target crop (oilseed rape) in the form of (i) other untreated crop fields, (ii) flower strips of different widths at field edges (off-crop in-field resources), and (iii) resources on off-field (semi-natural) habitats. For both model versions, significant dilution occurred only when alternative resource patches were equal or more attractive than oilseed rape, nearby and numerous and only in case of flower strips and off-field habitats. On an area-base, flower strips were more than one order of magnitude more effective than off-field habitats, the main reason being that flower strips had an optimal location. The two model versions differed in the predicted number of resource patches exploited over the day, but mainly in landscapes with numerous small resource patches. In landscapes consisting of few large resource patches (crop fields) both versions predicted the use of a small number of patches.

Models can be used to assess long-term risks of sediment-bound contaminants at the population level. However, these models usually lack the coupling between chemical fate in the sediment, toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic processes in individuals and propagation of individual-level effects to the population. We developed a population model that includes all these processes, and used it to assess the importance of chemical uptake routes on a Chironomus riparius population after pulsed exposure to the pesticide chlorpyrifos. We show that particle ingestion is an important additional exposure pathway affecting C. riparius population dynamics and recovery. Models ignoring particle ingestion underestimate the impact and the required recovery times, which implies that they underestimate risks of sediment-bound chemicals. Additional scenario studies showed the importance of selecting the biologically relevant sediment layer and showed population effects in the long term., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Population viability of a single species, when evaluated with metapopulation based landscape evaluation tools, always increases when the connectivity of the landscape increases. However, when interactions between species are taken into account, results can differ. We explore this issue using a stochastic spatially explicit meta-community model with 21 competing species in five different competitive settings: (1) weak, coexisting competition, (2) neutral competition, (3) strong, excluding competition, (4) hierarchical competition and (5) random species competition. The species compete in randomly generated landscapes with various fragmentation levels. With this model we study species loss over time. Simulation results show that overall diversity, the species richness in the entire landscape, decreases slowly in fragmented landscapes whereas in well-connected landscapes rapid species losses occur. These results are robust with respect to changing competitive settings, species parameters and spatial configurations. They indicate that optimal landscape configuration for species conservation differs between metapopulation approaches, modelling species separately and meta-community approaches allowing species interactions. The mechanism behind this is that species in well-connected landscapes rapidly outcompete each other. Species that become abundant, by chance or by their completive strength, send out large amounts of dispersers that colonize and take over other patches that are occupied by species that are less abundant. This mechanism causes rapid species loss. In fragmented landscapes the colonization rate is lower, and it is difficult for a new species to establish in an already occupied patch. So, here dominant species cannot easily take over patches occupied by other species and higher diversity is maintained for a longer time. These results suggest that fragmented landscapes have benefits for species conservation previously unrecognized by the landscape ecology and policy community. When species interactions are important, landscapes with a low fragmentation level can be better for species conservation than well-connected landscapes. Moreover, our results indicate that metapopulation based landscape evaluation tools may overestimate the value of connectivity and should be replaced by more realistic meta-community based tools.

Population models, in particular individual-based models (IBMs), are becoming increasingly important in chemical risk assessment. They can be used to assess recovery of spatially structured populations after chemical exposure that varies in time and space. The authors used an IBM coupled to a toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic model, the threshold damage model (TDM), to assess recovery times for 4 aquatic organisms, after insecticide application, in a nonseasonal environment and in 3 spatial settings (pond, stream, and ditch). The species had different life histories (e.g., voltinism, reproductive capacity, mobility). Exposure was derived from a pesticide fate model, following standard European Union scenarios. The results of the IBM-TDM were compared with results from simpler models: one in which exposure was linked to effects by means of concentration-effect relationships (IBM-CE) and one in which the IBM was replaced by a nonspatial, logistic growth model (logistic). For the first, exposure was based on peak concentrations only; for the second, exposure was spatially averaged as well. By using comparisons between models of different complexity and species with different life histories, the authors obtained an understanding of the role spatial processes play in recovery and the conditions under which the full time-varying exposure needs to be considered. The logistic model, which is amenable to an analytic approach, provided additional insights into the sensitivity of recovery times to density dependence and spatial dimensions., (© 2014 SETAC.)

The impact of silver nanoparticles (AgNP; at 0 mg Ag/kg, 1.5 mg Ag/kg, 15.4 mg Ag/kg, and 154 mg Ag/kg soil) and silver nitrate (AgNO3 ; 15.4 mg Ag/kg soil) on earthworms, Lumbricus rubellus, was assessed. A 4-wk exposure to the highest AgNP treatment reduced growth and reproduction compared with the control. Silver nitrate (AgNO3 ) exposure also impaired reproduction, but not as much as the highest AgNP treatment. Long-term exposure to the highest AgNP treatment caused complete juvenile mortality. All AgNP treatments induced tissue pathology. Population modeling demonstrated reduced population growth rates for the AgNP and AgNO3 treatments, and no population growth at the highest AgNP treatment because of juvenile mortality. Analysis of AgNP treated soil samples revealed that single AgNP and AgNP clusters were present in the soil, and that the total Ag in soil porewater remained high throughout the long-term experiment. In addition, immune cells (coelomocytes) of earthworms showed sensitivity to both AgNP and AgNO3 in vitro. Overall, the present study indicates that AgNP exposure may affect earthworm populations and that the exposure may be prolonged because of the release of a dissolved Ag fraction to soil porewater., (© 2013 SETAC.)

Effects of C60 nanoparticles (nominal concentrations 0, 15.4 and 154 mg/kg soil) on mortality, growth and reproduction of Lumbricus rubellus earthworms were assessed. C60 exposure had a significant effect on cocoon production, juvenile growth rate and mortality. These endpoints were used to model effects on the population level. This demonstrated reduced population growth rate with increasing C60 concentrations. Furthermore, a shift in stage structure was shown for C60 exposed populations, i.e. a larger proportion of juveniles. This result implies that the lower juvenile growth rate due to exposure to C60 resulted in a larger proportion of juveniles, despite increased mortality among juveniles. Overall, this study indicates that C60 exposure may seriously affect earthworm populations. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that juveniles were more sensitive to C60 exposure than adults., (Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Whereas current chemical risk assessment (RA) schemes within the European Union (EU) focus mainly on toxicity and bioaccumulation of chemicals in individual organisms, most protection goals aim at preserving populations of nontarget organisms rather than individuals. Ecological models are tools rarely recommended in official technical documents on RA of chemicals, but are widely used by researchers to assess risks to populations, communities and ecosystems. Their great advantage is the relatively straightforward integration of the sensitivity of species to chemicals, the mode of action and fate in the environment of toxicants, life-history traits of the species of concern, and landscape features. To promote the usage of ecological models in regulatory risk assessment, this study tries to establish whether existing, published ecological modeling studies have addressed or have the potential to address the protection aims and requirements of the chemical directives of the EU. We reviewed 148 publications, and evaluated and analyzed them in a database according to defined criteria. Published models were also classified in terms of 5 areas where their application would be most useful for chemical RA. All potential application areas are well represented in the published literature. Most models were developed to estimate population-level responses on the basis of individual effects, followed by recovery process assessment, both in individuals and at the level of metapopulations. We provide case studies for each of the proposed areas of ecological model application. The lack of clarity about protection goals in legislative documents made it impossible to establish a direct link between modeling studies and protection goals. Because most of the models reviewed here were not developed for regulatory risk assessment, there is great potential and a variety of ecological models in the published literature., ((c) 2010 SETAC.)

In the present study we present a population model (Metapopulation model for Assessing Spatial and Temporal Effects of Pesticides [MASTEP]) describing the effects on and recovery of the waterlouse Asellus aquaticus after exposure to a fast-acting, nonpersistent insecticide as a result of spray drift in pond, ditch, and stream scenarios. The model used the spatial and temporal distribution of the exposure in different treatment conditions as an input parameter. A dose-response relation derived from a hypothetical mesocosm study was used to link the exposure with the effects. The modeled landscape was represented as a lattice of 1- by 1-m cells. The model included processes of mortality of A. aquaticus, life history, random walk between cells, density dependence of population regulation, and, in the case of the stream scenario, medium-distance drift of A. aquaticus due to flow. All parameter estimates were based on expert judgment and the results of a thorough review of published information on the ecology of A. aquaticus. In the treated part of the water body, the ditch scenario proved to be the worst-case situation, due to the absence of drift of A. aquaticus. Effects in the pond scenario were smaller because the pond was exposed from one side, allowing migration from the other, less contaminated side. The results of the stream scenario showed the importance of including drift for the population recovery in the 100-m stretch of the stream that was treated. It should be noted, however, that the inclusion of drift had a negligible impact on numbers in the stream as a whole (600 m).