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Groundwater is the most ubiquitous source of liquid freshwater globally, yet its role in supporting diverse ecosystems is rarely acknowledged1,2. However, the location and extent of groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) are unknown in many geographies, and protection measures are lacking1,3. Here, we map GDEs at high-resolution (roughly 30 m) and find them present on more than one-third of global drylands analysed, including important global biodiversity hotspots4. GDEs are more extensive and contiguous in landscapes dominated by pastoralism with lower rates of groundwater depletion, suggesting that many GDEs are likely to have already been lost due to water and land use practices. Nevertheless, 53% of GDEs exist within regions showing declining groundwater trends, which highlights the urgent need to protect GDEs from the threat of groundwater depletion. However, we found that only 21% of GDEs exist on protected lands or in jurisdictions with sustainable groundwater management policies, invoking a call to action to protect these vital ecosystems. Furthermore, we examine the linkage of GDEs with cultural and socio-economic factors in the Greater Sahel region, where GDEs play an essential role in supporting biodiversity and rural livelihoods, to explore other means for protection of GDEs in politically unstable regions. Our GDE map provides critical information for prioritizing and developing policies and protection mechanisms across various local, regional or international scales to safeguard these important ecosystems and the societies dependent on them.

Climate change‐induced shifts in snow storage and snowmelt patterns pose risks for adverse impacts to people, the environment, and irrigated agriculture. Existing research primarily focuses on evaluating these risks to irrigated agriculture at large scales, overlooking the role of local context in shaping risk dynamics. Consequently, many "at‐risk" areas lack insight into how adaptation strategies for managing risk through water supply augmentation or water conservation vary across contexts and over time. To address this gap, we develop a comprehensive index for evaluating irrigated agriculture's risk and adaptation potential to changes in snow at local scales and apply it throughout the western US. Results confirm trends toward escalating risk for changes in snow storage and snowmelt patterns over the century. However, substantial heterogeneity in the extent and drivers of risk exists due to variability in localized interactions between declines in water supply (approximately −9% ± 13% by 2100) and increased agricultural demand (approximately 7% ± 5% by 2100). Despite an existing focus on supply augmentation as a critical adaptation strategy to reduce risk, we show its effectiveness diminishes for many areas over time, declining to an average of −54% of historical augmentation potential by 2100. Conserving water through historical changes in crop acreage and type emerges as a more stable adaptation measure, reducing demand by 7%–8% regardless of time. While particularly relevant for higher elevation, less intensive agricultural settings in snowmelt‐dependent regions, findings underscore the need for strategies that support local‐scale, context‐appropriate adaptation to effectively manage escalating risk as snow changes. Plain Language Summary: Climate change‐induced shifts in snow storage and snowmelt patterns threaten water supplies for irrigated agriculture, necessitating adaptation. In agriculture, adaptation requires balancing water supply and demand locally, which is often overlooked in larger‐scale analyses. We develop a framework for evaluating risk and adaptation at local scales in the agricultural sector and apply it to the western US, which is broadly at risk for adverse effects (i.e., physical harm, economic losses, and socio‐cultural damage) if water demand cannot be met. Changing snow dynamics negatively impact many local areas over time, although impacts can often be reduced through supply augmentation and water conservation. While the degree of risk and the effectiveness of these adaptation strategies vary across regions and time, increasing demand and supply volatility diminishes opportunities for supply augmentation. This trend underscores the importance of supporting context‐appropriate adaptations for agricultural communities facing increased risk to their water supplies. Key Points: Changes to snow storage and release patterns pose localized and heterogeneous risks to irrigated agriculture, which accelerate in the futurePotential to manage risk from less snow by augmenting water storage is limited by water supply‐demand imbalances in many locations over timeConserving water by reducing demand could buffer irrigated agriculture against increased risk even as augmentation potential diminishes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most conservation planning to date has focused on protecting today's biodiversity with the assumption that it will be tomorrow's biodiversity. However, modern climate change has already resulted in distributional shifts of some species and is projected to result in many more shifts in the coming decades. As species redistribute and biotic communities reorganize, conservation plans based on current patterns of biodiversity may fail to adequately protect species in the future. One approach for addressing this issue is to focus on conserving a range of abiotic conditions in the conservation-planning process. By doing so, it may be possible to conserve an abiotically diverse "stage" upon which evolution will play out and support many actors (biodiversity). We reviewed the fundamental underpinnings of the concept of conserving the abiotic stage, starting with the early observations of von Humboldt, who mapped the concordance of abiotic conditions and vegetation, and progressing to the concept of the ecological niche. We discuss challenges posed by issues of spatial and temporal scale, the role of biotic drivers of species distributions, and latitudinal and topographic variation in relationships between climate and landform. For example, abiotic conditions are not static, but change through time-albeit at different and often relatively slow rates. In some places, biotic interactions play a substantial role in structuring patterns of biodiversity, meaning that patterns of biodiversity may be less tightly linked to the abiotic stage. Furthermore, abiotic drivers of biodiversity can change with latitude and topographic position, meaning that the abiotic stage may need to be defined differently in different places. We conclude that protecting a diversity of abiotic conditions will likely best conserve biodiversity into the future in places where abiotic drivers of species distributions are strong relative to biotic drivers, where the diversity of abiotic settings will be conserved through time, and where connectivity allows for movement among areas providing different abiotic conditions.

Increased atmospheric evaporative demand has important implications for humans and ecosystems in water-scarce lands. While temperature plays a significant role in driving evaporative demand and its trend, other climate variables are also influential and their contributions to recent trends in evaporative demand are unknown. We address this gap with an assessment of recent (1980-2020) trends in annual reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and its drivers across the continental United States based on five gridded datasets. In doing so, we characterize the structural uncertainty of ETo trends and decompose the relative influences of temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, and humidity. Results highlight large and robust changes in ETo across much of the western United States, centered on the Rio Grande region where ETo increased 135-235 mm during 1980-2020. The largest uncertainties in ETo trends are in the central and eastern United States and surrounding the Upper Colorado River. Trend decomposition highlights the strong and widespread influence of temperature, which contributes to 57% of observed ETo trends, on average. ETo increases are mitigated by increases in specific humidity in non-water-limited regions, while small decreases in specific humidity and increases in wind speed and solar radiation magnify ETo increases across the West. Our results show increases in ETo across the West that are already emerging outside the range of variability observed 20-40 years ago. Our results suggest that twenty-first-century land and water managers need to plan for an already increasing influence of evaporative demand on water availability and wildfire risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conservation practitioners have long recognized ecological connectivity as a global priority for preserving biodiversity and ecosystem function. In the early years of conservation science, ecologists extended principles of island biogeography to assess connectivity based on source patch proximity and other metrics derived from binary maps of habitat. From 2006 to 2008, the late Brad McRae introduced circuit theory as an alternative approach to model gene flow and the dispersal or movement routes of organisms. He posited concepts and metrics from electrical circuit theory as a robust way to quantify movement across multiple possible paths in a landscape, not just a single least‐cost path or corridor. Circuit theory offers many theoretical, conceptual, and practical linkages to conservation science. We reviewed 459 recent studies citing circuit theory or the open‐source software Circuitscape. We focused on applications of circuit theory to the science and practice of connectivity conservation, including topics in landscape and population genetics, movement and dispersal paths of organisms, anthropogenic barriers to connectivity, fire behavior, water flow, and ecosystem services. Circuit theory is likely to have an effect on conservation science and practitioners through improved insights into landscape dynamics, animal movement, and habitat‐use studies and through the development of new software tools for data analysis and visualization. The influence of circuit theory on conservation comes from the theoretical basis and elegance of the approach and the powerful collaborations and active user community that have emerged. Circuit theory provides a springboard for ecological understanding and will remain an important conservation tool for researchers and practitioners around the globe. Article impact statement: Uses of circuit theory to understand connectivity have had a durable and global impact on conservation science and practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under rapid landscape change, there is a significant need to expand and connect protected areas (PAs) to prevent further loss of biodiversity and preserve ecological functions across broad geographies. We used a model of landscape resistance and electronic circuit theory to estimate patterns of ecological flow among existing PAs in the western United States. We applied these results to areas previously identified as having high conservation value to distinguish those best positioned to maintain and enhance ecological connectivity and integrity. We found that current flow centrality was highest and effective resistance lowest in areas that spanned the border between southern Oregon and Idaho, and in northern Arizona and central Utah. Compared to other federal jurisdictions, Bureau of Land Management lands contributed most to ecological connectivity, forming 'connective tissue' among existing PAs. Our models and maps can inform new conservation strategies and critical land allocation decisions, within or among jurisdictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To assess how montane meadow vegetation recovered after a wildfire that occurred in Yosemite National Park, CA in 1996, Google Earth Engine image processing was applied to leverage the entire Landsat Thematic Mapper archive from 1985 to 2012. Vegetation greenness (normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)) was summarized every 16 days across the 28-year Landsat time series for 26 meadows. Disturbance event detection was hindered by the subtle influence of low-severity fire on meadow vegetation. A hard break (August 1996) was identified corresponding to the Ackerson Fire, and monthly composites were used to compare NDVI values and NDVI trends within burned and unburned meadows before, immediately after, and continuously for more than a decade following the fire date. Results indicate that NDVI values were significantly lower at 95% confidence level for burned meadows following the fire date, yet not significantly lower at 95% confidence level in the unburned meadows. Burned meadows continued to exhibit lower monthly NDVI in the dormant season through 2012. Over the entire monitoring period, the negative-trending, dormant season NDVI slopes in the burned meadows were also significantly lower than unburned meadows at 90% confidence level. Lower than average NDVI values and slopes in the dormant season compared to unburned meadows, coupled with photographic evidence, strongly suggest that evergreen vegetation was removed from the periphery of some meadows after the fire. These analyses provide insight into how satellite imagery can be used to monitor low-severity fire effects on meadow vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Key to understanding the implications of climate and land use change on biodiversity and natural resources is to incorporate the physiographic platform on which changes in ecological systems unfold. Here, we advance a detailed classification and high-resolution map of physiography, built by combining landforms and lithology (soil parent material) at multiple spatial scales. We used only relatively static abiotic variables (i.e., excluded climatic and biotic factors) to prevent confounding current ecological patterns and processes with enduring landscape features, and to make the physiographic classification more interpretable for climate adaptation planning. We generated novel spatial databases for 15 landform and 269 physiographic types across the conterminous United States of America. We examined their potential use by natural resource managers by placing them within a contemporary climate change adaptation framework, and found our physiographic databases could play key roles in four of seven general adaptation strategies. We also calculated correlations with common empirical measures of biodiversity to examine the degree to which the physiographic setting explains various aspects of current biodiversity patterns. Additionally, we evaluated the relationship between landform diversity and measures of climate change to explore how changes may unfold across a geophysical template. We found landform types are particularly sensitive to spatial scale, and so we recommend using high-resolution datasets when possible, as well as generating metrics using multiple neighborhood sizes to both minimize and characterize potential unknown biases. We illustrate how our work can inform current strategies for climate change adaptation. The analytical framework and classification of landforms and parent material are easily extendable to other geographies and may be used to promote climate change adaptation in other settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of nonlinear, sudden responses of ecosystems or species to environmental change has engendered significant interest in the past two decades. Many reviews and theoretical papers have addressed alternative states or stable states, regime shifts, tipping points and phase shifts, but the empirical evidence for these phenomena, which we refer to as stark changes, has not been evaluated in estuaries and nearshore marine ecosystems. We developed standard definitions for these phenomena and examined the functional forms of ecological responses to environmental pressures (i.e. proximate influences on ecosystem state). We searched for publications related to estuaries and nearshore marine ecosystems that included common descriptors of stark change in their keywords. Our search yielded 376 papers, of which we retained 98 that met four criteria: (1) claimed a stepped biological change; (2) inferred change from empirical data; (3) addressed changes that occurred in one or more semi-enclosed, tidally influenced ecosystems; and (4) described a connection to long-term patterns of ecological change. Although there were many instances of changes in ecological states, most were not stark changes. Evidence generally was not derived from time-series data, and many studies inferred temporal change from spatial differences. We describe the eight studies that provided some evidence of stark changes in ecosystem state. We suggest that compelling evidence of stark changes that can be related to pressures requires concurrent time-series data on the ecological response and pressures that were claimed to induce the stark changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reestablishing cool-season ( C3) grass communities on low elevation rangelands of the Colorado Plateau is notoriously difficult, raising questions about the viability of restoring native species and continuing to actively graze these landscapes. We conducted a seeding experiment on an arid (15.4 cm rain/year), historically heavily-grazed rangeland in Northern Arizona to test the effects of seeding technique and simulated seasonal climate scenarios on germination and recruitment of four species of native, cool-season bunchgrasses: Achnatherum hymenoides, Hesperostipa comata, Poa secunda, and Elymus elymoides. Initial results indicated that C3 grasses germinated significantly more in drill-seeded treatments under simulated high precipitation years than in other treatment types. Five years post-treatment, P. secunda and E. elymoides were not observed but simulated drill-seeded treatments, had significantly higher densities of A. hymenoides and H. comata recruits relative to most other treatment types. Simulated drill seeding also increased soil disturbance which increased the establishment of the invasive weed Salsola tragus in year 1, but not thereafter. Although it appears critical to coordinate effective seeding techniques with high winter-spring precipitation, predicting such events may not be possible at some sites, suggesting that seeding low elevation, arid rangelands of the Colorado Plateau may not always be realistic under a future climate that is drier and less predictable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dryland riparian areas are under increasing stress due to expanding human water demands and a warming climate. Quantifying responses of dryland riparian vegetation to these pressures is complicated by high climatic variability, which can create strong, transient changes in vegetation vigor that could mask other disturbance events. In this study, we utilize a 34-year archive of Landsat satellite data to (1) quantify the strength and timescales of vegetation responses to interannual variability in drought status and (2) isolate and remove this influence to assess resultant trends in vegetation vigor for riparian areas across the state of Nevada, the driest state in the USA. Correlations between annual late-summer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were calculated across a range of time periods (varying timing and durations) for all riparian pixels within each of the 45 ecoregions, and the variability of these values across the study area is shown. We then applied a novel drought adjustment method that used the strongest SPEI–NDVI timescale relationships for each ecoregion to remove the influence of interannual drought status. Our key result is a 30 m resolution map of drought-adjusted riparian NDVI trends (1985–2018). We highlight and describe locations where impacts of invasive species biocontrol, mine water management, agriculture, changing water levels, and fire are readily visualized with our results. We found more negatively trending riparian areas in association with wide valley bottoms, low-intensity agricultural land uses, and private land ownerships and more positive trends in association with narrow drainages, public lands, and surrounding perennial water bodies (an indication of declining water levels allowing increased vegetative cover). The drought-adjusted NDVI improved the statistical significance of trend estimates, thereby improving the ability to detect such changes. Results from this study provide insight into the strength and timescales of riparian vegetation responses to drought and can provide important information for managing riparian areas within the study area. The novel approach to drought adjustment is readily transferrable to other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conservation of montane meadows is a high priority for land and water managers given their critical role in buffering the effects of climate variability and their vulnerability to increasing temperatures and evaporative demands. Recent advances in cloud computing have provided new opportunities to examine ecological responses to climate variability over the past few decades and at large spatial scales. In this study, we characterized the sensitivities (magnitude and direction of the slope) of meadow vegetation responses to interannual variations in climate. We calculated sensitivity as the regression slope between a 31‐year (1985–2016) time series of Landsat‐derived vegetation indices characterizing late‐season vegetation vigour and water balance variables from the Basin Characterization Model. We identified April 1 snowpack as the climate variable the majority of meadows were most sensitive to. We assessed how vegetation sensitivities to snowpack varied with hydrogeomorphic context (e.g., climate, geology, soils, watershed geometry, and land cover) across the Sierra Nevada mountain range using factor analysis to reduce the dimensionality of the hydrogeomorphic data and multiple linear regression to model sensitivity responses. We found that meadow sensitivities to snowpack varied with long‐term average meadow climate, indicators of watershed subsurface water storage capacity, and indicators of meadow vegetation composition. Alpine and subalpine meadows with high average annual precipitation but limited catchment subsurface storage exhibited the largest sensitivities. Our results provide a novel regional perspective on spatial patterns of meadow sensitivities to climate variability and the landscape‐scale hydrogeomorphic factors that influence late‐season water availability in meadow ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With ongoing global change, there is an urgent need to expand existing networks of important conservation areas around the world. In the western United States, vast areas of public land, including those administered by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), present substantial conservation opportunities. For 11 contiguous western states, we used a novel multiple-criteria analysis to model and map contiguous areas of roadless BLM land that possessed important ecological indicators of high biodiversity, resilience to climate change, and landscape connectivity. Specifically, we leveraged available spatial datasets to implement a systematic and statistically robust analysis of seven key indicators at three different spatial scales, and to identify the locations of potential conservation priority areas (CPAs) across 294,274 km 2 of roadless BLM land. Within this extent, and based on conservative thresholds in our results, we identified 43,417 km 2 of land with relatively high conservation value and 117 unique CPAs totaling 6291 km 2 . Most CPA lands were located in Utah, Colorado, Arizona, Oregon, and Nevada. Overall, CPAs had higher species richness, vegetation community diversity, topographic complexity, and surface water availability than existing BLM protected areas. CPAs often corresponded with locations known to have important wilderness characteristics or were adjacent to established areas of ecological, social, or cultural importance. These CPAs represent a diverse set of places that can be used by multiple stakeholders in ongoing or future landscape conservation and special designation efforts in BLM and adjacent ownerships. Our methodological framework and novel weighting approach can accommodate a wide range of input variables and is readily applicable to other jurisdictions and regions within the U.S. and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]