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This paper proposes a morphoevolutionary model for western Sicily. Sicily is a chain–foredeep–foreland system still being built, with tectonic activity involving uplift which tends to create new relief. To reconstruct the morphoevolutionary model, geological, and geomorphological studies were done on the basis of field survey and aerial photographic interpretation. The collected data show large areas characterized by specific geological, geomorphological, and topographical settings with rocks, landforms, and landscapes progressively older from south to north Sicily. The achieved results display: (1) gradual emersion of new areas due to uplift, its interaction with the Quaternary glacio-eustatic oscillations of the sea level, and the following production of a flight of stair-steps of uplifted marine terraces in southern Sicily, which migrates progressively upward and inwards; in response to the uplift (2) triggering of down-cutting processes that gradually dismantle the oldest terraces; (3) competition between uplift and down-cutting processes, which is responsible for the genesis of river valleys and isolated rounded hills in central Sicily; (4) continuous deepening over time that results in the exhumation of older and more resistant rocks in northern Sicily, where the higher heights of Sicily are realized and the older forms are retained; (5) extensional tectonic event in the northern end of Sicily, that produces the collapse of large blocks drowned in the Tyrrhenian Sea and sealed by coastal-marine deposits during the Calabrian stage; (6) trigger of uplift again in the previously subsiding blocks and its interaction with coastal processes and sea level fluctuations, which produce successions of marine terraces during the Middle–Upper Pleistocene stages.

In landslide susceptibility modeling, the selection of the mapping units is a very relevant topic both in terms of geomorphological adequacy and suitability of the models and final maps. In this paper, a test to integrate pixels and slope units is presented. MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines) modeling was applied to assess landslide susceptibility based on a 12 predictors and a 1608 cases database. A pixel-based model was prepared and the scores zoned into 10 different types of slope units, obtained by differently combining two half-basin (HB) and four landform classification (LCL) coverages. The predictive performance of the 10 models were then compared to select the best performing one, whose prediction image was finally modified to consider also the propagation stage. The results attest integrating HB with LCL as more performing than using simple HB classification, with a very limited loss in predictive performance with respect to the pixel-based model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large deep-seated gravitational slope deformation (DsGSD) are slope instability phenomena affecting high relief-energy hillslopes and characterized by a high degree of complexity, enhanced also by wideness of the affected area and lithological heterogeneity. A combined approach based on different remote survey methodologies is herein presented with the aim of characterizing one of the most relevant DsGSDs in Sicily (Italy). The Scopello landslide involves the external margin of an overthrust plane, where a rigid carbonate tectonic unit overlies a ductile clayey substratum. The evidence of structural discontinuities crossing the rock masses and of unstable rock mass portions were pointed out by IRT, whose results were combined with the analysis of morphological features retrieved from a DTM, highlighting the presence of regional systems controlling the rock fracturing. Three GNSS surveys have been carried out in 2004 and 2005 on a 27-vertex geodetic network, attesting up to 20cm deformations caused by the triggering of landslides in the substratum. DInSAR results, obtained from the processing and interpretation of ENVISAT and Cosmo-SkyMed images, both in ascending and descending geometry for the time span 2002-2018, allowed evaluating the displacement rates over the area, highlighting that the movement is still active in its upper sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The results of a geomorphological study carried out in the urban area of Palermo are summarized in a thematic map. Field survey, analysis of aerial photographs and topographic maps, consultation of historical documents and maps, stratigraphic and topographic reconstruction from numerous wells and subsoil data, and bibliographic search were performed, in order to display the geomorphological changes produced by man over time in a densely populated area and to define the Anthropocene of the study area. Palermo town rises along large marine terrace surfaces cut by small river valleys and bordered by wide degraded and abandoned coastal cliffs. Over the last 2700 years, this area was affected by remarkable man-made changes to topographic surface and underground, exposing large areas of the city to hydraulic, sinkhole, and landslide risks, and increasing the levels of seismic susceptibility. In light of these results, the produced map is useful for urban planning studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban-geomorphology studies in historical cities provide a significant contribution towards the broad definition of the Anthropocene, perhaps even including its consideration as a new unit of geological time. Specific methodological approaches to recognize and map landforms in urban environments, where human-induced geomorphic processes have often overcome the natural ones, are proposed. This paper reports the results from, and comparison of, studies conducted in coastal historical cities facing the core of the Mediterranean Sea – that is, Genoa, Rome, Naples, Palermo (Italy) and Patras (Greece). Their settlements were facilitated by similar climatic and geographical contexts, with high grounds functional for defence, as well as by the availability of rocks useful as construction materials, which were excavated both in opencast and underground quarries. Over centuries, urbanization has also required the levelling of relief, which was performed by the excavation of heights, filling of depressions and by slope terracing. Consequently, highly modified hydrographic networks, whose streams were dammed, diverted, modified in a culvert or simply buried, characterize the selected cities. Their urban growth, which has been driven by maritime commercial activities, has determined anthropogenic coastal progradation through port and defence or waterfront works. Aggradation of artificial ground has also occurred as a consequence of repeated destruction because of both human and natural events, and subsequent reconstruction even over ruins, buried depressions and shallow cavities. As a result, the selected cities represent anthropogenic landscapes that have been predominately shaped by several human-driven processes, sometimes over centuries. Each landform represents the current result, often from multiple activities with opposing geomorphic effects. Beyond academic progress, we believe that detecting and mapping these landforms and processes should be compulsory, even in risk-assessment urban planning, because of the increase of both hazards and vulnerability as a result of climate-change-induced extreme events and extensive urbanization, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the studies of landslide susceptibility assessment, which have been developed in recent years, statistical methods have increasingly been applied. Among all, the BLR (Binary Logistic Regression) certainly finds a more extensive application while MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines), despite the good performance and the innovation of the strategies of analysis, only recently began to be employed as a statistical tool for predicting landslide occurrence. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the predictive performance and identify possible drawbacks of the two statistical techniques mentioned above, focusing in particular on the prediction of debris flows. To this aim, an inventory of debris flows triggered by the passage of the hurricane IDA and the low-pressure system associated with it 96E, on 7th and 8th November 2009, in an area of about 26 km2 close to the Caldera Ilopango, El Salvador (CA), was employed. Two validation strategies have been applied to both statistical techniques, thus obtaining four models - BLR (I), MARS (I), BLR (II) and MARS (II) - to be compared in pairs. Model performance was assessed in terms of AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve), Sensitivity, Specificity, Positive Prediction Value and Negative Prediction Value. Moreover, to evaluate the robustness of the modelling procedure, 50 replicates were created for each model and standard deviation was calculated for each of them. The results show that both techniques allow for obtaining good or excellent performances so that it is not possible to define one of the two techniques as absolutely better. However, the validation procedure reveals slightly better performance of the MARS models, with greater sensitivity and greater discrimination among True Negatives (TNs). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this work, we assessed gully erosion susceptibility in two adjacent cultivated catchments of Sicily (Italy) by employing multivariate adaptive regression splines and a set of geo‐environmental variables. To explore the influence of hydrological connectivity on gully occurrence, we measured the changes of performance occurred when adding one by one nine predictors reflecting terrain connectivity to a base model that included contributing area and slope gradient. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under the ROC curve were used to evaluate model performance. Gully predictive models were trained in both the catchments and submitted to internal (in the calibration catchment) and external (in the adjacent one) validation, using samples extracted both from all cells of the catchments and only from cells located along flow concentration axes. Model evaluation on the entire catchments shows outstanding predictive performance of models that either include or do not include the predictors selected to reflect potential hydrological connectivity. Conversely, area under the ROC curve values measured on flow concentration axes reveals that almost all the additional predictors improve the performance of the base model, but the most enhanced increase of accuracy occurs when upstream drainage density of each landscape position is included as predictor of gully occurrence. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The present paper describes a multidisciplinary approach to the evaluation of a seismically triggered landslide that occurred in the Cerda area (Italy) on September 6, 2002, about 1 h after an earthquake took place in the south Tyrrhenian Sea. The study was focused on an analysis of the role of the seismic input in triggering the landslide, in view of the evidence that no other mass movement was recorded in the adjacent areas despite geological and geomorphological spatial homogeneity. The studied area is located on a slope of the western flank of the Fiume Imera Settentrionale (Northern Sicily), which is made up of clayey–arenitic rocks. The slope inclines gently but is not uniform due to fluvial, gravitative, and rainwash processes. Field data dealing with global positioning system (GPS), geology, geomorphology, geophysics (vertical electrical sounding, or VES), and geochemistry (soil gas fluxes and composition) were acquired and analysed in order to investigate the cause–effect relationships between the earthquake and the mass movement. The GPS survey allowed us to map the ground failures that have also been classified on the basis of their kinematical meaning (i.e., compressive, distensive, or transcurrent structures). The geological analysis revealed outcropping rocks and tectonic structures. The geomorphologic survey highlighted the presence of preexisting landslide bodies. The geophysical survey detected a buried surface located at a depth of about 100 m . Finally, the geochemical survey showed that the gas released from the displaced mass came from a shallow depth and was not related to any active fault system. The abovementioned information allowed us to interpret the landslide event as a partial reactivation of a preexisting landslide body that was triggered by the earthquake. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Malta and Sicily, which lie at the centre of the Mediterranean Sea, share a long history and have unique geological and geomorphological features which make them attractive destinations for geotourism. In the framework of an international research project, a study for the identification, selection and assessment of the rich geological heritage of Malta and Sicily was carried out, aiming to create a geosite network between these islands. Based on the experience and outputs achieved in previous investigations on geoheritage assessment carried out in various morpho-climatic contexts, an integrated methodology was applied for the selection, numerical assessment and ranking of geosites. The selection phase was based on three main criteria—scientific, additional and use values—and led to the establishment of a list of 42 geosites (20 in Malta and 22 in Sicily). Besides being spectacular and attractive for tourists, these sites represent the main geomorphological contexts and the various stages of regional morphogenesis of the study areas. The sites selected were assessed quantitatively and ranked according to management and tourism criteria. The results provide both the necessary basic knowledge for joint conservation actions and policies in Malta and Sicily and the elements for creating a link between Malta and Sicily through geoheritage appraisal and tourism development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This research aims at characterizing susceptibility conditions to gully erosion by means of GIS and multivariate statistical analysis. The study area is a 9.5km2 river catchment in central-northern Sicily, where agriculture activities are limited by intense erosion. By means of field surveys and interpretation of aerial images, we prepared a digital map of the spatial distribution of 260 gullies in the study area. In addition, from available thematic maps, a 5m cell size digital elevation model and field checks, we derived 27 environmental attributes that describe the variability of lithology, land use, topography and road position. These attributes were selected for their potential influence on erosion processes, while the dependent variable was given by presence or absence of gullies within two different types of mapping units: 5m grid cells and slope units (average size=2.66ha). The functional relationships between gully occurrence and the controlling factors were obtained from forward stepwise logistic regression to calculate the probability to host a gully for each mapping unit. In order to train and test the predictive models, three calibration and three validation subsets, of both grid cells and slope units, were randomly selected. Results of validation, based on ROC (receiving operating characteristic) curves, attest for acceptable to excellent accuracies of the models, showing better predictive skill and more stable performance of the susceptibility model based on grid cells. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This work deals with an integrated geomorphological and chemical–physical study of “calanchi” landforms in two sites (Ottosalme and Catalfimo) of NW Sicily (southern Italy), developed on dominant silty-clay deposits. The calanchi fronts are characterized by different morphological features and dominant geomorphic processes. Sharp knife-edged ridges and concentrated water runoff dominate at Ottosalme, and smoother landforms affected by mass movements (mud flows and translational slides) prevail at Catalfimo. We focused on some geochemical and physical parameters such as pH, total dissolved salts, sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), porosity, plastic and liquid limits as possible causes of the above differences, with special emphasis on their role in discriminating the behavior of peculiar microforms, such as a weathered outer crust and the corresponding inner massive portion (unweathered substrate). Our results show that the main chemical–physical features of calanchi morphologies and microforms often display no clear correlations with respect to those reported in the existing literature, pointing to a higher complexity of patterns and behaviors. In particular, all samples consist of dispersive material (SAR values>10), but a more plastic and liquid behavior at Catalfimo can explain a higher occurrence of landslides and smoother morphology than at Ottosalme. Higher SAR values at Ottosalme well explain the dominance of concentrated water erosion. The chemical behavior of the studied microforms is better described by pH being alkaline with higher values in the inner substrate than the outer crust, and appears to minimize the effects of all other parameters and their responses to other external controlling factors. Lower SAR values in the crust suggest that clay dispersivity is not the prominent factor controlling its surface detachment and mobility downslope, which is more likely promoted by its higher porosity and consequent water absorption than the inner portion, with changes in the saturation state, shear strength and water pressure. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]