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ObjectiveTo quantify and communicate risk equivalencies for alcohol-and tobacco-attributable mortality by comparing per standard drinks consumed to per number of cigarettes smoked in Canada.MethodsAlcohol-and tobacco-attributable premature deaths (≤75 years of age) and years of life lost (YLL) were estimated using a lifetime risk modeling approach. Alcohol-attributable death statistics were obtained from the 2023 Canadian Guidance on Alcohol and Health data source. Tobacco-attributable death statistics were derived from the Mortality Population Risk Tool (MPoRT) model.ResultsThe risk of alcohol use on premature death and YLL increased non-linearly with the number of drinks consumed, while the risk for tobacco use on these two measures increased linearly with the number of cigarettes smoked. Males who consumed 5 drinks/day—a standard drink contains 13.45 grams of alcohol in Canada—had an equivalent risk as smoking 4.9 cigarettes/day (when modeling for premature death) and 5.1 cigarettes/day (when modeling for YLL). Females who consumed 5 drinks/day experienced an equivalent risk as smoking 4.2 cigarettes/day for premature deaths and YLL. At all levels of alcohol consumption females and males who consumed

Recent evidence suggests there may be no safe level of alcohol use as even low levels are associated with increased risk for harm. However, the magnitude of the population-level health burden from lower levels of alcohol use is poorly understood. The objective was to estimate the distribution of alcohol-attributable healthcare encounters (emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations) across the population of alcohol users aged 15+ in Ontario, Canada. Using the International Model of Alcohol Harms and Policies (InterMAHP) tool, wholly and partially alcohol-attributable healthcare encounters were estimated across alcohol users: (1) former (no past-year use); (2) low volume (≤67.3 g ethanol/week); (3) medium volume (>67.3–134.5 g ethanol/week for women and >67.3–201.8 g ethanol/week for men); and (4) high volume (>134.5 g ethanol/week for women and >201.8 g ethanol/week for men). The alcohol-attributable healthcare burden was distributed across the population of alcohol users. A small population of high volume users (23% of men, 13% of women) were estimated to have contributed to the greatest proportion of alcohol-attributable healthcare encounters, particularly among men (men: 65% of ED visits and 71% of hospitalizations, women: 49% of ED visits and 50% of hospitalizations). The 71% of women low and medium volumes users were estimated to have contributed to a substantial proportion of alcohol-attributable healthcare encounters (47% of ED visits and 34% of hospitalizations). Findings provide support for universal alcohol policies (i.e., delivered to the entire population) for reducing population-level alcohol-attributable harm in addition to targeted policies for high-risk users.

Abstract Background Over the past decade, rates of drug poisoning deaths have increased dramatically in Canada. Current evidence suggests that the non-medical use of synthetic opioids, stimulants and patterns of polysubstance use are major factors contributing to this increase. Methods Counts of substance poisoning deaths involving alcohol, opioids, other central nervous system (CNS) depressants, cocaine, and CNS stimulants excluding cocaine, were acquired from the Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database (CVSD) for the years 2014 to 2017. We used joinpoint regression analysis and the Cochrane-Armitage trend test for proportions to examine changes over time in crude mortality rates and proportions of poisoning deaths involving more than one substance. Results Between 2014 and 2017, the rate of substance poisoning deaths in Canada almost doubled from 6.4 to 11.5 deaths per 100,000 population (Average Annual Percent Change, AAPC: 23%, p

Abstract Background Government alcohol monopolies were created in North America and Scandinavia to limit health and social problems. The Swedish monopoly, Systembolaget, reports to a health ministry and controls the sale of all alcoholic beverages with > 3.5% alcohol/volume for off-premise consumption, within a public health mandate. Elsewhere, alcohol monopolies are being dismantled with evidence of increased consumption and harms. We describe innovative modelling techniques to estimate health outcomes in scenarios involving Systembolaget being replaced by 1) privately owned liquor stores, or 2) alcohol sales in grocery stores. The methods employed can be applied in other jurisdictions and for other policy changes. Methods Impacts of the privatisation scenarios on pricing, outlet density, trading hours, advertising and marketing were estimated based on Swedish expert opinion and published evidence. Systematic reviews were conducted to estimate impacts on alcohol consumption in each scenario. Two methods were applied to estimate harm impacts: (i) alcohol attributable morbidity and mortality were estimated utilising the International Model of Alcohol Harms and Policies (InterMAHP); (ii) ARIMA methods to estimate the relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and specific types of alcohol-related mortality and crime. Results Replacing government stores with private liquor stores (Scenario 1) led to a 20.0% (95% CI, 15.3–24.7) increase in per capita consumption. Replacement with grocery stores (Scenario 2) led to a 31.2% (25.1–37.3%) increase. With InterMAHP there were 763 or + 47% (35–59%) and 1234 or + 76% (60–92%) more deaths per year, for Scenarios 1 and 2 respectively. With ARIMA, there were 850 (334–1444) more deaths per year in Scenario 1 and 1418 more in Scenario 2 (543–2505). InterMAHP also estimated 10,859 or + 29% (22–34%) and 16,118 or + 42% (35–49%) additional hospital stays per year respectively. Conclusions There would be substantial adverse consequences for public health and safety were Systembolaget to be privatised. We demonstrate a new combined approach for estimating the impact of alcohol policies on consumption and, using two alternative methods, alcohol-attributable harm. This approach could be readily adapted to other policies and settings. We note the limitation that some significant sources of uncertainty in the estimates of harm impacts were not modelled.